(Percentages updated for 2023).
Reference:
Showing posts with label Seasonality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seasonality. Show all posts
Thursday, December 21, 2023
Seasonality Map for Currencies, Stocks, Bonds & Commodities
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
2024 in the Four Year Election Cycle │ Dimitri Speck
Dow Jones, 4-year cycle, calculated over 121 years.
2024 is an election year. The election cycle suggests a weak first half of the year, and a good second half. The election year gets off to a weak start. The left quarter of the chart shows the typical performance of the Dow Jones in election years. As indicated by the red arrow, these typically posted losses in the first half of the year. After that, things look much better, as indicated by the green arrow.
Quoted from:
Seasonax (Dec 13, 2013) - 4-Year Election Cycle: How will 2024 go?
Monday, December 18, 2023
2024 US Stock Market Outlook │ Larry Williams
Larry Williams' 2024 projection for US Stocks:
First week of January to last week of February - UP
Last week of February to last week of April - DOWN
Last week of April to last week of Juli - SIDEWAYS-TO-UP
First day to last day of August - UP
First week to third week of September - DOWN
Third week to fourth week of September new high of the year - UP
Fourth week of September to first week of November - SIDEWAYS-TO-DOWN
First week of November to first week of December - UP
First week to third week of December - DOWN
Third week to last trading day of December printing the yearly high - UP
The December 2023 Low is a key price level in Q1 of 2024.
Larry Williams identified June 2024 in the current decennial pattern
as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy and hold until December 2025.
Reference:
S&P 500 │ 2023 Still An Inside Year
S&P500 (weekly candles)
The 2023 yearly target remains above the January 2022 high at 4,817. Price currently above Level 2 and above the July 2023 third quarter's high. 2023 is still an Inside Year, inside of the 2022 price range. The 2023 fourth quarter is an Outside Quarter. Eight trading days left before the year closes for another 120 to 140 points up into the Level 3 price target at 4,857 or even 5,000. From there a retracement down to around 4,587 - 4,440. The seasonal chart points to the 2023 high around Dec 26 (Tue). See also: The Yearly Market Maker Breakout Template.
S&P500 (4 hour bars)
Week Dec 18-25 sideways-to-up; Year-End-Rally; early January 2024 high around 5,050.
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE in 2024 | Jack Gillen
| Date | Sun's Longitude Position | Effect on US Stock Indexes |
| 2023 12 08 (Fri) | = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees | negative = low |
| 2023 12 12 (Tue) | = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees | negative |
| 2023 12 16 (Sat) | = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees | positive = high |
| 2023 12 28 (Thu) | = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees | positive |
| 2024 01 02 (Tue) | = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees | positive |
| 2024 01 06 (Sat) | = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees | negative |
| 2024 01 19 (Fri) | = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees | negative |
| 2024 01 30 (Tue) | = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees | positive |
| 2024 02 03 (Sat) | = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees | positive |
| 2024 02 06 (Tue) | = SUN @ 17 AQU = 317 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 18 (Sun) | = SUN @ 29 AQU = 329 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 23 (Fri) | = SUN @ 4 PIS = 334 degrees | negative |
| 2024 02 24 (Sat) | = SUN @ 5 PIS = 335 degrees | negative |
| 2024 03 03 (Sun) | = SUN @ 13 PIS = 343 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 11 (Mon) | = SUN @ 21 PIS = 351 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 24 (Sun) | = SUN @ 4 ARI = 4 degrees | positive |
| 2024 03 31 (Sun) | = SUN @ 11 ARI = 11 degrees | positive |
| 2024 04 07 (Sun) | = SUN @ 18 ARI = 18 degrees | negative |
| 2024 04 13 (Sat) | = SUN @ 24 ARI = 24 degrees | negative |
| 2024 04 26 (Fri) | = SUN @ 6 TAU = 36 degrees | negative |
| 2024 05 01 (Wed) | = SUN @ 12 TAU = 42 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 05 08 (Wed) | = SUN @ 18 TAU = 48 degrees | negative |
| 2024 05 19 (Sun) | = SUN @ 19 TAU = 59 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 05 25 (Sat) | = SUN @ 5 GEM = 65 degrees | negative |
| 2024 06 06 (Thu) | = SUN @ 16 GEM = 76 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 06 07 (Fri) | = SUN @ 17 GEM = 77 degrees | negative |
| 2024 06 08 (Sat) | = SUN @ 18 GEM = 78 degrees | neutral |
| 2024 06 29 (Sat) | = SUN @ 8 CAN = 98 degrees | positive |
