Beware When Fighting Monsters | Friedrich W. Nietzsche

» Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster.

For when you gaze long into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you. «
 

Friedrich W. Nietzsche

1886 

 

Netanyahu is obsessed with razing Gaza to the ground. If that happens, a wider regional war is nearly inevitable. Sections of the West applauding the upcoming ethnic cleansing – including Zionists posing as 'analysts' saying out loud that the "population transfers" that began in 1948 "must be completed" – believe that with massive weaponry and media coverage, they can turn things around in short shrift, annihilate the Palestinian resistance, and leave Hamas allies like Hezbollah and Iran weakened. Peace in West Asia means the US retreat from Syria and Iraq; Israel retreats from Syria; Syria reconstruction – in which China is now officially involved; active redevelopment for Iraq and Lebanon; Iran and Saudi Arabia as part of BRICS 11; the Russia-China strategic partnership fully respected and interacting with all regional players, including key US allies in the Persian Gulf. And, as Chinese President Xi Jinping diplomatically put it in December 2022, Beijing "firmly supports the establishment of an independent state of Palestine that enjoys full sovereignty based on 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital. China supports Palestine in becoming a full member of the United Nations." 

 

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a map of "The New Middle East" without Palestine

during his September 22, 2023 address to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

 

See also:

Omar Suleiman (Oct 13, 2023) - On Israel. 

Mustafa Abu Sway (Oct 13, 2023) - Palestine: The Origins of The Conflict. 

 

The Three-Day Rolling Pivot Level | Mark B. Fisher

 

Mark Fisher is no ordinary trader. The ACD trading system (an opening range breakout concept) he described in his 2002 book The Logical Trader is the one he and his 75-plus traders at MBF Clearing Corp. still use to make a living on the New York markets day in and day out. Does it work? Ask anyone at Fisher's firm, and they'll tell you it does. Unlike many in the business of helping traders, Fisher is happy to share his system because he believes the more people there are using it, the more effective it will be. However, the following is not specifically about Fisher's ACD system, but about his Three-Day Rolling Pivot concept (from the same book) and the general function of balance levels in daily and weekly market maker templates, about the market maker algorithm, and the origins and basic rationale of short-term trading. The 'rolling pivot' is an extension of Fisher's pivot range concept. 

 

In the charts above a Six-Day Moving Average defines a mathematically exact balance level for all segments of the weekly and daily market maker cycles. The same is true for the balance levels defined by Fisher's Three Day Rolling Pivot, by the Weekly Pivot and by the Daily Pivot. All four govern market structure and price action within and between the trading days inside the weekly cycle. Balance levels, market structure and price action reflect the market maker logic and the process of auctioning the order flow. These balance levels can be utilized in many ways, such as to determine entry points, stops and trailing stops. Is the current price out of balance, what is the distance towards these balance levels? Price is always being moved between 'liquidity pools' and (re-) balance levels. Across hours, sessions, days and weeks the market maker orchestrates the exact same eternal recurrence of the accumulation-expansion-distribution-retracement-cycle between round numbers or levels (e.g. 0, 25, 50, 75; 0, 10, 20, 30 or 0, 20, 40, 50) also known as the pump & dump cycle.

 

3 Bar Patterns - the smallest fractals of market structure. Inside bars are ignored, the last bar of a fractal becomes
 the first of the next. Where are the round number levels, the breakout levels, liquidity, the balance levels?

Identify in the above charts day-trading, short-term trading and swing trading setups. Define price targets, entry-, exit-, stop-levels, profit/loss ratios. Be sure everything is logically solid and proportionally related to daily and weekly highs and lows and the balance levels.

 

» All my life I've been a 60/40 player, content to clear my 20%. «   -  Jesse Livermore

