Tuesday, July 15, 2025

S&P 500 Rally Returns to Midpoint of Long-Term Channel | Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 has rallied about 25% in 3 months to hit record highs, which seems impressive. But it is only 2% above the February peak; i.e., over the last 5 months, it is up 5% at an annualized rate. And year-to-date, it is up 6.5%, or 12.5% at an annualized rate. In historical context, these numbers do not stand out.

The S&P 500 has just caught back up to the middle of its post Global Financial Crisis channel, 
and price gain so far this year is in line with the long-run median outside of recessions.
 
The median annual gain for the S&P 500 over the last 100 years is about 11.5%. And if one were to look only at years without recessions, it is 13%; for those with positive returns, the median is a whopping 19.5%. Indeed, the S&P 500 trends upward over time with occasional selloffs, and over the last 15 years—i.e., since the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)—it has been in a strong but wide channel rising at an annual rate of 12.5%. The rally has just taken it back to the middle of this channel, where it was at the February peak. 
 
 
  » Volatility is the toll we pay to invest. «
 
Since 1980 the median annual drawdown of the S&P 500 is 11% for all years,
and it's the same for election years (red boxes). 
 
» US stock market is among the three most overvalued in 100 years. « 
 
 Dow Industrials Four-Year Presidential Cycle 2024-2027, Ned Davis Research, 2024.

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Monday, July 14, 2025

Gold Nearing Its 54-Month Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

Gold's price action has been challenging to analyze due to its recent flat trend, forming a wedge pattern. Gold is rising into an 80-day cycle peak, with potential for a higher price and a major 54-month cycle peak ahead.

Gold is currently rising into an 80-day cycle peak, and a higher price is expected in the near term.

Peak-Based Analysis (price peaks are synchronized): The current 54-month cycle peak is not sharply isolated, reducing confidence in its placement. A larger, sharper peak is expected, potentially displaced to the right, possibly reaching higher prices within the ongoing 80-day cycle peak.
Trough-Based Analysis (cycles align at troughs, which is mathematically incompatible with peak synchronization): The composite model (combining both analyses) shows divergence from the actual price, particularly recently, despite aligning at the 80-day cycle trough. This discrepancy suggests the major cycle peak is mispositioned, reinforcing the likelihood of a significant peak forming soon.

Close monitoring is needed due to the analysis discrepancy and non-ideal peak characteristics.

 
See also:
 
Gold (CMX) 40 Year Seasonality (1980-2019).
 
Gold likely remains in a broader bullish Elliott Wave structure, still supporting the expectation of a new all-time high. The preferred view is that wave four ended at $3,123 and wave five has begun, or that gold is forming an ending diagonal, having completed wave one and now correcting in wave two. This would lead to a five-wave diagonal, typically marked by overlaps, ultimately reaching new highs in a less aggressive fashion. The alternate view is that gold remains in an extended wave four correction. However, this is seen as less likely due to the disproportionate time it would take compared to previous subwaves, making it structurally inconsistent with typical Elliott Wave proportions.
  
Elliott Wave structure favors another all-time high around $3,600 depending on
how Wave 5 unfolds [see the above mentioned major 54-month Hurst cycle peak].
 
Support at $3,123 and especially $2,970 remains critical. Staying above these levels keeps the bullish case intact. A decisive break below $2,970 with increased downside momentum would raise the likelihood that gold has topped. The structure still favors another all-time high, with a potential target around $3,600. Unless $2,970 breaks with conviction, the market bias remains upward, with summer consolidation expected to resolve higher into the fall and year-end.
 
 
Following the completion of Wave 5, gold is expected to undergo a longer-term, multi-year retracement—either to around $2,541, or more significantly, by 61.8% to 78.6%, potentially reaching levels near $1,379.50 or even $884.20.
 
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Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave: Peak 2025, Dip to 40K, Rise to 160K+ | Branimir Vojcic

The analysis of Bitcoin’s performance concludes that Ethereum is likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next few years. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory is still expected to show significant movement. 
 
Bitcoin's cycle peak in the 2nd half of 2025 will likely coincide with price reaching the green rectangle range, which is a forty-week
cycle price target. According to the preferred Elliott Wave count, that peak should be a wave (a) of super-cycle degree.
 
