Thursday, February 26, 2015

V for Varoufakis

In order to prepare the German taxpayers for yet another bailout [HERE] of the Bank of England, Barclays Bank PLC, HSBC Holdings, BNP Paribas SA, Credit Agricole, Natixis SA, Societe Generale SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG et al. the German government propaganda TV-channel ZDF recently launched an extraordinary heavy metal video [HERE] about Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis:

First they ignore you,
then they ridicule you,
then they fight you,
and then you win.
"[...] He puts the 'Hell' in Hellenic and wants to take our pride! [...] He’s the lost son of Zeus with a heart made of stone! Go, take all our savings. But, please, leave us alone! His looks burn like fire, his body screams of sex. Our Minister of Finance doesn't even have legs! [...] His leather jacket is made of skin from German shepherd puppies. He feasts on human babies! [...] He doesn’t negotiate, he simply kicks ass. He wants us on our knees! And we cannot resist him because he is so totally, 100 percent, awesome! Yanis Varoufakis! [...] Maverick Varoufakis! Everytime he smiles, an angel dies [...] Oh! Those merciless eyes! [...] Take him off of us! [...] The Walking Debt! [...] Help! Leave us alone!" [HERE]

Etc., etc. Kinda funny? Ironic? Satire? Absurd? Meaningless comedy? Smoke grenade? Distortion of facts? Demagogic trash? Sick? Brainwashing at its finest? Maybe a bit of everything. The quintessence of this video is: The 'Greeks' are shameless, impudent, lazy bastards. But there is no alternative: By all means 80 million German taxpayers just need to preserve this wonderful regime of corporate welfare and socialism for the rich established by the European financial oligarchy. The 'Germans' just need to do exactly this. Due to their original sin and collective guilt. Inevitably. Destiny [HERE]

Whatsoever, the message of the 'real' Varoufakis is quite different: HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE

HERE

Monday, February 9, 2015

SPX vs IMF

[...] I have determined the major and minor time factors which repeat in the history of nations, men and markets [...] In making my predictions I use geometry and mathematics, just as the astronomer does, based on immutable laws.

[...] My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences. History repeats itself. That is what I have always contended, that in order to know and predict the future of anything you only have to look up what has happened in the past and get a correct base or starting point.

[...] In making my calculations on the stock market, or any future event, I get the past history and find out what cycle we are in and then predict the curve for the future, which is a repetition of past market movements [...] harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future.


W.D. Gann (1927): The Tunnel Thru The Air

Sunday, February 1, 2015

SoLunar Map for February - March 2015

Usually a HIGH in this SoLunar Map is a LOW in the Stock Market and vice versa.
However, inversions occur.
Look back for clues at previous turns and what happended in the market 118 CD [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD [= 1 lunar year] and 1,416 CD [= 4 lunar years] ago.

Upcoming turn-days are:
Feb 07 (Sat), Feb 11 (Wed), Feb 15 (Sun), Feb 18 (Wed), Feb 22 (Sun), Feb 26 (Thu), Mar 02 (Mon),
Mar 05 (Thu), Mar 09 (Mon), Mar 13 (Fri), Mar 16 (Mon), Mar 20 (Fri), Mar 23 (Mon), Mar 27 (Fri), Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat).
See also HERE

Sunday, January 25, 2015

60 Year Cycle in SPX (Similarity = 92%)

Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.
Calculated and charted with
Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution
.
For the methodology see HERE
Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.

W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE

Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Despite Sanctions Russia offers Freetrade Agreement to EU

Cooperation, Stagnation or Rivalry?
In an interview with the EUobserver (January 2, 2015) Vladimir Chizhov, the ambassador of the Russian Federation to the European Union, presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States (TTIP) and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US: "Do you believe it is wise to spend so much political energy on a free trade zone with the USA while you have more natural partners at your side, closer to home? [...] We might think of a free trade zone encompassing all of the interested parties in Eurasia […] Our idea is to start official contacts between the EU and the EAEU as soon as possible. 

