The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was
estimated to be 183,000 hectares (163,000-202,000) in 2015, which
represents a 19% decrease from 2014. Area under opium poppy cultivation
has decreased for the first time since 2009 and is at its fourth highest
level since the beginning of estimations in 1994; higher levels have
been estimated in 2007, 2013 and 2014 (HERE). The decline is largely due, it
seems, to natural causes (HERE) – crop failure in the traditional opium-growing
heartland of the south – and market fluctuation, rather than anything
the government or outside agencies have done. Moreover, the trend was
bucked in areas of the north and west, where farmers, especially those
living in insecure areas, have been putting more land under poppy
cultivation.
That lower yield was seen even in Kandahar where traders
had distributed genetically-modified poppy seeds to farmers just before
the planting season (in parts of Kandahar and Helmand poppy is planted
twice a year). These seeds were supposed to boost the yield and shorten
the growth cycle of the plants. The
seeds originate in China where legal opium poppy cultivation is
undertaken for pharmaceutical use, as is the case in over a dozen
countries. “The genetically modified seeds shorten the growth cycle of
the plant – to one to two months, instead of five to six months.” (HERE). However, 90 per
cent of world illicit opiates are still produced in Afghanistan (opium and its derivatives morphine and
heroin). Half of the Afghan opium is converted
into heroin or morphine within Afghanistan. In 2014 the GDP of Afghanistan was US$ 21.2 billion, while the gross value of the Afghan opiate economy was estimated to be US$ 2.84 billion (US$ 3.1 billion in 2013). This value represents all income generated by the opium production that is believed to have remained in Afghanistan (HERE).
Monday, November 23, 2015
One Year Is Not A Trend - Afghan Opium Production Decrease
Labels:
Afghanistan,
Cash Crops,
El Niño,
GMO,
Heroine,
Opiate Economy,
Opium,
UNODC
Insider Transactions Ratio Becoming More Bullish
Insiders are becoming more bullish. This is a positive. Insiders' timing has tended to be very good (more HERE) |
Labels:
Barron's,
Insiders Transactions Ratio
How Many Ghost Cities Are There in China?
Map from a Baidu study on 20 cities with a large vacant housing area |
Tianducheng - Paris of the East (HERE) |
Labels:
China,
Ghost Cities,
Kangbashi,
Real estate Bubble,
Rushan,
Tianducheng,
Urbanization
Web Bot: Massive Crackdown in China - $64B Underground Bank Busted - Emergency FED Meeting Monday (Nov 23): Rate Hike?
Labels:
China,
FED Emergency Meeting,
Gold,
Interest Rates,
Market Manipulation,
Money Laundry,
Realist News,
Silver,
The Club,
Web Bot
Saturday, November 21, 2015
SPX vs George Bayer's » A Time and Times and Half a Time «
More information on the concept HERE. Charted and calculated with Timing Solution |
Labels:
AstroFin,
Financial Astrology,
George Bayer,
George Bayer Law of »A Time and Times and Half a Time«,
Soybeans,
SPX,
Timing Solution,
US-Stocks
SPX vs Speed of Mercury + Moon
On Nov 25 (Wed) the heliocentric speed of Mercury reaches the cyclical minimum; the lunar speed's minimum follows the next day; Thanksgiving Day will be the low in US-stock indices next week. |
“Live As On A Mountain. Let Men See.”