A cycle composite on the weekly chart projects Bitcoin's peak into the second half of 2025. 
 
A composite of three dominant cycles on the weekly chart indicates continued upside in the coming months, with a cycle peak projected for the second half of 2025. This peak is expected to align with Bitcoin reaching a price target within a green rectangle range, as determined by a 40-week cycle, and corresponds to a wave A of supercycle degree according to the preferred long-term Elliott wave count.

 
Following this peak, a downturn is anticipated in 2026, with a cycle trough expected in the second half of the year or early 2027. This corrective phase is identified as a supercycle wave B, potentially bringing Bitcoin’s price down to around the 40,000 range during a multi-year correction. The lower blue trend line is highlighted as a logical support level during this period. The corrective wave B could manifest in various forms, such as a zigzag, triangle, or other corrective structures.

After the correction, a supercycle wave C is expected to drive Bitcoin’s price to the 160,000 range or higher, marking a significant long-term upward movement. This analysis combines cycle analysis and Elliott wave theory to provide a comprehensive outlook on Bitcoin’s price behavior over the coming years.
 

Ethereum is expected to outperform Bitcoin until 2028: Ethereum operates on a dominant three-year cycle, while Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. These cycles are currently out of phase—Ethereum's cycle is projected to rise from late 2025 to mid-2027, while Bitcoin's cycle will decline until early 2027. Though other factors also influence performance, these dominant cycles are key long-term indicators. 
 
Reference:
 
 
Bitcoin formed a 40-week cycle trough in April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in late June. Bitcoin recently hit a $121,000 target set in May or June, with price finding support at the 80-day cycle FLD. A 20-week cycle trough is expected in early September, likely at the 20-week FLD level. A 54-month cycle trough in late 2022 drives the current bullish action, with an 18-month cycle trough in August 2024 forming bullish M shapes. The current 18-month cycle, ending in early 2026, is expected to be less bullish as the 54-month cycle turns down. Watch for a peak before the next 18-month cycle trough in early 2026.
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S&P 500 and NASDAQ Headed for August Cycle Troughs | David Hickson

The S&P 500 analysis highlights a significant 18-month cycle trough formed in early April 2025, potentially of greater magnitude, driving recent bullish price action. An 80-day cycle trough occurred in the third week of June, aligning with the 80-day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), a key cycle tool indicating support levels. 
 
An 18-month cycle trough in April 2025 has fueled recent gains, with an 80-day cycle trough in June confirming support via the FLD. A 40-day trough is due late July, followed by a deeper 20-week trough in August, forming a bullish M-shape pattern under longer-cycle upward pressure.
 
The dashed red composite model line aggregates cycle wavelengths and amplitudes to project future price movements. It closely mirrors past price action and forecasts a 40-day cycle trough in the third or final week of July, followed by a 20-week cycle trough around the third week of August. The composite model suggests a 20-week cycle peak is imminent or may have just occurred, with prices expected to decline into the 40-day trough, bounce slightly, and then fall into the 20-week trough, forming a bullish, distorted M-shape due to upward pressure from longer 18-month and 40-week cycles. The 20-week FLD will be critical for confirming support at the August trough, with shorter FLDs used to verify the peak.

Upcoming 20 Week Cycle Peak in the S&P 500.
 
The NASDAQ mirrors this pattern, with a significant cycle trough in April (at least 40-week magnitude, possibly 18-month), and a similar sequence of a 40-day trough in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The composite model line indicates a smaller bounce after the 40-day trough compared to the S&P 500, but bullish pressure persists due to the April trough’s magnitude.
 
Tracking similarly to the S&P, the NASDAQ saw a major April trough (40-week or 18-month), with a 40-day cycle low expected in late July and a 20-week trough by late August. The bounce may be smaller than the S&P’s, but bullish momentum continues due to the strength of the April trough.
 
The 80-day FLD supported the June trough, and the 20-week FLD will be monitored to confirm support for the August trough, especially if the April trough matches the S&P 500’s 18-month magnitude. The principle of commonality underscores the synchronized movements across these markets. While the composite model’s price projections are less reliable due to cycle amplitude and wavelength variations, its shape provides a clear guide for expected market trends over the next several weeks.
 
