Sunday, December 28, 2025

Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment | Andrew Hoese

Silver's recent surge marks the early stage of a major bull market, driven by long-term structural forces rather than short-term speculation. I challenge analysts who date macro bull cycles from 2000 due to recency bias, arguing instead that the true departure from sound money began with the Federal Reserve's establishment or the post-1933 era of gold confiscation and the Great Depression. 

Silver/S&P 500 ratio (XAGUSD/SPX, monthly closes), 1909-2025.
 
Applying this to silver, the Silver/S&P 500 ratio shows a double bottom breaking higher in 2020 after decades of decline, confirming a long-term uptrend. This aligns with a medium-term squeeze and short-term breakout, creating ideal conditions for significant gains. Short-term pullbacks, though possible after the recent advance, are immaterial against these broader supports. Trading the short term without long-term alignment poses the primary risk.
 
Broader macro dynamics reinforce this outlook. A weakening US dollar is prompting rotation into precious metals (Silver, Gold, Platinum), emerging markets (e.g., Africa and Latin America ETFs), and commodities. Declining US shale oil production—the first year-over-year drop in history—signals supply constraints that could drive substantial inflation, necessitating further money printing, higher rates, and accelerated dollar depreciation in a self-reinforcing cycle favoring hard assets.
 
Silver/Gold ratio (XAGUSD/XAUUSD, monthly closes), 1931-2025.
 
Supporting evidence appears in parallel breakouts: gold miners versus the S&P 500, Silver versus Gold (a massive base signaling outperformance), and currencies like the Swiss franc against the dollar—all linked primarily to dollar weakness rather than isolated fundamentals. I advise against complexity via frequent trading, premature profit-taking, or rotations. Instead, acquire undervalued assets and hold through the cycle. This commodity upswing is nascent; base metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Zinc, Lead), energy, and agriculture should join precious metals higher in 2026.
 
Successful investing requires aligning three timeframes: short-term (highly volatile and news-driven), medium-term (a few years, moderately stable), and long-term (a decade or more, frequently ignored). The greatest opportunities emerge when all are bullish. While short-term timing is notoriously difficult—explaining widespread losses among day traders—favorable long- and medium-term trends allow investors to endure temporary setbacks through patient holding of undervalued positions. 
 
S&P 500/Silver (SPX/XAGUSD, monthly closes), 1890-2025.
 
Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.
 
On a logarithmic scale, Silver's advance remains in its infancy, poised for a sustained structural repricing distinct from prior cycles. Investors should resist selling early, as the ultimate magnitude may surpass expectations.

 
 » An epic Silver fractal is playing out. « 
 
Commodity Supercycles from 1805 to 2045.
 
» A case can be made for $147. Big question is from where we get a big correction. « 
Peter Brandt, December 26, 2025.
  
 
See also: 
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Saturday, December 27, 2025

The Vedic Astrology of Silver in 2026: New Price Reality | Rowan Hogg

As of December 22, 2025, Silver traded around $69 per ounce, marking a substantial surge from approximately $30 at the start of 2025—validating earlier predictions of a breakout beginning in September 2025. Silver is forecasted to experience significant upward momentum throughout 2026, entering a "new reality" of higher valuations. Despite intermittent corrections, I anticipate Silver ending the year 2026 substantially higher, supported by ongoing industrial demand and safe-haven flows. 
 
 » To analyze Silver astrologically, we use a chart dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. This marks the
first trade of Silver futures contracts in the United States on the National Metal Exchange, a precursor to the modern COMEX. 
Although Silver has been traded for centuries, this date represents the formalization of modern Silver futures trading. «

This prediction combines tropical Western astrology with Vedic sidereal techniques, using a foundational chart for Silver futures dated June 15, 1931, at 9:30 a.m. in Manhattan, New York. Key signatures include Jupiter's interactions with natal Pluto and Jupiter (wealth expansion), Uranus influencing natal Venus (technological and revolutionary boosts), and lunar/Cancer emphases (silver's traditional rulership by the Moon).
 
