Many of the commodities seem to have had a consistently decreasing real price prior to the last 100 years. Commodities that look particularly cheap are generally agricultural ones while the more industrial based commodities seem to be at the more expensive end of history, in part fueled by significant demand from China over the past decade. This is particularly true when looking at data over the past 100 years. Precious metals also look expensive from a historical stand-point, which probably reflects the post-1971 fiat currency regime we currently operate in. One of the problems with this analysis is that the importance of these commodities changes over time as does the cost of mining them. Source: Deutsche Bank (2015) - Long-Term Asset Return Study.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
Most Commodities Historically Cheap
Many of the commodities seem to have had a consistently decreasing real price prior to the last 100 years. Commodities that look particularly cheap are generally agricultural ones while the more industrial based commodities seem to be at the more expensive end of history, in part fueled by significant demand from China over the past decade. This is particularly true when looking at data over the past 100 years. Precious metals also look expensive from a historical stand-point, which probably reflects the post-1971 fiat currency regime we currently operate in. One of the problems with this analysis is that the importance of these commodities changes over time as does the cost of mining them. Source: Deutsche Bank (2015) - Long-Term Asset Return Study.
The Rise and Fall of Modern Empires
In 1950 China’s share of the world’s population was 29%, its share of world economic output (on a PPP basis) was about 5%. By contrast the US was almost the reverse, with 8% of the world’s population the US commanded 28% of its economic output. By 2008, China’s huge, centuries-long economic underperformance was well down the path of being overcome. Based on current trends China’s economy will overtake America’s in purchasing power terms within the next few years. The US is now no longer the world’s sole economic superpower and indeed its share of world output (on a PPP basis) has slipped below the 20% level which we have seen was a useful sign historically of a single dominant economic superpower. In economic terms we already live in a bipolar world. Between them the US and China today control over a third of world output (on a PPP basis). Source: Deutsche Bank (2015) - Long-Term Asset Return Study.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
SPX vs MER-MAR Speed Differential
Peak Everything: Bonds - Equity - Real Estate
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Credits: Deutsche Bank |
SPX vs MER-VEN Cycle
Thursday, September 3, 2015
The Lowest Interest Rates in 5,000 Years
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Sources: Bank of England, Global Financial Data, Homer and Sylla "A History of Interest Rates". |
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Blood Moon Ends Lunar Tetrad - SuperMoon Lunar Eclipse on September 28
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Credits: NASA |
There's much talk about the Seven Year Shemitah Cycle and related stock market crashes. However, eclipses occur near the Lunar Nodes: Solar eclipses (September 13) when the passage of the Moon through a Node coincides with the New Moon, and Lunar Eclipses (September 28) when the passage coincides with the Full Moon (HERE + HERE).
SoLunar Intraday Maps - September 2015
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The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets. Please note: Times are EST (not EDT). Maps of previous months are HERE |
Saturday, August 29, 2015
Financial Fascism - The Elimination of Physical Currency
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“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.” ― Benito Mussolini, 1932 |
“The existence of cash — a bearer instrument with a zero interest rate — limits central banks’ ability to stimulate a depressed economy. The worry is that people will change their deposits for cash if a central bank moves rates into negative territory,” states the article. Complaining that cash cannot be tracked and traced, the writer argues that its abolition would, “make life easier for a government set on squeezing the informal economy out of existence.” Abolishing cash would also give governments more power to lift taxes directly from people’s bank accounts, the author argues, noting how “Value added tax, for example, could be automatically levied — and reimbursed — in real time on transactions between liable bank accounts.”