| 2024 07 04 (Thu) | = SUN @ 13 CAN = 103 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 07 (Sun) | = SUN @ 16 CAN = 106 degrees | positive |
| 2024 07 10 (Wed) | = SUN @ 18 CAN = 108 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 24 (Wed) | = SUN @ 2 LEO = 122 degrees | negative |
| 2024 07 29 (Mon) | = SUN @ 6 LEO = 126 degrees | positive |
| 2024 08 09 (Fri) | = SUN @ 17 LEO = 137 degrees | negative |
| 2024 08 10 (Sat) | = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 02 (Mon) | = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees | negative |
| 2024 09 04 (Wed) | = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 05 (Thu) | = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees | negative |
| 2024 09 20 (Fri) | = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees | positive |
| 2024 09 24 (Tue) | = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 07 (Mon) | = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 14 (Mon) | = SUN @ 21 LIB = 201 degrees | positive |
| 2024 10 22 (Tue) | = SUN @ 29 LIB = 209 degrees | positive |
| 2024 10 25 (Fri) | = SUN @ 2 SCO = 212 degrees | negative |
| 2024 10 27 (Sun) | = SUN @ 4 SCO = 214 degrees | negative |
| 2024 11 03 (Sun) | = SUN @ 11 SCO = 221 degrees | positive |
| 2024 11 21 (Thu) | = SUN @ 29 SCO = 239 degrees | positive |
| 2024 11 25 (Mon) | = SUN @ 3 SAG = 243 degrees | positive |
| 2024 12 08 (Sun) | = SUN @ 16 SAG = 256 degrees | negative |
| 2024 12 12 (Thu) | = SUN @ 20 SAG = 260 degrees | negative |
| 2024 12 15 (Sun) | = SUN @ 24 SAG = 264 degrees | positive |
| 2024 12 27 (Fri) | = SUN @ 6 CAP = 276 degrees | positive |
| 2025 01 01 (Wed) | = SUN @ 11 CAP = 281 degrees | positive |
| 2025 01 06 (Mon) | = SUN @ 16 CAP = 286 degrees | negative |
| 2025 01 19 (Sun) | = SUN @ 29 CAP = 299 degrees | negative |
| 2025 01 30 (Thu) | = SUN @ 10 AQU = 310 degrees | positive |
| 2025 02 03 (Mon) | = SUN @ 14 AQU = 314 degrees | positive |
» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you
trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are
generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year.
So this
is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
Quoted from:
Solar Ephemeris.
Monday, December 11, 2023
The Geocentric Bradley Barometer │ Turning Points 2024
2023 Nov 13 (Mon) = High
2023 Dec 17 (Sun) = Low
2023 Dec 22 (Fri) = High
2024 Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
2024 Jan 13 (Sat) = High
2024 Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
2024 Jan 29 (Mon) = High
2024 Feb 09 (Fri) = Low
2024 Feb 13 (Tue) = High
2024 Feb 25 (Sun) = Low
2024 May 26 (Sun) = High
2024 Jun 11 (Tue) = Low
2024 Jun 29 (Sat) = High
2024 Aug 19 (Mon) = Low
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
2024 Oct 05 (Sat) = High
2024 Oct 27 (Sun) = Low
2024 Nov 02 (Sat) = High
2024 Nov 13 (Wed) = Low
2024 Nov 25 (Mon) = High
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = Low
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = High
2024 Dec 26 (Thu) = Low
The very well‐known financial astrology indicator known as the Bradley Barometer [or Bradley Siderograph] was created by Donald Bradley in 1947. The theory was that what is happening up in the sky affects human behavior on earth, so Bradley created a barometer that was a combination of transits. By assigning positive values to positive transits and negative values to negative transits he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph. The Bradley also includes the declination of planets. The higher in the sky that a planet appears above the horizon, the more positive the value. The lower in the sky that a planet appears below the horizon, the more negative the value. This Bradley Barometer graph correlated well to the markets even though there was no known physical correlation. The Bradley does very well in forecasting the headwinds or tailwinds of long‐term market moves that can occur over many months […] In recent years, it has shown quite a number of failures. This may be due to a variety of factors. If the Bradley Barometer measures the natural organic flow of the market, then there are certainly external artificial influences that can diminish its effectiveness. Some of these factors may include high‐frequency trading and/or government interference through central bank stimulus. Artificial inflation will cause a market to rise regardless of transits. The market will still oscillate, but with an upward bias. Another important angle to consider about the Bradley is that it designed to be taken in the context of what is happening in the market. The Bradley Barometer is an oscillator. We all know that the market does not oscillate back and forth all the time.
Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.
