Wednesday, January 4, 2023

The Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer | Wayne Whaley

According to Wayne Whaley, the most predictive period of the year is from November 19 to January 19. He considers this period to be the single most reliable seasonality barometer of forward stock market returns – so much so that he has stated if he could only make one trade per year based on one indicator, this would be the indicator he would use. Whaley’s goal was to identify what he called the "kingpin of seasonal barometers." He said, "I implored my computer to take a few seconds to exhaustively study S&P performance over every time period of the year and determine which time frame’s behavior was proprietor of the highest correlation coefficient relative to the following year’s performance."
 

What he found was a high correlation between the S&P 500’s returns from November 19th to the following January 19th and the S&P’s performance over the 12 months following January 19. Since the 2-month period straddled the turn of the year and the gift-giving season, he called it the TOY Barometer [...] (If Nov 19 falls on a weekend, use the Monday after the weekend, and if Jan 19 falls on a weekend, use the Friday before.) He only considered the price-only return (no dividends). If the return during this 2-month period was greater than 3%, a bullish signal was given, and the market was very likely to do well over the following 12 months. If the return was between 0-3%, the signal was considered neutral, and results were somewhat random, aligning with what is considered average. If the return was negative, a bearish signal was given, and returns tended to be very poor.
 
Since 1950, there have been 36 bullish signals (including the one that just triggered), 19 neutral signals, and 16 bearish signals [as of Jan 22, 2020]. Let’s look at each signal group.
 
Bullish Signals: The 35 completed bullish signals have led to gains 33 times in the following 12 months. The losses occurred in 1987, the year of one of the biggest single-day crashes in history, and in 2018, a year that included a 20% drop during the fourth quarter. The average and median gains of the 12 months following the bullish signals were 17.7% and 15.1%. This isn’t much better than the “all years” stats, but the win rate (94%) is much higher than the “all years” win rate (73%).
 

Neutral Signals: There have been 19 neutral signals. The following year was positive 12 times (63%), compared to a 73% win rate for “all years.” The overall average and median returns were 6.0% and 7.1%. But among the “up” years, the average and median gains were 14.4% and 9.4%, while the “down” years’ average and median losses were -8.5% and -7.8%. There were several big up years (1995, 1996, 1998, 2003), and two big down years (1973, 1977), so even if there is a neutral signal, there’s still a decent chance the following 12 months will venture far from its January 19 print.

Bearish Signals: There have been 16 bearish signals. Only 6 (38%) of the following years posted a gain, while 10 posted losses – and 6 of those 10 posted double-digit losses. The overall average and median returns were -3.6% and -6.0%. The “up” years posted average and median gains of 14.6% and 15.5%, while the “down” years posted average and median losses of -14.6% and -12.9%. So, despite the low win rate, when the market does well, it has the ability to do very well, as was the case this past year.

 
Summary:     
The bullish years have a very high win rate (94% vs 73% for “all years”). The average gain (17.7%) isn’t much higher than the “all years” gain (16.6%), so a bullish signal increases the odds of an up year but doesn’t increase the gain itself. 
 
The bearish years have a low win rate (38%). The gains during those up years (14.6% vs 16.6% for all years) are very good, but the losses during the down years are noticeably bigger than when a bullish or neutral signal is signaled (-14.6% vs -6.2% for bullish years and vs -8.5% for neutral years). So the odds of a down year are much higher, and the losses that follow are much bigger. 
 
The neutral years are mixed. The win rate is 63% (vs 72% for “all years”), with the gains during up years being pretty good (14.2% vs 16.6% for “all years”) and the losses during down years being moderate (a little worse than bullish years but much better than bearish years).

[...] When a bullish signal is in play, odds heavily favor solid gains over the following 12 months, but when there’s a bearish signal, odds favor a down year with a relatively big loss. But regardless of the signal, “up” years tend to be very good.