“Men exist for the sake of one another” |
[...] Say to yourself in the early morning: I shall meet today inquisitive, ungrateful, violent, treacherous, envious, uncharitable men. All these things have come upon them through ignorance of real good and ill. [...] Men exist for the sake of one another. Teach them then or bear with them. [...] Very little is needed to make a happy life. [...] Know the joy of life by piling good deed on good deed until no rift or cranny appears between them. [...] Have I done something for the general interest? Well then I have had my reward. Let this always be present to thy mind, and never stop doing such good. [...] He who fears death either fears to lose all sensation or fears new sensations. In reality, you will either feel nothing at all, and therefore nothing evil, or else, if you can feel any sensations, you will be a new creature, and so will not have ceased to have life. [...] Live as on a mountain. Let men see, let them know a real man who lives according to nature. If they cannot endure him, let them kill him. For that is better than to live thus." - Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121 – murdered 180 AD): Meditations
Labels:
Common Good,
Diognetus,
Divine Reason,
Marcus Aurelius Antoninus,
Moral and Intellectual Perfection,
OT,
Philosopher King,
Plato,
Stoicism,
Zeno of Citium
Lumber Futures vs Housing Starts and Jobless Claims | Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan (Nov 19, 2015) - Lumber prices tell us pretty reliably and ahead of time about what is going to happen to real estate prices and activity, plus interest rates. They can even tell us about what unemployment is going to do. |
Labels:
Housing Starts,
Jobless Claims,
Lumber,
Tom McClellan
SPX vs 23 Trading Day Cycle
This could be an ending diagonal triangle developing up into the winter solstice to top around 2,165. Since 1987, the DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to year end (HERE) |
Labels:
23 TD Cycle,
4 Lunar Month Cycle,
Ending Diagonal Triangle,
Jeffrey A. Hirsch,
Pattern,
Seasonality,
SPX,
US-Stocks
Thursday, November 19, 2015
NYSE To Eliminate "Stop Orders" From February 2016
The Cashless Society | A Totalitarian’s Dream Come True
Casey Research (Nov 19, 2015) - In
1661, Sweden became the first country in Europe to issue paper money.
Now it’s probably going to be the first in the world to eliminate it.
Sweden has already phased out most cash transactions. According to
Credit Suisse, 80% of all purchases in Sweden are electronic and don’t
involve cash. And that figure is rising. If the trend continues - and
there is nothing to suggest it won’t - Sweden could soon be the world’s
first cashless society. Sweden’s supply of physical currency has dropped
over 50% in the last six years. A couple of major Swedish banks no
longer carry cash. Virtually all Swedes pay for candy bars and coffee
electronically. Even homeless street vendors use mobile card readers [...] Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland all have negative interest rates. Negative interest rates mean the lender literally pays the borrower for the privilege of lending him money. It’s a bizarre, upside down concept. But negative rates are not some European anomaly. The Federal Reserve discussed the possibility of using negative interest rates in the U.S. at its last meeting. Negative rates could not exist in a free market. They destroy the impetus to save and build capital, which is the basis of prosperity.
Labels:
Casey Research,
Central Banking,
Sweden,
War on Cash
Best Seasonal Time of The Year
Credits: Nautilus Research |
Labels:
Nautilus Research,
Seasonality,
SPX,
US-Stocks
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle
Labels:
4 Lunar Month Cycle,
AstroFin,
Delta Cycles,
Financial Astrology,
SPX,
US-Stocks
EUR/USD Long-Term Low
Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 18, 2015) - EUR COT Analysis: Historically highest net long positions of commercial traders at the Euro low in March 2015 suggest that a Major Bottom in the Euro is in, and a 7.6 Year Rise of the Euro is about to start (chart HERE). |
HERE |
Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 19, 2015) - 15.23 Year Cycle in EUR/USD |
Labels:
15.23 Year Cycle,
Ahmed Farghaly,
COT,
Cyclic Vibrations,
Elliott Wave,
EUR/USD,
Timing Solution
Monday, November 16, 2015
SPX vs Sun Conjunct Mercury
Labels:
AstroFin,
Financial Astrology,
Maximum Elongation of Mercury,
Mercury,
SPX,
Sun,
US-Stocks
