Cosmic Cluster Days in December 2015 - January 2016

A signal is triggered when the composite line breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel.
Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: Nov 28 (Sat), Dec 02 (Wed), Dec 05 (Sat), Dec 15 (Tue), Dec 17 (Thu), Dec 18 (Fri), Jan 02 (Sat),
Jan 03 (Sun), Jan 14 (Thu), Jan 18 (Mon), Jan 23 (Sat), Jan 24 (Sun), Feb 07 (Sun). Previous CCDs are HERE

SoLunar Map December 2015 - January 2016

This chart depicts the solunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced
also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the solunar forces
(= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). The solunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, apogee, perigee, and lunar declination,
components responsible for why there is no simple and reliable polarity of the market associated with the New Moon and Full Moon alone.
A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only
once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). The solunar rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) The FED, and (2.) by
sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots
in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later,
and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is
side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways
correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. Upcoming turn-days are: Nov 30 (Mon), Dec 03 (Thu), Dec 07 (Mon), Dec 11 (Fri),
Dec 14 (Mon), Dec 18 (Fri), Dec 22 (Tue), Dec 25 (Fri), Dec 29 (Tue), Jan 02 (Sat), Jan 05 (Tue), Jan 09 (Sat), Jan 13 (Wed), Jan 17 (Sun),
Jan 20 (Wed), Jan 24 (Sun), Jan 28 (Thu), Feb 01 (Mon). Cross check these dates with the Cosmic Cluster Days, the Bradley Indices, and
Jack Gillen's Sensitive Degrees. Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

Look back for clues at previous turns and what happened in the market 118 CD ago [= 4 lunar months],
354 CD ago [= 1 lunar year], 1,416 CD ago [= 4 lunar years] ago, and 1 Metonic Cycle ago (19 Solar Years = 235 lunar months  = 6,940 CD).
Please note: The market currently follows the inverted Delta mode: Nov 30 (Mon) = market low, Dec 03 (Thu) = market high, etc.
This may change again.

NATO's Loose Cannon Erdoğan Attacks Russia

Turkish F-16s Shoot Down Russian Sukhoi Su-24 Warplane (HERE)
The Russian jet crashed in the mountainous Jabal Turkmen area of
Latakia, where air strikes and fighting between rebel terrorists and
Syrian government forces were reported earlier on Tuesday. The Kremlin
recommended not jumping to conclusions. NATO is to hold an urgent meeting
to discuss the downing.

The ES futures dipped 1%.

European, Turkish and Russian markets plunged after confirmation that Turkey had shot down a Russian jet near its border with Syria and Moscow warning Ankara of "serious consequences".
 
Turkey’s Borsa Istanbul 100 was down almost four percent after Russian President Vladimir Putin called Ankara's action a “stab in the back made by accomplices of the terrorists.” He also warned Turkey of “very serious consequences” for relations.

The Russian stock market also fell on the news from Syria. As of 6:00pm MSK, the ruble-traded MICEX index was down 3.30 percent, while the dollar-denominated RTS index fell 3.56 percent. On Monday, the MICEX skyrocketed to 1,865 points, its highest level in seven years.

The crisis also affected European stock markets. London's FTSE was down 1.19 percent as of 3:00pm GMT. The markets in France and Germany were losing 1.90 and 1.42 percent, respectively.

The Turkish lira is the worst performer among the currencies. As of 3:00pm GMT the lira was down 0.87 percent against the US dollar.

The downing of a Russian jet fighter over Syria’s airspace was undertaken by Turkey in consultation with Washington and Brussels. Turkey did not take this decision without getting the greenlight from the Pentagon. Is this an act of revenge against Russia for bombing the US-sponsored Islamic State in Syria? The unspoken truth is that Russia is undermining US-NATO’s ground operations inside Syria. The latter are made up of various Al Qaeda affiliated formations which de facto constitute the foot-soldiers of the Western alliance. These ISIS and Al Nusrah rebel forces are in turn led by intelligence operatives and Western special forces, many of whom are deployed by private mercenary companies on contract to US-NATO (see also HERE + HERE).

One Year Is Not A Trend - Afghan Opium Production Decrease

The total area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan was estimated to be 183,000 hectares (163,000-202,000) in 2015, which represents a 19% decrease from 2014. Area under opium poppy cultivation has decreased for the first time since 2009 and is at its fourth highest level since the beginning of estimations in 1994; higher levels have been estimated in 2007, 2013 and 2014 (HERE). The decline is largely due, it seems, to natural causes (HERE) – crop failure in the traditional opium-growing heartland of the south – and market fluctuation, rather than anything the government or outside agencies have done. Moreover, the trend was bucked in areas of the north and west, where farmers, especially those living in insecure areas, have been putting more land under poppy cultivation.  

