Thursday, December 18, 2025

Upcoming 40-Day Hurst Cycle Troughs: SPX, NDX, Crude Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

S&P 500
(daily bars): 40-day cycle trough ideally due December 23 (Tue)(± 5.49 CD)
While the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles all remain in decline, a choppy counter-trend Santa Claus rally of uncertain
magnitude is expected into year-end early-January 2026 (see 'Schematic Structure of Hurst's Nominal 40-Day Cycle' below). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026. 
[Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.] 
 
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 23 (Tue). 
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 25 (Mon), 2026 
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (2000-2025).
 
 Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): Current 18-Month Cycle (October 2024-December 2025).
 
Crude Oil (WTI, daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 19-21 (Fri-Sun). One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month
cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around February 17 (Tue), 2026.  
 
 Gold (daily bars): Long-Term Cycles (1995-2025).
 
 Gold (daily bars): 80-day cycle trough due ± December 28 (Sun) and January 5 (Mon), 2026. 
One more 80-day cycle into a 18-month cycle trough: Next 40-week and 18-month cycle troughs 
are currently projected to around late February-mid March 2026. 
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars, log-scale): Long-Term Cycles (2010-2025).
 
 Bitcoin (daily bars): 40-day cycle trough due ± December 20 (Sat).
Next 80-day, 40-week, and 18-month cycles troughs are currently projected to around January 19 (Mon), 2026. 

[Cycle Analysis as of December 18, 2025 | 11:00 a.m. EST] 
 
  

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

On Legitimacy, Leadership, Taxes, and "The Real Problem" | Nayib Bukele

I am here to tell you that in El Salvador, globalism is already dead. If you want globalism to die here in the United States as well, you must be willing to unapologetically fight against everything and everyone that stands for it. 
 
 » Winning the election is not enough. «
Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez (born 1981), the 81st President of El Salvador, serving since 2019; re-elected in 2024
with 84.6% of the vote, and currently maintaining approval ratings between 79% and 91% as of December 2025.
 
[...] The next President of the United States must not only win an election; he must also have the vision, the will, and the courage to do whatever it takes. Above all, he must be able to identify the underlying forces conspiring against him. These dark forces are already taking over your country. You may not see it yet, but it is already happening. 
 
[...] There are other symptoms that are even more difficult to diagnose—for instance, the financial situation of the United States. When I talk to my conservative friends here in the US, they always tell me that the problem is high taxes. But they are wrong. Of course, taxes are extremely high here in the United States, but that’s not the real problem. The real problem is not the high taxes themselves, but the fact that they are not even funding your government. 
 
So, who is financing your government? Your government is financed by Treasury bonds. Paper. And who buys the Treasury bonds? Mostly the Fed. And how does the Fed buy them? By printing money. But what backing does the Fed have for that money being printed? The Treasury bonds themselves. So basically, the Fed finances your government by printing money out of thin air.

If your government can print unlimited amounts of money out of thin air, why does it collect taxes? The answer is simple, but it's very shocking: The real problem is that you pay high taxes only to uphold the illusion that you are funding your government. It’s shocking, but it’s true: Your government is funded by money printing: paper backed with paper. This bubble will inevitably burst.
 
The situation is even worse than it seems, because if most Americans and the rest of the world were to become aware of this farce, confidence in your currency would be lost. The dollar would fall, and Western civilization with it. If the next president of the United States doesn’t make the necessary policies and structural changes, sooner or later that bubble will burst.
 
»
 Israel First. Trump has fully betrayed America. «

[...] Winning the election is not enough. It will require a total re-engineering of the government from top to bottom. It will entail making difficult decisions. But you have the right to determine your own fate. [...] That is my message to you: put up the fight, because in the end, it will be worth it. You will have your country back. May God bless you.
 
