Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Cosmic Cluster Days for June - July 2015

Based on the assumption that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are somehow related to financial market movements,
these Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) were derived from a weighted composite index. Upcoming CCDs are:

May 27 (Wed) = major, May 29 (Fri) = minor, Jun 02 (Tue) = minor, Jun 05 (Fri) = minor, Jun 11 (Thu) = major, Jun 19 (Fri) = minor,
Jun 21 (Sun) = minor, Jun 22 (Mon) = minor, Jun 23 (Tue) = minor, Jun 26 (Fri) = major, Jul 05 (Sun) = major, Jul 06 (Mon) = major,
Jul 22 (Wed) = major, Aug 11 (Tue) = major
Previous CCDs are HERE

SoLunar Map for June - July 2015

More often than not a Low in this SoLunar Map is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days:
May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue), Jun 05 (Fri), Jun 09 (Tue), Jun 13 (Sat), Jun 16 (Tue), Jun 20 (Sat), Jun 24 (Wed), Jun 27 (Sat), Jul 01 (Wed),
Jul 05 (Sun), Jul 09 (Thu), Jul 12 (Sun), Jul 16 (Thu), Jul 20 (Mon), Jul 24 (Fri), Jul 27 (Mon), Jul 31 (Fri), Aug 03 (Mon).
Previous SoLunar Maps are HERE

Friday, May 22, 2015

“War is just a Racket” - The Memorial Day Hoax

Patriotic kitsch - the aesthetics of American exceptionalism - HERE
Paul Craig Roberts (May 21, 2015) - Memorial Day commemorates soldiers killed in war. We are told that the war dead died for us and our freedom. 

[...] Most American soldiers died fighting foes who posed no threat to the United States. Our soldiers died for secret agendas of which they knew nothing. Capitalists hid their self-interests behind the flag, and our boys died for the One Percent’s bottom line.

[...] We need a memorial day to commemorate the victims of neoliberal globalization. All of us are its victims, and in the end the capitalists also.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Sunday, May 17, 2015

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days

A Major Signal is triggered when the composite line breaks above the Average Cosmic Noise Channel; a Minor Signal when it breaks
to the downside. Both have equal forecasting capacities, but generate different sequences.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Is the Crude Oil Rally Doomed?

Frank Holmes - U.S. Global Investors (May 8, 2015) - This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices reached a 2015 high, rising above $60 before cooling to just below that. This marks the eighth straight week of gains. Investment banking advisory firm Evercore makes the case that the recent oil recovery is closely following the average trajectory of six previous cycles between 1986 and 2009. Although no one can predict the future with full certainty, this is indeed constructive for prices as well as the industry.

Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. The U.S. dollar, which has weighed heavily on commodities for around nine months, declined to its lowest point since mid-January. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil—not to mention gold, copper and other important commodities—much-needed breathing room.

The oil rig count continued to drop in April and is now at a five-year low. According to Baker Hughes, 976 rigs were still operating at the end of the month, down 11 percent from 1,100 in March and 47 percent from 1,835 in April 2014. Eleven closed this week alone. This spectacular plunge has had the obvious effect of curbing output and helping oil begin its recovery from a low of $44 per barrel in January. Production appears to have peaked in mid-March at 9.42 million barrels per day and is now showing signs of rolling over. 

A price reversal historically has occurred between six and nine months following a drop in the rig count. The number of rigs operating peaked in October and oil started to bottom in January.

Baker Hughes Oil rig count plunges to the lowest level since October 2010
The Saudis sent the market into a freefall in November when they decided to defend their market share
instead of propping up prices, and they show no sign of changing course.
The U.S. has almost 500 million barrels of crude oil in storage. That's by far the most oil in storage since record-keeping began in 1982.
Supplies have grown because of surging domestic production and restrictions on most crude exports.

"Brent Crude Oil price has most likely bottomed out!"
thinks Tiho of The Short Side Of Long

A sideways consolidation into late June is now likely.

Inflation-Adjusted Dow Up 130% From 2009 Low

Chart of the Day (May 13, 2015) - As the Dow trades approximately 1% below all-time record highs, this chart provides some perspective by illustrating the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900. There are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half after the dot-com peak of December 1999, the Dow is up a mere 12%. On the other hand, the inflation-adjusted Dow is now up a significant 130% from its financial crisis lows in 2009.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

NRT with Stable and High Dividend Yields

North European Oil Royalty Trust (NRT) is a grantor trust which, on behalf of the owners of beneficial interest in the Trust, holds royalty rights covering gas and oil production in certain concessions or leases in the Federal Republic of Germany. The rights are held under contracts with local German exploration and development subsidiaries of ExxonMobil Corp. (ExxonMobil) and the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies (full profile HERE). A royalty trust is a type of corporation, mostly in the United States or Canada, usually involved in oil and gas production or mining. However, unlike most corporations, its profits are not taxed at the corporate level provided a certain high percentage (e.g. 90%) of profits are distributed to shareholders as dividends. The dividends are then taxed as personal income.

