Wednesday, March 25, 2015

VIX vs Four Lunar Month Cycle


W.D. Gann's Method of Timing with Solar Degrees

Around 1900 W.D. Gann developed a unique timing method not based on calendar days or trading days but on Solar Degrees (also known as Solar Degree Intervals, the movement of the Sun in one calendar day).

In the 1920s this became the first basic technique he taught his students: watch anniversary dates (360 solar degrees) with past market tops and bottoms for a change in trend. Gann also devised systems of counting off time in solar degrees from past market tops and bottoms in divisions of the year in halves, quarters, eighths and thirds (180, 90, 45 and 120 solar degrees). When clusters of time counts from past tops and bottoms highlighted a future date, that date was significant for a reversal of trend. Gann favored also numbers such 30, 45, 60, 90 etc. and square-numbers as 49, 144 and 216.


In 1909 he made his his famous and well documented wheat-call (HERE). He said, that if by the  end of the trading day of September 29th 1909, September wheat would not reach 1.20 $, then it would prove that there was something wrong with his method. On January 13,1909 wheat made a low at 930 $, on April 13 it reached a high at 1094 and reversed again into July 14 - both times 90 solar degrees apart. More info HERE & HERE & HERE

Calculated and charted with Gannalyst Pro

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

SoLunar Map for April - May 2015

More often than not a Low in this SoLunar Map is a High in the Stock Market and vice versa. Inversions occur. Upcoming turn-days are:
Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat), Apr 07 (Tue), Apr 11 (Sat), Apr 15 (Wed), Apr 19 (Sun), Apr 22 (Wed), Apr 26 (Sun), Apr 29 (Wed),
May 04 (Mon), May 07 (Thu), May 10 (Sun), May 14 (Thu), May 18 (Mon), May 22 (Fri), May 25 (Mon), May 29 (Fri), Jun 02 (Tue). 


 The SoLunar Map for February - March 2015 is HERE
 



Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Keep Russia and Germany Separate and in Conflict - The Primordial Geopolitical Objective of the US since 1871


Plain and simple: HERE & HERE & HERE
In his speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, George Friedman, head of the private 'shadow CIA' Stratfor and spokesman of the Empire, outlined the prevention of a German-Russian alliance as the primordial geopolitical objective of the US since 1871. 

"The German Question is coming up again." Friedman's solution: Divide et impera. "Cynical, not moral. But it works!", says Friedman. Will it really work? Again?  For the third time within a century?

Largest Geomagnetic Disturbances during Solar Cycle 24

HERE & HERE & HERE
Yesterday 28 solar storm warnings were reported from satellites watching the sun - a very rare event in just one day (HERE). The most powerful solar storm of the current solar cycle is currently reverberating around the globe. Initially triggered by the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting our planet’s magnetosphere, a relatively mild geomagnetic storm erupted at around 04:30 UT, but it has since ramped-up to an impressive G4-class geomagnetic storm, priming high latitudes for some bright auroral displays. Further significant flare activity from Region 2297 is to be expected until it rotates off the visible disk on March 19th. This already caused the largest geomagnetic disturbances during the current solar cycle. 

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market, a 2003 study of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, notes the following: Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices.  

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the earth. Therefore, two days after a large solar flare we should see a drop in the stock market values for that day. More on the impact of such events on the financial markets and trading see also HERE.

Thursday, March 12, 2015

SPX vs Mercury





2014-11-01 (Sat) = MER max Elong W 18.7°
2014-12-08 (Mon) = MER 000 SUN
2015-01-14 (Wed) = MER max Elong E 18.9°
2015-01-30 (Fri) = MER 000 SUN
2015-02-24 (Tue) = MER max Elong W 26.8°
2015-04-09 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN
2015-05-06 (Wed) = MER max Elong E 21.2°
2015-05-30 (Sat) = MER 000 SUN
2015-06-24 (Wed) = MER max Elong W 22.5°
2015-07-23 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN
2015-09-04 (Fri) = MER max Elong E 27.1°
2015-09-30 (Wed) = MER 000 SUN
2015-10-15 (Thu) = MER max Elong W 18.1°
2015-11-17 (Tue) = MER 000 SUN
2015-12-28 (Mon) = MER max Elong E 19.7°
2016-01-14 (Thu) = MER 000 SUN
2016-02-06 (Sat) = MER max Elong W 25.6°

