SPX vs Planet’s Declinations out of Bound

Planet’s declinations exceeding the extremes of the Sun's declination (= ± 23.27⁰ geocentric or ±7.15⁰ heliocentric) often correlates with short term market turns.  

Mars went beyond - 23.27⁰ on October 26 (Fri), and Mercury will follow on November 6 (Sun). 

Mars' Declination out of Bound 
02.13.2010 SA - 03.15.2010 MO
11.19.2010 FR - 12.29.2010 WD
07.24.2011 SU - 08.22.2011 MO
10.26.2012 FR - 12.10.2012 MO
06.29.2013 SA - 08.03.2013 SA
09.29.2014 MO - 11.21.2014 FR
06.07.2015 SU - 07.17.2015 FR

Venus Declination out of Bound 
05.06.2010 TH - 06.08.2010 TU
11.14.2011 MO - 12.14.2011 WD
04.03.2012 TU - 06.04.2012 MO
05.24.2013 FR - 06.19.2013 WD
10.11.2013 FR - 12.07.2013 SA
12.02.2014 TU - 12.25.2014 TH
04.18.2015 SA - 06.02.2015 TU

Mercury's Declination out of Bound 
06.22.2010 TU - 07.06.2010 TU
11.14.2010 SU - 12.13.2010 MO
06.11.2011 SA - 06.28.2011 TU
11.06.2011 SU - 11.29.2011 TU
01.08.2012 SU - 01.21.2012 SA
05.31.2012 TH - 06.20.2012 WD
11.01.2012 TH - 11.07.2012 WD
12.27.2012 TH - 01.15.2013 TU
05.21.2013 TU - 06.13.2013 TH
12.17.2013 TU - 01.08.2014 WD
05.11.2014 SU - 06.05.2014 TH
12.07.2014 SU - 01.01.2015 TH

(Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution). 

STD Red Week (Oct 29 - Nov 2)

www.chartsedge.com

While the S&P 500 futures continue to test support at 1400, Wallstreet's floor markets will be closed on Monday as New York braces for Hurricane Sandy. 

However,  STD Red Weeks are usually trenders from Tuesday a.m. to Friday a.m., that is: Monday and Friday usually reverse the Tuesday - Thursday trend. 

We expect a short term high around Full Moon (that is inverted to Mike Korell's forecast). If the typical Red-Week Pattern plays out, the low of the week should print by Thursday p.m. - Friday a.m., and will be followed by another decline with lower-lows into the Election-Week. As outlined earlier, the ITD suggests the high (some Elliott-Wave #4 or #2) could be reached as early as Tuesday-Wednesday (HERE).

This week includes the last 3 trading days of October and the first 2 trading days of November during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle, and the bias of the S&P 500 in the Election Year Seasonal Chart is up. 

STD Blue Week - Update

For the week we expect some sort of a W-shape:

Monday (Oct 22) morning = High 
afternoon = Low
close = High of the Day
Tuesday (Oct 23) morning into noon = retest of Low, then up into the close 
Wednesday (Oct 24) = up 

Thursday (Oct 25) morning = High
Thursday (Oct 25) afternoon = retest of Lows, turn up into end of week

STD Blue Week (October 22 - 26)

STD Blue Days are usually choppy and tricky to trade. Statistically look back, STD Blue Days and STD Blue Weeks are M-shaped or W-shaped, and the loss-trades are above average. STD Red and Green days and weeks are much better for trends to work.

Monday - Tuesday, October 22-23, may turn out to be similar or inverse to Thursday - Friday of last week. Assuming there was no inversion on the STD-red day (Sunday, Oct 21), a ST-high on Monday, followed by another swing down into late Tuesday is likely. Also consider with past Blue Week patterns, especially 4 weeks back, 4 lunar months back, and 1 lunar year back.

www.chartsedge.com

As outlined HERE, the ITD #b Low is scheduled to develop around Oct 21-23, and should be followed by a rally into the ITD #6 High around Oct 29 = Full Moon.  

This forecast also matches Mike Korrell's latest projection (HERE), but contradicts the view of Francis Bussiere: ST high on Oct 24, down into Full Moon (HERE).

www.astrocycle.net

The McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indices for NYSE and Nasdaq both point to lower prices.