Saturday, November 14, 2015
Russell 2000 vs Inverted Lunar Year Cycle
Friday, November 13, 2015
DJIA vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle
See also HERE |
Labels:
118 Day Cyle,
AstroFin,
Delta Cycles,
DJIA,
Financial Astrology,
US-Stocks
Saturday, November 7, 2015
SPX vs Venus in Libra
Labels:
AstroFin,
Financial Astrology,
SPX,
Timing Solution,
US-Stocks,
Venus
SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle
Erin Heim (Nov 05, 2015) - The S&P 100 (OEX) just received a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. This signal generated when the 50-EMA crossed back above the 200-EMA. The Annual Cycle, the Presidential Cycle, and the Decennial Cycle are all strong into mid December, while the latter two project a major low in Q1 2016 followed by new market highs. This would be in line with Louise McWhirter's Theory of Stock Market Forecasting. |
Labels:
1 Lunar Year Cycle,
118 Day Cyle,
4 Lunar Month Cycle,
4 Lunar Year Cycle,
AstroFin,
Delta Cycles,
Erin Heim,
Fibonacci Price Ratios,
Financial Astrology,
Russell 2000,
SPX,
US-Stocks,
VIX
Friday, November 6, 2015
Long-Term Cycle Outlook On US-Stocks
Hard down into Q1 2016. Kitchin Cycle (42 months), 1/3 Kitchin Cycle (13 1/2 months), Wall Cycle (4 1/2 months - 100 days) Credits: Swing Trade Cycles |
Labels:
20 Week Cycle,
Kitchin Cycle,
Swing Trade Cycles,
US-Stocks,
Wall Cycle
Thursday, November 5, 2015
7 Year Cycle Bottoms
JustSignals (Nov 4, 2015) - Note that in the 20th century the "5th" year of the decade was a strong
year. In the early part of the 20th century this had been brought to
light by the late W.D. Gann and an analysis of the decennial patterns
throughout the century. In addition, there are two 10 year cycle
patterns. One bottoms in years ending in a "2" and tops in a year
ending in a "7" and the other bottoms in a year ending in a "4" and tops
in a year ending in a "9". This does not happen ALL the time, but it
does happen often. In fact you will see that when the "7 year cycle"
falls on a year ending in a "5" that the bottom falls in the year before
ending in a "4" probably because that cycle may be more dominant at the
time. Let's now see the "7 year cycles" going back to the early 1900's courtesy of Worden Bros. Charts. A green arrow notes the bottoms and since 1932 was a very dominant
bottom the count back and forward use that year as a starting point.
Each time the "7 year cycle" bottomed the strength varied. It was not the dominant cycle each time, but, there were many times it was and it made a meaningful bottom. Will this cycle continue and make a bottom in 2016? This cycle is now being watched by many many people. The market will not make it easy for this cycle to bottom. It is probable that head fake may be seen along the way. Be prepared and be careful.
Each time the "7 year cycle" bottomed the strength varied. It was not the dominant cycle each time, but, there were many times it was and it made a meaningful bottom. Will this cycle continue and make a bottom in 2016? This cycle is now being watched by many many people. The market will not make it easy for this cycle to bottom. It is probable that head fake may be seen along the way. Be prepared and be careful.
Labels:
7 Year Cycle,
DJIA,
JustSignals,
US-Stocks,
Worden Bros. Charts
German DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle
However, the Nasdaq dropped only by -0.1% or -2.65 points on Nov 4 (Wed) while the RASI was still rising, and Thomas Bulkowski remarks: Since 02/05/1971 the Nasdaq made 541 similar moves on a percentage basis. After those moves, the next day's: Average gain was 0.7% on 295 occasions. Average loss was -0.9% on 246 occasions. Expect the index to close higher 54.5% [on Nov 5]. |
Tekkie Suresh: "Rahu getting involved with Venus and Mars, points to a trough around November mid month, Should see a recovery thereafter." |
Jeff Hirsch (Nov 3, 2015) - In the most recent 21-year period spanning 1994 to 2014, November opens strong, peaks around the fourth trading day, trades lower till the eighth trading day, bounces mid-month, moves sideway to down during the week before Thanksgiving then higher to close out the month with gains ranging from just under 1.5% for Russell 2000 to over 2% for DJIA. |
Labels:
118 Day Cyle,
AstroFin,
DAX,
Delta Cycles,
Fibonacci Price Ratios,
Fibonacci Time Ratios,
Financial Astrology,
Jeffrey A. Hirsch,
NIFTY,
Pattern,
RASI,
Tekkie Suresh,
Thomas Bulkowski
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