Thursday, February 26, 2015

V for Varoufakis

In order to prepare the German taxpayers for yet another bailout [HERE] of the Bank of England, Barclays Bank PLC, HSBC Holdings, BNP Paribas SA, Credit Agricole, Natixis SA, Societe Generale SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG et al. the German government propaganda TV-channel ZDF recently launched an extraordinary heavy metal video [HERE] about Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis:

First they ignore you,
then they ridicule you,
then they fight you,
and then you win.
"[...] He puts the 'Hell' in Hellenic and wants to take our pride! [...] He’s the lost son of Zeus with a heart made of stone! Go, take all our savings. But, please, leave us alone! His looks burn like fire, his body screams of sex. Our Minister of Finance doesn't even have legs! [...] His leather jacket is made of skin from German shepherd puppies. He feasts on human babies! [...] He doesn’t negotiate, he simply kicks ass. He wants us on our knees! And we cannot resist him because he is so totally, 100 percent, awesome! Yanis Varoufakis! [...] Maverick Varoufakis! Everytime he smiles, an angel dies [...] Oh! Those merciless eyes! [...] Take him off of us! [...] The Walking Debt! [...] Help! Leave us alone!" [HERE] Etc., etc.

Kinda funny? Ironic? Satire? Absurd? Meaningless comedy? Smoke grenade? Distortion of facts? Demagogic trash? Sick? Brainwashing at its finest? Maybe a bit of everything. The subtle quintessence of this video is: The 'Greeks' are shameless, impudent, lazy bastards. But there is no alternative: By all means 80 million German taxpayers just need to preserve this wonderful regime of corporate welfare and socialism for the rich established by the European financial oligarchy. The 'Germans' just need to do exactly this. Due to their original sin and collective guilt. Inevitably. Destiny. Bananistan [HERE]

Whatsoever, the message of the 'real' Varoufakis is quite different: HERE & HERE & HERE & HERE

HERE & HERE

Monday, February 9, 2015

SPX vs IMF

[...] I have determined the major and minor time factors which repeat in the history of nations, men and markets [...] In making my predictions I use geometry and mathematics, just as the astronomer does, based on immutable laws.

[...] My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences. History repeats itself. That is what I have always contended, that in order to know and predict the future of anything you only have to look up what has happened in the past and get a correct base or starting point.

[...] In making my calculations on the stock market, or any future event, I get the past history and find out what cycle we are in and then predict the curve for the future, which is a repetition of past market movements [...] harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future.


W.D. Gann (1927): The Tunnel Thru The Air

Sunday, February 1, 2015

SoLunar Map for February - March 2015

Usually a HIGH in this SoLunar Map is a LOW in the Stock Market and vice versa.
However, inversions occur.
Look back for clues at previous turns and what happended in the market 118 CD [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD [= 1 lunar year] and 1,416 CD [= 4 lunar years] ago.

Upcoming turn-days are:
Feb 07 (Sat), Feb 11 (Wed), Feb 15 (Sun), Feb 18 (Wed), Feb 22 (Sun), Feb 26 (Thu), Mar 02 (Mon),
Mar 05 (Thu), Mar 09 (Mon), Mar 13 (Fri), Mar 16 (Mon), Mar 20 (Fri), Mar 23 (Mon), Mar 27 (Fri), Mar 31 (Tue), Apr 04 (Sat).
See also HERE

Sunday, January 25, 2015

60 Year Cycle in SPX (Similarity = 92%)

Correlation of last 250 trading days with the SPX from Sep. 1954 to Sep. 1955.
Calculated and charted with
Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution
.
For the methodology see HERE
Source: Gann Global Financial, January 2015.