Programming the Livermore Market Key

Richard D. Wyckoff's Composite Operator a.k.a. Market Maker a.k.a Broker manages the order flow of 'buyers' and 'sellers' with a price generating auction algorithm realizing the highest mathematically possible return in 'dealing' with the flow of orders. Later on in life Wyckoff became a broker and market maker himself. His schematics and Jesse Livermore's tables illustrate the complete logic and algebra of the market maker's auction process and the pump & dump cycle. The auction algorithm works ever since it was invented. Livermore was able to do the math without calculator, paper and charts. Aged fourteen he started as a quotation board boy at a Boston brokerage business and literally saw patterns in the waves of numbers flowing each day from the ticker tape. Livermore came to understand that scheme generates more profit than any other business activity ever known to man. Fifteen year old Wyckoff had also begun as a broker’s runner to soon experience the exact same epiphany. Market makers were tremendously successful in multiplying their returns with the invention of electronic exchanges and with the invention of the daily global scheme between the 'Asian Session', the 'London Session', and the 'New York Session'. Wyckoff, Livermore and W.D. Gann were contemporaries, trading the same commodities, stocks and indices in the same exchanges. All were initiated into the auction algorithm. Wyckoff and Livermore were larger-than-life traders while Gann's true returns have always been subject of debates. He sold many expensive courses and forecasts. And what he sold to subscribers and students and how he actually traded for a living were very different things: Gann traded a double-tops-and-double-lows-in-the-direction-of-the-daily-trend-strategy - plain and simple pump & dump trading Wyckoff-Livermore style. What should we learn from all this? Maybe the lesson is to keep things as simple as possible as Tom Hougaard suggested.

 

Market maker pump & dump levels.

The accumulated length of the intraday price swings in the 1-minute chart of any instrument exceeds the daily true range several dozen times every single day. Imagine the factor on sub-1 minute time frames without having to deal with slippage nor transaction costs. Let that sink in. How is that possible? Understand the opening range concept and the logic and purpose of 'breakouts' and 'false breakouts' from that range. Monday's high and low define the opening range for the week; the high and low during the first thirty minutes the opening range of a session; the first three trading days of a new quarter limit the quarterly opening range; and the range of the first trading week of the year becomes the yearly opening range. Know the logic, principles and precision of price action and of market structure as taught nowadays e.g. by ICT or Stacey Burke: Price moving in one direction always creates the exact same imbalance on the opposite side. Imbalances are re-balanced by retracements of at least 50%. Price expands in proportions of 1/8ths or 1:1, 2:1, 3:1 etc. Price is always timed and measured and moves across all times frames always proportionately to the above listed opening ranges towards (re-) balance levels. Three and nine minutes are fractals within the hour; three hours a fractal within a session and the trading day; three and nine trading days are fractals within and across weeks; three and nine weeks fractals within months and quarters. Ideally Wednesdays and Fridays are timed for ending and re-starting three day fractals within the weekly market maker template.   

 

Calculation of the Three-Day Rolling Pivot:

Three-Day Rolling Pivot Price = (three-day high + three-day low + close) / 3
Second number = (three-day high + three-day low) / 2
Pivot differential = daily pivot price – second number
Three-Day Rolling Pivot Range High = daily pivot price + pivot differential [omitted in above charts]
Three-Day Rolling Pivot Range Low = daily pivot price – pivot differential [omitted in above charts]

The Probabilistic Mindset of Successful Traders - Mark Douglas

Reference:
Mark B. Fisher (2002) - The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness.

Mark B. Fisher (2002) - Spotting Breakouts As Easy As ACD.

Jesse Livermore (1940) - How To Trade In Stocks. 

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks.

 

Mark B. Fisher

Islam and the Future of Money | Imran N. Hosein

The modern monetary system emerged out of the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944 and collapsed in August 1971. It was then replaced by the petro-dollar monetary system. The ‘Ulama - Islamic scholars - lack both the knowledge and the tools of analysis with which to be able to come to the conclusion that the petro-dollar monetary system is bogus, fraudulent, and Haram - unlawful and impermissible in Islam. Unless and until the ‘Ulama of Islam study international monetary economics and summon the courage to stand up for truth and justice (al-M’aruf) while exposing and opposing all that is false and unjust (al-Munkar), it would remain impossible for Muslims to escape from this poisonous financial web which has been spun around us.

» No one in history has ever experienced the unique injustice and oppression that mankind now experiences by the
international monetary and banking system. Allah Most High made the use of gold and silver as money Halal  - lawful.
Whoever makes Haram - unlawful - what Allah has made Halal, has committed the ultimate sin of Shirk , blasphemy. «
Sheikh Imran N. Hosein

We need to confront our ‘Ulama with the argument that the Shari’ah - the sacred law of Islam - cannot be enforced unless and until we restore Dinar and Dirham - gold and silver - as money, and we cannot restore Dinar and Dirham as money while yet we remain member-states of the International Monetary Fund. This is because the Articles of Agreement of the IMF, mysteriously so, prohibit the use of gold as money. If the world is to ever know why the Zionist-fashioned IMF prohibited the use of gold as money, the question must be put to Dajjal, the Antichrist. Dajjal needs a fraudulent monetary system so that he can reduce one part of the world to abject poverty and financial slavery, while enriching that part of the world which supports him and works for him. 