Quoted from:
 
See also: 
 
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Monday, January 2, 2023

The Blue Church, the Blue Faith & Red Pills for 2023 | Jordan Hall

This is the formal core of the Blue Church: 
 
it solves the problem of 20th Century social complexity through the use of mass media to generate manageable social coherence.
 
The abstract is this: 
 
the Blue Church is a kind of narrative / ideology control structure that is a natural result of mass media. It is an evolved (rather than designed) function that has come over the past half-century to be deeply connected with the Democratic political “Establishment” and lightly connected with the “Deep State” to form an effective political and dominant cultural force in the United States.

We can trace its roots at least as far back as the beginning of the 20th Century where it emerged in response to the new capabilities of mass media for social control. By mid-century it began to play an increasingly meaningful role in forming and shaping American culture-producing institutions; became pervasive through the last half of the 20th and seems to have peaked in its influence somewhere in the first decade of the 21st Century.

It is now beginning to unravel.


In part it is unravelling because of developing schisms within its master narrative, the Blue Faith. These are important, but they are not the subject of this essay. In this essay, I am focusing on what I think is both much more fundamental and much less obvious: deep shifts in technology and society that are undermining the very foundations of the Church. Shifts that render the Church itself obsolete. 
If you are ready for a deep dive, come on in. The water is warm.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Accumulation and Distribution Schematics | Richard D. Wyckoff

The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900s, explains how stock (or asset) prices move in cycles driven by big players like institutions or "smart money" (often called the "Composite Man" or market makers). These pros manipulate prices to buy low and sell high, profiting from retail investors (you and me, the "weak hands" who buy/sell based on emotions). 
 
Prices don't move randomly; they follow patterns in four main processes: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Within trends, there are pauses called Re-Accumulation (during uptrends) and Re-Distribution (during downtrends). Think of it like a chess game where smart money sets traps to take shares from scared or greedy small traders.
The Overall Market Cycle and Why It Works
Markets cycle: Downtrend → Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown → Repeat. Smart money (institutions with deep pockets) engineers this by controlling volume and price action. They use news, rumors, and patterns to manipulate psychology—fear at bottoms, greed at tops. Retail reacts emotionally, providing the liquidity (shares to buy/sell) that smart money needs. Tools like volume analysis help spot these phases: High volume on climaxes, low on tests.

To spot in charts: Look for ranges after trends, volume changes, and failed breakouts. Practice on historical charts to see how pros always win by being patient and contrarian.
 
Larry Williams: How to Spot a Powerful Buy Signal in a Downtrend.

1. Accumulation: Buying Cheap at the Bottom
This happens after a long price drop (downtrend), when the market hits rock bottom. Everyone's panicking, selling cheap. Smart money sees value and starts secretly buying without driving prices up too fast. 
 
 Accumulation Characteristics.
 
Step 1: Preliminary Support (PS): Prices fall hard, but selling slows as smart money begins quiet buying to stop the drop. Volume (trading amount) is high from panic sellers, but price stabilizes a bit. Market makers absorb shares from weak hands dumping in fear.
Step 2: Selling Climax (SC): A final massive sell-off hits the lowest point. Volume explodes as retail dumps everything. Smart money buys aggressively here, creating a "climax" where selling exhausts itself. Price bounces slightly.
Step 3: Automatic Rally (AR): After the climax, price rises automatically as short-sellers (betting on further drops) cover positions, and some buyers return. This rally is short-lived, testing if selling is over.
Step 4: Secondary Test (ST): Price falls back to re-test the low from the climax, but on lower volume—meaning less selling pressure. If it holds, it confirms smart money has control. They might "spring" the price below support briefly to scare out remaining weak hands and grab their shares cheap.
Step 5: Building the Range: Price moves sideways in a "trading range" (box between support and resistance lines). Smart money accumulates millions of shares discreetly over weeks/months. They use "shakes" (fake drops) to buy more. Volume dries up on down moves (no real selling) and picks up on up moves.
What Market Makers Do: Act like sponges, soaking up supply from fearful sellers without alerting the public. They avoid bidding wars by timing buys during weakness. Goal: Own a huge position at low cost before the uptrend starts.
Other Participants: Retail sells in despair ("capitulation"). Weak institutions might sell too. Smart money traps shorts by not letting prices crash further.
End Sign: "Last Point of Support" (LPS)—a final test where price holds firm on tiny volume. Then, a "Sign of Strength" (SOS): Price breaks above resistance on high volume, starting the uptrend.