Over the past century, the market has trended higher. However, in between, there are cyclical bull markets and bear markets and sometimes there are consolidation periods. Everything forecast must be taken in its relative context to current market conditions. In a bull market, the down periods in the Bradley may simply mark sideways consolidation periods. It is useful to think of negative planetary transits in the face of a bull market as being nothing more than headwinds that are just a pause in the uptrend. It also follows that in a bull market the periods of the Bradley may mark the largest bull runs. In bear markets, the positive runs in the Bradley model serve as just pauses in the selling. The negative drops in the Bradley mark periods of intense selling in the market. In neutral markets, the Bradley tends to mirror market movement like an oscillator. nevertheless, the Bradley is a very popular model to this day, and many financial astrologers still use it as a backbone to get an overall picture of what the market is doing or what it made do in the future.
ooo0ooo
Also consider:
New Moons typically mark beginnings of cycles, and Full Moons mark
completions.
In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are
tops.
In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms.
More often than not,
stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month,
fall
from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.
Major Red News Releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) and Options Expiration Dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching)
may delay or cancel typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.
Saturday, December 9, 2023
The Grinch Barometer | Wayne Whaley
Define the Grinch Barometer as the S&Ps performa over the 3 trading days before and after Xmas (6 days). Stay tuned for Grinch spottings.
Since
1950, a negative Grinch has been followed by a positive January in 16
of those 19 years (average month = +4.3%) and a positive calendar year
in 18 of those 19 cases (average year = +19.4%). To the contraire,
eleven of the 12 S&P double digit loss years since 1950 followed
positive Grinch’s.
S&P 500 McClellan Summation Index - the long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator -
kept steadily rising for six week and closed at 858 last Friday. No reversal.
However, the DJIA now closed the sixth week / the 27th trading day above the 9-day moving average a.k.a. the market maker re-balance level within all different weekly range templates. Not sure when this happened last time. All the shallow consolidations during the past four weeks occurred around the 3-day moving average only. Spectacular. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ consolidated last week around the 9 DMA into Thursday before taking out the previous weeks high once again - but by some points only. Nasdaq actually printed lower weekly lows and closed on a lower high. What goes up will come down again to 50%+ levels - sooner or later. Next Monday, December 11, the DJIA will open the seventh week / the 28th trading day above the 9 DMA. Impressive outside fourth quarter range on a new 2023 high. The S&P 500 touched the July 27 yearly high to the pip but did not break to the upside. Lagging behind the other two major indexes by at least a single pip. Quite fantastic. Monday, December 10, will be 45 solar longitude degrees away from the November 27 major low. Tuesday, December 12 looks like a New Moon and 'Sensitive Solar Degree' December high. Saturday-Sunday, December 16-17 is a turn day in the geocentric Bradley Siderograph and should mark a low in US stocks.
Friday, December 8, 2023
Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees of the Sun | December 2023
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» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you
trends that are more or less active for each year,
as the sun degrees are
generally fixed. They fall on about the same date every year.
So this
is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «
Quoted from:
Jack Gillen (1979): The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.
2023 12 08 (Fri) = SUN @ 16° SAG
2023 12 12 (Tue) = SUN @ 20° SAG = New Moon
2023 12 16 (Sat) = SUN @ 24° SAG
2023 12 28 (Thu) = SUN @ 06° CAP
2024 01 02 (Tue) = Sun @ 11° CAP
Solar Ephemeris.
Wednesday, November 29, 2023
S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For December 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
First half of December weak ahead of mid-month pop.
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Nov 29, 2023) @ X
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Nov 29, 2023) @ X
primetimes2.com - Cycle of Solunar Forces in December, 2023.Tuesday, October 31, 2023
S&P 500 Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern For November 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Being a bullish month, November has seven bullish days based upon S&P 500, with four occurring in the first five trading days of the month. This bullish stretch is visible in November’s seasonal chart with solid gains spanning the first six trading days. Following a strong open, the market has tended to drift sideways with some chop through mid-month and into the Thanksgiving holiday before rallying strongly to finish the month. Although historically a bullish month, November does have weak points. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of November. In pre-election years, performance in November has been softer, but full-month performance remains positive on average.
Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Oct 30, 2023) @ X
See also:
Tuesday, October 3, 2023
Wednesday, September 13, 2023
Sell Rosh Hashanah & Buy Yom Kippur 2023 | Jeff Hirsch
Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur is aligning quite well this year with late September seasonal weakness and the notoriously treacherous week after quarterly options expiration, AKA Triple Witching (Fri, Sep 15th). It’s a few days before FOMC (Tue-Wed, Sep 19-20) with a market jittery on hotter inflation data.
Rosh Hashanah lands on Saturday 9/16 this year so we close the day before. This is right at the mid-month peak of the typical September pattern. Yom Kippur falls on 9/25 (Mon) which is the 16th trading day of the month, right around the seasonal monthly low point.
The thesis is that folks sell positions on Rosh Hashanah the first of the Days of Awe to rid themselves of financial commitments and then return to the market after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement. It is no coincidence that this coincides with the seasonal September/October weakness. The market has been tracking the 4-year cycle and seasonal trends to a T this year and the past 3. So this should make a great entry for the Q4 pre-election year rally.
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