Quoted from:
Sheikh Imran N. Hosein (2013) - Muslims must stop using US Dollar.

 

See also:
Sheikh Imran N. Hosein (2023) - Islam and the Future of Money.

The Weekly Opening Range & ICT Weekly Range Profiles

The Weekly Opening Range is defined by Monday's range. Monday sets the Opening Range high and low for the entire week. Tuesday may extend that range. It could become a false break, a break and range extension, a reversal, or maybe an inside day. In a large majority of weeks, by the time Monday and Tuesday has traded, the high or low extreme is in place for the week, and one of these will tend to hold, the other may get broken.  

 

After Monday's Weekly Opening Range only three things can happen on Tuesday:

1. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Trend.
2. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Reverse into the Opening Range (false breakout or stop hunt).
3. A Trading Range between Highs and Lows of the Opening Range (inside day).

Coming into Wednesday, look for the following:

• Did Monday or Tuesday close as an inside day?
• Did Tuesday's breakout fail?
• Did Tuesday close outside of Monday's Opening Range (= Opening Range Breakout) or inside?
• Was Tuesday a First Red Day (FRD) or a First Green Day (FGD)?
• Has there already been 3 levels of rise or fall from the High or the Low of the Week (LOW/HOW)? This could indicate a daily reversal.
• Consider market structure! 

Here are some additional observations related to whether Wednesday will be a reversal or a trend continuation of the Monday-Tuesday initial balance:

• If the market closes outside of Monday's Opening Range on Tuesday, the probability that Wednesday continues the trend increases significantly (unless the breakout fails on Wednesday)
• On Tuesday the market breaks out of Monday's range, but pulls back and closes inside of  Monday's range (failed breakout). The probability of reaching for the other end of the Opening Range increases significantly.
• If Monday's breakout fails, and Tuesday's breakout also fails at the other end of Monday's range, there is  high potential for a Parabolic Trend Trade on Wednesday.
• 3 Pushes of drives out of the Weekly Opening Range coming into Friday has the highest potential for a large reversal.
• If there are only 2 drives out of the Opening Range coming into Friday, there is a higher probability for a Parabolic Trend Trade.
• If the breakout on Tuesday closes 3 levels of rise or fall out of the Opening Range, the potential for reversal throughout the week increases.
• In most instruments the Tuesday-Friday range extension from Monday's opening range is usually a multiple of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2, 3, 4 or 5 of Monday's range.
• In most instruments the Average Weekly Range equals 1.8 to 2.3 times the Average Daily Range. 

 

Time Frames - Price Ranges - Time-Price Proportions | Some Observations

 

References:

Stacey Burke (2023) - Trading Inside or Outside the Daily and Weekly Range. 

Stacey Burke Trading - Pump And Dump Day Trading Setups. (YouTube Channel)

Stacey Burke (2022) - Best Trade Setups Playbook.

Cameron Benson (2023) - Day Trading Entries And Opening Range. (video)

Cameron Benson (2023) - Trading the Pump & Dump Pattern.

Michael J. Huddleston (2017) - ICT Weekly Range Profiles.  

S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern for October 2023 | Jeff Hirsch

 

 

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 03, 2023) @ X

See also:
TPR (2023) - Chinese 24 Solar Terms & Lunar Cycles in 2023.

 

Lunar Cycle & Chinese 24 Solar Terms - Oct 2023

The ‘ICT Power Of 3’ Concept & ‘ICT Killzones’ | Rounak Agarwal

The ‘ICT Power Of 3’ concept is a key component of any trading strategy or model developed by Michael J. Huddleston a.k.a. 'The Inner Circle Trader' (ICT), and explained as under:

 

1. Typical Bullish Day

 

Figure 1

 

Price will go below the opening price at midnight [all times refer to New York local time] to lure retail traders into going short. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders (SMT) will buy the shorts placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally higher to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or sell a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the high of day and close near the high, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will sell the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go short.