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Totalitarianism of the European Financial Oligarchy - Votes change nothing! |
Friday, August 28, 2015
VIX vs 4 Lunar Year Cycle
Upcoming Astro Phenomena - September 2015
Sep 05 (Sat) = SUN 120° PLU
Sep 06 (Sun) = VEN (D)
Sep 13 (Sun) = New Moon = Solar Eclipse
Sep 17 (Thu) = JUP 180° NEP
Sep 19 (Sat) = VEN 0° URA [helio]
Sep 20 (Sun) = SUN 90° Galactic Center
Sep 22 (Tue) = VEN 120° URA
Sep 24 (Thu) = PLU (D)
Sep 25 (Fri) = MAR 90° SAT
Sep 28 (Mon) = Super Full Moon + Lunar Eclipse
SoLunar CITs (HERE)
Sep 02 (Wed), Sep 06 (Sun), Sep 10 (Thu), Sep 13 (Sun), Sep 17 (Thu), Sep 21 (Mon), Sep 24 (Thu), Sep 28 (Mon)
Cosmic Cluster Days (HERE)
Sep 01 (Tue), Sep 03 (Thu), Sep 07 (Mon), Sep 08 (Tue), Sep 15 (Tue), Sep 19 (Sat), Sep 30 (Wed)
Bradley Siderograph CITs (HERE)
Sep 03 (Thu), Sep 05 (Sat), Sep 24 (Thu), Sep 29 (Tue)
Planets vs Galactic Center (HERE)
Sep 20 (Sun) = SUN 90° GC
SUN and Planets @ 14°Cancer (HERE)
Sep 20 (Sun)
Natural Trading Days (HERE)
Fall Equinox = Sep 23 (Wed)
Radio Flux 10.7 cm Forecast CITs (HERE)
Sep 1 (Tue), Sep 4 (Fri), Sep 11 (Fri), Sep 20 (Sun), Sep 30 (Wed)
Sensitive Degrees of the SUN (HERE)
Sep 02 (Wed) 15:04 = SUN @ 10° VIR -
Sep 04 (Fri) 16:38 = SUN @ 12° VIR +
Sep 05 (Sat) 17:23 = SUN @ 13° VIR -
Sep 21 (Mon) 03:08 = SUN @ 28° VIR +
Sep 25 (Fri) 05:15 = SUN @ 02° LIB -
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10.7 cm Flux is considered a sunspot-proxy. Source: NOAA |
Thursday, August 27, 2015
SPX vs Sunspots
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
SPX vs SUN-JUP Cycle
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The SoLunar Map signals a turn down today. Well, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) did tank again. |
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Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. |
Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
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Source: Political Calculations |
China bigger Risk than Lehman, Greece, US Fiscal Problems?
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Source: Torsten Sløk, Deutsche Bank Securities - found @ Barry Ritholtz |
SPX vs Planetary Hours + SoLunar Intraday Map (Aug 25-26)
Monday, August 24, 2015
The Chart Whisperer Exlaining the Nature of this Crash
Shipping Indices Reflecting Real Economy
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Baltic Dry Index (HERE) |
The BDI is the main sea freight index at the Baltic Exchange for ships carrying dry bulk commodities. The BDI peaked out at 1,222 in early August and continued to drop to 994 points last Friday, mainly due to weak panamax rates. The overall index factors in average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize dry bulk transport vessels.
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Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (HERE) |
U.S. Energy Consumption since 1776
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Credits: EIA |
Saturday, August 22, 2015
SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator
Eurodollar COT Signals Big Drop in Stocks Still Ahead | Tom McClellan
DJIA 2015 vs DJIA 2008
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Calculated and charted with Timing Solution. For the methodology see HERE |
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Planetary Hours + Times of Rising, Culminating and Setting Planets
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Times to watch Thursday, August 20, 2015 (EDT). Online calculators can be found HERE + HERE + HERE + HERE |
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
SoLunar Intraday Maps - August 2015
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The charts show the hourly solunar forces over Wall Street. Intraday movements of financial markets are strongly influenced by daily and intraday solunar forces. They usually closely follow their direction - either directly or inverted. Turning points can be fine-tuned using the previously described planetary hours as well as the times of rising, culminating and setting planets. Please note: The times calculated refer to EST (not EDT). |
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HERE |
Saturday, August 15, 2015
The Demographic Crash of Civilizations
The so-called "developed world" is neglecting one of the most fundamental responsibilities of any enduring civilization: raising the next generation. Civilization, culture, social cohesion, and economic prosperity all depend on a basic prerequisite—continued human existence. Without reproduction, all other achievements ultimately become irrelevant.
