Gold vs Pluto Retrograde | Sun 000° + 180° Pluto

Martin Armstrong (May 31, 2016): "All the big manipulations have ALWAYS been to the UPSIDE, not to the downside. It is absurd to
pretend that gold is suppressed perpetually so they can make money in some strange way."
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

China's Supergrowth Likely To Run Five More Years

Credits: World Bank ׀ Enlarge

Brad DeLong (Dec 01, 2015) - China has hitherto kept growing and growing rapidly, even without anything a North Atlantic economic historian would see as the rule of law. It has had its own system of what we might call industrial neofeudalism. Instead of the king's judges enforcing property and contract rights, Chinese entrepreneurs have protection via their fealty to connection groups within the party that others do not wish to cross. Historically, the Hamiltonian strategy of moving farmers to factories and setting them to work using imported manufacturing technology is the only reliably successful development strategy because manufacturing technology is the only one that can be reliably imported. You buy the machines to make the products, you buy the blueprints for the products to be made and, with a few engineering coaches hired from abroad - and you are in business. 

Start of Second Sino-Japanese War 1937 + 51.6 Years =
Tiananmen Square US Color Revolution Attempt June 4, 1989
People's Republic of China established Oct 1, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021
Mao Zedong meets Richard Nixon Feb 21, 1972 + 51.6 Years = 2023
Deng Xiaoping starts economic reforms 1978 + 51.6 Years = 2029

But that requires that people outside your country buy your low-priced manufactures. And the world has reached a point at which demand for manufactured goods is no longer highly elastic [...] After the 2015 stock market crash, China is likely to have another five, maybe ten, years of very healthy growth. The party can redistribute income from the rich to the middle and the poor and from the coasts to the interior. Mammoth demand from an enriched urban middle class and peasantry can provide business for all of China's factories that otherwise would be selling into an export market with lower-than-expected demand elasticity. The interior can be brought up to the manufacturing productivity standards of the coast (see also HERE)

Martin Armstrong's Political Economy | 72 Year Cycle of Political Change

"Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been
uncanny in predicting political change." (recent interview HERE)

Martin Armstrong (Jan 8, 2013) - Where does the Political-Economy Model stand right now for the West? The answer to that question is the epic turn appears to be 2016. Bretton Woods took place in 1944. Adding 72 years brings us to 2016. This model has been uncanny in predicting political change incorporating the same frequency for volatility. The Russian Revolution of 1917 was right on target with the fall of the Berlin Wall 72 years later in 1989. This strongly warns that this wave in the Economic Confidence Model due to peak 2015.75, will be extremely important. This is the time frame we have been looking at for the past 30 years for the next Sovereign Debt Crisis. Certain trends simply cannot be sustained beyond 72 years without change. 

"High Treason" - Federal Republic of Germany established May 23, 1949 + 72 Years = 2021

This time that change is coming by dragging the politicians by the hair cave-man style. How intelligent people just cannot see the problem with borrowing perpetually and never having any intention of paying off the debt, it’s simply unimaginable. The previous cycle turning in 1872 and that led to what is known as the “long depression” of the 19th century everyone concedes lasted for 26 years. This is why the real estate model is 78 years. It too is closely aligned with political turmoil that always brings structural change [...] Consequently, we are looking at 2014 for the beginning of a rise in separatism and civil unrest around the West. Then we see 2016 and the start of a nasty economic decline. We could see things get real bad during the 2016-2020 phase. That may actually be the bottom in the European economic meltdown (see also HERE)

Martin Armstrong (Oct 17, 2015) - Each country has its own unique cycle. There was a very major turning point in France that nearly became a revolution [in May 1968]. Even Charles de Gaulle secretly left France for a few hours after fearing for his life and a revolution [...] The French socialist state is now collapsing under Hollande. Civil unrest will erupt moving into 2017 and then there is the risk of another major cultural revolution as the youth do not share the same values as the socialistic elites who are in control. We will see that risk erupt by 2020 or 51.6 years from the May 1968 cultural revolution (see also HERE)

Martin Armstrong on the DJIA

Martin Armstrong (Sep 23, 2015) - [...] Yes, if this week simply closes on the Dow below 16280, then we can be looking at that slingshot move I have warned about where in one year, we have a crash and a swing to the upside to new highs (see also HERE + HERE).

[...] Remember, if the stocks decline into 2015.75, that should push more and more capital into government bonds completing the BUBBLE. This is by no means a BUBBLE in stocks, commodities, or the dollar. This is a peak in GOVERNMENT. This is not even a Kondratieff Wave based upon commodities. This is the 309.6 year cycle in government and unfortunately, the other side of 2015.75 is not looking very pretty. This not about just the collapse of Europe. This is the collapse of Western forms of government that aids the shift in the financial capital of world to China by 2032 (how to read the above Forecast Array = HERE + HERE).