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Sunday, July 13, 2025

8 Bar Narrow Range (8BNR) Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the NASDAQ

The 8 Bar Narrow Range (8BNR) is a technical trading pattern developed by Toby Crabel, introduced in his book "Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout". 
 
 
It is part of his framework of price action patterns that focus on periods of volatility contraction (narrow price ranges) as precursors to potential volatility expansion (significant price movements). Here's an explanation of what the 8BNR pattern suggests and its implications for traders:

The 8BNR pattern occurs when the 8-day range (the difference between the highest high and the lowest low over an 8-day period) is the narrowest range compared to any other 8-day period within the last 40 trading sessions. This indicates a period of low volatility or price consolidation, where the market has been trading in a relatively tight range over the past eight days compared to recent history.

The 8BNR signals a potential breakout, but it does not specify the direction. Traders often use the pattern in conjunction with Crabel’s ORB strategy:
 
Long Trade: Place a buy stop order at the open price plus the "stretch" (a calculated value based on the 10-day simple moving average of the smaller difference between the open and high/low).
Short Trade: Place a sell stop order at the open price minus the stretch.
 
Crabel’s research suggests that breakouts are more likely to be profitable if they occur early in the trading session. Trades triggered later in the day carry higher risk and may warrant smaller position sizes or avoidance of overnight holds. The 8BNR is more reliable when it occurs after a clear trend or during a pullback in a trending market. Multiple narrow range patterns in close proximity (e.g., consecutive NR7 or 3BNR, 4BNR, 8BNR days) may indicate congestion, reducing the reliability of the breakout.


Like all technical patterns, the 8BNR is not foolproof. False breakouts, market noise, or unexpected events can lead to losses. Traders should avoid mechanical application and incorporate additional technical or fundamental analysis to confirm signals. Always combine the pattern with other market analysis for best results.
  
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Saturday, July 12, 2025

Seasonal Weakness in US Stocks During July Options Expirations | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1990, the Friday of July’s monthly options expiration week has shown a bearish bias for the DJIA, which declined 21 times in 35 years, with two unchanged years—1991 and 1995. On that Friday, the average loss is 0.36% for the DJIA and 0.35% for the S&P 500.

 DJIA down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.36% loss.
 
The NASDAQ has declined in 23 of the past 35 years during this week, with an average loss of 0.46%, including seven consecutive down years most recently. This trend suggests a potential seasonal bearish pattern likely linked to options trading dynamics.

NASDAQ down 23 of 35 years (65%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.46% loss.

For the full week, the DJIA posts the best performance, rising in 21 of 35 years with an average gain of 0.39%. However, the NASDAQ has been the weakest, declining in 21 years—including the last seven consecutively—with an average loss of 0.18%.

S&P 500 down 21 of 35 years (60%) on July expiration Friday, averaging a 0.35% loss.

The week following monthly options expiration also tends to be bearish for the NASDAQ, which averages a loss, compared to mild gains for the DJIA and S&P 500.
 
 

 
 
Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 Forecast Update. 
 
Namzes (July 12, 2025)  - S&P 500 2025  - 1965 Analogue Update.
 
 
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Sunday, July 6, 2025

The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? | Wayne Whaley

The S&P finished the 4th of July week at 6,279.35 and is now up 6.76% for 2025 and 13.4% over the last 12 rolling months (July 4 - July 4), currently residing at an All Time High for at least the three day weekend. 
 
You may recall that the S&P experienced an 18.9% selloff from the February 19th Close of 6,144.15 to the April 8th Close of 4,982.77, exceeding 20% if measured vs the April 8th intraday Low of 4,910.42. From that 4,982.77 Closing Low on April 8th, the S&P has now advanced 26.0%, doing so in less than a Quarter, 86 calendar days (April 8 - July 3) to be precise.  

The S&P surged 26% in just 86 days, reaching another all-time high, and has now risen 6.76% in 2025. 
Historical data shows similar rallies led to gains of 19.2%+ over the next year.
 
Looking back through post 1950 history, I can only find five prior occasions in which the S&P has advanced 25% in less than a Quarter and none of those five occasions were anywhere near an impending top. 

