SPX vs True Node Speed | Upcoming Eclipses + Moon Wobbles

During lunar and solar eclipses the lunar node starts wobbling, that is it moves back and forth, retrograde, stationary, direct, etc. very
quickly (see Moon Wobbles in a NASA animation HERE). On Aug 30 (Tue) Mercury turns retrograde. The annular solar eclipse on Sep 1 (Thu)
produces a T-square to a Saturn-Neptune square. The cycle of the true Lunar Node is always exactly 18.613 Solar Years = 6,798.364 CD.
The 4th harmonic of 18.618 Solar Years is 1,699.591 CD = 4.6 Solar Years. Hence the Lunar Node moves 30° in the zodiac every 1.55 Solar
Years (= 18.613 months). 18.613 Solar Years / 12 = 18.613 months = 1.55 years = 80.9 weeks = 566.53 CD / 8 = 10.12 weeks = 55 TD (Trading
Days). More about the Rhythm of the Node HERE

Gold vs COT

Source: Fibbo SR (Aug 22, 2016)

Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro

Tony Caldaro (Aug 23, 2016) - Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.

A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.

When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart. 

Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade."

The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.

With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.

Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.

How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.

See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE

SPX vs Sun's Movement | 150 Degrees from Spring Equinox

In the late afternoon (EDT) of Aug 22 (Mon) the Sun had moved 150 solar degrees (= geocentric longitude = 155 CD) from the Spring Equinox.
More details on W.D. Gann's concepts of Natural Trading Days and Timing with Solar Degrees HERE + HERE.
Charted and calculated with Timing Solution.

Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations | Maurice Cotterell

There appears to be a correlation between the rise and fall of civilizations with the rise and fall of radiation from the sun. The graph shows a long-term envelope of sunspot activity derived from the center graph of Carbon 14. More carbon 14 is absorbed in the growth rings of tress during the sunspot minima. Sunspot minima also correlates with mini-ice ages and a winter severity index based on a mean for Paris and London - for the period shown. The Maya disappeared during a sunspot minimum (see also HERE + HERE + HERE)

Reference: 

Maurice Cotterell (2001) - The Tutankhamun Prophecies: The Sacred Secret of the Maya, Egyptians, and Freemasons. 

Presidential + Decennial + Annual Patterns | 2016 - 2019

See also HERE

DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Aug 19, 2016) - I am expecting a peak [in the DJIA] in the first-second quarter of next year [2017] and I believe it will be the peak of this century [...] Volatility will likely make a new historic high once the peak is realized as will be presented shortly. Let us first look at the DJIA from an Elliott wave perspective: 

Enlarge

I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.

The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.

The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.

Enlarge

The correlation of the 18 month cycle of the early 70's bull market while gold was selling off is very high and similar to the bull market that started early this year (middle chart above). They both occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance and hence their 80%+ correlation. Both indicators are bullish going into the new year and suggests that the current 'worst' part of the year is likely to disappoint those that strictly follow the annual cycle as it has proven to do so already.
 
The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.

SPX vs Presidential + Decennial + Annual Patterns | August 2016

SPX vs SoLunar Map | August 2016

Upcoming turn-days are:
Aug 18 (Thu), Aug 21 (Sun), Aug 25 (Thu), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu).
See also HERE

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2016

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are:
Aug 17 (Wed), Aug 23 (Tue), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu).
See also HERE

SPX vs AstroMetric Indicator | August 2016

Inigo Owen Jones | The Weather Prophet

 Inigo Owen Jones | See also HERE & HERE

The Australian long-range weather forecaster Inigo Owen Jones (1872-1954) is well written into 20th century folklore in the Australian bush. His forecasts, issued from 1925 to his death, were highly regarded by many Australian farmers, the general public and some of the media. His theory is based on the idea that the solar system is a vast electromagnetic body that is controlled by the magnetic fields of the planets. Jupiter is 1300 times larger than the Earth and has 12 moons, and the rotation of the vast orb takes ten times longer than Earth. This all combines to create a magnetic field much greater than that of the Earth. Inigo Jones discovered that when the major planets, e.g. Jupiter, moved towards the point of celestial longitude known as eighteen hours of right ascension, which points to the fixed star Vega, it caused sunspot minima. He also found that on each such occasion there was a more or less severe drought in eastern Australia. The working hypothesis from his observations is that the seasons are controlled by the magnetic fields of the four major planets and the Moon. There are longer droughts when there are more planets pointing towards Vega and floods when they are 180 degrees from Vega. Droughts cancel out floods if the planets are opposite each other at these points. Sunspot cycles are on average the same length as the cycle of Jupiter. Around the globe it is possible to show that greater sunspot activity causes more precipitation. Put simply, Inigo Jones believed that cyclical variations in the activity of the Sun - visible as sunspots - controlled the Earth’s climate, and that these variations were themselves largely determined by the orbits of Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. He considered five planetary-solar cycles of 35 years, 36 years, 59 years, 71 years and 84 years, and on looking back at the Australian Growing Season rainfall of 35, 36, 59, 71 and 84 years previously, he gained an appreciation of the expected rainfall for the forecast season or year in question.  