The $TRIN (NYSE - Short-Term trading Arms Index) had reached the upper Bollinger Band. This alone may suggest a bounce or reversal in equities. However, MACD and Stochastic have just turned up, and support the idea of a rising $TRIN, which is the continuation of the down-trend in stocks.   

German DAX - FTSE - SPX - Nikkei vs Delta

German DAX: 
Intermediate-Term-Delta #5 Low = Oct 11
ITD #a High = Oct 17
ITD #b L = Oct 22-24
ITD #6 H = Oct 31 = Medium-Term-Delta # 5 H?
ITD #7 L = Nov 5

 

British FTSE:
ITD #5 H = Oct 16
ITD #6 L = Oct 21-24
ITD #7 H = Oct 31 = MTD # 5 H ?

 

S&P 500:
ITD #5 L = Oct 12
ITD #a H = Oct 16
ITD #b L = Oct 21-23
ITD #6 H = Oct 29 = MTD # 5 H ?
ITD #7 L = Nov 7

Nikkei:
ITD #6 Low = Oct 15
ITD #7 High = Oct 17
ITD #8 L = Oct 22-24
ITD #9 H = Oct 31 = MTD # 8 H?
ITD #10 L = Nov 8
ITD #11 H = Nov 14 = MTD # 8 H?

Carl Futia - Top of Domed House ?

Credits: Carl Futia

... On October 5 the Dow put it its highest print and highest close of the bull market which started from the March 2009 low point. It is easy to see the "squarish" topping pattern characteristic of domed house tops. These usually look like lopsided head and shoulders tops. If this one runs true to form there should be a rally from yesterday's low to a lower top which would be point 25 on the chart. One fact which supports this interpretation is that the standard time count of 7 months 10 days if started from point 15 predicts a high in early October.

It is certainly possible that I am a bit early in my interpretation here. Perhaps the October 5 top will turn out to be point 21 instead of point 23.

...The strongest single piece of bullish evidence I see is that the majority of investors surveyed by AAII are bearish. I think it would be unprecedented for a bear market to start under such conditions. But precedents are made to be broken as are all statistical records. The other piece of bullish evidence can be found in the action of the bull market leaders, Google and Apple, both of which made historical highs within the past couple of weeks. Another leading sector, home building, is also at new bull market highs.

Looking at all this evidence I'd say that the bearish factors are ones which are not helpful for precise timing. The AAII sentiment number suggests that my call of point 23 is early, but as I said above that just means that the domed house will take more time to develop its top. So I think the best way to approach this market is to defer a bear market prognosis until the green trend line is broken or until another point 23 or point 27 at new bull market highs becomes visible when AAII sentiment is bullish, not bearish as it is now.  

Credits: Carl Futia. 

See also HERE

German DAX vs Delta & Space Weather

ITD #1 = Sep 5 L
ITD #2 = Sep 21 H = MTD #5 ?
ITD #3 = Sep 28 L (Full Moon)
ITD #4 = Oct 5 H
ITD #5 = Oct 10-11 L
ITD #y = Oct 15-16 H (New Moon)
ITD #z = Oct 22-24 L
ITD #6 = Oct 26-29 H = MTD #5 ? (Full Moon)
ITD #7 = Nov 7 L = MTD #6 ?

HERE + HERE + HERE

Since October 8 strong geomagnetic storms are pressing on traders' mood, and more M-class flares along with high values in the K Index should be expected into October 10-12 (HERE + HERE).

When a solar flare or CME happens, it can take up to 2 days to impact the Earth, depending on the solar wind's speed. Therefore, expecting drops in the stock market up to two days after large flares is reasonable (HERE + HERE).

www.astrocycle.net

20th Century Hyperinflations

Credits: Miles Franklin

Amateur Investors (AI)

SPX adjusted by Consumer Price Index (CPI)

www.investmenttools.com

2013 - Peaks in Solar Cycle #24, Stocks and Commodities

Credits: John Hampson

... Solar peaks occur roughly every 11 years and secular peaks in equities and commodities occur close to solar peaks. There is a sine wave in long term real stocks and an opposite-polarity sine wave in long term real commodities, both which have around a 33 year (equivalent to 3 solar cycles or 1 lunisolar cycle) duration ... Treasuries (or inverse rates/yields) move in around a 66 year cycle (2 lunisolar cycles) with peaks and troughs converging with secular commodities peaks. The result is we see two different kinds of secular commodities bulls: one set against rates moving to a peak, and one set against rates moving to nothing ...