Result: Smart money now controls supply, ready to pump prices.
 
2. Markup: The Uptrend Rise
Once accumulated, smart money drives prices up for profit.
  • Prices rise steadily or in waves. Volume increases on up days, decreases on pullbacks.
  • Smart money sells a bit during rises to retail chasing gains (FOMO—fear of missing out), but holds most for higher prices.
  • Pullbacks are shallow; smart money buys dips to keep momentum.
  • This phase can last months/years, with news often turning positive to attract buyers.
3. Distribution: Selling High at the Top
Mirror of accumulation, but at peaks after a long rise. Euphoria peaks; retail buys high. Smart money sells into this greed without crashing prices immediately.
 
 Distribution Characteristics.

Step 1: Preliminary Supply (PSY): Uptrend slows; first signs of heavy selling (supply) appear on high volume, but price doesn't drop much yet. Smart money starts offloading to eager buyers.
Step 2: Buying Climax (BC): Final frenzy—prices spike on huge volume as retail piles in. Smart money dumps massively here.
Step 3: Automatic Reaction (AR): Price falls automatically as buying exhausts. Tests if more demand exists.
Step 4: Secondary Test (ST): Price rallies back to re-test the high, but on lower volume—weak demand. Smart money might "upthrust" (fake breakout above resistance) to trap more buyers, then let it fall.
Step 5: Building the Range: Sideways range forms at the top. Smart money distributes shares to retail. Uses "upthrust after distribution" (UTAD) to fake strength, sucking in bulls before dropping.
What Market Makers Do: Flood the market with supply during hype, using rallies to sell without panic. They create illusions of strength (false breakouts) to offload at peak prices. Goal: Exit positions profitably before the crash.
Other Participants: Retail buys in greed, thinking the uptrend continues. Shorts get squeezed out. Weak hands get trapped holding overpriced assets.
End Sign: "Last Point of Supply" (LPSY)—final weak rally. Then, "Sign of Weakness" (SOW): Price breaks below support on high volume, starting the downtrend.

Result: Smart money cashes out; retail left holding the bag.

4. Markdown: The Downtrend Fall
Prices drop as supply overwhelms demand.
  • Falls in waves, with brief rallies (dead cat bounces) where smart money might short more.
  • Volume high on down days. News turns negative, scaring more sellers.
  • Leads back to accumulation bottom.
5. Re-Accumulation: Pausing During Uptrends
Mid-uptrend pause to "reload." After a rally, momentum fades; smart money consolidates to buy more or shake out weak bulls.
  • Shorter, tighter range than full accumulation.
  • Involves "backing up to the creek" (minor drop to support) or "jumping the creek" (break above resistance).
  • Smart money tests for remaining supply, absorbs it, then resumes markup.
  • Looks like a mini-accumulation: Support tests, low-volume pullbacks, then strong breakout.
  • What Happens: Prevents overheating; smart money builds more positions cheaply during dips, trapping shorts who think the uptrend ended.
6. Re-Distribution: Pausing During Downtrends
Mid-downtrend halt to "reload shorts." Fake recovery attracts buyers, allowing smart money to sell more or initiate shorts.
  • Shorter than full distribution.
  • Uses "upthrusts" or "jump across the creek" (false rallies) to trap longs.
  • Smart money creates liquidity by luring buyers, then dumps to resume markdown.
  • Looks like mini-distribution: False highs, high-volume failures, then breakdown.
  • What Happens: Builds false hope; smart money offloads remaining longs or adds shorts during the fake strength.
 

