Monday, August 11, 2025

Ethereum Hurst Cycle Analysis: Turning Points for 2025-2026 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below represents a Hurst cycle analysis of the troughs and peaks in the daily chart for Ethereum (ETHUSD):

Ethereum (daily bars).
 
■ The orange line is the cycles composite, based on current estimates of periods, phases, and amplitudes.
■ The next 40-week cycle peak is expected in late August or early September of 2025.
■ The next 40-week cycle trough is expected in late 2025 or early 2026.
■ The next 18-month cycle peak is expected in May 2026.
■ The next 18-month cycle trough is expected in September or October 2026.
■ Ethereum's bullish outlook from 2025 to 2028 predicts significant gains relative to Bitcoin.

Do not correlate price with the amplitudes of the cycle composite. Instead, use the peaks and troughs as estimates of price turning points. 

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Sunday, August 10, 2025

Money Creation—Banking’s Best-Kept Secret | Richard A. Werner

In an era when gold was money, people believed it was essential for transactions. But carrying gold was perilous—dangerous even today in cities like London, let alone in the 15th-17th centuries amid bandits on lawless roads. So, people sought safe storage. Professions handling gold, like goldsmiths crafting jewelry for kings, aristocrats, and the wealthy, had secure vaults and private guards. Naturally, individuals deposited their gold with these goldsmiths for safekeeping.
 
» We don't need to lend actual gold. «
"The Moneychanger and His Wife", painting by Quinten Matsijs, 1514.
 
To prove ownership, depositors received receipts—crucial evidence in case the goldsmith died and his son denied the claim. Goldsmiths charged a fee for this service, which seemed fair. Now, imagine we’re neighbors in Hampshire. I’m buying a plot of land from you, and we agree on a price in gold. My gold’s stored with a goldsmith in London. “I’ll go fetch it,” I say. You reply, “What’ll you do with it? You’ll risk your life fetching it, and then I’ll have to risk mine carrying it back.” We pause, then realize, “We might as well leave it there, and I’ll give you my deposit receipt.” Thus, these receipts for deposited gold evolved into Europe's first paper money—gold certificates, transferable and convenient.
 
Goldsmiths soon noticed that depositors rarely withdrew their gold; it stayed put, which was handy. This led to secrecy-shrouded practices. People knew goldsmiths held gold reserves, so they approached them for loans when in need. But until about 350 years ago, lending at interest was illegal in most European countries, forbidden by Christian doctrine and Biblical prohibitions against usury. A goldsmith might whisper, "Maybe I can lend, but keep it secret because I'll charge interest." The borrower agrees: "I'll pay, and we'll keep it secret." Goldsmiths began lending out portions of the deposited gold—especially standardized bullion—while swearing everyone to secrecy to evade arrest for illegal interest.
Shylock in The Merchant of Venice, Act IV, Scene I, by William Shakespeare, 1596.
 
As guilds do, goldsmiths convened to discuss trade secrets: “How do we handle lending too much gold? We need to work together—if one runs short, the others help, or else the whole scheme unravels, and we all get arrested for interest altogether.” One innovative goldsmith proposed, "I've got an idea—we don't need to lend actual gold. The next guy who comes begging every Monday—I've turned him down before. But now I'll lend to him to show you."
 
» All banks have always created money out of nothing. 
That's the secret of banking. «
 
The borrower arrives, pleading. The goldsmith says, “Today I’ll lend. Standard contract: small print, interest, your daughters sold into slavery if not repaid.” “Fine,” the borrower consents. “One more thing: 300 grams of gold. Sign here, I sign, and I lend it—but you must deposit it with me immediately.” The borrower protests, “I need the gold.” “You get the deposit receipt,” replies the goldsmith. “Yes, that’s all I need.” With the loan contract signed, the goldsmith records it as an asset on his balance sheet. He hands over the 300 grams of gold momentarily—now you see it, now you don’t—and it’s redeposited. The borrower leaves with a receipt for a new deposit.
 
» Banking has not been very well understood.
This has been a lost century in economics. «
 
Double-entry accounting, invented for banking to obscure such maneuvers, made it appear legitimate: “All correct; the borrower deposited.” But it is fraudulent—the borrower enters with no gold and leaves with a document claiming a deposit, without increasing the goldsmith’s actual reserves. This is the essence of modern banking: fractional reserve lending and money creation out of thin air, born from these historical practices.
 
