The 4 1/2-Year Martian Cycle
Carol S. Mull - Predicting the Dow.
In: Joan McEvers (Ed. 1989) - Financial Astrology for the 1990s.
Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called the magnetosphere. |
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (2023): The Seasonal Distribution of Geomagnetic Disturbances. |
Neutral Signals: There have been 19 neutral signals. The following year was positive 12 times (63%), compared to 73% win rate for “all years.” The overall average and median returns were 6.0% and 7.1%. But among the “up” years, the average and median gains were 14.4% and 9.4%, while the “down” years’ average and median losses were -8.5% and -7.8%. There were several big up years (1995, 1996, 1998, 2003), and two big down years (1973, 1977), so even if there is a neutral signal, there’s still a decent chance the following 12 months will venture far from its January 19 print.
Bearish Signals: There have been 16 bearish signals. Only 6 (38%) of the following years posted a gain while 10 posted losses – and 6 of those 10 posted double digit losses. The overall average and median returns were -3.6% and -6.0%. The “up” years posted average and median gains of 14.6% and 15.5%, while the “down” years posted average and median losses of -14.6% and -12.9%. So despite the low win rate, when the market does well, it has the ability to do very well, as was the case this past year.
[...] When a bullish signal is in play, odds heavily favor solid gains over the following 12 months, but when there’s a bearish signal, odds favor a down year with a relatively big loss. But regardless of the signal, “up” years tend to be very good.
Jack Gillen (2002) - There are only two statistics related to the Sun falling into the group of the 70 - 100 percent accuracy. They were both activated in the United States chart on July 4, 1776, and the natal Sun is at 13-degrees of Cancer. On July 5th of every year the Sun transits 13-degrees of Cancer. This cycle has an orb of 13 - 22 degrees of Cancer, and the transit dates would be from July 7 - 15 each year. The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher on the 15th then on the 7th, and from the period of 1987 - 2001 this trend was 86.6 percent accurate with an overall percentage of 72.8.
The next statistic has been 80 percent accurate over the past 100 years, and is based on the two degrees of Venus in the United States chart to the opposition of Capricorn at two degrees, and is dominant from December 24th - 31st. This is a long position, therefore the DJIA will be higher on the 31st than on the 24th. Since the period of 1900 - 2000, this pattern has only been wrong 20 times and this was in 1911, 1925, 1926, 1930, 1937, 1943, 1947, 1948, 1953, 1966, 1968, 1978, 1979, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1996, and 1998. Therefore, going long on December 24th, I know that I have an 80 percent chance of being correct, that on December 31st the market will be higher at the close.
Source: The Leuthold Group |
Feb 15 - May 10 (Source: Nautilus Research) |
First Quarter 2017 | Presidential Cycle + Seasonal Pattern + Decennial Cycle of the DJIA (HERE) |
Credits: Seasonal Charts |
93 Trading Days ≈ 135 Calendar Days ≈ 19.3 Weeks ≈ 4.5 Months ≈ 0.37 Years. Regardless of the election outcome, in November and December the S&P 500 advances 72.2% of the time. (Source: Jeff Hirsch - see also HERE) |
Stan Harley: November 8 (Tue) = Cycle Low in Stocks + Crude Oil (HERE) |
Source: Jeff Hirsch's Almanac Trader |
Source: Nautilus Research |
Source: Nautilus Research |
Seasonal Cycle Jan 01 - May 31 (1900-2015) = +2.82% 6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = +3.49% 4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - May 31 = -0.97% |
Seasonal Cycle (1900-2015) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.99% 4th Year of the Presidential Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.52% 6th Year of the Decennial Cycle (2016) Jan 01 - Dec 31 = +6.98% |