That lower yield was seen even in Kandahar where traders had distributed genetically-modified poppy seeds to farmers just before the planting season (in parts of Kandahar and Helmand poppy is planted twice a year). These seeds were supposed to boost the yield and shorten the growth cycle of the plants. The seeds originate in China where legal opium poppy cultivation is undertaken for pharmaceutical use, as is the case in over a dozen countries. “The genetically modified seeds shorten the growth cycle of the plant – to one to two months, instead of five to six months.” (HERE). However, 90 per cent of world illicit opiates are still produced in Afghanistan (opium and its derivatives morphine and heroin). Half of the Afghan opium is converted into heroin or morphine within Afghanistan. In 2014 the GDP of Afghanistan was US$ 21.2 billion, while the gross value of the Afghan opiate economy was estimated to be US$ 2.84 billion (US$ 3.1 billion in 2013). This value represents all income generated by the opium production that is believed to have remained in Afghanistan (HERE).

Insider Transactions Ratio Becoming More Bullish

Insiders are becoming more bullish. This is a positive. Insiders' timing has tended to be very good (more HERE)

How Many Ghost Cities Are There in China?

Map from a Baidu study on 20 cities with a large vacant housing area

China has experienced fast development during the past decades. In 1990, 26% of the Chinese population lived in cities. Today the urban population makes up about 54% of the total population. According to current estimates, 15 years from now China’s cities will contain 70% of the national population, amounting to about 1 billion people. From 1984 to 2010, the urban built up area has increased from 8,842 to 41,768 square kilometers. The urbanization speed is unprecedented in human history with so many buildings constructed in such a short time. The amount of concrete used in China in only three years (2011‐2013) is more than that used in U.S. in the 20th century. The fast urbanization of China has contributed to the high housing vacancy rate in some cities. Many new housing districts are built, but they far exceed the actual demand.

Tianducheng - Paris of the East (HERE)

In these cities, the population density is very low, and the residential districts are dark with few lights at night. Therefore, they are called “ghost cities". The “Ghost city” phenomenon has attracted much attention in recent years. China is the world's most populated country without a doubt has the world's largest number of empty homes. But take a closer look at two of the supposed ghost cities: Rushan and Kangbashi. Rushan is a fast-growing city on the coastline. Kangbashi is a mining town, a.k.a. Ordos, with explosive development that’s often held up as the prototypical Chinese ghost city. Both have large swatches of vacant housing, and they have both been described as ghost towns. But the vacancy patterns, right down to the hour in each city, reveals something else: That Rushan is actually fully occupied during one season, and during holidays, but then it empties out in the winter and during the week. The explanation is simple: It’s not a ghost town, it’s a resort town. Construction on Tianducheng, in China’s Zhejiang district, began in 2007. It was meant to be a luxurious gated community resembling Paris in every way possible. The highlight of the town is its 108 meter replica of the Eiffel tower, but plenty of Paris’ other landmarks have been faithfully recreated here. The development was built to house 100,000 people and to draw rural families into a bustling metropolitan area. As of 2007, (the last time the population was counted), only 2,000 souls inhabited the gated compound. The population seems to be dwindling, leading local media to refer to Tianducheng as a “ghost town.” Its expected completion date was in 2015. So the Paris of the East, it turns out, isn’t quite a ghost town – it hasn’t had the time to develop ghosts just yet. In a few years, this now-quiet development could very well be chock full of Chinese residents ready to begin their high standard life style.

Web Bot: Massive Crackdown in China - $64B Underground Bank Busted - Emergency FED Meeting Monday (Nov 23): Rate Hike?

HERE

SPX vs George Bayer's » A Time and Times and Half a Time «

More information on the concept HERE. Charted and calculated with Timing Solution

SPX vs Speed of Mercury + Moon

On Nov 25 (Wed) the heliocentric speed of Mercury reaches the cyclical minimum; the lunar speed's minimum follows the next day;
Thanksgiving Day will be the low in US-stock indices next week.

“Live As On A Mountain. Let Men See.”

“Men exist for the sake of one another”

[...] Consider that everything is opinion, and opinion is in thy power. [...] He who does not know what the world is, does not know where he is. And he who does not know for what purpose the world exists, does not know who he is, nor what the world is. But he who has failed in any one of these things could not even say for what purpose he exists himself. What then dost thou think of him who avoids or seeks the praise of those who applaud, of men who know not either where they are or who they are?

 [...] Say to yourself in the early morning: I shall meet today inquisitive, ungrateful, violent, treacherous, envious, uncharitable men. All these things have come upon them through ignorance of real good and ill. [...] Men exist for the sake of one another. Teach them then or bear with them. [...] Very little is needed to make a happy life. [...] Know the joy of life by piling good deed on good deed until no rift or cranny appears between them. [...] Have I done something for the general interest? Well then I have had my reward. Let this always be present to thy mind, and never stop doing such good.  [...] He who fears death either fears to lose all sensation or fears new sensations. In reality, you will either feel nothing at all, and therefore nothing evil, or else, if you can feel any sensations, you will be a new creature, and so will not have ceased to have life. [...] Live as on a mountain. Let men see, let them know a real man who lives according to nature. If they cannot endure him, let them kill him. For that is better than to live thus." - Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121 – murdered 180 AD): Meditations

Lumber Futures vs Housing Starts and Jobless Claims | Tom McClellan

Tom McClellan (Nov 19, 2015) - Lumber prices tell us pretty reliably and ahead of time about what is going to happen to real estate prices
and activity, plus interest rates. They can even tell us about what unemployment is going to do.