Reference:
 
» Today, due to the institutionalisation of interest and the advent of digital money, roughly 97 percent of modern money comes into existence as interest-bearing debt—i.e., it “comes into being only when someone promises to pay back even more of it.” «
Yusuf Jha, 2013.
 
See also: 
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Saturday, August 9, 2025

"Satoshi Nakamoto" and the Origin of Bitcoin | Richard A. Werner

The chain of events that led central banks and major financial institutions to get involved with blockchain-based digital currencies really started with the introduction of Bitcoin on January 3, 2009. Even before Bitcoin’s white paper appeared on October 31, 2008, the NSA—a sister organization to the CIA—had already published various white papers on related topics.
 
» They like to drop hints. «

When Bitcoin emerged, some mainstream organizations surprisingly promoted it early on. Outlets like the Financial Times, Reuters, and Bloomberg—sources that provide financial quotes—were already including Bitcoin prices and running major articles about it, even when Bitcoin was still tiny, fringe, and virtually unknown. Over time, the coverage increased. Large banks such as JP Morgan began announcing partnerships with people involved in Bitcoin or similar electronic, distributed-ledger, blockchain-related currencies. Then central banks joined in, saying, “We have to get in on this.” Bitcoin ended up serving as an excuse for central banks to claim there was market demand for such technology. Christine Lagarde even said this is why we need to consider introducing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)—because “we have to offer something.”

» We have to get in on this. «
 
The origins of Bitcoin remain a black box—nobody really knows. They do give hints, though. Having lived in Japan for 12 years, I was curious about Bitcoin’s supposed founder—this legendary, possibly fictional figure—named Satoshi Nakamoto. People speculated about who it might be, but no one could confirm an actual person by that name. Still, it’s clearly a Japanese name. Let’s look at it as a Japanese name, where the family name comes first: Nakamoto Satoshi. 
 
■ Written in Japanese, Nakamoto is 中本. The first character, 中 (Naka), means “middle,” “center,” or “inside,” and is also part of the name for China, the “Central Kingdom.” The second character, 本 (Moto), means “origin,” “source,” or “root,” and is used in the Japanese name for Japan. Together, 中本 (Nakamoto) can be interpreted as “central origin” or “center source.”
■ The name Satoshi (さとし) can be written with various kanji, such as 智 or 悟司. The character 智 means “wisdom” or “intelligence” in both Chinese (pronounced zhì) and Japanese (satoshi). In Japanese, two kanji are sometimes combined to deepen a concept—for example, 聡智 (sōchi) means “cleverness and wisdom,” where 聡 means “intelligent” or “clear-hearing,” paired with 智 for “wisdom.” 
 
In the context of Nakamoto Satoshi, this combination could be interpreted as “very central” or “Central Intelligence.” If you understand Japanese writing, it’s not hard to see. I also think intelligence agencies sometimes like to drop hints—because even though they operate in secret, they still like to be talked about.

 
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Friday, August 8, 2025

Ethereum Outlook – Technical Structure and Price Targets | Philip Hopf

After price had risen significantly in recent weeks, Ethereum reached new interim highs at USD 4,070 on August 8, but may now be approaching a medium-term correction. 
 
Ethereum (weekly bars): Major resistance zone around USD 4,107.

The stablecoin market volume stood at USD 250 billion on July 23 and is currently growing by roughly USD 5 billion per week. It has already reached approximately USD 280.8 billion. Over 50% of all stablecoins operate on the Ethereum blockchain – a factor seen as clearly positive for Ethereum. Capital flows show significant inflows into Ethereum ETFs in recent weeks. A notable divergence is visible between retail investors and large investors (institutions/whales):

ETH (black line) Number of Addresses with Balance ≥ 10k (blue line) sharply rising:
The whales are eating Ethereum alive.
 
■ Retail investors have been steadily reducing their Ethereum holdings for months, even during recent price gains.
■ Large investors, on the other hand, have been accumulating heavily. 
■ Number of addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH – currently worth around USD 40 million each – has risen sharply.
 
This is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal: “smart money” is buying while “dumb money” is selling.
 
Short-term price may reach USD 4,200–4,300, followed by a quick pullback.
 
From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone around USD 4,107 that has repeatedly triggered sharp corrections in the past. In the short term, price could reach this area or slightly exceed it (up to about USD 4,200–4,300). A breakout above this level might attract momentum traders, potentially followed by a quick pullback.

The expected correction could, depending on the exact high, amount to USD 1,000–1,300, bringing the price down to the USD 3,000 range or lower. This phase is viewed as a buying opportunity.
 