Australian Rainfall Cycles

If one wants to know what the weather would be like on 1 January next year, one would calculate the positions of the planets on that day and then look back through the record of weather observations to a time when the planetary positions were the same. If the locations of the planets matched, then so would the weather – more or less. Or perhaps less than more, for what seemed to set Jones apart from other weather prophets were the levels of complexity he added to this basic cyclical system. It is worth noting that to make predictions with this system one needs a very, very long, unbroken series of weather observations. Jones was fond of quoting the opinion of Queensland University’s professor of mathematics that a full test of his theory could not be made without 300 years of data.

Inigo Owen Jones (1938): Why I build the Crohamhurst Observatory (HERE)

Great Game 2.0 | Andrei Ilyich Fursov

Hit Syria – Target Russia – Contain China

Andrei Ilyich Fursov (Sep 10, 2012) -  The Greater Middle East with its ongoing controlled chaos separates China from the necessary sources of oil and gas, while at the same time it is cutting the Chinese off from the Western European part of Eurasia. The control over gas and oil from the Middle East means first of all control of the US over Europe, especially Western Europe, which to a great extent contributes to the weakening of the Russian Federation and its position [...] This logic determines the North Atlantic elite’s drive toward the East across the Arab world: Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Now they have arrived in Syria. But on the Syrian spot the Atlanticists faced another global power, comparable to them economically and even militarily, but representing a completely different civilization. This is China, with its drive towards the West. China’s drive is a kind of crusade for resources. Pakistan is already under the influence of China. The Chinese have a long-standing relationship with the Afghan Taliban. Iran is also an ally, though specific. The south of Iraq is basically controlled by Shiite allies of Iran. Geo-strategically and even geo-economically China does not only push ahead to the coast of the Indian Ocean, but from this perspective also to the Atlantic (the Mediterranean coast of Syria). Objectively, the Western crusaders ran into a Chinese wall in Syria.

SPX vs George Bayer's «A Time and Times and Half a Time»

More information on the concept HERE. Charted and calculated with Timing Solution

SPX vs Venus Latitude Cycle @ MIN @ MAX @ 0°

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

SPX vs Angles of Planets to Galactic Center | August 2016

SPX vs Mercury Speed | August 2016

SPX vs Mercury – Mars Speed Differential | August 2016

US Homeownership at Lowest Level in over 50 Years

The Census Bureau has been tracking homeownership rates in its data series going back
to 1965 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. In the second quarter 2016, the homeowner-
ship rate dropped to 62.9%, the lowest point on record.
Source: Wolf Street

SPX vs True Node Speed = Mean Node Speed + Extremes | August 2016

SoLunar Map | August - September 2016

Upcoming turn-days are: Jul 30 (Sat), Aug 03 (Wed), Aug 07 (Sun), Aug 11 (Thu), Aug 14 (Sun), Aug 18 (Thu), Aug 21 (Sun), Aug 25 (Thu),
Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 05 (Mon), Sep 09 (Fri), Sep 13 (Tue), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 20 (Tue), Sep 23 (Fri), Sep 27 (Tue), Oct 01 (Sat).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

These charts depict the solunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced
also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the solunar forces
(= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). The solunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and
some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so,
they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). The solunar rhythm is frequently disturbed by
(1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip
and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock
market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means
the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and
termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags.

