 |
| Peter L. Brandt (Aug 23, 2016) - "Continuation broadening patterns are extremely rare. Broadening patterns more often end up as reversals." See also HERE |
Saturday, August 27, 2016
Continuation Broadening Patterns Extremely Rare | Peter Brandt
SPX vs True Node Speed | Upcoming Eclipses + Moon Wobbles
 |
| During lunar and solar eclipses the lunar node starts wobbling, that is it moves back and forth, retrograde, stationary, direct, etc. very quickly (see Moon Wobbles in a NASA animation HERE). On Aug 30 (Tue) Mercury turns retrograde. The annular solar eclipse on Sep 1 (Thu) produces a T-square to a Saturn-Neptune square. The cycle of the true Lunar Node is always exactly 18.613 Solar Years = 6,798.364 CD. The 4th harmonic of 18.618 Solar Years is 1,699.591 CD = 4.6 Solar Years. Hence the Lunar Node moves 30° in the zodiac every 1.55 Solar Years (= 18.613 months). 18.613 Solar Years / 12 = 18.613 months = 1.55 years = 80.9 weeks = 566.53 CD / 8 = 10.12 weeks = 55 TD (Trading Days). More about the Rhythm of the Node HERE |
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro
A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.
When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart.
 |
| Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade." |
The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.
With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.
Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.
How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.
 |
| See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE |
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
SPX vs Sun's Movement | 150 Degrees from Spring Equinox
 |
| In the late afternoon (EDT) of Aug 22 (Mon) the Sun had moved 150 solar degrees (= geocentric longitude = 155 CD) from the Spring Equinox. More details on W.D. Gann's concepts of Natural Trading Days and Timing with Solar Degrees HERE + HERE. Charted and calculated with Timing Solution. |
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations | Maurice Cotterell
There appears to be a correlation between the rise and fall of civilizations with the rise and fall of radiation from the sun. The graph shows a long-term envelope of sunspot activity derived from the center graph of Carbon 14. More carbon 14 is absorbed in the growth rings of tress during the sunspot minima. Sunspot minima also correlates with mini-ice ages and a winter severity index based on a mean for Paris and London - for the period shown. The Maya disappeared during a sunspot minimum (see also HERE + HERE + HERE)
Reference:
Friday, August 19, 2016
DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations
 |
| Enlarge |
I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.
The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.
The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.
 |
| Enlarge |
The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.
Thursday, August 18, 2016
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
SPX vs SoLunar Map | August 2016
 |
| Upcoming turn-days are: Aug 18 (Thu), Aug 21 (Sun), Aug 25 (Thu), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu). See also HERE |
SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2016
 |
| Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: Aug 17 (Wed), Aug 23 (Tue), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu). See also HERE |
Inigo Owen Jones | The Weather Prophet
 |
| Inigo Owen Jones | See also HERE & HERE |
The Australian long-range weather forecaster Inigo Owen Jones
(1872-1954) is well written into 20th century folklore in the
Australian bush. His forecasts, issued from 1925 to his death, were
highly regarded by many Australian farmers, the general public and some
of the media. His theory is based on the idea that the solar system is a
vast electromagnetic body that is controlled by the magnetic fields of
the planets. Jupiter
is 1300 times larger than the Earth and has 12 moons, and the rotation of the
vast orb takes ten times longer than Earth. This all combines to create a
magnetic field much greater than that of the Earth. Inigo Jones
discovered that when the major planets, e.g. Jupiter, moved towards the
point of celestial longitude known as eighteen hours of right ascension,
which points to the fixed star Vega, it caused sunspot minima. He also
found that on each such occasion there was a more or less severe drought
in eastern Australia. The working hypothesis from his observations is
that the seasons are controlled by the magnetic fields of the four major
planets and the Moon. There are longer droughts when there are more planets pointing towards Vega and floods when they are 180 degrees from Vega.
Droughts cancel out floods if the planets are opposite each other at
these points. Sunspot cycles are on average the same length as the cycle
of Jupiter. Around the globe it is possible to show that greater sunspot activity causes more precipitation. Put
simply, Inigo Jones believed
that cyclical variations in the activity of the Sun - visible as
sunspots - controlled the Earth’s climate, and that these
variations were themselves largely determined by the orbits of Moon,
Jupiter,
Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. He
considered five planetary-solar cycles of 35 years, 36 years, 59 years,
71 years and 84 years, and on looking back at the Australian Growing
Season rainfall of 35, 36, 59, 71 and 84 years previously, he gained an
appreciation of the expected rainfall for the forecast season or year in
question.