Quoted from:
 

 
Winning the election is not enough: 

1. Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko (born 1954), the 1st President of the Republic of Belarus, serving since July 1994; re-elected in 2025 with approximately 88% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 75%-85% as of December 2025.
2. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin (born 1952), the 4th President of the Russian Federation, serving since May 2012; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 87% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 82%-86% as of December 2025.
3. Nayib Armando Bukele Ortez (born 1981), the 81st President of El Salvador, serving since June 2019; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 85% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 79%-91% as of December 2025.
4. Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (born 1962), the 66th President of Mexico, serving since October 2024; elected in 2024 with approximately 60% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 70%-79% as of December 2025.
5. Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron (born 1977), the 8th President of the French Fifth Republic, serving since May 2017; re-elected in 2022 with approximately 59% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 14%-18% as of December 2025.
6. Javier Gerardo Milei (born 1970), the 59th President of Argentina, serving since December 2023; elected in 2023 with approximately 56% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 42%-52% as of December 2025.
7. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (born 1954), the 12th President of the Republic of Turkey, serving since August 2014; re-elected in 2023 with approximately 52% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 35%-45% as of December 2025.
8. Nicolás Maduro Moros (born 1962), the 34th President of Venezuela, serving since 2013; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 51% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 65%-90% as of December 2025.
9. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (born 1945), the 39th President of Brazil, serving since January 2023; elected in 2022 with approximately 51% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 40%-43% as of December 2025.
10. Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego (born 1960), the 35th President of Colombia, serving since August 2022; elected in 2022 with approximately 50% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 30%-36% as of December 2025.
11. Donald John Trump (born 1946), the 47th President of the United States, serving since January 2025; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 50% of the popular vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 38%-41% as of December 2025.
12. Mark Joseph Carney (born 1965), the 24th Prime Minister of Canada, serving since March 2025; elected in 2025 with approximately 43% of the vote, and maintaining an approval rating around 62% as of December 2025.
13. Narendra Damodardas Modi (born 1950), the 14th Prime Minister of the Republic of India, serving since May 2014; re-elected in 2024 with approximately 37% of the vote for his party, and maintaining an approval rating around 70%-78% as of December 2025.
14. Keir Rodney Starmer (born 1962), the 58th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, serving since July 2024; elected in 2024 with approximately 34% of the vote for his party, and maintaining an approval rating around 20%-25% as of December 2025.
15. Friedrich Merz (born 1955), the 10th Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, serving since May 2025; elected in 2025 with approximately 32% of the vote for his party, and maintaining an approval rating around 23%-30% as of December 2025.

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

The Psychology of Revolution | Gustave Le Bon

In his 1913 analysis of The Psychology of Revolution, French physician and polymath Gustave Le Bon (1841-1931) argues that "political revolutions" are abrupt upheavals driven primarily by "affective and mystic elements" rather than "rational discourse," which he attributes to the "erosion of established traditions" and the "contagious spread of discontent."
 
"A revolution is effected from above, that is, by the leaders of the old regime; but when it is victorious it is rapidly vulgarised, because the people interferes and applies the only means in its power—violence. To destroy is within its scope; to reconstruct is beyond it. [...] The instinctive soul of the people is above all remarkable for its extreme mobility. Deceived by its own chimeras, it enthusiastically applauds its idols of a day, to overthrow them the next day in favour of others. No gods ever long survived its favour. This mobility renders the people credulous and ignorant at the same time. 
 
By the mere fact that he forms part of an organised crowd, a man descends several rungs in the ladder of civilisation. Isolated, he may be a cultivated individual; in a crowd, he is a barbarian — that is, a creature acting by instinct. He possesses the spontaneity, the violence, the ferocity, and also the enthusiasm and heroism of primitive beings, whom he further tends to resemble by the facility with which he allows himself to be impressed by words and images — which would be entirely without action on each of the isolated individuals composing the crowd — and to be induced to commit acts contrary to his most obvious interests and his best-known habits. An individual in a crowd is a grain of sand amid other grains of sand, which the wind stirs up at will.
»
 An individual in a crowd is a grain of sand, which the wind stirs up at will. « 
 
Le Bon argues that during political revolutions, individuals are driven more by inherent character traits than by intellect, with certain mentalities rising to prominence amid chaos:
  
[...] We have seen in all times apostles arise who have had an irresistible influence over the popular mind by cultivating its instincts and speaking its language. The people always follows them with enthusiasm, whether they be ignorant fanatics, hard and upright logicians, ferocious maniacs, or eloquent speakers. Whatever their aims, the leaders of the people are obliged to enter into reciprocity with it, to recognise its psychology, even if they do not share its sentiments. They must be in communion with it, or they will not act upon it. 
 