SPX vs 23 Trading Day Cycle

This could be an ending diagonal triangle developing up into the winter solstice to top around 2,165.
Since 1987, the DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to year end (HERE)

NYSE To Eliminate "Stop Orders" From February 2016

Sanity spells differently (HERE + HERE)

The Cashless Society | A Totalitarian’s Dream Come True

Casey Research (Nov 19, 2015) - In 1661, Sweden became the first country in Europe to issue paper money. Now it’s probably going to be the first in the world to eliminate it. Sweden has already phased out most cash transactions. According to Credit Suisse, 80% of all purchases in Sweden are electronic and don’t involve cash. And that figure is rising. If the trend continues - and there is nothing to suggest it won’t - Sweden could soon be the world’s first cashless society. Sweden’s supply of physical currency has dropped over 50% in the last six years. A couple of major Swedish banks no longer carry cash. Virtually all Swedes pay for candy bars and coffee electronically. Even homeless street vendors use mobile card readers [...] Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland all have negative interest rates. Negative interest rates mean the lender literally pays the borrower for the privilege of lending him money. It’s a bizarre, upside down concept. But negative rates are not some European anomaly. The Federal Reserve discussed the possibility of using negative interest rates in the U.S. at its last meeting. Negative rates could not exist in a free market. They destroy the impetus to save and build capital, which is the basis of prosperity.

Best Seasonal Time of The Year

Credits: Nautilus Research

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

EUR/USD Long-Term Low

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 18, 2015) - EUR COT Analysis: Historically highest net long positions of commercial traders at the Euro low in March 2015
suggest that a Major Bottom in the Euro is in, and a 7.6 Year Rise of the Euro is about to start (chart HERE).

HERE

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 19, 2015) - 15.23 Year Cycle in EUR/USD

SPX vs Sun Conjunct Mercury

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

Russell 2000 vs Inverted Lunar Year Cycle

DAX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

DJIA vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

See also HERE

SPX vs Venus in Libra

Low = Nov 25 (Wed)

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle

At times inversions in the 4 Lunar Year Cycle overlap with inversions in the Lunar Year Cycle and 4 Lunar Month Cycle. The result is conflict
and confusion in the short-term Delta count. The problem with the above inverted Delta count for the SPX is of course that the Russell 2000
closed the last week on a high. The Delta count for the Russell 2000 suggests a continuation of the up-move into Nov 11 (Wed) followed by a
decline into Nov 23 (Mon). This outlook is supported by the 4 lunar month rotation in the VIX where stochastics hint to further decline. Nov
11 is also New Moon and a turn day in the SoLunar Map. Again, a high in the SoLunar Map usually corresponds with a short-term stock market low.

Erin Heim (Nov 05, 2015) - The S&P 100 (OEX) just received a new Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal.
This signal generated when the 50-EMA crossed back above the 200-EMA.
The Annual Cycle, the Presidential Cycle, and the Decennial Cycle are all strong into mid December, while the latter two project a major low
in Q1 2016 followed by new market highs. This would be in line with Louise McWhirter's Theory of Stock Market Forecasting.

Long-Term Cycle Outlook On US-Stocks

Hard down into Q1 2016.
Kitchin Cycle (42 months), 1/3 Kitchin Cycle (13 1/2 months), Wall Cycle (4 1/2 months - 100 days)
Credits: Swing Trade Cycles

2015 vs 1998

Credits: Nautilus Research

7 Year Cycle Bottoms

JustSignals (Nov 4, 2015) - Note that in the 20th century the "5th" year of the decade was a strong year.  In the early part of the 20th century this had been brought to light by the late W.D. Gann and an analysis of the decennial patterns throughout the century.  In addition, there are two 10 year cycle patterns.  One bottoms in years ending in a "2" and tops in a year ending in a "7" and the other bottoms in a year ending in a "4" and tops in a year ending in a "9".  This does not happen ALL the time, but it does happen often.  In fact you will see that when the "7 year cycle" falls on a year ending in a "5" that the bottom falls in the year before ending in a "4" probably because that cycle may be more dominant at the time. Let's now see the "7 year cycles" going back to the early 1900's courtesy of Worden Bros. Charts. A green arrow notes the bottoms and since 1932 was a very dominant bottom the count back and forward use that year as a starting point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 














Each time the "7 year cycle" bottomed the strength varied.  It was not the dominant cycle each time, but, there were many times it was and it made a meaningful bottom. Will this cycle continue and make a bottom in 2016?  This cycle is now being watched by many many people.  The market will not make it easy for this cycle to bottom.  It is probable that head fake may be seen along the way.  Be prepared and be careful.