Cosmic Cluster Days | August - September 2016

The basic assumption here is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements.
A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel.
Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are:
Jul 29 (Fri), Aug 01 (Mon), Aug 08 (Mon), Aug 09 (Tue), Aug 10 (Wed), Aug 14 (Sun), Aug 17 (Wed), Aug 23 (Tue), Aug 29 (Mon),
Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 04 (Sun), Sep 09 (Fri), Sep 15 (Thu), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 27 (Tue), Oct 06 (Thu). Previous CCDs are HERE

In 50 Years this has never failed to trigger a Bear Market | Jesse Felder

Jesse Felder (Jul 30, 2016 @ Zero Hedge) - Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use to define a bear market. In other words, buying the new highs in the S&P 500 today means you believe “this time is different.” It could turn out that way but history shows that sort of thinking to be very dangerous to your financial well-being.

On July 29 CNN's Fear & Greed Index indicated "Extreme Greed"
Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index

Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model on August 01, 2016 = Most 'euphoric' since August 2015.
Source: Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model

Weekly Chart Pattern Indicator Turned Bearish | Thomas Bulkowski

After the close on Friday, July 29th, Thomas Bulkowski's Chart Pattern Indicator for the S&P 500 Index turned bearish.
The indicator is a ratio of bullish patterns to the total of bullish and bearish patterns, expressed as a percentage.
More details on Thomas Bulkowski's Chart Pattern Indicator background (HERE)

The chart pattern indicator line is not as important as the signals which it generates, but I have included a chart of
the indicator itself so you can check for divergence. Divergence often gives hints as to which way the index moves in the
future. Look for lower/higher peaks in the indicator while the index is making flat or higher/lower peaks. The index will
often follow the indicator (HERE)
Warning:
If you use this indicator for periods shorter than weekly, you will likely be in for a nasty surprise. Due to the way I have it
configured, signals up to a week old can change or disappear. Thhe current sell signal may not be valid for another week or it
may change in a few days when more NR7s break out. Thus, this indicator is best used as a weekly signal (that
is, signals older than a week are reliable) of market trend (HERE)

U.S. Oil Industry | Record Exports and Worst Profits since 1999

Big Oil had a horrible Q2 quarter. So far in Q3, oil prices had averaged lower than in Q2, and refining margins are
much lower too. Exxon has the worst profit since 1999, and the industry cannot survive on current oil prices. “What
we’re seeing is that there’s just no place for the supermajors to hide”, Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones
& Co. in St. Louis, said in an interview. “Oil prices, natural gas, refining, it all looks very bad right now.” (HERE)

SPX vs Inverted 354 CD (Lunar Year) Cycle

The Lunar Year Cycle (Medium Term Delta) seems to have inverted recently (from L-L and H-H polarity to L-H and H-L polarity).
If the current polarity persists a major high in the S&P500 by mid August is likely.

SPY | Neural Network-Forecast | by Alphee Lavoie

Emerging Markets Business Cycle | Approaching Gradual Recovery

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research (Jul 21, 2016) - There are five phases of the emerging markets cycle:

1. Productive growth, a stage of moderate to high productivity-driven growth;
2. Misallocation, in which there is moderate growth driven by bad macro policies;
3. Adjustment;
4. Restoring Macro Stability, and finally
5. Gradual Recovery.

A large number of emerging markets have moved into the “restoring macro stability” recently — which means that growth is still weak, but the economy is stabilizing. Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Thailand are in this category Global GDP growth might get a boost next year, as some economies approach the end of the “emerging markets business cycle” and begin a gradual recovery.

These economies are not necessarily strong yet, but do show signs of increasing stable growth — except for Turkey, whose economy could be negatively impacted after the failed coup attempt. Thailand, for example, still has weak domestic demand and exports, but its economy is growing, partly due to robust growth in tourism, and Russian oil has managed to prosper even with today’s low prices. Brazil is still dealing with an economic crisis, which is exacerbated by its political one — but financial markets reacted favorably to news of the possibility of the president’s impeachment, and a Brazilian economist said that “the expected changes in the government and its economic policies could represent the beginning of a gradual return of investor confidence in Brazil,” and that the economy should return to growth by 2017.

If these countries move into the recovery stage in the next year, it would drive an acceleration in emerging market growth for the first time in four years. Morgan Stanley expects the GDP growth of emerging markets, excluding China, to accelerate from 2.7% to 3.8% in 2017. Those markets together make up 37% of global GDP. Countries that are already in this “recovery” phase include Mexico, which has the 11th-high GDP in the world but is still considered a developing country, and India, which has been called the “biggest turnaround story” in emerging markets because of its slow, gradual growth over the past few years. Meanwhile, China is still in the “misallocation” stage — the one with moderate growth but bad macroeconomic policies. Also in this category is Korea, whose low growth has been largely caused by declining trade with China.