Big Oil had a horrible Q2 quarter. So far in Q3, oil prices had averaged lower than in Q2, and refining margins are much lower too. Exxon has the worst profit since 1999, and the industry cannot survive on current oil prices. “What we’re seeing is that there’s just no place for the supermajors to hide”, Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis, said in an interview. “Oil prices, natural gas, refining, it all looks very bad right now.” (HERE) |
Saturday, July 30, 2016
U.S. Oil Industry | Record Exports and Worst Profits since 1999
Friday, July 29, 2016
SPX vs Inverted 354 CD (Lunar Year) Cycle
The Lunar Year Cycle (Medium Term Delta) seems to have inverted recently (from L-L and H-H polarity to L-H and H-L polarity). If the current polarity persists a major high in the S&P500 by mid August is likely. |
SPY | Neural Network-Forecast | by Alphee Lavoie |
Emerging Markets Business Cycle | Approaching Gradual Recovery
Source: Morgan Stanley Research |
1. Productive growth, a stage of moderate to high productivity-driven growth;
2. Misallocation, in which there is moderate growth driven by bad macro policies;
3. Adjustment;
4. Restoring Macro Stability, and finally
5. Gradual Recovery.
A large number of emerging markets have moved into the “restoring macro stability” recently — which means that growth is still weak, but the economy is stabilizing. Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Thailand are in this category Global GDP growth might get a boost next year, as some economies approach the end of the “emerging markets business cycle” and begin a gradual recovery.
These economies are not necessarily strong yet, but do show signs of increasing stable growth — except for Turkey, whose economy could be negatively impacted after the failed coup attempt. Thailand, for example, still has weak domestic demand and exports, but its economy is growing, partly due to robust growth in tourism, and Russian oil has managed to prosper even with today’s low prices. Brazil is still dealing with an economic crisis, which is exacerbated by its political one — but financial markets reacted favorably to news of the possibility of the president’s impeachment, and a Brazilian economist said that “the expected changes in the government and its economic policies could represent the beginning of a gradual return of investor confidence in Brazil,” and that the economy should return to growth by 2017.
If these countries move into the recovery stage in the next year, it would drive an acceleration in emerging market growth for the first time in four years. Morgan Stanley expects the GDP growth of emerging markets, excluding China, to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.8% in 2017. Those markets together make up 37% of global GDP. Countries that are already in this “recovery” phase include Mexico, which has the 11th-high GDP in the world but is still considered a developing country, and India, which has been called the “biggest turnaround story” in emerging markets because of its slow, gradual growth over the past few years. Meanwhile, China is still in the “misallocation” stage — the one with moderate growth but bad macroeconomic policies. Also in this category is Korea, whose low growth has been largely caused by declining trade with China.
Most Volatile Seasonal Period About to Begin | Nautilus Research
Source: Nautilus Research |
Source: Nautilus Research |
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | August 2016
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
SPX vs BB 233 var 2 + 125 DMA | Resistance and Support
Thursday, July 14, 2016
VIX | Put/Call Ratio | AI Forecast | Extreme Greed
The VIX should turn up today, meaning the SPX turning sideways-to-down into Jul 20 (Wed). The next lows in the VIX (= highs in the SPX) are likely Jul 14 (Thu), Jul 28 (Thu), and Aug 16 (Tue). Source: CBOE |
Source: CBOE |
FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model. Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC. |
90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are now above the 20 Day Moving Average. |
Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index |
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
SPX vs True Node Speed = Mean Node Speed + Extremes | July 2016
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
The British Pound's 100-Year Debasement & The City's China Wild Card
UK Equity Markets Dip Below 5%. Source: Bespoke (Jul 5, 2016) |
British Pound Sterling (GBP) to Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) Source: www.xe.com |
Thierry Meyssan (Jul 04, 2016) - The Western Press keeps repeating the same message – by leaving the European Union, the British have isolated themselves from the rest of the world, and will have to deal with terrible economic consequences. And yet, the fall in the Pound could be an advantage within the Commonwealth, which is a far greater family than the Union, and present on all six continents. Famous for its pragmatism, the City could quickly become the international centre for the yuan and implant the Chinese currency in the very heart of the Union [...] The London Stock Exchange announced an agreement with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), and, in June, became the primary Stock Exchange in the world to rate Chinese treasury bonds. All the elements were in place to transform the City into a Chinese Trojan Horse in the European Union, to the detriment of US supremacy.