» An understanding of manipulative procedure in any-event helps us to judge the motives, the hopes, fears and, aspirations of all the buyers and sellers whose actions today have the same net effect upon the market as 30 many pool operations would have. So if we are squeamish about the term "manipulator" we may substitute the words "Composite Operator" with the same force and affect. 

Some people might object to this statement on the ground that regulation of the stock market has eliminated pool operations. Even though pool operations and old-fashioned manipulation are banned by law, for our purpose in studying, understanding and correctly interpreting market action, we must consider any operation a "manufactured" movement wherein the buying or the selling is sufficiently concerted and coming from interests better informed than the public as to produce the same effects as pure manipulation. 
[...] The market is made by the minds of men, and all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it. 
Great activity and breadth induces trading in large quantities by big operators on the floor and outside. Such a market enables the manipulator to unload a large line of stock. When he wishes to accumulate a line, he raids the market for that stock, makes it look very weak, and gives it the appearance of heavy liquidation by sending in selling orders through a great number of brokers.
 
You say all this is unethical, if not unscrupulous. You say it is a cruel and crooked game. Very well. Electricity can be very cruel, but you can take advantage of it; you can make it work for your benefit. Just so with the stock market and the Composite Man. Play the game as he plays it. I am giving you the inside view. «
Richard D. Wyckoff
1931 
 
Richard Wyckoff's market cycle theory centers on accumulation and distribution phases driven by insiders. Accumulation occurs at market bottoms, where sophisticated players discreetly buy assets over months without spiking prices. It begins with preliminary support, stabilizing prices, followed by a selling climax where panic selling exhausts, allowing insiders to absorb shares. Secondary tests confirm this, forming a sideways range where insiders accumulate without attracting attention. Once filled, the markup phase starts as insiders push prices up, rumors spread, and retail investors buy aggressively, driving prices past value. 
» At the bottom of a market, if the price spikes up, you should see the volume rise. That indicates accumulation. In the distribution stage, as the price falls, the volume should rise, while during price spikes upward, the volume should decline. By analyzing price and volume, you can determine whether you are in an accumulation phase or a distribution phase. That’s in an ideal world. « 
» Insiders, highly sophisticated investors, accumulate assets discreetly, avoiding price spikes. Suddenly, the market surges as retail investors drive prices beyond intrinsic value. At this peak, distribution begins, with those same insiders covertly offloading their holdings.

Distribution follows at the top, where insiders offload positions surreptitiously into retail demand. This starts with preliminary supply, followed by a buying climax where insiders sell into FOMO-driven buying. A consolidation range forms, with upthrusts trapping late buyers before a markdown begins as prices collapse. Wyckoff’s framework, used in stocks, forex, and crypto, relies on volume and price action to spot these phases. I can analyze specific assets or charts for real-time signals if you provide details. « 

See also:
 
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Range Extension & Contraction - Reversals - Time Cycles | Stacey Burke

 
oOo
 
Old Baron Rothschild's recipe for wealth winning applies with greater force than ever to speculation. Somebody asked him if making money in the Bourse was not a very difficult matter, and he replied that, on the contrary, he thought it was very easy. "That is because you are so rich," objected the interviewer. "Not at all. I have found an easy way and I stick to it. I simply cannot help making money. I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this : I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon."

Jesse L. Livermore

oOo

Quoted from:
 
See also:
 
Weekly Cycle and Market Structure in Gold (1 hour chart):
Daily and Weekly Highs and Lows, Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels, Inside Days, Outside Days,
Daily and Weekly Accumulation-, Extension-, and Distribution-Levels, Breakouts, False Breakouts,
V Patterns, M & W Patterns, Peak Formation Highs and Lows.
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Friday, December 16, 2022

The Four Guiding Principles of Market Behavior | Momentum & Trend

Principle 1:     Trend is More Likely to Continue its Direction than to Reverse
With price established in a clearly defined trend of higher highs and higher lows, certain key strategies and probabilities begin to take shape. Once a trend is established, it takes considerable force and capitalization to turn the tide. Fading a trend is generally a low-probability endeavor and the greatest profits can be made by entering reactions or retracements following a counter trend move and playing for either the most recent swing high or a certain target just beyond the most recent swing high. An absence of chart patterns or swings implies trend continuation until both a higher high and a higher low (vice versa for uptrend changes) form and price takes out the most recent higher high.