Monthly Key Transits and Expectations for 2026:

■ January: Upward momentum; Jupiter stations direct over natal Pluto (wealth expansion); Sun trines natal Venus.
■ February: Rise continues; Venus in eighth house aids investments; Mercury retrograde may expose manipulations.
■ March: Bullish with FOMO. Venus conjuncts North Node and Uranus, echoing prior surges.
■ April: Mainstream visibility increases. Venus transits the tenth house; potent conjunctions over natal Venus.
■ May: Multi-year potential boost. Venus over natal Moon; Uranus compresses natal Venus; Jupiter hits natal Pluto again.
■ June: Correction; Uranus squares natal Mars/Neptune (volatility, confusion); potential macro signals.
■ July: Rise amid banking stress; Sun over natal Pluto/Jupiter; possible Eastern market shift.
■ August: Slight gain despite health scare risks. Jupiter conjunct ascendant.
■ September: High volatility, possibly downward. Chiron and Ketu influences suggest overexpansion concerns.
■ October: Volatility in mining sector. Debilitated Sun and Saturn dampen speculation.
■ November: Renewed boom. Ketu with Jupiter; potential emergency monetary policies propel prices.
■ December: Volatile but overall higher close. Uranus stresses continue, yet speculative energy persists.

2026 is viewed as a transformative year for Silver, with commodities outperforming amid anticipated global challenges (e.g., political instability, financial strains).
 
Reference:
 
 
6 Options could reduce the current Gold:Silver ratio from 58 to 15 or less:
1. Gold down ~74.1%, Silver up (any positive percentage).
2. Gold down ~74.1%, Silver stable (0% change).
3. Gold stable, Silver up ~286.7%.
4. Both up, with Silver rising more (combinations vary by magnitude).
5. Both down, with Gold falling more (combinations vary by magnitude).
6. US Global Financial System Collapse. 
 
» The past month saw the Gold:Silver ratio crash -28% because Silver
soared. History says that a pullback for Silver is coming soon. «
  
» Thinking of shorting Silver? You're not the only one. «
 
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Thursday, December 25, 2025

2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities | Larry Williams

Professional bears and purveyors of pessimism often emerge at this time of year with gloom-and-doom narratives. While there are indeed periods to adopt a bearish stance, currently such warnings should be approached with caution. 
  

The standout stock of 2025 has been Nvidia. My forecast for the first few months of 2026 suggests a decline into mid-February, followed by a strong rally into April. On a longer-term basis, indicated by the blue line representing the extended cycle, Nvidia has historically rallied approximately 75% of the time during similar periods. This pattern is expected from mid-February into May, presenting a favorable opportunity for Nvidia investors.
 

Edgar Lawrence Smith's research in the 1930s profoundly influenced Warren Buffett. Smith demonstrated that stocks outperform bonds over long periods, particularly through compounding via retained earnings in growing companies. Buffett emphasized firms with disciplined reinvestment of profits. Smith also identified a dominant 3.5-year cycle in stock prices. Out-of-sample testing from 1930 onward reveals cycle lows that marked excellent buying opportunities in 1995, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2019, and 2023. This cycle points to another potential buying opportunity in 2026. 
 

Historical data on years ending in "6," dating back to 1806, show that 85% closed higher, with only four instances of declines. Additionally, after three consecutive up years, the fourth year has been positive eight out of eleven times. These patterns suggest high odds for continued upward momentum, provided supportive fundamentals persist.
 

The M2 money supply exhibits a cycle of approximately six to seven years. Lows in this cycle have historically aligned with bull market advances, as seen from 1960 onward. The next upswing is projected for 2026, introducing a bullish bias, though not guaranteeing a straight-line rally. 

 
 
In summary, 2026 is likely to feature higher stock prices, declining interest rates, and rising inflation. In Q3 I expect an historic buy point for US stocks. For detailed forecasts, visit iReallyTrade.com starting January 1.

 
 
 
 
Analyses of the S&P 500—integrating decennial, presidential, and seasonal cycles—project an annual return of up to 12% for 2026.
 
■ Strong rally in Q1, peaking around late February to mid April.
■ Pullback in April, followed by increased choppiness through June to August.
■ Weakness in late summer-early fall, and significant trough in October.
■ Robust year-end recovery from the October low.

Beginning in July 2026, the S&P 500 enters its strongest 24-month window of the four-year presidential cycle. Since 1942, every 24-month period starting in July of a midterm year has posted positive returns—a perfect 21-for-21 streak—with an average S&P 500 gain of 36.5%.

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Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Pythagorean Harmonics in Multi-Millennial Solar Activity | Theodor Landscheidt

One of the first interdisciplinary approaches to a holistic understanding of our world was that of Pythagoras and his disciples. They created the theory of the fundamental significance of numbers in the objective world and in music. This theory reduced all existence to number, meaning that all entities are ultimately reducible to numerical relationships that link not only mathematics to music but also to acoustics, geometry, and astronomy. Even the dependence of the dynamics of world structure on the interaction of pairs of opposites—of which the even–odd polarity essential to numbers is primary—emerges from these numerical relationships. Pythagoras would have been pleased to learn of attractors opposing in character, created by simple feedback loops of numbers, and forming tenuous boundaries—dynamic sites of instability and creativity.