Financial Fascism - The Elimination of Physical Currency

“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of
state and corporate power.” ― Benito Mussolini, 1932

Paul Joseph Watson (Aug 28, 2015) - The Financial Times has published an anonymous article which calls for the abolition of cash in order to give central banks and governments more power. Entitled "The case for retiring another ‘barbarous relic’", the article laments the fact that people are stockpiling cash in anticipation of another economic collapse, a factor which is causing, “a lot of distortion to the economic system.”

“The existence of cash — a bearer instrument with a zero interest rate — limits central banks’ ability to stimulate a depressed economy. The worry is that people will change their deposits for cash if a central bank moves rates into negative territory,” states the article. Complaining that cash cannot be tracked and traced, the writer argues that its abolition would, “make life easier for a government set on squeezing the informal economy out of existence.” Abolishing cash would also give governments more power to lift taxes directly from people’s bank accounts, the author argues, noting how “Value added tax, for example, could be automatically levied — and reimbursed — in real time on transactions between liable bank accounts.”

Totalitarianism of the European Financial Oligarchy - Votes change nothing!

The writer also calls for punishing people who use cash by making users “pay for the privilege of anonymity” so they will, “remain affected by monetary policy.” Dated bank notes would lose their value over time, while people would also be charged by banks for swapping electronic reserves for physical cash and vice versa. The article echoes an argument made by Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who has called for high denomination banks notes such as the €100 and €500 notes to be phased out of existence. Rogoff attended a meeting in London earlier this year where he met representatives from the Federal Reserve, the ECB as well as participants from the Swiss and Danish central banks. The issue of banning cash was at the forefront of the agenda. Last year, Rogoff also called for “abolishing physical currency” in order to stop “tax evasion and illegal activity” as well as preventing people from withdrawing money when interest rates are close to zero. 

The agenda to ban cash was also discussed at this year’s secretive Bilderberg Group meeting, which was attended by the Financial Times’ chief economics commentator Martin Wolf. Former Bank of England economist Jim Leaviss penned an article for the London Telegraph earlier this year in which he said a cashless society would only be achieved by “forcing everyone to spend only by electronic means from an account held at a government-run bank,” which would be, “monitored, or even directly controlled by the government.” In the UK, banks are treating the withdrawal of cash in amounts as low as £5,000 as a suspicious activity, while in France, citizens will be banned from making cash payments over €1,000 euros from Tuesday onwards. The withdrawal and deposit of cash over the amount of €1,000 euros will also be subject to ID verification. “There is no more egregious anti-liberty economic policy imaginable than banning cash,” writes Michael Krieger. “Of course, if cash were involuntarily “ended,” there would be a surge in demand for physical gold and silver, which would then necessitate a ban on those items. Then the cycle of economic and financial tyranny would be complete, and crawling our way out of it, nearly impossible.”

DJIA vs Lunar North Node in Zodiac Signs | Louise McWhirter

The mathematically calculated Lunar Nodes are sensitive points in space where the Moon’s orbit around the Earth
intersects the ecliptic - the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The Ascending Node is where the Moon crosses from
south of the ecliptic to north of the ecliptic. The Descending Node is where it crosses from north of the ecliptic
to south of the ecliptic. In Western astrology the Ascending and Descending Nodes are known as the "North Node"
and the "South Node". Only the North Node is usually marked in horoscopes, as the South Node is by definition at
the opposite point in the chart. In Vedic astrology, the North and South Nodes are called Rahu and Ketu respectively,
and both are marked in the chart. Nodes always move retrograde and are considered natural malefics. Astrologically
the Nodes are thought to powerfully influencing both the affairs of nations and of people. Eclipses occur only near
the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon.
Lunar Eclipses occur when passage coincides with the Full Moon. The plane of the lunar orbit precesses in space
and hence the Lunar Nodes precess around the ecliptic, completing a revolution (called a Draconic or Nodal Period,
the period of nutation) in 6798.383 days or 18.612 years. The Nodes need 1.55 years to pass through one zodiac sign.

In her book 'Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting' published almost 80 years ago, financial astrologer Louise McWhirter described a theory of the business cycle. She claimed the low point of the depression was reached in summer of 1933 (Lunar North Node in Aquarius) and predicted the next peak in economic activity would occur in November 1942 (NN in Leo). Her prediction for recovery in 1942 coincided with the massive economic stimulus spending set in motion by the build-up for World War II. Looking at 100 years of stock market prices she consistently found the North Node in the sign of Aquarius during periods of low economic activity. At the halfway point in the 18.6-year cycle, the North Node is moving into the sign of Leo, where economic high points have historically been recorded. After this, the long-term trend moves lower as the North Node slowly and systematically makes its way back to the sign of Aquarius, where the cycle begins anew (see also HERE). 

Enlarge

Using McWhirter’s method, one would have expected the lowest economic period between January 2008 and August 2009 (NN in Aquarius), and then gradually improving from below normal levels to normal levels between August 2009 and August 2012 (NN in Capricorn, Sagittarius and Scorpio). The period between September 2012 and February 2014 was projected to be an above normal period for economic performance (unfortunately the red line of the averaged composite in the above chart doesn't clearly reflect this pattern). 

