This assassination attempt came precisely at the time our computer had provided. The week of July 15th was showing up when this year began. Look at the volatility and uncertainty ahead into September. Will they try again?
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Friday, July 12, 2024
ICT Macros & Quarterly Theory | Michael J. Huddleston & Daye
Algorithmic macros are timed directives for market maker price algorithms to seek and take out liquidity levels and imbalances in the market. Hence looking at a chart the first task is always to identify imbalances/inefficiencies, buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels. Look at previous day's highs and lows, session highs and lows, highs and lows in the last three days and the previous week.
There are 8 macros during the trading day:
#1 London Pre-Open Macro 02:33 - 03:00 EST/EDT
#2 London Open Macro 04:03 - 04:30
#3 New York AM Macro 08:50 - 09:10
#4 London Close Macro 09:50 - 10:10
#5 London Fix Macro 10:50 - 11:10
#6 New York AM Close Macro 11:50 - 12:10
#7 New York Lunch Macro 13:10 - 13:40
#8 New York PM Close Macro 15:15 - 15:45
#4 London Close Macro 09:50 - 10:10
#5 London Fix Macro 10:50 - 11:10
#6 New York AM Close Macro 11:50 - 12:10
#7 New York Lunch Macro 13:10 - 13:40
#8 New York PM Close Macro 15:15 - 15:45
ICT Killzones and Macros in the US Dollar Index 5 minute chart.
ICT Killzones and Macros in the S&P 500 E-mini Futures 5 minute chart.
Macros focus mainly on the first 20, 30, or 40 minutes of a trading hour (22.5 Minute Cycle).
► There
are no ICT macros during the Asian Session.
► The
macro between 9:50 and 10:10 is a time window where the market maker
algorithm starts running for liquidity (look for ICT Silver Bullet setup).
► The
period between 10:50 and 11:10 marks the end of the 3rd hour of the New York AM Session, and the first 90 minutes of floor trading (90 Minute Cycle).
► The transition
from the AM session to the lunch period leads either to
consolidation, reversal or continuation (6 Hour AMDX/XAMD Cycle).
Divison of the trading day according to the Quarterly Theory:
6 Hour Sessions, 90 Minute Quarters & 22.5 Minute Micro Cycles/Quarters (EST/EDT).
Based on market structure and price action prior and during a macro, three categories can be classified:
(1.) Manipulation Macros sweep both buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels.
(2.) Expansion Macros sweep liquidity only on the buy-side OR the sell-side (trending price).
(3.) Accumulation Macros are characterized by ranging prices.
Swing highs and lows of macro intervals can act as support and resistance.
Reference:
Michael J. Huddleston (July 9, 2023) - ICT Mentorship 2023 - Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro. (video)
Michael J. Huddleston (June 26, 2023) - 2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro. (video)
Michael J. Huddleston (June 26, 2023) - 2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro. (video)
See also:
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Algorithmic Price Delivery & Time Macros Intro.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - ICT Silver Bullet Strategy.
Darya Filipenka (2024) - Implementing Economic Calendar Events.
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Common Intra-Day Stock Market Patterns & Setups | Cory Mitchell
The US stock market has certain patterns, based on the time of day. These patterns, or tendencies, happen often enough for professional day traders to base their trading around them. One tendency is that the stock market can become less volatile, flatten out, and see less volume in and around the New York Lunch Hour. Many day traders stop trading about half an hour to an hour before this slowdown kicks in and don't trade again until well after the lunch hour, when volatility and volume pick up again.
9:30 (EST/EDT) : The stock market opens, and there is an initial push in one direction.
9:45 : The initial push often sees a significant reversal or pullback. This is often just a short-term shift, and then the original trending direction re-asserts itself.
Six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.
True Open, 6 Hour Cycle, 90 Minute Cycle, and 22.5 Minute Cycle.
11:15 – 11:30 : The market is heading into the lunch hour, and London is getting ready to close. This is when volatility will typically die out for a couple hours, but often the daily high or low will be tested around this time. European traders usually close out positions or accumulate a position before they finish for the day. Whether the highs or lows are tested or not, the market tends to "drift" for the next hour or more.
11:45 – 13:30 : This is lunch time in New York, plus a bit of a time buffer. Usually, this is the quietest time of the day, and often, day traders like to avoid it.
13:30 – 14:00 : If the lunch hour was calm, then expect a breakout of the range established during lunch hour. Often, the market will try to move in the direction it was trading in before the lunch hour doldrums set in.
14:00 – 14:45 : The close is getting closer, and many traders are trading with the trend, thinking it will continue into the close. That may happen, but expect some sharp reversals around this time, because on the flip side, many traders are quicker to take profits or move their trailing stops closer to the current price.
