STD Blue Week - Update

For the week we expect some sort of a W-shape:

Monday (Oct 22) morning = High 
afternoon = Low
close = High of the Day
Tuesday (Oct 23) morning into noon = retest of Low, then up into the close 
Wednesday (Oct 24) = up 

Thursday (Oct 25) morning = High
Thursday (Oct 25) afternoon = retest of Lows, turn up into end of week

STD Blue Week (October 22 - 26)

STD Blue Days are usually choppy and tricky to trade. Statistically look back, STD Blue Days and STD Blue Weeks are M-shaped or W-shaped, and the loss-trades are above average. STD Red and Green days and weeks are much better for trends to work.

Monday - Tuesday, October 22-23, may turn out to be similar or inverse to Thursday - Friday of last week. Assuming there was no inversion on the STD-red day (Sunday, Oct 21), a ST-high on Monday, followed by another swing down into late Tuesday is likely. Also consider with past Blue Week patterns, especially 4 weeks back, 4 lunar months back, and 1 lunar year back.

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As outlined HERE, the ITD #b Low is scheduled to develop around Oct 21-23, and should be followed by a rally into the ITD #6 High around Oct 29 = Full Moon.  

This forecast also matches Mike Korrell's latest projection (HERE), but contradicts the view of Francis Bussiere: ST high on Oct 24, down into Full Moon (HERE).

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The McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indices for NYSE and Nasdaq both point to lower prices.

The $TRIN (NYSE - Short-Term trading Arms Index) had reached the upper Bollinger Band. This alone may suggest a bounce or reversal in equities. However, MACD and Stochastic have just turned up, and support the idea of a rising $TRIN, which is the continuation of the down-trend in stocks.   

STD Blue Week (July 30 - August 3)

For previous Short-Term-Delta Blue Weeks in the S&P 500 see also HERE

During July each rally has led to higher highs before being sold off by about 50 points. Each of the lows has been accompanied by positive divergences. Short term momentum ended last week extremely overbought. Various indications point to a small pullback before the stock market moves higher. Such a pullback might last for only one day. The FOMC is coming up on Wednesday, August 1st. Normally a new month brings in new money producing higher prices in the later part of the week, August 1-3. However, on Monday the market is likely to dip and then be alert for whether Thursday, August 2 will be a high or low. A pullback may only retest the 1350's to 1360 (HERE).

The latest COT-signals are bullish for SPX and silver, but bearish for NDX and natural gas, while copper goes to cash after two weeks bearish, and the 30-year Treasury bond goes bearish (HERE).

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STD Blue Week (July 2-6)

STD Blue Days are usually choppy and tricky to trade, and STD Blue Weeks are very much the same. Statistically look back, STD Blue Days and STD Blue Weeks are when you'll loose more trades. STD Red and Green days and weeks are much better for trends to work. You may wan't to take advantage of the 4th of July-holiday and go fishing this week. 

Monday - Tuesday, July 2-3, may turn out similar or inverse to Thursday - Friday of last week. Also compare past Blue Week patterns, especially 4 weeks and 4 lunations back.

The current COT-signal is bullish and so is the VIX (see below). 

July 3 is Full Moon; tidal CITs are June 29, July 4 and July 12. On the 4th of July the Earth will be farthest from the Sun (Aphelion).

2012-07-02 (Mon) = Moon @ Max S-Declination
2012-07-02 (Mon) = VEN 120° JUP [helio]
2012-07-03 (Tue) = Full Moon
2012-07-03 (Tue) = VEN 90° SAT [helio]
2012-07-04 (Wed) = Earth @ Aphelion
2012-07-05 (Thu) = MER 180° JUP [helio]
2012-07-06 (Fri) = MER 90° NEP [helio]
2012-07-07 (Sat) = VEN 60° URA [helio]
2012-07-07 (Sat) = MER 120° URA [helio]

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