Major Stock Market Rallies of last 111 Years Compared

www.chartoftheday.com
 
The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally late last week. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally (and in response to several requests), all major market rallies of the last 111 years are plotted on today's chart. 

Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow with the majority of rallies referred to by a label which states the year in which the rally began ... a rally is being defined as an advance that follows a 30% decline (i.e. a major bear market) ... the Dow has begun a major rally 13 times over the past 111 years which equates to an average of one rally every 8.5 years ... As it stands right now, the current Dow rally that began in March 2009 (blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude. However, when compared to the most recent post-major bear market rally (i.e. the rally that began in 2002), the current rally has already surpassed it in magnitude and required less time to do so.

Relationships between Centimeter, Inch, Year, and Month

What do inches and centimeters have to do with astronomy? That's what first popped into my mind when I discovered this amazing relationship. Suppose you have a circle with a diameter measured in centimeters and a magnitude equal to exactly 10 synodic months. We'll use the value of 29.53 for the length of the synodic month. It turns out that the magnitude of the circumference of the circle, measured in inches matches the length of the tropical year in days.

Math:
10 × 29.53 cm × π = 927.71 cm
927.71 cm ÷ 2.54 cm/inch = 365.24 inches 

Credits: www.the-light.com

SPX vs Mars - North Node Cycle

Hard aspects between Mars and the Vedic Dragon (= Rahu = Lunar North Node) oftentimes go along with CITs in financial markets (HERE). A conjunction is due on October 2nd - the next projected 10 Day Hurst-Cycle Low.

 

















02.06.2011 00:27 (Sun) = MAR 45° North Node
03.29.2011 12:09 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
05.22.2011 15:00 (Sun) = MAR 135° North Node
07.23.2011 13:21 (Sat) = MAR 180° North Node
09.23.2011 12:30 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
12.13.2011 01:07 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
03.19.2012 15:27 (Mon) = MAR 90° North Node
04.30.2012 18:52 (Mon) = MAR 90° North Node
08.03.2012 07:42 (Fri) = MAR 45° North Node
10.02.2012 10:51 (Tue) = MAR 0° North Node
12.01.2012 09:01 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
01.24.2013 14:20 (Thu) = MAR 90° North Node
03.15.2013 22:58 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
05.13.2013 01:15 (Mon) = MAR 180° North Node
07.12.2013 07:56 (Fri) = MAR 135° North Node
09.10.2013 20:37 (Tue) = MAR 90° North Node
11.23.2013 10:38 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
07.13.2014 20:19 (Sun) = MAR 0° North Node
09.20.2014 07:18 (Sat) = MAR 45° North Node
11.20.2014 06:00 (Thu) = MAR 90° North Node
01.10.2015 14:15 (Sat) = MAR 135° North Node 

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution. Also credits to Raj Times and Cycles

S&P 500 Today = Eurodollar COT 1 Year Ago | Tom McClellan

In May 2011 Tom McClellan unveiled a sensational discovery:

There are some jewels in the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:  ... Commercial traders' net positions in eurodollar futures shifted forward by one year foretell the the stock market.
... Let's pause a minute to let that deep point sink in. Commercial eurodollar traders seem to "know" a year in advance what the stock market is going to do.  It is not a perfect correlation, but it is a darned good one.  I'm not sure what makes this work, but I have seen that it has worked great since about 1997 ... The term "eurodollars" should not be confused with the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro (HERE & HERE).

Projected CITs for the S&P 500 are (since COT data is weekly, CITs are +/-):

09/13/2012 high
09/20/2012 low
10/18/2012 high
11/08/2012 low
11/29/2012 HIGH of the Year
12/20/2012 low
01/03/2013 high
etc. 

SPX vs Delta - Update

A high (ITD #3) around Equinox - a Gann Natural Trading Day clustered with more astro-events (HERE & HERE) - would also be perfectly in line with the seasonal pattern:

2008-11-05 High + 1416 CD = Sep 22 (Sat) = 4 Lunar Year Cycle (LTD)
2011-10-04 Low + 354 CD = Sep 22 (Sat) = 1 Lunar Year Cycle inverted (MTD)
2012-05-29 High + 118 CD = Sep 24 (Mon) = 4 Lunation Cycle (ITD)





Though THE high projected for late August is not in yet, the 1972-2012 correlation = 40 year Cycle has increased to 89% ! 