NRT announced a quarterly distribution of $0.33 per unit for the second quarter of fiscal 2015, payable on May 27, 2015 to holders of record on May 15, 2015. This dividend works out to approximately 2.35%, so look for NRT to trade 2.35% lower when NRT shares open for trading on 5/13/15. $0.33 per unit is -5.7% decrease from prior dividend of $0.35, however it is a forward annual yield of about 9.50%. The above is the dividend history chart, showing historical dividends and can help in judging whether the most recent dividend from NRT is a reasonable expectation and likely to continue.

Seasonal Profile of Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures - Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of June 1, investors have benefited from a total return of 77.54% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.

Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of October 10 and a sell date of January 2, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 62.42% with positive results in 9 of those periods.

The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was -19.31%.

Friday, May 8, 2015

S&P500 vs Maximum Elongation of Mercury

See also HERE

Tom McClellan: Shifted Eurodollar COT points to SPX Major High in August

Tom McClellan (May 07, 2015): I do not know why it works to have the EuroDollars COT data shifted forward by a year to see what the SP500 will do.  But after seeing that it has worked for several years, at some point we stop wondering about the “why” question, and start to accept that there really is something working here.

I should emphasize that the relationship broke down during the Fed’s QE3, the $85 billion per month program of expanding the Fed’s balance sheet which started in September 2012 and then tapered down to nothing by October 2014.  During 2013 the once-nice leading indication seemed to be inverted for a while, and then the two plots got back into sync again starting in late 2013.  That was a frustrating time since I had come to trust its message so much when it was working well in 2011 and 2012. That just proves the point that no indicator is infallible, and one must continue to pay close attention to what is going on, just to make sure that everything is working as it is supposed to.

With the relationship back in sync now, it is appropriate to look ahead to a top due this summer, and some ugliness for stock prices this fall.  Ideally the top is due in early August, but there can be slight differences in the texture of the ED COT pattern and the actual behavior of the SP500. More HERE & HERE

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Martin Armstrong - The Forecaster

This is a feature documentary about Martin Armstrong a financial mastermind who used the number pi in the nineties to predict economic turning points with precision. He was named economist of the decade. The Japanese just called him Mr. YEN. When the FBI stormed his offices in 1999 forcing him to hand over his secret model a few days later he was incarcerated without a trial. He was released from prison in 2011 and agreed to be the focal point of this movie - a piece on the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are facing. 

Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy. More HERE & HERE & HERE


Wednesday, March 25, 2015

VIX vs Four Lunar Month Cycle

The projection of the 118 CD Cycle to a LOW in mid April contradicts the SoLunar Map.
According to the Delta Theory the upcoming 'red lunar cycle' is prone for inversions.
This may occur around the first lunar quarter (April 7).

W.D. Gann's Method of Timing with Solar Degrees

Around 1900 W.D. Gann developed a unique timing method not based on calendar days or trading days but on Solar Degrees (also known as Solar Degree Intervals, the movement of the Sun in one calendar day).

In the 1920s this became the first basic technique he taught his students: watch anniversary dates (360 solar degrees) with past market tops and bottoms for a change in trend. Gann also devised systems of counting off time in solar degrees from past market tops and bottoms in divisions of the year in halves, quarters, eighths and thirds (180, 90, 45 and 120 solar degrees). When clusters of time counts from past tops and bottoms highlighted a future date, that date was significant for a reversal of trend. Gann favored also numbers such 30, 45, 60, 90 etc. and square-numbers as 49, 144 and 216.

In 1909 he made his his famous and well documented wheat-call (HERE). He said, that if by the  end of the trading day of September 29th 1909, September wheat would not reach 1.20 $, then it would prove that there was something wrong with his method. On January 13,1909 wheat made a low at 930 $, on April 13 it reached a high at 1094 and reversed again into July 14 - both times 90 solar degrees apart. More info HERE & HERE & HERE

Calculated and charted with Gannalyst Pro

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

SoLunar Map for April - May 2015

More often than not a Low in this SoLunar Map is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days are:
Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat), Apr 07 (Tue), Apr 11 (Sat), Apr 15 (Wed), Apr 19 (Sun), Apr 22 (Wed), Apr 26 (Sun), Apr 29 (Wed),
May 04 (Mon), May 07 (Thu), May 10 (Sun), May 14 (Thu), May 18 (Mon), May 22 (Fri), May 25 (Mon), May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue). 

 The SoLunar Map for February - March 2015 is HERE

Monday, March 23, 2015