Putin to Merkel: "No matter what you do, you will be fucked anyway!"
[...] German chancellor Angela Merkel talked about this not long ago. The EU sanctions on Russia are not a hindrance […] I think that common sense advises us to explore the possibility of establishing a common economic space in the Eurasian region, including the focus countries of the Eastern Partnership [an EU policy on closer ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine]."

Crude Oil breaking below 17-Year Support

Source: Chart of the Day
On January 7 the price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was a mere USD 48. The long-term trend of West Texas Intermediate crude that has largely traded within the confines of an upward sloping trend channel since the late 1990s. However, with the dramatic 55% plunge that began back in mid-2014, crude oil has now clearly broken below support (green line) of its 17-year trend channel - a significant turn of events (see chart at left).

Raj Times and Cycles pointed to a 50 Month Cycle due in June 2015, and the bias would be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in February 2016, which should be a major change in trend (see chart below). 

However, after a possible bounce back to USD 70, geopolitical circumstances could drive prices for WTI further down during the next two years to test the 2008 low at around USD 30 or even the 1998 low at around USD 10.

Source: Raj Times and Cycles




















Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure not only on Russia, Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela but also on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers' debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. Analysts believe North American shale needs to sell at USD 60-100 per barrel to break even on the billions of debt accrued by the energy companies. Indebted companies, fearing bankruptcy, may therefore be forced to keep selling oil, even at a loss (Source: WSJ).

Monday, December 15, 2014

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE
www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Tom McClellan: Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.


2014 is the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and mid-term years are historically some of the worst. However, 2015 - the 3rd year - is the pre-election year and historically the best of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle. Additionally the 5th year of the Decennial Cycle promises to be a strong up year for stocks with a top in late July or early August 2015 (see also HERE).

www.TheChartStore.com

Oscar Carboni (12/15/2014): The Repricing of Crude Oil vs Dollar Index + Stocks keep Rising = No Crash!

The seasonal pattern of Crude Oil itself has a bottoming period between early December and mid February 2015.

www.mrci.com



Monday, November 24, 2014

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015

This astro-forecasting tool was developed by Donald Bradley and published in 1947 in a booklet titled Stock Market Prediction. On the book-cover Bradley coined his tool the ‘Planetary Barometer’ and inside the book the ‘Siderograph’. Today it is simply called the ‘Bradley Index’. 






















There are two versions of the index, a geocentric and a heliocentric one. Both attempt to forecast major and minor changes in the trend in stock markets indices. The Bradley Indices do not forecast highs or lows. Simply changes in the trend or non-directional turning-points. Donald Bradley wrote: 
[...] There are many [other] cycles affecting man with causes outside our immediate world. Well known among these is the electromagnetic cycle in biology which is caused by the relationship of the sun and the moon. Even tadpoles are seriously affected by this soli-lunar cycle which incidentially proves the wisdom of the oft-ridiculed practice of planting under various circumstances of the moon in the sky. What stimulates and pacifies the pollywog stimulates and pacifies the human being periodically.
“[...] At no time must the reader gain the impression that a Siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages.
(See also HERE)

[Eastern Standard Time (EST) -0500 UTC] 

Geocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High
2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low
2015-04-25 (Sat) = High
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low
2015-05-10 (Sun) = High
2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High
2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low
2015-06-28 (Sun) = High
2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low
2015-07-23 (Thu) = High
2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High
2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low
2015-09-05 (Sat) = High
2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0
2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low
2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-11-08 (Sun) = High
2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0
2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low
2015-12-11 (Fri) = High
2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low
2015-12-25 (Fri) = High
2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High
2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low
 