A correction down to around USD 3,000 should be followed by a medium-term
rise to USD 5,500–6,500 and long-term targets of USD 12,000–14,000.

In the medium term, after the correction, another upward move is anticipated, with targets between USD 5,500 and 6,500. In the long term price regions of USD 12,000–14,000 are considered possible. Exact timing cannot be derived from Elliott Wave analysis, as price movements and patterns can vary greatly in duration.

Reference:
 
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Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle

The 40-week cycle, also known as the 9-Month Cycle, is a cornerstone of J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory, developed during the 1960s and 1970s to forecast financial market movements through harmonic cycles. Spanning approximately 272.8 days from trough to trough, it consists of two 20-week cycles (19.48 weeks or 136.4 days each). The 40-week cycle is additionally subdivided into four 10-week or 80-day cycles (68.2 days), eight 40-day cycles (34.1 days), sixteen 20-day cycles (17 days), thirty-two 10-day cycles (8.5 days), and sixty-four 5-day cycles (4.3 days), forming one nested structure essential for swing and position trading. 

This idealized 40-Week Cycle (purple) of 272.8 calendar days is divided into two 20-week cycles (teal), each
of which is further divided into two 10-week cycles (blue), highlighting the complete nested harmonic structure.

Note that the 40-week cycle is itself half of the 18-month cycle, which in turn is one-third of the 54-month cycle—half of a 9-year cycle—and so on. The 40-week cycle’s intermediate-term horizon captures significant market swings, making it ideal for timing entries at troughs and exits at peaks, especially when aligned with shorter cycles (10-week, 20-week) or longer cycles (18-month, 54-month). 
 
54-month, 18-month, and 40-week cycles in the CAD/USD (weekly bars), 2020-2025.
 
Bitcoin (monthly bars): 18-month and 54-month cycle peaks and troughs, 2018-2027.
 
In bear markets, the cycle’s crest occurs early (second to third month, left translation), with a brief rise and prolonged decline; in bull markets, the crest shifts later (sixth to eighth month, right translation), leading to a longer advance. The strongest rallies typically occur in the first three months when cycles align upward, while the last three months are vulnerable to renewed declines. 
 
Why the turning points of individual long-term cycles typically diverge—often significantly—from the composite 
or summation cycle of the three to four most prominent cycles (red), and thus from actual market price extremes.

 Hurst's nominal model allows for significant variability in actual cycle lengths.
 
Hurst's Nominal Model  can be displayed as a series of sinusoids (x-axis) with different amplitudes (y-axis) that, when summed, create a composite model, represented by the thick black line in the example of an 18-month cycle projection for the current S&P 500 in the chart below. 
 
18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500 based on Hurst's Nominal Model.
 
The orange line is the 18-month cycle (17.93 months = 546.6 calendar days), the light green the 40-week cycle (9 months = 38.97 weeks = 272.8 days), dark green the 20-week component (4.5 months = 19.97 weeks = 136.4 days), light blue the 10-week cycle (= 68.2 days), dark blue the so called 40-day or 5-week cycle (= 34.1 days) and finally the so called 20-day cycle (17 days) is the purple sinusoid. The X axis represents the number of calendar days. 
 
In the S&P 500, April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 
40-week cycle troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.

The wavelengths in the above S&p 500 projection are average values rather than exact measurements. The thick black composite line ignores the effects of both the trend and cycles shorter than 20 days or longer than 18 months. Assuming the US stock market operates with clockwork precision, the dates for upcoming peaks and troughs were calculated from the 18-month cycle trough on April 7, 2025, and the aforementioned average cycle lengths. 
 
is projected to peak on August 19, 2025, according to Sigma-I.net.
 
See also:
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S&P 500 20-Week Hurst Cycle Support Around 6,000 | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500, having bounced off support, is projected by Hurst Cycle Analysis to reverse near its current level and decline into a 20-week cycle low around the third week of August, likely finding support around 6,000 (+/- 50) at the 20-week Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). 


April 7, 2025, was an 18-month cycle low, and the next 40-week cycle (= 9-month cycle) troughs are estimated for early 2026 and late Q4 2026.


The Hurst Cycle Composite line for the Nasdaq 100 4-hour chart (orange) predicts a mid-August trough, a peak around late September 2025, and a subsequent decline.
 
Reference:
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Price Projections Using J.M. Hurst's FLD | Branimir Vojcic

Using Bitcoin as an example, I will explain the cycle-based price projection method described by J.M. Hurst. In cycle literature, this method is referred to as price projections using the Forward Line of Demarcation (FLD). [The FLD is essentially a displaced moving average, acting as a leading indicator of price interaction with the cycle’s midpoint and as a dynamic support or resistance level.]
 
 
Definitions:
Cycle period = time interval between cycle troughs 
FLD = Forward Line of Demarcation = price shifted by half the cycle period
Cyan line = median of the price bar
TD = trading day
CD = calendar day
 
In the Bitcoin example, the FLD band is constructed by offsetting the median price (High Price + Low Price / 2) by TD = 7 and TD = 8, which correspond to CD = 9 and CD = 10 for the nominal 20-day cycle, presumed to vary between 19 and 20 CDs.
  
■ H1 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the left FLD band boundary and the intersection point.
■ H2 is the vertical distance between the last low before the median price intersects the right FLD band boundary and the intersection point.
■ The lower level of the target range is determined by adding H1 to the left FLD boundary intersection point. The upper level of the target range is determined by adding H2 to the right FLD boundary intersection point.

The price targets derived from this method are met with an average probability of 0.7 (i.e., 70% of the time), though they may vary by a few percentage points depending on the cycle length and the financial instrument involved. If one allows for the price to approach—rather than fully reach—the target range, the probability of success increases significantly.

In uptrends, upward targets are reached with a higher probability, while downward targets are less likely to be met. Conversely, in downtrends, downward targets are more probable, and upward targets less so. If a target is not reached, it may indicate a pending price reversal due to one or more longer cycles exerting pressure in the opposite direction.


For cycle periods, one may use Hurst’s nominal cycle periods (see table above) or estimated actual cycle periods, if appropriate software is available. In either case, some tolerance (+/-) around the estimated cycle lengths should be considered.

This remarkably powerful method is difficult to surpass by any other I have encountered. It produces projection targets similar to those obtained using converged Centered Moving Averages (CMA) and focal point-based projections—a logical outcome, since all are based on cycles and their inherent properties.

I hope this explanation demystifies price targets. A combination of price and time targets for turning points is a powerful tool—it helps one stay in the trend as long as possible while anticipating both the price and timing of reversals.

 
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Sunday, August 3, 2025

Gaza—An Israeli-Trump Real Estate Exposition | Helena Glass

October 2023, one week after the false flag operation at the Negev festival, Netanyahu and Trump devised a plan. The end objective was more money than any elite 1%er could ever dream of in this Money Mania World. Gaza was the plan’s trajectory—trillions in potential revenue. Paid for not by corporations and banks, but by taxpayers—meaning the wealth makers would not be obliged to put up a dime. Given Israel has no viable economy and is fundamentally based on American and Western taxpayer ‘gifts’ via aid programs and disappeared funds, the operation depended on multiple layers, devised to displace 2.3 million Palestinians—forever.

"Gaza could be a valuable waterfront property." — Jared Kushner, February 15, 2024.
 
Trump and Netanyahu have always held a close relationship, so the partnership was driven by shared needs. Trump’s role was to garner the people en masse, to give rise to a cult so devoted he could do virtually anything and still be adored. Netanyahu, as Israel, held the proximity and the victimhood ideology so encased in the Jewish identity. And together, they initiated a written plan to assert America’s greatest deception. The grand master of illusion. The circus must go on!

Trump would be elected president with the assistance of Israel, as long as he inserted the required Jewish candidates chosen by Netanyahu. Once elected, Trump would divert attention by making gains on immigration, as promised. His ‘peace plan’ would effectively embrace the Israeli neocon hawks to eliminate Netanyahu’s enemies: Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon. Once effectively demilitarized, Trump was told to focus on eliminating the competition—Russia and China. Putin was backstabbed—but China had a leverage Trump and Netanyahu didn’t anticipate: rare earth minerals.

POTUS catering to I$raHell: Genocide Don and Genocide Bibi, February 5, 2025.
 
Egypt was a necessity, given they would accept the mass refugees—for a price. Saudi Arabia and Qatar would contribute to the ‘grease’ and pay off Egypt, and percentages of profit were effectively allocated. The Saudi Crown Prince was already over his head in cost overruns of NEOM, and Qatar would act the part of a Shakespearian negotiator.

 Steve Bannon slams Trump, calling him 'Israel First'.