15:00 and 15:30 : These are big "shakeout" points, in that they will force many traders out of their positions. If a reversal of the prior trend occurs around this time, then the price is likely to move very strongly in the opposite direction. Even if the prior trend does sustain itself through these periods, expect some quick and sizable counter-trend moves.
As a day trader, it is best to be nimble and not get tied to one position or one direction. It can be very hard to hold a trade for very long between 3 p.m. and the close. The last hour of trading is the second most volatile hour of the trading day. Many day traders only trade the first hour and last hour of the trading day.
15:58 – 16:00 : The market closes at 16:00. After that, liquidity dries up in nearly all stocks and ETFs, except for the very active ones. It's common to close all positions a minute or more before the closing bell, unless you have orders placed to close your position on a closing auction or "cross."
Big News Events can throw a wrench in these tendencies, resulting in big trends, reversals, or movement through the lunch hour or other times that would be uncommon without some sort of external catalyst.
Darya Filipenka (October 31, 2023) - ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory.
Darya Filipenka (January 18, 2024) - Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups.
Darya Filipenka (January 18, 2024) - Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups.
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
S&P 500 vs Tri-Annual, Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly & Daily Pivot Levels
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Tri-Annual Pivot Levels (for 2022-2024).
Based on spectrum analysis, Sergey Tarassov forcasted a multiyear high in US-stocks sometime
around August 2024 between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.
By then the tri-annual R1 level at 6,019 could well be reached. R2 is at 6,928.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Yearly Pivot Levels (for 2024).
Tri-Annual and Yearly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for long-term investing or swing trading
Tri-Annual and Yearly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for long-term investing or swing trading
with a time frame of several months to a year or more.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Quarterly Pivot Levels (for Q3 July-September 2024).
Quarterly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for medium-term trading with a time frame of several
Quarterly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for medium-term trading with a time frame of several
weeks to a few months. They are useful for identifying intermediate support and resistance levels,
trend continuations, and potential corrections.
.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Monthly Pivot Levels (for (July 2024).
Monthly Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term to medium-term trading
Monthly Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term to medium-term trading
with a time frame of several days to a few weeks.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Weekly Pivot Levels (for July 07-12, 2024).
Weekly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for short-term trading with a time frame of one to several
Weekly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for short-term trading with a time frame of one to several
days to a week, to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend continuations, and potential reversals.
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) vs Daily Pivot Levels (for July 10, 2024).
Daily Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term and intraday trading with a time frame of several hours to a day in order to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and potential breakouts. Daily Pivots can be used to make quick trading decisions, adjust stop-losses, or set price targets for the current trading session.
Daily Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term and intraday trading with a time frame of several hours to a day in order to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and potential breakouts. Daily Pivots can be used to make quick trading decisions, adjust stop-losses, or set price targets for the current trading session.
Pivot Points, Support and Resistance levels are calculated based on previous high, low, and close prices. These levels can identify areas, where price may bounce, reverse or break through, and where to set entry, stop-loss and take-profit orders. This technique is valid on various timeframes. Common types are Floor (Trader) Pivots a.k.a. Standard or Traditional Pivots (= all charts above), Central Pivot Range (CPR), Fibonacci, Woodie, Classic, Camarilla and DeMark Pivot Points, each type having their own calculation method.
See also:
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Structural Characteristics of Bullish & Bearish Months | D'onte Goodridge
Traders want to find trending markets but often fail to see and understand the structural characteristics of bullish and bearish months. Both move in a similar fashion but inverse to one another. Here are the characteristics for the formation of a bullish month:
The first example is a daily chart of US Dollar versus Japanese Yen (USDJPY) during February 2023. The market was trending up. It was a bullish month. Let's identify the five key factors to a bullish month:
1. Price moves below the monthly opening price.
2. A swing low forms below the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily low (PDL) and reverses back to a previous daily high (PDH).
4. The market creates a market structure shift (MSS) to the upside and an Imbalance or Fair Value Gap (FVG).
5. Higher swing highs and higher swing lows form.
2. A swing low forms below the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily low (PDL) and reverses back to a previous daily high (PDH).
4. The market creates a market structure shift (MSS) to the upside and an Imbalance or Fair Value Gap (FVG).
5. Higher swing highs and higher swing lows form.
Looking at the daily candles in the USDJPY chart, we see the methodical sequence of a Bullish Month developing:
1. Price was movesg below the monthly opening price. Price stops below it, runs up, drops below it, runs up and continues the bullish trend.
2. A swing low below the month's open forms. This is a swing low because the candle on the left has a higher low and the candle on the right has a higher low, hence the low in the middle is the lowest point. To form a swing low only takes three bars.
3. Price purges a previous low and works back to a previous high. The following day price reverses back to the previous daily high, all happening within a three bar setup, creating a swing low, which is a purge on the previous daily low and a reversal back to a previous daily high.
4. Next the market creates a shift to the upside with speed through a previous swing high and a FVG.
5. And price created a new swing high and a higher swing low.
2. A swing low below the month's open forms. This is a swing low because the candle on the left has a higher low and the candle on the right has a higher low, hence the low in the middle is the lowest point. To form a swing low only takes three bars.
3. Price purges a previous low and works back to a previous high. The following day price reverses back to the previous daily high, all happening within a three bar setup, creating a swing low, which is a purge on the previous daily low and a reversal back to a previous daily high.
4. Next the market creates a shift to the upside with speed through a previous swing high and a FVG.
5. And price created a new swing high and a higher swing low.
The next example is a daily chart of Apple during January 2023. The same five criteria for a Bullish Month were met:
Now let's look at the five key factors to a Bearish Month:
1. Price moves above the monthly opening price.
2. A swing high forms above the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily high and reverses back to a previous daily low.
4. The market creates a shift to the downside and a FVG.
5. Lower swing highs and lower swing lows form.
2. A swing high forms above the month's open.
3. Price purges a previous daily high and reverses back to a previous daily low.
4. The market creates a shift to the downside and a FVG.
5. Lower swing highs and lower swing lows form.
The first example is a daily chart of British Pound versus US Dollar during August 2022. The market was trending down. Identify the above listed five criteria for the formation of a Bearish Month:
The last example is a daily chart of Gold during February 2023. Gold was in a down trend. Identify the structural criteria for the formation of a Bearish Month:
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
The Oops! Reversal Setup | Larry Williams
One of Larry Williams’ best-known setups is called Oops!: We are waiting for the market to open. We take as a reference the daily bar of yesterday, with its open, evolution and close. When the market opens, suppose a gap up occurs. A gap up takes place when the open is higher than the highest point that was reached on the previous day; a gap down occurs when the open is lower than the lowest traded point of the previous day.
When
a market opens at a very high level and there is a gap up, it is very
strong. So, we obviously suppose that it goes up. It will probably do it
but, if for some reason it starts to fall and then reaches the highest
level of yesterday, it is as if it said: "Oops!, I was wrong. I’m not strong, but weak."
In this case, we open a short position at this level. We enter short
because we imagine that the market (and the players in the market)
realizes it isn’t that strong. Actually, the market is weak, so it will
go down.
To use this setup, we obviously need a stop-loss whose size depends on the market we are trading. How do we close this position? Larry Williams proposed a bailout exit he called "first profitable open". This consists in staying in the position until, on the following day or days, the market opens somewhere below the entry level (because we are short). When that happens, we close the trade. So, we keep the position until we get the profit or, obviously, when we are stopped out. We can also close the position at the end of the same day. The one suggested by Larry Williams is however the best one, although it sounds quite weird. Believe me, the first profitable open is a very effective close of the position.
This is the basic version of the Oops! Anyway, I know Larry Williams made some tweaks to it. The Oops! works, but today this specific setup is quite rare. The reason is that many markets trade for 23 hours a day now. So, it’s quite hard to have a heavy gap in just one hour. Maybe, you can have one after the weekend, but normally it’s not there.
Monday, July 1, 2024
Buy & Sell Signals | Larry Williams
Buy Signal: Dump, dump, (dump), go sideways and pump a bit, one more small dump, then the pump.
Sell Signal: Pump, pump, (pump), go sideways and drop a bit, one more small pump, then the dump.
» If I've seen prices in a big downtrend, they move sideways, then drop again, but immediately come back up, back into that trading range, that's a buy signal. Why? Because during that trading range, there was accumulation going on. The fact that it broke down fills a lot of long positions. Professional money will buy there, and if it immediately comes back, then that nails it. They've been buying and I want to get long the market. «
Quoted from:
Larry Williams (2016) - Buy Signal. (video)
See also:
Saturday, June 29, 2024
How fast Superpowers can Collapse
In early 1991, Soviet citizens voted on the New Union Treaty which proposed to reform-rather than dissolve-the USSR. 76% of Soviet voters ultimately supported maintaining the federal system of the Soviet Union, including a majority in nine of the 15 republics. A year later, however, the USSR didn’t exist.
In 2021, in the US an astonishing 66% of Southern Republicans and 50% of independents were in favor of secession. The West Coast also showed strong support for secession but of a different political flavor, this time being mostly supported by Democrats.
Regardless of financial, political and military power, when time was due,
no empire leader had ever been able to prevent its supremacy from collapsing.
See also:
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