Heliocentric Bradley Index 2015
2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low     
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High   
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low     
2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High  
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low    
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High     
2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low    
2015-04-24 (Fri) = High     
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low   
2015-05-11 (Mon) = High  
2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low   
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High   
2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low    
2015-06-27 (Sat) = High    
2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low     
2015-07-21 (Tue) = High   
2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low    
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High  
2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low    
2015-09-03 (Thu) = High   
2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low    
2015-09-29 (Tue) = High   
2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low    
2015-11-06 (Fri) = High
2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0     
2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low   
2015-12-12 (Sat) = High    
2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low   
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High  
2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low    
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices 2015
2014-11-20 (Thu) = Major Low (geo)
2014-11-22 (Sat) = Major Low (helio)   
2014-12-09 (Tue) = High (geo + helio)   
2014-12-26 (Fri) = Low (geo + helio)     
2015-02-10 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)
2015-02-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-03-04 (Wed) = High (helio)
2015-03-06 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-03-11 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-03-12 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-04-03 (Fri) = High (geo + helio)    
2015-04-12 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-04-14 (Tue) = Low (geo)
2015-04-24 (Fri) = High (helio)    
2015-04-25 (Sat) = High (geo)
2015-05-04 (Mon) = Low (geo + helio)  
2015-05-10 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-05-11 (Mon) = High (helio)
2015-05-20 (Wed) = Low (helio)  
2015-05-22 (Fri) = Low (geo)
2015-06-09 (Tue) = Major High (geo + helio)   
2015-06-20 (Sat) = Low (geo)
2015-06-21 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-06-27 (Sat) = High (helio)   
2015-06-28 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-07-16 (Thu) = Low (geo)
2015-07-17 (Fri) = Low (helio)    
2015-07-21 (Tue) = High (helio)  
2015-07-23 (Thu) = High (geo)
2015-07-29 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-07-30 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-08-03 (Mon) = High (geo + helio)  
2015-08-23 (Sun) = Low (helio)   
2015-08-27 (Thu) = Low (geo)
2015-09-03 (Thu) = High (helio)  
2015-09-05 (Sat) = High (geo)
2015-09-24 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-09-29 (Tue) = High (helio)  
2015-10-01 (Thu) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-10-08 (Thu) = Low (helio)   
2015-10-09 (Fri) = Low (geo)
2015-10-26 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-11-06 (Fri) = High (helio)
2015-11-08 (Sun) = High (geo)
2015-11-16 (Mon) = @ 0 (geo)
2015-11-17 (Tue) = @ 0 (helio)    
2015-11-25 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2015-12-07 (Mon) = Low (helio)  
2015-12-11 (Fri) = High (geo)
2015-12-12 (Sat) = High (helio)   
2015-12-20 (Sun) = Low (geo)
2015-12-25 (Fri) = High (geo)
2016-01-04 (Mon) = Low (helio)  
2016-01-06 (Wed) = Low (geo)
2016-01-13 (Wed) = High (geo + helio)  
2016-01-18 (Mon) = Low (geo)
2016-01-19 (Tue) = Low (helio)

Sunday, November 9, 2014

2015 - Presidential Cycle - Seasonal Cycle - Decennial Cycle of DJIA

HERE & HERE
Lance Roberts @ www.streettalklive.com
TheChartStore.com




























Since 1834 the U.S.-stock market has been positive 12 out of 18 times in the 4th year of every decade and the 5th year was by far the best year of the Decennial Pattern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average started in 1895 and since then 11 of the last 12 5th years were up and averaged a return of almost 22%. The exception from the pattern was 2005 when the DJIA lost 0.61%.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

AR12192 - The Biggest Sunspot in Two Solar Cycles

HERE
Measuring 130,000 kilometers wide, AR12192 is the biggest sunspot in two solar cycles. 

It first appeared on the Earth-facing side of the sun on October 16, 2014 and produced a X.1-class flare three days later. The active solar region already has produced 137 C and M-class flares including this X1 flare. AR 12192 rotated onto the far side of the sun on October 30, 2014. 

