Sunday, September 25, 2016
Saturday, September 24, 2016
Friday, September 23, 2016
SPX vs Combustion of Jupiter | September 27 (Tue)
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| The Vedic concept of combustion is summarized HERE Charted and calculated with Timing Solution. |
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| HERE Anand Chiney explains the combustion of Jupiter with various orbs in the example of the Indian NIFTY. |
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Friday, September 2, 2016
The FOMC-Cycle Pattern of Stock Market Returns
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| Source: R-bloggers |
(1) The FOMC calendar is quite irregular and changes across sub-periods over which our finding is robust.
(2) Even weeks in FOMC cycle time do not line up with important macro releases.
(3) Volatility in the federal funds market peaks during even weeks in FOMC cycle time.
(4) Information processing/decision making within the Fed tends to happen bi-weekly in FOMC cycle time: The bi-weekly cycle is driven mainly by even week observations that follow board meetings of the Board of Governors.
Furthermore, before 1994, intermeeting target changes were common and disproportionately took place during even weeks in FOMC cycle time. High return weeks do not line up with public information releases from the Federal Reserve or with the frequency of speeches by Fed officials. Systematic informal communication of Federal Reserve officials with the media and the financial sector is a more plausible information transmission mechanism. We discuss the social costs and benefits of this method of communication.
Source: Anna Cieslak, Adair Morse, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (June 12, 2016) - Stock Returns Over the FOMC Cycle. Duke University; 63 p. (HERE + HERE)
The Economist (Sep 3, 2016) - Meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), in which Fed governors and regional Fed presidents set interest-rate policy, can trigger rises and falls in the stockmarket [...] Usually every fortnight between FOMC meetings, fresh information is discussed in a gathering of Fed governors [...] gains in the stockmarket have occurred, on average, in the weeks of the FOMC meetings and the ones that involve the governors alone. A dollar invested only during those weeks would have grown more than 12-fold over the period. A dollar invested during other weeks would have lost half its value.
Thursday, September 1, 2016
SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Cycles | September 2016
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| September is the only month to show more losing months than winning months over the past 66 years. It also sports the largest average loss (-0.68%). October actually has a decent track record (up 41 times - or 62% of the time - down 25 times, with an average gain of +0.80%). However, this record is tainted somewhat as many investors - not entirely incorrectly - have come to refer to October as "Crash Month". To wit, 1929, 1930, 1932, 1933, 1937, 1941, 1978, 1979, 1987, 1997 and 2008 all witnessed sharp declines in the stock market during the month of October. Calculation: www.moneychimp.com |
SPX vs Jack Gillen’s Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | September 2016
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| "The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you
trends that are more or less active for each year, as the sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern." Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange. Upcoming turn-days (EDT): Aug 09 (Tue) 23:50, Sep 01 (Thu) 19:58, Sep 03 (Sat) 21:30, Sep 04 (Sun) 22:15, Sep 20 (Tue) 08:07, Sep 24 (Sat) 10:13, Oct 06 (Thu) 15:05. See also HERE |
SPX vs Sunspots | 36 - 48 Hour Forecast
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| Current Solar Data from NOAA (HERE + HERE) |
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| The number of sunspots in existence at any one time is continually subject to change as some disappear and new ones emerge. As the sun rotates on its own axis, these sunspots are visible at 27-day intervals, the approximate period required for the sun to make one complete rotation. The 27-day sunspot cycle causes variations in the ionization density of the layers on a day-to-day basis. |
SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator | September 2016
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| Upcoming turn-days: Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 03 (Sat), Sep 04 (Sun), Sep 05 (Mon), Sep 07 (Wed), Sep 12 (Mon), Sep 15 (Thu), Sep 16 (Fri), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 20 (Tue), Sep 26 (Mon), Oct 01 (Sat). |
SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | September 2016
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| Upcoming turn-days: Aug 25 (Thu), Sep 02 (Fri), Sep 08 (Thu), Sep 19 (Mon), Sep 29 (Thu), Oct 06 (Thu). |
SPX vs SoLunar Map | September 2016
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| Upcoming soLunar turn-days: Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 05 (Mon), Sep 09 (Fri), Sep 13 (Tue), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 20 (Tue), Sep 23 (Fri), Sep 27 (Tue), Oct 01 (Sat), Oct 05 (Wed). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE |
SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | September 2016
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| Upcoming CCDs: Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 04 (Sun), Sep 09 (Fri), Sep 15 (Thu), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 27 (Tue), Oct 06 (Thu). (Thu). Previous CCDs are HERE |
Saturday, August 27, 2016
Continuation Broadening Patterns Extremely Rare | Peter Brandt
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| Peter L. Brandt (Aug 23, 2016) - "Continuation broadening patterns are extremely rare. Broadening patterns more often end up as reversals." See also HERE |
SPX vs True Node Speed | Upcoming Eclipses + Moon Wobbles
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| During lunar and solar eclipses the lunar node starts wobbling, that is it moves back and forth, retrograde, stationary, direct, etc. very quickly (see Moon Wobbles in a NASA animation HERE). On Aug 30 (Tue) Mercury turns retrograde. The annular solar eclipse on Sep 1 (Thu) produces a T-square to a Saturn-Neptune square. The cycle of the true Lunar Node is always exactly 18.613 Solar Years = 6,798.364 CD. The 4th harmonic of 18.618 Solar Years is 1,699.591 CD = 4.6 Solar Years. Hence the Lunar Node moves 30° in the zodiac every 1.55 Solar Years (= 18.613 months). 18.613 Solar Years / 12 = 18.613 months = 1.55 years = 80.9 weeks = 566.53 CD / 8 = 10.12 weeks = 55 TD (Trading Days). More about the Rhythm of the Node HERE |
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro
A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.