Approximately 8 million working-age adults (18 to 65) are unable to sustain themselves—either unemployed or trapped in precarious, low-wage employment such as contract work, “One-Euro jobs,” part-time roles, mini-jobs, and other exploitative schemes tied to the Hartz labor market reforms. Around half a million Germans are homeless, many of them children, in a system where the remaining taxpayers finance what can only be described as institutionalized social neglect.
The average worker surrenders nearly two-thirds of their gross income to taxation, while the state has poured €400 billion into rescuing failing banks and continues to pay €100 million in daily interest on public debt. Within this socio-economic landscape, roughly 650,000 children are born each year—one-third to parents of immigrant backgrounds—compared to around 840,000 deaths annually, resulting in a net loss of nearly 200,000 people per year.
In essence, as it rapidly ages and grows poorer, Germany loses the equivalent of a mid-sized city every year. Official projections indicate the population will shrink to between 65 and 74 million by 2060, depending on annual net migration levels (ranging from 100,000 to 400,000). Meanwhile, demographic collapse among the native population continues, marked by a third of women remaining childless, over 200,000 abortions annually, and other structural factors contributing to a sustained decline in birth rates.
Combined with immigration policies perceived by critics as prioritizing replacement over integration, Germany faces the potential erasure of its historic national identity within this century. This trajectory is not unique; similar patterns can be observed across nearly all other European nations.
As of today, the global average fertility rate stands at 2.3, with 80% of the world’s population living in countries where women, on average, have fewer than three children. This means that global fertility is only marginally above the replacement level, and current population growth is primarily driven by increased life expectancy rather than high birth rates. In 1960, China’s fertility rate was 6.1; today it has fallen to 1.6. Iran’s fertility rate dropped from 6.3 in 1985 to 1.9 today. Thailand followed a similar trajectory: from 6.14 in 1955 to 3.92 in 1985, and down to 1.49 today.
The issue facing the developed world is not only economic stagnation but also demographic decline. Many nations are aging rapidly and experiencing fertility rates well below the replacement threshold—some have arguably passed the demographic point of no return. The lowest fertility rates globally are concentrated in the most industrialized regions of Asia: China (1.55), Japan (1.40), South Korea (1.25), Taiwan (1.11), Hong Kong (1.04), Macau (0.91), and Singapore (0.80). Similarly low, near-extinction fertility rates are seen in parts of Southern Europe and former Soviet states: Portugal (1.52), Spain (1.48), Italy (1.42), Greece (1.41), Poland (1.33), and Ukraine (1.30).
In contrast, Africa remains demographically youthful. In 2015, children under 15 made up 41% of its population, with another 19% aged 15 to 24. Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as much of Asia—regions that have seen substantial fertility declines—show smaller proportions of children (26% and 24%, respectively) and comparable shares of youth (17% and 16%). Together, these three regions were home to 1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young people in 2015.
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Source: UN DESA |
Monday, August 10, 2015
Bull and Bear Markets in Oil 1861-2015
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Credit Suisse notes that bear markets in oil prices last between 11 and 28 years, while bull markets typically last less than 10. |
Friday, August 7, 2015
The Real Price of Gold
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A “golden constant” perspective suggests a fair value price for gold of $825 an ounce (HERE) |
Campbell R. Harvey (Aug 3, 2015) - Using the U.S. Consumer Price Index as an arbitrary, though conventional, fundamental driver of the price of gold, the high real price of gold has been about 8.73, the low real price of gold has been about 1.47 and the current real price of gold is about 4.63.
[...] There are at least two ways to think about the current historically high real price of gold. One is that the real price of gold may “mean revert” towards the horizontal rust colored line, the golden constant value for gold linked with the average real price of gold. Or it is also possible that all of “history is more or less bunk”, as Henry Ford once put it, reflecting an idea that bold investors and innovators were never slaves to history.