 |
| Australian Rainfall Cycles |
If
one wants to know what the weather would be like on 1 January next
year, one would calculate the positions of the planets on that day and
then look back through the record of weather observations to a time when
the planetary positions were the same. If the locations of the planets
matched, then so would the weather – more or less. Or perhaps less than
more, for what seemed to set Jones apart from other weather prophets
were the levels of complexity he added to this basic cyclical system. It
is worth noting that to make predictions with this system one needs a
very, very long, unbroken series of weather observations. Jones was fond
of quoting the opinion of Queensland University’s professor of
mathematics that a full test of his theory could not be made without 300
years of data.
 |
| Inigo Owen Jones (1938): Why I build the Crohamhurst Observatory (HERE) |
Great Game 2.0 | Andrei Ilyich Fursov
 |
| Hit Syria – Target Russia – Contain China |
Monday, August 1, 2016
US Homeownership at Lowest Level in over 50 Years
 |
| The Census Bureau has been tracking homeownership rates in its data series going back to 1965 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. In the second quarter 2016, the homeowner- ship rate dropped to 62.9%, the lowest point on record. Source: Wolf Street |
SoLunar Map | August - September 2016
 |
| Upcoming turn-days are: Jul 30 (Sat), Aug 03 (Wed), Aug 07 (Sun), Aug 11 (Thu), Aug 14 (Sun), Aug 18 (Thu), Aug 21 (Sun), Aug 25 (Thu), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 05 (Mon), Sep 09 (Fri), Sep 13 (Tue), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 20 (Tue), Sep 23 (Fri), Sep 27 (Tue), Oct 01 (Sat). Previous SoLunar Maps HERE |
 |
| These charts depict the solunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the solunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). The solunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). The solunar rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. |
Cosmic Cluster Days | August - September 2016
 |
| The basic assumption here is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel. Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are: Jul 29 (Fri), Aug 01 (Mon), Aug 08 (Mon), Aug 09 (Tue), Aug 10 (Wed), Aug 14 (Sun), Aug 17 (Wed), Aug 23 (Tue), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu), Sep 04 (Sun), Sep 09 (Fri), Sep 15 (Thu), Sep 17 (Sat), Sep 27 (Tue), Oct 06 (Thu). Previous CCDs are HERE |
Sunday, July 31, 2016
In 50 Years this has never failed to trigger a Bear Market | Jesse Felder
Jesse Felder (Jul 30, 2016 @ Zero Hedge) - Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use to define a bear market. In other words, buying the new highs in the S&P 500 today means you believe “this time is different.” It could turn out that way but history shows that sort of thinking to be very dangerous to your financial well-being.
 |
| On July 29 CNN's Fear & Greed Index indicated "Extreme Greed" Source: CNN Fear & Greed Index |
 |
| Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model on August 01, 2016 = Most 'euphoric' since August 2015. Source: Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model |
Weekly Chart Pattern Indicator Turned Bearish | Thomas Bulkowski
 |
| After the close on Friday, July 29th, Thomas Bulkowski's Chart Pattern Indicator for the S&P 500 Index turned bearish. The indicator is a ratio of bullish patterns to the total of bullish and bearish patterns, expressed as a percentage. More details on Thomas Bulkowski's Chart Pattern Indicator background (HERE) |
 |
| The chart pattern indicator line is not as important as the signals which it generates, but I have included a chart of the indicator itself so you can check for divergence. Divergence often gives hints as to which way the index moves in the future. Look for lower/higher peaks in the indicator while the index is making flat or higher/lower peaks. The index will often follow the indicator (HERE) Warning: If you use this indicator for periods shorter than weekly, you will likely be in for a nasty surprise. Due to the way I have it configured, signals up to a week old can change or disappear. Thhe current sell signal may not be valid for another week or it may change in a few days when more NR7s break out. Thus, this indicator is best used as a weekly signal (that is, signals older than a week are reliable) of market trend (HERE) |
Saturday, July 30, 2016
U.S. Oil Industry | Record Exports and Worst Profits since 1999
 |
| Big Oil had a horrible Q2 quarter. So far in Q3, oil prices had averaged lower than in Q2, and refining margins are much lower too. Exxon has the worst profit since 1999, and the industry cannot survive on current oil prices. “What we’re seeing is that there’s just no place for the supermajors to hide”, Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in St. Louis, said in an interview. “Oil prices, natural gas, refining, it all looks very bad right now.” (HERE) |
Friday, July 29, 2016
SPX vs Inverted 354 CD (Lunar Year) Cycle
 |
| The Lunar Year Cycle (Medium Term Delta) seems to have inverted recently (from L-L and H-H polarity to L-H and H-L polarity). If the current polarity persists a major high in the S&P500 by mid August is likely. |
 |
| SPY | Neural Network-Forecast | by Alphee Lavoie |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)