W.D. Gann (1936): Master Time Factor and Forecasting by Mathematical Rules, p. 218. See also HERE

Panic in the stockmarkets in fall 2015? See also HERE

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Despite Sanctions Russia offers Freetrade Agreement to EU

Cooperation, Stagnation or Rivalry?
In an interview with the EUobserver (January 2, 2015) Vladimir Chizhov, the ambassador of the Russian Federation to the European Union, presented a startling proposal to overcome the tensions with the EU: The EU should renounce the free trade agreement with the United States (TTIP) and enter into a partnership with the newly established Eurasian Economic Union instead. A free trade zone with the neighbors would make more sense than a deal with the US: "Do you believe it is wise to spend so much political energy on a free trade zone with the USA while you have more natural partners at your side, closer to home? [...] We might think of a free trade zone encompassing all of the interested parties in Eurasia […] Our idea is to start official contacts between the EU and the EAEU as soon as possible. 

Putin to Merkel: "No matter what you do, you will be fucked anyway!"
[...] German chancellor Angela Merkel talked about this not long ago. The EU sanctions on Russia are not a hindrance […] I think that common sense advises us to explore the possibility of establishing a common economic space in the Eurasian region, including the focus countries of the Eastern Partnership [an EU policy on closer ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine]."

Crude Oil breaking below 17-Year Support

Source: Chart of the Day
On January 7 the price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was a mere USD 48. The long-term trend of West Texas Intermediate crude that has largely traded within the confines of an upward sloping trend channel since the late 1990s. However, with the dramatic 55% plunge that began back in mid-2014, crude oil has now clearly broken below support (green line) of its 17-year trend channel - a significant turn of events (see chart at left).

Raj Times and Cycles pointed to a 50 Month Cycle due in June 2015, and the bias would be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in February 2016, which should be a major change in trend (see chart below). 

However, after a possible bounce back to USD 70, geopolitical circumstances could drive prices for WTI further down during the next two years to test the 2008 low at around USD 30 or even the 1998 low at around USD 10.

Source: Raj Times and Cycles




















Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure not only on Russia, Iran, Nigeria or Venezuela but also on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers' debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. Analysts believe North American shale needs to sell at USD 60-100 per barrel to break even on the billions of debt accrued by the energy companies. Indebted companies, fearing bankruptcy, may therefore be forced to keep selling oil, even at a loss (Source: WSJ).

Monday, December 15, 2014

DJIA 2014 vs 1997

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.
For the methodology see HERE
www.sentimentrader.com

The Stock Trader's Almanac Blog presented December’s typical seasonal pattern pointing to a bottom in stocks this week, possibly Monday, followed by a strong up day and then a nice rally.

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Tom McClellan: Crude Oil's 10-Year Leading Indication for DJIA

Tom McClellan - Chart In Focus (December 11, 2014)

Tom McClellan recently presented a 10-year leading indication relationship between oil prices and the stock market, as shown in the above chart. The current oil price slide says that sometime around 2024 some type of “echo” in stock prices from this year’s oil price drop can be expected. 

Stock prices echoing oil price movements with a 10-year lag has “worked” for over 100 years and there is enough evidence to accept it, even if we cannot explain it. For now, the message of this leading indication is that the oil price rally from 1998 to 2008 has yet to see the full extent of its echo during the 2009-2018 period. While the current dip in oil prices is going to be bad for stock prices about 10 years from now, it is not really a problem for stock prices in real time. 

The following chart zooms into this correlation between the S&P500 and the Crude Oil Price shifted 10 years into the future and suggests the S&P500 would continue moving down next week, then up into end of December before forming a major low around January 6. Another rally into early July - with a correction from around March 20 to April 24 - should follow.


2014 is the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and mid-term years are historically some of the worst. However, 2015 - the 3rd year - is the pre-election year and historically the best of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle. Additionally the 5th year of the Decennial Cycle promises to be a strong up year for stocks with a top in late July or early August 2015 (see also HERE).

www.TheChartStore.com

Oscar Carboni (12/15/2014): The Repricing of Crude Oil vs Dollar Index + Stocks keep Rising = No Crash!

The seasonal pattern of Crude Oil itself has a bottoming period between early December and mid February 2015.

www.mrci.com