SPX vs Solar Activity

Last 30 Days Daily Solar Data

Solar flares and CMEs are intense flashes of extreme radiation emanating from the Sun.  

The ejected material is a plasma consisting primarily of electrons and protons, but may contain small quantities of heavier elements such as helium, oxygen, and even iron. 

Most solar flares and coronal mass ejections originate in magnetically active regions around visible sunspot groupings. 

Near solar maxima the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima there is about one CME every five days (see also HERE).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

Solar flares are classified according to the peak flux as Class A, -B, -C, -M or -X Flares (ranged from small to large). Daily Solar Data, a 3-day Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity, as well as a 45 Day F10.7cm Flux Forecast are provided free of charge by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

For the purpose of market timing only Class M and -X flares are relevant. However, not every flare ejected by the Sun is directed towards the Earth. But if it is, the solar storm takes 2 days +/- to trigger a geomagnetic storm. In 2003, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta did a study on the effects of solar storms on stock market traders: "Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices."   

www.helios.izmiran.rssi.ru

Therefore, some 2 days +/- after an earth-directed Class M or Class X flare a drop in the stock markets should be expected.

So what about the latest Class M flares on September 8th and 9th? They will miss to hit the Earth (see also HERE). Instead various 10.7cm Flux Forecasts suggest the stock markets will keep wedging up into around the New Moon (Sep 15) or even the Equinox (Sep 22). Please note: Solar-, lunar- and other astro-indicators frequently fail around Equinoxes (inversion periods are: March 21 - April 7, , June 7 - July 7, September 9 - October 11, December 8 - January 6).

SPX vs Alignments & Oppositions of Mercury-Venus-Jupiter-Earth

EAR and/or MER and/or VEN and/or JUP = 0°or 180° to EAR and/or MER and/or VEN and/or JUP [HELIO - MAXORB 1°]

07.29.2012 - 07.30.2012
08.12.2012 - 08.13.2012
09.10.2012 - 09.11.2012
09.20.2012 - 09.21.2012
10.04.2012 - 10.05.2012
10.21.2012 - 10.22.2012
11.18.2012 - 11.19.2012
11.20.2012 - 11.21.2012
12.03.2012 - 12.04.2012
12.18.2012 - 12.19.2012
01.03.2013 - 01.04.2013
01.16.2013 - 01.17.2013
01.18.2013 - 01.19.2013
02.17.2013 - 02.18.2013
02.28.2013 - 03.01.2013
03.04.2013 - 03.05.2013
03.28.2013 - 03.30.2013
04.04.2013 - 04.05.2013
05.12.2013 - 05.13.2013
05.16.2013 - 05.19.2013
06.19.2013 - 06.21.2013
07.03.2013 - 07.04.2013
07.10.2013 - 07.11.2013
08.05.2013 - 08.06.2013
08.25.2013 - 08.26.2013
09.11.2013 - 09.12.2013
10.02.2013 - 10.03.2013
10.20.2013 - 10.21.2013
11.02.2013 - 11.03.2013
12.22.2013 - 12.23.2013
12.29.2013 - 12.30.2013 

Calculated and charted with Sergey Tarassov's Timing Solution.

DJIA vs 35.21 Three Year Cycle

HighRev [Sep. 9th, 2012]: The 47 Year Cycle and the 35.21 Three Year Cycle are variations of the Kitchin Cycle. "I was originally working with a rough 7 year cycle working off the momentum lows on the technicals using the 2002-2003 lows and the 2008-2009 lows as my principal reference points, but that did not backtest well. 

As a result I started looking at the 4 Year Kitchin Cycle (which is really a 41 month cycle) that had failed in the late 1940’s, and when it revived, it was out of step with its previous cycle framework. In shifting the Kitchin cycle and using the 1932 low as the start date, the results were also lackluster. 

Since I wanted something that would tie in the 1932 low with the 2002 and 2009 lows, and also be fairly reliable in between, I discarded the Kitchin Cycle and started looking at variations. As a result, I came up with this “35.21 Three Year Cycle”, which in turn became the basis for the larger cycles and sub-cycles. 