HERE



However as it evolves a new version of it rotating back into view in ten days. AR 12192 is also unusual in that it hasn't produced any noteworthy coronal mass ejections, which usually spit billions of tonnes of solar material into space. 
HERE


HERE

HERE

In the chart at left the current SC 24 is shown in red, the mean of the previous 23 cycles is depicted by the blue curve, and the current cycle SC 24 strongly resembles SC 1, which is shown by the black curve. The current cycle resembles SC 1, and should it continue to behave like SC 1, a trailing off of activity cannot be anticipated anytime soon. Indications, however, do point to a longer than normal cycle. 





























HERE










The variation in the Sun's motion about the Center of Mass is characterized by a periodicity of 178.770 years: Every 16 loops about the barycenter the Sun repeats a very similar path. The slight time derivative or torque to this 178.770 year cycle, a time dependant periodic function of +/- 1.05 years is called the torque cycle, determined by nine subsequent synodic periods of Jupiter and Saturn (9 * 19.858 years = 178.720 years) and used by Theodor Landscheidt to forecast sunspot cycles. The projection of this 178.72 Year Cycle (+/- 1.05 years) from the peak of SSC #8 in March 1837 suggests the peak of the current SSC #24 is still ahead of us and would occur in 2015-2016.
HERE
 

Thursday, October 16, 2014

About Living in Bananistan

Fed up: Ex-FAZ journalist Udo Ulfkotte about freedom and democracy in Germany (HERE)
The Allied Occupation of Germany began 69 years ago and has not yet ended. Foreign armies are still based on German soil and Europe's largest country still lacks a constitution and a peace treaty with the U.S. putting a formal end to the Second World War.

Some 52,000 U.S. military personnel are still permanently based in Germany and Britain also continues to base 30,000 troops and military equipment in the zone they formerly occupied. It is not uncommon to see British and American tanks in the streets of Germany. The country is littered with hundreds of U.S.-nukes and military bases, and became the hub for global NATO-aggression. Not only is Germany the second-biggest financial contributor to NATO and Israel. The energy and the media sector and many German DAX-companies are dominated by Anglo-American and Arabian investors. Occupying Germany enables the U.S. and the British to orchestrate European Union sanctions and phony policies for de-industrialization, clique cartelism, financial looting, and masochistic free trade agreements (TTIP, India-EU) instead of aiming for tangible progress and good neighborhood with Russia, the natural geopolitical partner of Europe.  

HERE
The UN Charter contains "enemy state clauses" (Articles 53 and 107), which were established because of Germany and still name it as the "enemy state." The reunified German nation, considered a modern European democracy, has no constitution other than the temporary Basic Law (Grundgesetz) originally written in 1948, under the guidance of the U.S. military occupation forces and originally meant only to apply to the western parts of Germany under U.S. control. The denomination 'Federal Republic of Germany' is misleading: 'West Germany' was 'federalized' into the occupation zones of the French, the British and the U.S., and has never been more than a banana republic. To the very day this Basic Law has not been ratified by any vote of the German people nor replaced by a constitution. As soon as the Russians pulled out their forces, 'East Germany' was simply absorbed and privatized among globalist oligarchs and the west-German ruling class. Along the way oppositional characters were scared, defamed, silenced, some killed. By the late 1990s the 'New Germany' was ready to perform as the 'locomotive' and paymaster of a European Union and NATO, both again more and more hostile to Russia.

In the 1950s the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), and the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) were established as extensions of the U.S. and British-intelligence agencies, and by law they follow their orders and 'share' all information with them. On behalf of their Anglo-American masters they survey media and editors, register money-transactions, corrupt the voting system and elections, select, promote, and dump politicians, scientists, and journalists. The way the 'German government' deals e.g. with the German Bundesbank's gold stolen by the New York Fed or with the industrial espionage and the uninterrupted spying of the NSA on the communication of 80 million Germans, perfectly illustrates the nature of the occupation-regime. Looking at the German foreign policy, so far there were also no attempts to regain full sovereignty. Regardless their party affiliation, puppets like Schäuble, von der Leyen, Steinmaier, Merkel or Gauck continue to participate as willing 'U.S.-partners' in virtually every lunacy and crime.