Ahmed Farghaly (Jul 6, 2016): GBPUSD: Contradicting the EUR |
Sunday, July 3, 2016
Gold + Silver vs COT
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report suggests Gold and Silver could see a pullback. Source: Fibbo SR (Jul 03, 2016) |
SPX vs Mercury – Venus Cycle
SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle
SPX vs Mercury Speed
SPX vs SoLunar Map
SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio | VIX | Fear & Greed Index | NR7
Jul 01 (Fri) = NR 7 |
The 4 Lunar Month Cycle suggests sideways-to-up of the VIX into Jul 6 (Wed) = sideways-to-down in US-Stock Indices |
Near a top. Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index |
Saturday, July 2, 2016
New Insights in Commodities | Cyclic Vibrations
It is worth mentioning that the 14.4 year cycle with 4 harmonics was used as the input rather than just one harmonic, the reason for this was to aid us in depicted the peaks and troughs of the cycles smaller than the 14.4 year wave. As is visible on the chart above, we seem to have a clear path in the CRB index until late 2017. The projection also suggests that 2018 is likely to be a bad year for commodities. This correction should then be followed by a move into 4th quarter of 2020 followed by a correction to 2022 and so on (third chart).
In the neural network model below the price chart is an up percentage move indicator (fourth chart). It is calculated by having the cycle as an input and measuring the position of moves of over 7% a month and projecting something similar for the future of the current cycle. The likelihood of large percentage months on a closing basis is greatest from here going into mid 2019. Hence capital is best allocated in the commodity market now rather than chase the move after most of the large percentage gains have already been realized (fourth chart).
This indicator (fourth chart) is a forecast of the volatility index indicator using the same input as the charts above. It seems evident that the likelihood of high volatility is greatest from now going into 2020. This would mean that the purchase of call options are likely to be a better play than their sale in the upcoming environment. Trading in expectation of low volatility will probabalisticly lead to a loss going into 2020.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
SPX: NR7 Inside Day | Bull Pennant Flag | Put / Call Ratio | VIX
June 21 (Tue) formed a narrow range inside bar - usually a trend continuation pattern (HERE). Oscar Carboni sees a Bull Pennant Flag on the daily ES (HERE). |
The daily range was the narrowest of the last 8 trading days (HERE), and volume contracted. Today a breakout of yesterday's range is likely. However, Brexit-Thursday (Jun 23) is the next solunar turn-day, and the market may just wait for that. |
Room to the top. Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index |
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Summer Solstice Full Moon
“It is very true, some of the Ancients have Winter and Summer, made the day and night to consist of equal hours. I mean every hour to consist of sixty minutes, equally; but Astrologists do not so, but follow this method, viz. according to the motion of the Sun both Summer and Winter, so do they vary their hours in length or shortness.” One measures the time between sunrise and sunset and divides it into 12 equal parts. These are the planetary hours (HERE) |
Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. |
Enlarge |
Monday, June 20, 2016
Sunday, June 19, 2016
The End of Cheap China | 16 Emerging Low Wage Economies
Post-China 16 countries |
The new activity is focused on Africa, Asia and to a lesser extent, Latin America. When you look at the map, much of this new activity is focused in the Indian Ocean Basin. The most interesting pattern is in the eastern edge of Sub-Saharan Africa: Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia. It is primarily garment and footwear manufacturers that are firstly starting to relocate. The second area where there has been a change-over is the market of cell-phone assembly operations. In the first field it’s the skills that are easily exploitable in the workforce. In the second sector of activity is the need to have low-prices to be competitive. 50 Turkish garment factories are currently relocating to Ethiopia for example. Hennes & Mauritz AB (H&M) are also currently considering purchasing more than 1 million garments from Ethiopia every month. Costs per unit in Ethiopia are 50% cheaper than in China at the moment. However, this is estimated to rise to the current Chinese level by 2019. Chinese salaries increased last year by 17.1% and the previous year it was 18%. Salaries in China are on average just 30% lower than in the US today. Salaries in China now exceed those in Mexico and in Turkey. Ethiopia has an economic growth of 10% today. However, it remains one of the poorest countries in the world despite having one of the top economic-growth prospects of the continent.
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh are directly on the Indian Ocean. The Indochinese countries and the Philippines are not on the Indian Ocean, and even though I don't want to overstate the centrality of the Indian Ocean, they are nearby. At the very least we can say that there are two ocean basins, the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Peru, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Mexico are the Post-China countries in Latin America.
China's strength in infrastructure spending. Its bar is the highest. The colored slices represent different kinds of infrastructure, while the width of the bars signifies the size of the economy. The U.S. bar is wide and short because it represents a big economy with low spending. Source: Bloomberg. |
Artificial Intelligence Long Range Forecasts | Stock Indices | Crude Oil | Gold
FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model. Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC. |
Red dots represent monthly mean prices. First dot after the dashed vertical is June 2016, last one November 2016. |
MarketVector Financial Forecasts produces long range forecasts using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). MSSA to decompose the time series into a trend component and many cyclical components. The decomposed components of the time series are then projected forward in time. |
Chartsedge provides stock market forecasts are based on cycle data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program. |
McVerry Report generates 5-Day U.S. Market Forecasts based on Artificial Intelligence. |