Be aware that recent statistical analysis of market action (from intraday to 20 day periods) over the last five years shows that mean reversion, rather than trend continuation is more probable in many equities/indices (as shown by more up days followed by down days than continuation upwards). For the current market environment, until volatility returns (as it may be doing now), this rule may be restated, “Trends with strong momentum show favorable odds for continuation.”
 
Principle 2:     Trends End in Climax (Euphoria/Capitulation)
Trends continue in push/pull fashion until some external force exerts convincing pressure on the system, be it in the form of sharply increased volume or volatility. This typically occurs when we experience extreme continuity of thought and euphoria of the mass public (that price will continue upwards forever). However, price action – because of extreme emotions – tends to carry further than most traders anticipate, and anticipating reversals still can be financially dangerous. In fact, some price action becomes so parabolic in the end stage that up to 70% of the gains come in the final 20% of the move. Markets also rarely change trends overnight; rather, a sideways trend or consolidation is more likely to occur before rolling over into a new downtrend.
 
Three Things Markets do:
1. Breakout and Trend.
2. Breakout and Reverse (False Breakout).
3. Trading Range (High and Low).		 
 
Principle 3:     Momentum Precedes Price
Momentum – force of buying/selling pressure – leads price in that new momentum highs have higher probability of resulting in a new price high following the next reaction against that momentum high. Stated differently, expect a new price high following a new momentum high reading on momentum indicators (including MACD, momentum, rate of change). A gap may also serve as a momentum indicator. Some of the highest probability trades occur after the first reaction following a new momentum high in a freshly confirmed trend. Also, be aware that momentum highs following a trend exhaustion point are invalidated by principle #2. Never establish a position in the direction of the original trend following a clear exhaustion point.
 
Principle 4:     Price Alternates Between Range Expansion and Range Contraction
Price tends to consolidate (trend sideways) much more frequently than it expands (breakouts). Consolidation indicates equilibrium points where buyers and sellers are satisfied (efficiency) and expansion indicates disequilibrium and imbalance (inefficiency) between buyers and sellers. It is much easier to predict volatility changes than price, as price-directional prediction (breakout) following a low-volatility environment is almost impossible. Though low volatility environments are difficult to predict, they provide some of the best risk/reward trades possible (when you play for a very large target when your initial stop is very small – think NR-7 Bars).

Various strategies can be developed that take advantages of these principles. In fact, almost all sensible trades base their origin in at least one of these market principles: breakout strategies, retracement strategies, trend trading, momentum trading, swing trading, etc. across all timeframes.
 
Concept Credit for arranging the four principles: 
 
See also:
 
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead | Jack Gillen

The Sun's position in relation to the stock market can show trends that are more or less active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed — they fall on about the same date every year. This is why some periods of the year reflect more of a pattern. This means that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will have similar to the same patterns at different sensitive points throughout each year. 
 
 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Natal Chart.
 
As an example, Iet’s take the natal chart of the NYSE and the U.S. chart. In the NYSE chart we find Venus, a prominent planet, along with Jupiter, relating to moves of success. The Sun is trine Venus at 5 degrees Taurus with the Sun at 5 degrees Virgo or 5 degrees Capricorn. This would relate to a sensitive point from the transit of the Sun to the NYSE chart. 
 
But in the US chart we have Jupiter at 5 degrees Cancer (the opposition of Cancer is Capricorn) so the transit at 5 degrees Capricorn would affect the market during that orb which would last from 5 degrees through 9 degrees, a 4-degree orb. This orb is in effect around Christmas and has become known as the year-end rally. The percentages are thus strongly in the favor as far as the Dow Jones coming up on the plus side from Christmas Day to New Year's Day. This trend is more or less dominant year after year.
 