We have seen in all times apostles arise who have had an irresistible influence over the popular mind by cultivating its instincts and speaking its language. The people always follows them with enthusiasm, whether they be ignorant fanatics, hard and upright logicians, ferocious maniacs, or eloquent speakers.
»
The people loves equality, but it respects titles and prestige. «
 
[...] When a political party triumphs, all the forces of interest, ambition, and hatred which parties contain become enlisted in its service, so that the triumph of a political revolution is always accompanied by a complete overthrow of all the institutions of a country. The chief result of a revolution is to sweep away the forces which held together the edifice of government, which was perhaps already tottering, and to substitute for them nothing but the will of the victors, which is for that reason all-powerful. 
 
We have seen in all times apostles arise who have had an irresistible influence over the popular mind by cultivating its instincts and speaking its language. The people always follows them with enthusiasm, whether they be ignorant fanatics, hard and upright logicians, ferocious maniacs, or eloquent speakers.
»
 
Irresistible influence over the popular mind. «
  
[....] A revolution cannot change the soul of a people. This soul commands, and all must obey. It is for this reason that after a revolution the laws and institutions of a people are so often in contradiction with the interests of the new rulers, and also with the prescriptions of pure reason. But presently the laws are modified or abrogated, until they are more or less adapted to necessities. When the dogma which serves as the base of a revolution is victorious, the dissociated social elements which have resulted from the destruction of the old institutions become agglomerated under the action of new ideas."

Le Bon dissects the role of "the people" in such revolutions, distinguishing between the "conservative majority" and a "subversive minority" prone to violence. He argues that the masses are often manipulated and contribute mainly through destructive acts rather than constructive change:
 
"1. The Meaning of the Word 'People:' The term 'people' represents merely the superior portion of a nation. It comprises an elite: the nobility, clergy, magistrates, etc. By extension it was applied to the whole nation, and finally it has come to mean the most inferior elements of the population, the lower populace. We shall examine it in this last sense, and shall show what part the people plays in revolutions. From the political point of view the people may be considered in two aspects—as an army and as a crowd. As an organised army it plays the part of follower. As a crowd it is often revolutionary. 
 
(3) By reason of its mobile soul it personifies all its sentiments in a fetich. To become the master of the people one must know how to dazzle it, be able to make it hope, and if necessary know how to deceive it.
»
To become the master of the people one must know how to dazzle it. « 
 
2. How the People regards Revolutions: The revolutions are sometimes regarded with favour by the people, because they represent the triumph of its claims. But the people quickly becomes indifferent, and seeks only tranquility. It is always the people that suffers in revolutions, for it pays the cost in blood and poverty. It is for this reason that it often acclaims the return of a master. 
 
"A revolution is effected from above, that is, by the leaders of the old regime; but when it is victorious it is rapidly vulgarised, because the people interferes and applies the only means in its power—violence. To destroy is within its scope; to reconstruct is beyond it.
» To destroy is within its scope; to reconstruct is beyond it. «
  
3. The Psychology of Revolutionary Crowds: The revolutionary crowd is formed of transitory elements, recruited from all classes, but chiefly from the instinctive and criminal categories. It is the crowd that acclaims or murders kings, and whose violence has always been the principal factor of revolutions. The psychology of revolutionary crowds shows us that they possess the ordinary mental characteristics of all crowds: contagion, unconsciousness, exaggerated sentiments, intolerance, etc. They are above all remarkable for their credulity and their docility towards their leaders. 
4. The Part of the Leaders in Popular Movements: Although the people in rebellion generally begins by destroying everything, it soon grows weary of anarchy, and instinctively seeks a leader. It loves equality, but it respects titles and prestige. It was thus that all the great popular movements—those of the Reformation, the Revolution, etc.—were effected under the guidance of leaders. 
  