2. Typical Bearish Day
 

Figure 2

 

Price will go above the opening price at midnight to lure retail traders into going long. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders will sell the buy orders placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally lower to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or square off a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the low of day and close near the low, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will square off the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go long.

3. Typical Bullish Week
 

Figure 3

 

Price will go below the opening price at Sunday’s opening to lure retail traders into going short. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders will buy the shorts placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally higher to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or sell a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the weekly high and close near the high, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will sell the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go short.

4. Typical Bearish Week
 

Figure 4

 

Price will go above the opening price at Sunday’s opening to lure retail traders into going long. This is the ‘accumulation phase’ where smart money traders will sell the buy orders placed by retail traders. Then, price will rally lower to take out ‘liquidity’, which is called the ‘manipulation phase’, during which SMT will either hold or square off a portion of their positions. Eventually, price will retrace and become range-bound in an area near the weekly low and close near the low, known as the ‘distribution phase’, where SMT will square off the remaining positions to retail traders willing to go long.

Another technical analysis concept from Michael J. Huddleston is ‘ICT Killzones’, which are the highest probability time-ranges for price to make big moves in the markets. This is an integral part of ‘ICT Power Of 3’ and both are to be used in conjunction to see the markets like the ICT. The researcher has dealt only with two of ‘ICT Killzones’ here, which are:

1. ICT London Open Killzone – 02:00 to 05:00 New York local time
2. ICT New York Open Killzone – 07:00 to 10:00 New York local time which is extendable to 11:00 due to release of important economic reports, news, Fed chairperson speeches, etc. scheduled at 10:00.

Some important things to bear in mind:

1. The researcher has considered market state to be bullish if the amount of difference from open to low is less than open to high. Similarly, market state is bearish if the amount of difference from open to low is more than open to high. Days and weeks with neutral market state, i.e., where the amount of difference from open to low was equal to the amount of difference from open to high, were omitted. They were very few and the researcher believes that the omission did not affect the findings to a significant degree.
2. Sunday was omitted in calculation of average daily movement and average hourly movement for each pair to prevent inconsistencies. For the same reason, it was not considered in finding out frequency of days when price made high/low of bearish/bullish week.
3. All time ranges, etc. have been considered in the form of New York local time, adjusted for Daylight Savings Time (DST).
4. Average Daily Movement – It is the average of the daily ranges (low to high) of that particular year.
5. Average Weekly Movement – It is the average of the weekly ranges (low to high) of that particular year.
6. Average Daily Movement during ‘Accumulation phase’ – It is the average range of the ‘accumulation phase’ (open to high/low) of ‘bearish’/’bullish’ days of that particular year.
7. Average Weekly Movement during ‘Accumulation phase’ – It is the average range of the ‘accumulation phase’ (open to high/low) of ‘bearish’/’bullish’ weeks of that particular year.
8. SMT – ICT terms smart money traders as ‘SMT’. These traders know how to keep themselves in line with the algorithm and profit from trading. On the other hand, retail traders, according to Michael J. Huddleston, are those who are not trading but ‘gambling’. These ‘traders’ do not have an understanding of the market which they can rely upon and not hop from strategy to strategy, indicator to indicator instead.
9. ‘ICT Killzones’ has been shown only in Figure 1 to serve as an example. The explanation provided with Figure 4 does not comply completely with the figure, and it is because ICT’s concepts are not fixed rules. Also, the main idea has not been invalidated, as we can see in the figure that the low of the week formed after the week’s high was formed.

Quoted from:

Rounak Agarwal (2023) - A study to assess the validity of Michael J. Huddleston’s

technical analysis concept (ICT Power Of 3) in the foreign exchange market.

 

See also:

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - ICT Liquidity - The Financial Market's Zero Sum Game.

 Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - External & Internal Range Liquidity: Auction Process & Institutional Order Flow. 

Michael J. Huddleston (2023) - The ICT Power of 3. Accumulation - Manipulation - Distribution (AMD).

TPR (2022) - Daily Range = Accumulation + Manipulation + Expansion + Distribution (AMD). 

The Haven of Imperial Faith | Shabbir Akhmat

The Islamic state is a manifestation and an instrument of power, the power of the Shariah. It is a theo-nomocracy with God as king or sovereign (malik; Quran:59:23; 62:1). The Islamic state is not a clerical theocracy since classically Islam has no priesthood. (The political office of ayatollah as supreme jurist is a modern innovation and restricted to Shiite theology.) The pursuit of justice is absolute. It transcends the Shariah and reflects the character of God as just master. The Shariah is a means to an end and is judged by its ability to administer justice. As a substantive, humanitarian and universal virtue, justice transcends all legal systems and faiths. For Muslims, it is furthermore a metaphysically absolute ideal ordained by God.

Abu Huraira reported:
The Prophet, peace and blessings be upon him, said,
“Verily, everything has a zeal, and every zeal has a time limit.
Whoever does so properly and moderately, then hope for his success.
Whoever does so for people to point at him, do not count him among the righteous.”
Sunan al-Tirmidhi‌ 2453

[...] The Quran’s attempt to sanctify the political dimension of life, its decision to incorporate power into Islam’s originating ideals, explains classical Islam’s tolerant ascendancy and humanity. Rulers enforced the juridical principle of al-dhimmah (the responsibility; Quran:9:8, 10), the protection of monotheistic communities mentioned only once in the Quran along with a single reference to the protection tax (jizyah; Quran:9:29). The principle is enshrined in the Prophet’s practice. He pledged protection and honourable treatment for Jews and Christians. Being a Quranic imperative, the legal protection of Jews and Christians was, for Muslim rulers, a duty, not a merit. Hence we have the haven created by imperial Islam for communities of Jews, Eastern Christians and religious refugees fleeing from a Christian Europe steeped in violently intolerant enthusiasms. When Catholicism was re-imposed in Andalusia, Jews usually preferred migration to Muslim lands. We can imagine their alternative fate if medieval Muslims had abdicated their political obligations by pleading indifference to temporal power. Present Christian and Western unease about Islam as political religion is informed by specifically European experiences of theocratic rule. Just as the Christian experience of religious government has been invariably toxic, the Muslim experience of secular administration, imposed by Western powers, has been even worse. Under the Ottoman regime, the longest lasting dynasty in history and a genuinely Islamic order for all its defects, the Middle East experienced no major conflict for 400 years (from 1517 to 1917). That is the longest period of continuous peace for the holy land. Since 1917, however, secular colonial modernity, imposed in myriad forms, has presided over the unrest for which the region is now a byword.

Quoted from:
Shabbir Akhmat (2010) - Islam as Political Religion. The Future of an Imperial Faith.

 

See also:
Shabbir Akhmat (2015) - Being Human. (video)

Mass Surrender of Ukrainian Troops before the Russian Army

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are opting to surrender to the Russian Army, also through a newly established Russian radio frequency. Clayton Morris, an American journalist, expressed his astonishment: "This is a story the western media does not want you to see." Russian Army officials claim around 10,000 Ukrainian fighters have dropped their arms.

"We are working to prevent pointless bloodshed among Ukrainian soldiers.
We are distributing leaflets asking those servicemen to surrender."

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized earlier in September that Ukrainian troops had failed to achieve any significant success on all the front lines. This week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed reporters that during the failed counteroffensive in Kiev, the Ukrainian armed forces (UAF) suffered substantial losses of over 17,000 soldiers and more than 2,700 pieces of weaponry, all within the span of September alone. Since the start of this botched push, the UAF have lost at least 84,000 soldiers, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

 

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has vowed that Russia will capture more territory in Ukraine, a year after the claimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions, presented by Vladimir Putin as the fulfillment of the imperial project of ‘New Russia’. "The special military operation (in Ukraine) will continue until the complete destruction of the Nazi regime in Kiev and the liberation of originally Russian territories from the hands of the enemy," Medvedev declared. "Victory will be ours. And more new regions will join Russia," the second in command of the Russian Security Council added. More new regions? Odessa next.

 

Reference:
Hindustan Times (Sep 30, 2023) - On Cam: Dramatic Surrender Of Ukrainian Troops. (video)

Sputnik (Sep 30, 2023) - Thousands of Ukrainian Troops Surrender via Russian Radio Hotline.

Natali & Clayton Morris (Sep 28, 2023) - Ukraine SURRENDERING by the thousands, NATO desperate to keep war going. (podcast)

 

Sep 30, 2023 - Another War Lost - Zelenskyy Curse Hits The U.S.