Pythagoras exploring harmony and ratio with various musical

Pythagorean thinking deeply influenced the development of classical Greek philosophy and medieval European thought, especially the astrological belief that the planetary harmony of the universe affects everything, including terrestrial affairs, through space–time configurations of cosmic bodies. People were intrigued by the precision of numerical relationships between musical harmonies, which deeply touch the human soul, and the prosaic arithmetical ratios of integers. This connection was first demonstrated by Pythagoras himself in the sixth century B.C. In his famous experiment, a stretched string on a monochord was divided by simple arithmetical ratios—1:2, 2:3, 3:4, 4:5, and 5:6—and plucked. It was a Eureka moment when he discovered that these respective partitions of the string create the consonant intervals of harmony.
 
One tone is not yet music. One might say it is only a promise of music. The promise is fulfilled, and music comes into being, only when one tone follows another. Strictly speaking, therefore, the basic elements of music are not individual tones but the movements between tones. Each of these movements spans a certain pitch distance. The pitch distance between two tones is called an interval. It is the basic element of melody and of individual musical motion. Melody is a succession of intervals rather than of tones. Intervals can be consonant or dissonant.
 
[ Nodes of a vibrating string are harmonics. Conversely, antinodes
—points of maximum amplitude—occur midway between nodes. ]
 
It was Pythagoras’ great discovery to see that the ratios of the first small integers up to six give rise to consonant intervals; the smaller these integers, the more complete the resonance. A string divided in the ratio 1:2 yields the octave (C–C), an equisonance of the fundamental tone. The ratio 2:3 yields the fifth (C–G); 3:4 the fourth (C–F); 4:5 the major third (C–E); and 5:6 the minor third. These correspond to the consonant intervals of octave, fifth, fourth, major third, minor third, and the sixth. The pairs of notes given in brackets are examples of the respective consonances.
 
The minor sixth, created by the ratio 5:8, seems to go beyond the limit of six. Yet eight—the only integer greater than six involved here—is the third power of two and thus a member of the series of consonant numbers. Eight is created by an octave operation, which produces absolutely equisonant tones. All authorities agree that, besides the equisonant octave, there are no consonant intervals other than the third, the fourth, the fifth, and the sixth. If more than two notes are to be consonant, each pair of them must also be consonant.
 
As mentioned already, the most complete consonance within the range of an octave is the major perfect chord C–E–G (4:5:6), which unites the major third and the fifth with the fundamental note. These concepts of harmony and consonant intervals are formed by the first terms in the series of overtones, or harmonics, produced by a vibrating string. [...] Whenever there is a musical sound, there is an addition of harmonics that relate the fundamental tone to an infinity of overtones, which influence the quality of the consonant fundamental. The overtones up to the sixth harmonic represent the consonant intervals: the octave, the fifth, the fourth, the major third, the minor third, and the sixth.

Figure 19: Smoothed time series of consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT), with epochs indicated by dots. The resulting wave pattern corresponds to the secular cycle of sunspot activity. The average wavelength is 166 years, with each extremum occurring at mean intervals of 83 years, aligned with a maximum in the secular sunspot cycle. These maxima, as identified by Wolfgang Gleissberg, are marked by bold arrows. Minima occur when the wave approaches zero. This wave pattern reflects the influence of solar system configurations that generate impulses of the torque.

Figure 34 shows the combination of the consonant intervals known as the major sixth (3:5) and the minor sixth (5:8) as they emerge in solar-system processes over thousands of years. These intervals are marked by vertical triangles and large numbers. The curve depicts the supersecular variation of energy in the secular torque wave, part of which was shown in points along the curve represent epochs of extrema, labeled by Aₛ numbers from −64 to +28, corresponding to the period from 5259 BC to AD 2347. The mean cycle length is 391 years. Black triangles indicate maxima in the corresponding supersecular sunspot cycle, while open triangles indicate minima. When the energy exceeds certain quantitative thresholds, shown by hatched horizontal lines, a phase jump occurs in the correlated supersecular sunspot cycle. These critical phases are marked by vertical dotted lines. A new phase jump is expected around 2030.
It points toward a supersecular minimum comparable to the Egyptian minimum (E) around 1369 BC, a prolonged period marked by notable cooling and glacier advance. The ratio 3:5:8, representing the major and minor sixth, marks the intervals that separate these rare phase jumps indicated by the vertical dotted lines. The 317.7-year period of the triple conjunction of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus is also involved in this relationship, as shown by the small numbers beneath the large numbers at the top of the figure.
[...] Another confirmation of the hypothesis that consonant intervals play an important role with respect to the Sun's eruptional activity are the connections presented in Figure 34 that cover thousands of years. It has been shown in Figure 19 that consecutive impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun’s motion about the center of mass (CM) of the solar system, when taken to constitute a smoothed time series, form a wave-pattern the positive and negative extrema (±As​) of which coincide with maxima in the secular sunspot cycle. This Gleissberg cycle, with a mean period of 83 years, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year sunspot cycle, is in turn modulated by a supersecular sunspot cycle with a mean period of about 400 years. The Maunder Minimum of sunspot activity in the 17th century and a supersecular maximum in the 12th century are features of this supersecular cycle. It seems to be related to the energy in the secular wave presented in Figure 19.

This energy may be measured by squared values of the secular extrema ±As​. When these values are taken to form another smoothed time series, a supersecular wave emerges as plotted in Figure 34. It runs parallel with the supersecular sunspot cycle. Its mean period is 391 years, but it varies from 166 to 665 years. Each dot in the plot indicates the epoch of a secular extremum (±As​). These epochs are numbered from -64 to +28 and range from 5259 B.C. to 2347 A.D. Black triangles indicate maxima in the correlated supersecular sunspot curve and white triangles minima. The medieval maximum, which was together a climate optimum (O), the Spoerer Minimum (S), and the Maunder Minimum (M) are marked by respective abbreviations. The extrema in the supersecular wave properly reflect all marked peaks and troughs in the supersecular sunspot curve derived from radiocarbon data.
 
 
Angular Momentum and Past/Future Solar Activity, 1600-2200: JUP-NEP resonance of 22.13y mirrors Sun’s 22y magnetic cycle. JUP-NEP squares to solar equator align with 11y solar minima; sub-harmonics like JUP-URA-NEP at 11.09y track sunspot fluctuations. Centuries of data show minimal drift (0.6 ±1.5y), suggesting planetary periods act as solar activity pacemakers. 
 
 
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Sunday, December 21, 2025

My Conversion to Heliocentric Financial Astrology | Malcolm G. Bucholtz

The year 2025 marked a pivotal turning point in my professional journey. When I was first introduced to astrology at the 2012 United Astrology Conference (UAC) in New Orleans, the presentations centered exclusively on geocentric astrology. This approach emphasized planets in signs and houses, retrograde motions, and the purported influence of distant bodies such as Pluto (with its 248-year orbital period), Neptune, and Uranus—even in the context of financial astrology. I accepted these ideas without reservation, as they represented the prevailing consensus among attendees and appeared to be the only legitimate framework.

S&P 500 vs. 225-day orbital and 243-day axial spin cycles of Venus: April 2025 lows marked conclusion of spin cycle; midpoint of orbital cycle closely coincided with October 30 highs; December downturn occurred at termination of spin cycle.
Over the ensuing years, I authered books, conducted extensive research, and published newsletters, all rooted in this geocentric perspective. Nevertheless, persistent doubts gradually surfaced: an inner voice highlighted the methods’ inconsistent outcomes. Though I initially disregarded these misgivings, they became impossible to ignore by 2025. Deeper scientific literature portrays the solar system as a vast resonance machine: finely balanced and harmonically interdependent, such that altering the motion of any single planet would destabilize the entire structure. As inhabitants of Earth, humans are inherently attuned to these cosmic rhythms—whether consciously or not—and this attunement manifests emotionally in collective market behavior reflected on price charts.
 
I eventually uncovered papers by astronomers and mathematicians who, operating outside mainstream consensus, attribute phenomena such as climate change to celestial influences rather than human activity. When integrated with findings from medical journals, their work offered profound insight. These researchers maintain that only five planets warrant attention: Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn. Distant bodies like Pluto and Uranus can be disregarded owing to their negligible effects.  
 
 
 The Sun's offset from the center of mass of the solar system
 (black dots on the left side of dates), 2025-2040.

Earth’s 23.4° axial tilt fosters seasonal stability; 
Uranus’s 97.8° tilt "sideways" obliquity.
 
Jupiter and Saturn, by virtue of their immense mass, join the inner planets in exerting gravitational forces on the Sun’s surface during precise angular alignments. Such configurations prompt increased solar radiation in the form of sunspots; although Earth’s magnetic field deflects a portion of this energy, a substantial amount reaches the surface. Medical research connects this phenomenon to the "sodium-potassium pump model", discovered in 1957 by Jens Christian Skou. This model elucidates cellular responses, whereby influxes of solar energy trigger biochemical cascades that heighten susceptibility to emotional shifts correlated with variations in solar emissions.

Most financial instruments frequently align with multiples or fractions of Mercury’s and Venus’s orbital and rotational periods.
 
I observed that major heliocentric alignments involving Mercury, Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn consistently coincide with increased volatility or trend reversals across various assets, including the S&P 500, gold, coffee, orange juice, wheat, corn, oil, and cocoa. Although directional outcomes differ—some bullish, others bearish, and some leading to sideways consolidation—the effects are reliable when correlating heliocentric planetary positions with price charts. This pattern can be attributed to solar emissions influencing human emotion through cellular chemistry. 

In preparing the "Financial Astrology Almanac 2026", I employed the periodogram function—a mathematical tool for time-series analysis—to detect dominant cycles in price data. Nearly all examined financial instruments exhibit cycles that frequently align with multiples or fractions of Mercury’s periods (88-day orbit; 58.65-day rotation) and Venus’s periods (225-day orbit; 243-day rotation).  


On December 20, 2025, an active solar region erupted with vibrant, magnetically
guided coronal loops, marking Solar Cycle 25’s progression toward its 2025 peak.
 
See also:
Malcolm G. Bucholtz (December 20, 2025) - Financial Astrology Almanac 2026: Trading and Investing Using the Planets.
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Friday, December 19, 2025

Why a US War with Venezuela Would Benefit Russia | Dmitry Seleznyov

As cynical and crude as it may sound, a US war with Venezuela would benefit Russia. Venezuela could become America's "Ukraine," diverting US attention and resources away from our own conflict in Ukraine. The United States risks getting bogged down in a war it starts—especially if it launches a ground operation. In that case, Venezuela could turn into a second Vietnam for the US. Either way, South American countries would likely rally in solidarity to support it, uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." 
 
 » Uniting the continent in a fight against the "gringos." «

It won't be possible to tear the country apart with impunity; there won't be an easy walkover, and the US could face unacceptable losses. On the international stage, Russia and China would provide support—both politically and through hybrid means. On one hand, we'd be whispering sweet nothings to those Witkoffs or whoever's in charge in that administration, while on the other, quietly fueling Maduro's fire. Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? Of course, we'd offer help with the constraint that we're still tied down in Ukraine, but we'd do what we can.  
 
» Why not? If others can do it, why can't we? «
 
If things in Venezuela escalate to a hot phase and body bags start flowing back to Trump's "Great America," the MAGA electorate won't like it. Trump was elected to do the opposite. Fighting a war in Venezuela isn't just getting involved for Israel's sake or bombing Iran on the other side of the world—this one's right in America's backyard, with short supply lines. Not to mention that Trump would permanently lose his carefully cultivated image as a "peacemaker," the one he wants to be remembered for in history. A war in Venezuela would brand him forever as the man who tied a bloody ribbon of a second Vietnam around America's neck. Does Trump want that? Doubtful.
 
But Trump is pushing hard—he always plays the bluff game. Recently, Mr. Twitter declared a no-fly zone, and just the other day, he went even further with a full blockade. In effect, that's already a declaration of war. Will Maduro escalate? Sure, a direct conflict could end in different ways, but if Trump has already sentenced the Venezuelan president, what does he have to lose? Escalation often leads to de-escalation. Remember how young Kim Jong-un told Trump to get lost on surrendering nuclear weapons—and nothing happened; he ended up as a "good guy."
 
But for now, our friend Maduro is acting unconvincingly. Chanting "peace, peace, peace" won't stop an inevitable war. "You're only guilty of making me hungry," as the fable goes—red-haired Donnie's intentions are clear. So why wait? Look at the "barefoot" Houthis—they drove off American ships from clustering near their coast. And they're still standing strong. 

Or what—surrender?

 
Caracas, December 18, 2025: Venezuelan naval forces have begun escorting non-sanctioned oil tankers carrying petroleum derivatives, reportedly destined for China, in direct response to US President Donald Trump's December 16 announcement of a "total and complete blockade" targeting sanctioned vessels entering or leaving Venezuela. The escalation follows the US seizure on December 10 of the tanker Skipper, carrying approximately 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, which Trump indicated the US would retain. 
 

Venezuela has condemned these actions as aggression, requesting an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting to address perceived violations of international law. Domestically, PDVSA workers staged protests across multiple states in defense of national sovereignty, while Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reaffirmed the uninterrupted operation of the hydrocarbons sector. Amid the tensions, President Nicolás Maduro reported that Venezuela achieved 9 percent GDP growth in 2025 despite sanctions, with projections of at least 7 percent for 2026.
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