I especially like the early cycle lows matching price lows, mid-cycle lows sometimes seeing inversions in a strongly trending environment, and late cycle lows oscillating between price lows and price highs. As with all cycles, there’s no such thing as perfection. Sometimes they come early, sometimes they come late, and sometimes they’re on time. The actual 47 year low came late with regards to the idealized low, but only missed by just over a 5% time window when looking at it on a century to century time frame, and that isn’t bad at all for a cycle low (and when looking at the 3 year cycle where there are a good many lows that came as much as 6 months early/late, that “miss” looks even better). Another thing I really like about this cycle is how the longer term 47 year cycle takes into account the two main secular bulls coming out of the 1932 lows. I also got the 1932, 2002, 2009, and a good many other important lows to “line up”, and that, in what I like to call, "a best fit" pattern."

OT - Impact & Explosion on Jupiter

http://georgeastro.weebly.com/jupiter.html

Apparently, something hit Jupiter during the early hours of Sept. 10th (11:35 UT), igniting a ferocious fireball in the giant planet's cloudtops. Amateur astronomer Dan Peterson Racine, Wisconsin, saw it first through his Meade 12" LX200 telescope. "It was a bright white flash that lasted only 1.5 - 2 seconds," he reports. Another amateur astronomer, George Hall of Dallas, Texas, was video-recording Jupiter at the time, and he confirmed the fireball with this video screenshot (left).

The fireball was probably caused by a small asteroid or comet hitting Jupiter. Similar impacts were observed in June and August 2010. An analysis of those earlier events suggests that Jupiter is frequently struck by 10 meter-class asteroids -one of the hazards of orbiting near the asteroid belt and having such a strong gravitational pull.

HERE

Astronomers around the world will now begin monitoring the impact site for signs of debris - either the cindery remains of the impactor or material dredged up from beneath Jupiter's cloud tops. Some impacts do produce such debris, while others don't. See also HERE & HERE 

Many think this is how and where planets and moons are created, and Immanuel Velikovsky's Worlds in Collision (1950) comes to light, proposing that around the 15th century BCE, Venus was ejected from Jupiter as a comet or comet-like object, passed near Earth (an actual collision is not mentioned).

The object changed Earth's orbit and axis, causing innumerable catastrophes which were mentioned in early mythologies and religions around the world. 

Fifty-two years later, it passed close by again, stopping the Earth's rotation for a while and causing more catastrophes. Then, in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE, Mars (itself displaced by Venus) made close approaches to the Earth; this incident caused a new round of disturbances and disasters. 

After that, the current "celestial order" was established. The courses of the planets stabilized over the centuries and Venus gradually became a "normal" planet. See also HERE

On September 9th the San Cristobal volcano in Nicaragua has rumbled to life with three explosions, forcing the evacuation of 3,000 residents. 

San Cristobal, located 135 km northwest of Managua, is one of the country’s most active volcanoes. Since Thursday, when an earthquake of 7.6-magnitude rocked neighboring Costa Rica and was also felt in Nicaragua.
People are now fearing the powerful quake would have an “impact on the activation” on several other active volcanoes in the region. See also HERE

Solar Activity vs Earthquakes and Volcanoes: When solar activity increases, the corpuscular emission and solar magnetic field strength increase rapidly as well, inducing ring currents in various layers of Earth, particularly, in lithosphere and astheposphere.  Currents in asthenosphere appeared as a result of solar activity increase cause mantle heating, its plasticity growth and as a result convection currents acceleration. Convection currents acceleration leads to spreading acceleration, and increase of mantle temperature – to its heat expansion while Earth extension is taken place due to spreading. In the periods of solar activity decrease the ring currents magnitude inducing in the mantle, decreases as well and as a result there decreases temperature and Earth compression, accompanying by the process of subduction. See also HERE

Researchers have noticed coincidence between sunspot minima and occurrences of major earthquakes or volcanoes.The Earth’s iron core (source of the Earth’s magnetic field, i.e. the Earth’s dynamo) does not rotate around the same axes as the Earth itself, hence dislocation of magnetic poles. Jupiter-Saturn gravitational forces pull the Sun around its barycentre. The same forces pull the Earth’s mass centre away from its orbital trajectory, the eccentricity of the Earth’s iron core to the rest of its bodily mass causing drift of its magnetic poles. It follows that a certain major planets configuration will cause disturbances within the Earth’s interior which may initiate major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. See also HERE & HERE