We have seen in all times apostles arise who have had an irresistible influence over the popular mind by cultivating its instincts and speaking its language. The people always follows them with enthusiasm, whether they be ignorant fanatics, hard and upright logicians, ferocious maniacs, or eloquent speakers. Whatever their aims, the leaders of the people are obliged to enter into reciprocity with it, to recognise its psychology, even if they do not share its sentiments. They must be in communion with it, or they will not act upon it.
 » The people always follows apostles with enthusiasm. «

[...] From the preceding considerations we may draw the following conclusions: (1) The people, by reason of its instinctive soul, accepts without discussion the ideas presented to it. (2) By reason of its sentimental soul it incarnates these ideas in leaders, to whom it often delegates the direction of its destinies. (3) By reason of its mobile soul it personifies all its sentiments in a fetich. To become the master of the people one must know how to dazzle it, be able to make it hope, and if necessary know how to deceive it. (4) Finally, the leader must possess prestige, speak in images, incessantly repeat the same ideas in different terms, and know how to act by persuasion and never by reasoning." 
 
Le Bon further elaborates on the role of leaders and contagion in precipitating political revolutions, noting that discontent alone is insufficient without amplification through suggestion: 
 
"The role of the leader in all revolutions is very considerable. He does not create the beliefs which provoke them, but he directs them. Without him they would often remain latent and ineffectual. Although the revolution which overthrew the Bourbon dynasty was ripe, we know from the memoirs of contemporaries that without the prestige of Lafayette it would probably have remained nothing but a local riot. Whenever a revolution breaks out in one point of a territory, we see similar revolutions breaking out in succession in all the countries which surround it, even when communication is difficult. It was thus that in 1848 all Europe was inflamed by the revolutionary conflagration, and was shaken by it in spite of the slowness and difficulty of communication."
 
Le Bon finally examines the outcomes of political revolutions as often involving the establishment of new power structures, persecutions, and limited social transformations:
 
"Contrary to what occurred in religious revolutions, political revolutions show us merely peoples adapting themselves to new conditions of existence. We have already seen that this adaptation is effected by means of slow successive evolutions, which render violent revolutions useless. [...] The results of political revolutions being merely displacements of wealth and the triumph of certain classes, we may conclude, contrary to the general opinion, that they have been without psychological significance. They strike the imagination because they are accompanied by much violence, and blood flows in streams.
 
»
 
Contagion, unconsciousness, exaggerated sentiments, intolerance, etc. «
 
But when we look a little closer we soon find that the economic or social changes which result from them are very slight. The importance of political revolutions must not, however, be exaggerated. They sometimes cost a country very dear, although they change nothing in respect of its natural conditions. It is especially when they involve disastrous wars that their results are most pernicious." 
 
Reference:
 
See also:

Monday, December 15, 2025

Hurst Cycles Market Update and Outlook into Early 2026 | David Hickson

This is our final market update for the year, reviewing our usual set of instruments (SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, NIFTY, Gold, BTCUSD) and outlining what to expect as we move into 2026.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.
 
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is advancing out of a November 21 trough that is definitively an 80-day cycle low and remains a viable candidate for a completed 40-week cycle trough. This advance is occurring within the larger context of an April 2025 trough phased as at least an 18-month cycle low, which continues to dominate the intermediate trend. Price behavior has been consistently bullish: clean crossings above the 20-day FLD, achievement of FLD targets, and successful defense of the 20-day FLD during the most recent 20-day trough (Dec 10). No bearish structural behavior has emerged to invalidate the 40-week trough interpretation.    Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 40-week, and higher-order cycles of each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts.  A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 Actual average lengths of the nominal 20-day, 40-day, 80-day, 20-week, and higher-order cycles of
each instrument are indicated in the stacked, color-coded boxes at the bottom right of the charts. 
 