When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart.
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| Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade." |
The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.
With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.
Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.
How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.
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| See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE |
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
SPX vs Sun's Movement | 150 Degrees from Spring Equinox
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| In the late afternoon (EDT) of Aug 22 (Mon) the Sun had moved 150 solar degrees (= geocentric longitude = 155 CD) from the Spring Equinox. More details on W.D. Gann's concepts of Natural Trading Days and Timing with Solar Degrees HERE + HERE. Charted and calculated with Timing Solution. |
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations | Maurice Cotterell
There appears to be a correlation between the rise and fall of civilizations with the rise and fall of radiation from the sun. The graph shows a long-term envelope of sunspot activity derived from the center graph of Carbon 14. More carbon 14 is absorbed in the growth rings of tress during the sunspot minima. Sunspot minima also correlates with mini-ice ages and a winter severity index based on a mean for Paris and London - for the period shown. The Maya disappeared during a sunspot minimum (see also HERE + HERE + HERE)
Reference:
Friday, August 19, 2016
DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations
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| Enlarge |
I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.
The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.
The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.
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| Enlarge |
The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
SPX vs SoLunar Map | August 2016
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| Upcoming turn-days are: Aug 18 (Thu), Aug 21 (Sun), Aug 25 (Thu), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu). See also HERE |
SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2016
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| Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: Aug 17 (Wed), Aug 23 (Tue), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu). See also HERE |
Inigo Owen Jones | The Weather Prophet
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| Inigo Owen Jones | See also HERE & HERE |
The Australian long-range weather forecaster Inigo Owen Jones
(1872-1954) is well written into 20th century folklore in the
Australian bush. His forecasts, issued from 1925 to his death, were
highly regarded by many Australian farmers, the general public and some
of the media. His theory is based on the idea that the solar system is a
vast electromagnetic body that is controlled by the magnetic fields of
the planets. Jupiter
is 1300 times larger than the Earth and has 12 moons, and the rotation of the
vast orb takes ten times longer than Earth. This all combines to create a
magnetic field much greater than that of the Earth. Inigo Jones
discovered that when the major planets, e.g. Jupiter, moved towards the
point of celestial longitude known as eighteen hours of right ascension,
which points to the fixed star Vega, it caused sunspot minima. He also
found that on each such occasion there was a more or less severe drought
in eastern Australia. The working hypothesis from his observations is
that the seasons are controlled by the magnetic fields of the four major
planets and the Moon. There are longer droughts when there are more planets pointing towards Vega and floods when they are 180 degrees from Vega.
Droughts cancel out floods if the planets are opposite each other at
these points. Sunspot cycles are on average the same length as the cycle
of Jupiter. Around the globe it is possible to show that greater sunspot activity causes more precipitation. Put
simply, Inigo Jones believed
that cyclical variations in the activity of the Sun - visible as
sunspots - controlled the Earth’s climate, and that these
variations were themselves largely determined by the orbits of Moon,
Jupiter,
Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. He
considered five planetary-solar cycles of 35 years, 36 years, 59 years,
71 years and 84 years, and on looking back at the Australian Growing
Season rainfall of 35, 36, 59, 71 and 84 years previously, he gained an
appreciation of the expected rainfall for the forecast season or year in
question.
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| Australian Rainfall Cycles |
If
one wants to know what the weather would be like on 1 January next
year, one would calculate the positions of the planets on that day and
then look back through the record of weather observations to a time when
the planetary positions were the same. If the locations of the planets
matched, then so would the weather – more or less. Or perhaps less than
more, for what seemed to set Jones apart from other weather prophets
were the levels of complexity he added to this basic cyclical system. It
is worth noting that to make predictions with this system one needs a
very, very long, unbroken series of weather observations. Jones was fond
of quoting the opinion of Queensland University’s professor of
mathematics that a full test of his theory could not be made without 300
years of data.
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| Inigo Owen Jones (1938): Why I build the Crohamhurst Observatory (HERE) |
Great Game 2.0 | Andrei Ilyich Fursov
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| Hit Syria – Target Russia – Contain China |
Monday, August 1, 2016
US Homeownership at Lowest Level in over 50 Years
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| The Census Bureau has been tracking homeownership rates in its data series going back to 1965 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. In the second quarter 2016, the homeowner- ship rate dropped to 62.9%, the lowest point on record. Source: Wolf Street |
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