Certainly, one would prefer to have more than five data points from which to draw conclusions upon which to base one's market exposure but the magnitude and uniformity of the advances across the following 12 months in those five cases appears worthy of our respect. All five cases were positive over the following 1 to 12 months, up at least 19.2% one year later, 31.7% on average. None of the five cases experienced a 4% drawdown as measured from the signal Date.
 
July 5, 2025
 
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Saturday, July 5, 2025

The Tale of the Leopard, the Impala, and the Hyena

The leopard had just brought down an impala—an expertly executed ambush, swift and silent. Wasting no time, it dragged the carcass toward the safety of the trees, its usual dining refuge. But just as it began its ascent, trouble arrived.

 In a grim twist of fate, the predator became prey.
 
A hyena had caught the scent and was closing in fast. Panting from the chase, the leopard started climbing, but the hyena lunged and latched onto the impala. The leopard lost its grip and tumbled to the ground. In a flash, the hyena wrestled the kill away and claimed the prize.

Still hungry and frustrated, the leopard followed from a distance, silently hoping for a second chance. But the hyena, proud and possessive, wasn't in a sharing mood. Then, it made a fatal mistake. As it tore into the impala’s belly and turned to gorge on the entrails, the leopard struck. With explosive speed, it seized the remaining carcass and bolted for the nearest tree. By the time the hyena looked up, the leopard was already halfway to the canopy.

The hyena had gambled on greed—and paid the ultimate price.
 
Enraged, the hyena jumped and clawed at the trunk, desperate to reclaim its stolen feast. But it couldn’t climb. And every time it came close, the leopard hoisted the kill just a bit higher. Eventually, it nestled into the upper branches, safe, fed, and victorious. Below, the hyena waited, hungry and humiliated.

But the story doesn’t end there: Once the leopard had eaten its fill, it descended from the tree and faced the starving hyena directly. Weakened and slow, the hyena stood no chance. The leopard attacked—and this time, it didn’t just reclaim its pride. It killed the hyena. In a grim twist of fate, the predator became prey. The leopard dragged the lifeless body up the tree. One more meal. One less threat. The tables had turned—through patience, cunning, and perfect timing. The hyena had gambled on greed—and paid the ultimate price.
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The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.
 
 
The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 
 
However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 
 
 
Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025. 
 
See also:
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Monday, June 30, 2025

Hurst Cycles Analysis Update for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ | David Hickson

The S&P 500 formed a subtle 80-day cycle trough around June 23, 2025, and is expected to rise toward a 20-week cycle peak in mid-July 2025 with moderate upward momentum (red dashed line). 
  
 
A decline into a 20-week trough is anticipated around mid-August 2025, with a longer-term target of 7,233 later in the year.
 

The NASDAQ is expected to continue its bullish trend, moving upward to form a 20-week cycle peak around mid-July, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough expected in mid-August to early September. 
 
 
 See also: 
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Saturday, June 28, 2025

The Collapse of the Genocidal Zionist Regime Is Underway | Zeinab Al Saffar

The crumbling of the grim, tyrannical, and genocidal Zionist regime is gaining pace. Why does it matter? The tyrannies of the medieval age took centuries to disintegrate under the weight of resistance. But the Zionist regime, sectarian and racist in spirit, has faced unprecedented blows in just the last two decades. 
  
The fall of Zionism is unraveling before our eyes.
 
Global opinion polls show rising hostility towards Israel, even as it retains strong support from conservative governments such as those of the US, India, and Germany. Global public opinion, especially among the youth, has turned sharply against it. This could impact future diplomatic relations, arms sales, and UN votes.

"Trump is one of the lowest, most despicable beings on the planet.
He doesn't even have morals with his own people". 
Seyyed Parviz Fattah, June 28, 2025.
 
In West Asia, Israel’s favorability has long been low, and recent opinion polls show even stronger opposition, with over 90% viewing Israel negatively. So, hatred toward this apartheid and oppressive occupying regime is no longer a whisper — it’s a roar. And that roar is the drumbeat of history, pounding toward the inevitable fall of a crumbling system. Bottom line: the fall of Zionism won’t take centuries. It has already begun. It’s unraveling before our eyes. It’s good to know.
 
June 28, 2025
 
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