Though a considerable market correction between now and Q1 2016 is likely (HERE & HERE), a larger ensuing double-dip recession wouldn’t fit into the McWhirter-pattern (HERE). Instead the general upward trend should continue into the major peak-out between May 2017 and November 2018 (NN in Leo - HERE), followed by collapsing and declining markets into the 2020s (HERE).

The Fractal Design of Time | Martin A. Armstrong

 

 

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.

• The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
• It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
• This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
• The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
• The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.

The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.

Game Over 2015.75 | Martin Armstrong

"Schaeuble wants a Grexit to put the fear of God into the French!" HERE & HERE

Martin Armstrong: "This is the start of BIG BANG and as the rest of Western nations
raise taxes, the economy is about to fall off a cliff and they bring economic activity
into a swan-dive. They will, as always, blame the private sector. We can see this
decline coming as long-term bonds crashed from May, liquidity has collapsed, and there
is excess cash in the short-end keeping interest rates low ensuring we will see not
just municipalities decline into a debt crisis like Detroit, but we are staring in the
eyes of death insofar as pensions are concerned. Politicians are good for only (1) lies,
(2) corruption, (3) debt, (4) taxes, and (5) death and war."

US Stocks May Double into 2017 | Martin Armstrong

HERE
This is in line with the Lunar Node Projection for the US-Economy:
HERE & HERE 

Martin Armstrong (06/18/2015) - 18,500 [in the DJIA] has capped the US stock market for right now, so we're not breaking out. We'll get through that. The next level is 23,000 [after a consolidation in fall 2015]. If we get through that area ... then you're looking at the final phase transition that will probably take us into 2017 where, yes, the stock market can double.

[...] With bond yields pushed down to all-time lows, bond prices are now at all-time highs. As rates eventually start to move up, large investors will try to prevent losses by shifting into other areas with US assets, particularly stocks and real estate, serving as the most likely destination.

The Forecaster | Martin Armstrong

This is a feature documentary about Martin Armstrong a financial mastermind who used the number pi in the nineties to predict economic turning points with precision. He was named economist of the decade. The Japanese just called him Mr. YEN. When the FBI stormed his offices in 1999 forcing him to hand over his secret model a few days later he was incarcerated without a trial. He was released from prison in 2011 and agreed to be the focal point of this movie - a piece on the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are facing. 

Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy. More HERE & HERE & HERE

HERE

Martin A. Armstrong (1989 + 2011): Long Wave Theory - Kondratieff Wave Already Bottomed?

The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028 | Martin A. Armstrong

We have now crossed that peak in the current wave — 2007.15 (February 27th, 2007). We can see that the Economic Confidence Model projects out beyond my life expectancy and it will function long after I am gone as it did long before I was born. These 8.6 year waves that reflect the Business Cycle are calculated by taking the per cent of 365 days for that year. For example, 2015.75 produces (.75 x 365) that is 273.75 days into that year = October 1st, 2015. The low for this current economic debacle should be 2011.45 = June 13th, 2011.

 

The minor mid wave turning points break down as the first leg being 2.15 years or a quarter of the 8.6 year wave. The next quarter wave is typically broken into half again creating two 1.075 year weaves. We can see that in the current wave, the mid-wave turning points were 1908.225 (March 23, 2008) and 2009.3 (March 19th, 2009). Typically, these waves do not produce specific turning points to the day as is the case at the major turning points. This is due to the fact that internally there is yet another layer of activity, the 8.6 month cycle that constitute 6 weeks within each leg of the 8.6 year cycle. Again we see the structure following groupings of 6 units. This 8.6 month level of activity constitutes 37.33 weeks. There is yet another layer beneath this calculated in 8.6 week intervals, followed by still another 8.6 days, hours, minutes and believe it or not seconds.

 

2002.850  =  2000-Nov-06 (Mon)  =  Major Low
2005.000  =  2005-Jan-01 (Sat)  =  High
2006.075  =  2006-Jan-28 (Sat)  =  Low
2007.150  =  2007-Feb-24 (Sat)  =  Major High
2008.225  =  2008-Mar-23 (Sun)  =  Low
2009.300  =  2009-Apr-20 (Mon)  =  High
2011.450  =  2011-Jun-14 (Tue)  =  Major Low
2013.600  =  2013-Aug-08 (Thu)  =  High
2014.675  =  2014-Sep-04 (Thu)  =  Low
2015.750  =  2015-Oct-01 (Thu)  =  Major High
2016.825  =  2016-Oct-28 (Fri)  =  Low
2017.900  =  2017-Nov-25 (Sat)  =  High
2020.050  =  2020-Jan-19 (Sun)  =  Major Low
2022.200  =  2022-Mar-15 (Tue)  =  High
2023.275  =  2023-Apr-11 (Tue)  =  Low
2024.350  =  2024-May-07 (Tue)  =  Major High
2025.425  =  2025-Jun-05 (Thu)  =  Low
2026.500  =  2026-Jul-02 (Thu)  =  High
2028.650  =  2028-Aug-25 (Fri)  =  Major Low