 United States of America Natal Chart.

[...] Regarding the trend for the year, January can give a good indication because of the later degree sensitive points (Venus in Taurus, and Mars and Neptune in Virgo). This means that January can indicate what the eleven months ahead are going to be, bearish or bullish. Research reveals the success rate to be about 80 percent. 
 
This does not work when there are crash periods, certain sensitive zones activated in panics and crashes. This will bring some turmoil, as will Saturn going through Capricorn, which also indicates delays. This is very helpful in determining what an individual stock will do, but there are three factors you need to learn in order to determine which stock to start with for the year. In most cases it’s better to buy a stock at the beginning of the year and ride with it because you can get a pretty good indication of the January influence.

Why is the January influence so important? Astrologically speaking, there is the trine aspect related to the year-end rally period. But it’s more than that. We have Venus at 5 degrees Taurus, Mercury at 23 degrees Taurus and the Sun at 27 degrees Taurus, and Mars at 18 degrees Virgo. These points are trine Capricorn. So January is important because there is a grand trine, a configuration that occurs when there arc three planets, each 120 degrees apart. 
 
As the Sun leaves the 5 degree Capricorn point that relates to the short rally it moves on to a trine to the NYSE Mars at 18 degrees, the NYSE Mercury at 23 degrees and NYSE Sun at 27 degrees. So this is why January is important in anything related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The trine also occurs in the U.S. chart with Neptune at 24 degrees Virgo and the Part of Fortune at 25 degrees Taurus. But the opposition to planets in Cancer show a turning point: and Capricorn rules government. These influences can be seen from about January 9 through January 18, as the Sun transits the pertinent degrees. If the market shoots up in January, it will be up in December; if it’s low in January, then it's going to be low in December, at year's end.

 
See also:
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The Moon-Stats | Jack Gillen

The moon by itself in any particular sign or eclipse doesn’t fit into the 70 - 100 percent accuracy but there are some patterns that do. They are the Mutable signs of Gemini, Pisces, Sagittarius, and Virgo. These are your four warning signs for the market to move to the down side, and the sign of Virgo is the most critical. The September 11, 2001, tragedy had the sun in Virgo and the moon in Gemini, as many tragic events and accidents will occur under this aspect. You can go back in history to a tragic weather event or to the death of a world leader, and you will find that the moon was in one of these Mutable signs, especially in the sign of Virgo with a Saturn-line.
 
Virgo to Pisces Moon Cycle 2019 - 2026
Go Long = Virgo to Pisces | Go Short = Pisces to Virgo
 
[...] There is a Moon statistic that falls into the 70 - 100 percent group but is closer to the 70 percent group, and that’s the Moon’s transit from Virgo to Pisces. Therefore, if you are looking to go long with a stock it’s best to start during this period [...] If you have a stock you want to short, your best chance would be from the sign of Pisces to Virgo. How you determine this would be from the tables of your exit date going long, and this would be the starting date for going short, and the starting date for going long would be the exit date on the short.
 
Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange.
 
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The Mercury-Stats | Jack Gillen

Mercury goes retrograde approximately three times a year and causes a state of confusion, and after it goes back direct the market can explode into a bear or bullish market.
 
Mercury Retrograde

[...] in those years when Mercury is retrograding there is an 85 percent chance that the DJIA price at the time it goes direct will be higher than when it was retrograding. The same is true when Mercury is retrograding in the sign of Capricorn, which holds the same accuracy rate as the ten-year cycle from 1885. In the Mercury retrograde period, those dates in bold print have a 70 - 80 percent accuracy of having a higher Dow Jones price at the end of the retrograde cycle.

Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (2002) - AstroStats for the New York Stock Exchange.
 
See also:
Jack Gillen (2009) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange (2nd Ed.).
AstroSeek.com (2022) - Retrograde Planets 2022. 
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