But as all good plans go—and as Trump warned—Netanyahu failed miserably in the first week. The PR victimhood campaign was poorly designed. Witnesses told the stories of the aggressors being the IDF, blowing up houses—and people—under the Hannibal Directive. PR went immediately toward the Palestinians, and once opened, Pandora’s box could never be closed.

 "The Genocide—the Starvation—were pre-planned strategies to eradicate the 
undesirables in order to build a Real Estate Haven for the Wealthy and 1%ers."
 Israeli Intelligence Ministry Policy Paper on Gaza's Civilian Population, October 2023.
 
Trump attempted to garner and censor the media on Netanyahu’s behalf. The Middle East turned to stone, afraid of their implication on the world stage. Israel and the CIA began a campaign of fake videos and photographs that were easily dissected, further turning Israel into a pariah state of lies, murder, and deception. US politicians called for nuking Palestine—an impossibility, given the land would thus be untenable.

Enter—The Epstein Files: Netanyahu demanded the files not be released, given they were the source of a good deal of annual blackmail funds. In attempting to bury the files, Trump lost the PR stunt—trying to claim it was all a hoax: stupid people believe it, it never happened… In other words, both Trump and Netanyahu failed so miserably in this operation because of PR. The media. Deception. Betrayal. And a document that was released. 

"Time to drop the really big bomb: Trump is in the Epstein files."
Elon Musk, June 5, 2025.
  
Gaza isn’t simply about real estate; it is about the Ben Gurion Canal, eliminating the Suez Canal using dammed water from Ethiopia. It is about oil and gas reserves that could be redistributed to Israel. It is about making Israel a dominant world power instead of a puny statehood—always using those missing taxpayer funds, estimated in the trillions, to achieve the ultimate goal. The brilliance Soros perfected via the IRS fraud—NGOs. Trump established the NGO, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), with a monthly budget of $140 million, siphoned back to Israel…

The plan, as enumerated by Michel Chossudovsky of Global Research, was an analytical proposal submitted October 13, 2023, as an initiative of Gila Gamliel-Demri, who was Israel’s Minister of Intelligence in 2023–2024. She has been a tremendous advocate for regime change in Iran, having met numerous times with Reza Pahlavi to secure this coup.

However, the direct implication of President Trump in this genocide of children and women is the most egregious betrayal, as he pretends to have compassion for trafficked children while directly supporting the torture, bombing, and starvation of THOUSANDS of children. The goal, as envisioned, is a beach destination with a Trump Tower, high-end condos, five-star hotels, restaurants, boutiques, diamonds, and the extension of Epstein Island—with a tithe attached.

"America is a Golden Calf, and we will suck it dry, chop it up, and sell it off, piece by piece."    
Benjamin Netanyahu, 1990.
  
The implication of this information is vast. It completely redefines Trump and his family. It redirects America. And it realizes the truth behind the lost trillions within the State Department and DoD, in collusion. It perfects the ‘conspiracy’ that Trump, like all previous presidents, are simpletons of the Deep State Cartel—and puts him on par with Clinton, Obama, Biden, Reagan, and Carter. It gives RFK Jr. the necessary closing of the truth behind his father and uncle, who sacrificed their lives at the hands of this Cartel in order to preserve the Zionist control of the American government—those who betrayed his father, and those he once called ‘friends’.

Global Research, Michel Chossudovsky provides the Documented Truth: see below, or click here to access the complete document (10 pages). The Genocide—the Starvation—were pre-planned strategies to eradicate the undesirables in order to build a Real Estate Haven for the Wealthy and 1%ers.

Trump has been using taxpayer funds to siphon to Israel for this Great Big Beautiful Development, for which all profits will revert to the corporations and the billionaires inserted into the White House for their Zionist protocols. The distraction is Russiagate. Who will they scapegoat to keep MAGA happy, as MAGA is calling for blood?

"The rail lines to Auschwitz need to be bombed, we’re witnessing a Holocaust in Gaza."
Max Blumenthal, August 3, 2025.

Within this attempt to realize an IsrAmerican Empire, the BRICS present a problem of loyalty. Russia and China are central to the BRICS—if they can be destroyed, the BRICS will crumble. Gaza would bring the Middle East central to the empire. But they have no intention of sharing the bounty with the undesirables: Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, and Lebanon. These countries need to remain ‘destabilized.’
 
'What's the BIG SECRET fellas?' —  Alabama activists target Trump.
 
The link above to the document that sets the Stage, reveals the Acts, and notes the participants are straight from Israel. Betrayal is one of the worst conditions of a man’s soul.

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