A 40-day cycle trough is expected into late December (± Dec 26-29), likely producing a shallow pullback. This should be followed by another advance before a larger corrective phase into an 80-day or 40-week trough in late January or early February (± Jan 30-Feb 6). Unless bearish confirmation appears, that trough is expected to be corrective rather than trend-ending, with the larger structure remaining bullish.
 
NASDAQThe NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shares the same broad cycle architecture as the S&P 500, with a confirmed 80-day trough on November 21 and the unresolved question of whether the 40-week trough is already in place or still ahead. However, relative weakness is evident: price has struggled to remain above the 20-day FLD, and short-term momentum is softer. The orange dashed composite model line reflects this by projecting a deeper decline into the next larger trough compared with the S&P 500.    A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.

A 40-day trough is expected near year-end or early January, followed by a decline into an 80-day trough in late January or early February. If downside pressure increases meaningfully, that later trough may resolve as the 40-week cycle low. Synchronization with the S&P 500 remains the dominant expectation.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX also shows a November 21 trough that could be either an 80-day or a 40-week cycle low, but unlike U.S. indices, price action has failed to confirm bullish intent. The market crossed above the 20-day FLD but did not achieve its projected upside target, and subsequent price action has been weak. While the 20-day trough found approximate FLD support, the amplitude and momentum are noticeably inferior, introducing bearish risk.    A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.

A 40-day trough is expected into late December, followed by a more important trough in late January or early February. Given current behavior, the probability is increasing that this later trough resolves as a 40-week cycle low. A decisive bearish turn in the ASX would materially strengthen the global commonality case for a synchronized 40-week trough.
 
German DAXThe DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.
 
German DAX: The DAX cycle labeling is less precise, but price action provides important guidance. The November 21 low has been phased as a 40-day trough but sits close to the projected positions of the 20-week and 40-week cycles. Despite analytical ambiguity, price crossed above the 20-day FLD, achieved its target, and remains above short-term support—behavior more consistent with a market that has already completed a larger-degree trough.    A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.

A pullback into a late-December 40-day trough is expected, with another due toward late January. Unless price begins to display clear bearish characteristics, the evidence favors the interpretation that the 40-week trough formed in November, implying that forthcoming declines should remain corrective.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.
 
Indian NIFTY: The NIFTY exhibits one of the clearest cycle structures. A 20-week trough occurred in early August, followed by an 80-day trough in early November. Recent price action suggests a 40-day trough has just formed near the projected centers of both the 20-week and 40-week cycles, raising the possibility that the larger cycle trough has already occurred. The current advance is consistent with a market rebounding from a significant cycle low.    Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.

Price is expected to cross and hold above the 20-day FLD and achieve its upside target. If the 40-week trough is already in place, the coming weeks should remain upward-biased. Risk only increases if the advance fails and the cycle structure shifts into a bearish-shaped configuration toward year-end.
 
GoldGold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.
 
Gold: Gold is operating within a structurally bullish environment despite uncertainty surrounding a possible 54-month cycle peak in October. Price action since that peak has challenged its validity, suggesting either that the peak was misidentified or that longer-degree bullish cycles (9-year, 18-year) are overwhelming it. Trough behavior has been exemplary, with repeated successful interactions with the 20-day FLD, including support during the most recent 40-day trough.    Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.

Gold is likely to retest or exceed the October highs before encountering its next significant corrective phase. The next major timing window is the 20-week cycle trough expected in the third week of January, which should be monitored closely for trend continuation or structural change.
 
BitcoinBitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s November 21 low is currently labeled as an 80-day trough, but it remains a candidate for a larger 18-month cycle trough. Unlike equities, Bitcoin has not displayed strong post-trough bullish expansion. Price has struggled to hold above the 20-day FLD, and recent action shows mild bearish leakage below it, keeping the larger trough question unresolved.    Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.

Focus is now on the development of the next 40-day cycle trough. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that the true 18-month trough still lies ahead. Until stronger bullish confirmation appears, Bitcoin should be treated as structurally uncertain rather than trend-confirmed.
 
Reference:
 
See also: