Monday, November 11, 2024

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Barometers │ Turning Points in 2025

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices for 2025 (EST/EDT).
 
Q4 2024.
 
Q1 2025.
 
Q2 2025. 
 
Q3 2025.  
 
Q4 2025.  

The Bradley Barometer (also known as Bradley Siderograph or simply Bradley Index) is a financial astrology indicator created by Donald Albert Bradley (1925-1974) in the 1940s. Bradley developed a barometer that combines planetary transits. By assigning positive values to favorable transits and negative values to unfavorable ones, he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph.


The equation for the 
Bradley Barometer indicator is calculated as follows:

[ (5) × (Long Term Value Sums + Declination Value Sums) ] + Middle Term Value Sums

The factor of five in the formula gives greater weight to (1) planetary aspects considered "Long Term" and (2) declinations. The Middle Term values represent planetary aspects that are important but receive less weight than the Long Terms. There are a total of 36 planetary aspects considered in the Barometer, broken down as follows:
  • Long Term Aspects: 10 of the 36 aspects are classified as Long Term. These aspects generally involve the slower-moving outer planets (e.g., Jupiter, Saturn), and Bradley believed they should carry greater weight.
  • Middle Term Aspects: 26 of the 36 aspects are classified as Middle Term. These aspects include the Sun and the faster-moving planets, from Mercury to Mars.
  • Short Term Aspects: None of the 36 aspects are classified as Short Term. Bradley considered aspects involving the Moon to be Short Term, affecting only a few hours. Therefore, Short Term aspects are not incorporated in the Bradley Barometer, as they are not expected to influence medium- to long-term market behavior.
The slower-moving planets with longer synodic periods (e.g., Jupiter and other outer planets) compose the Long Term aspects, and these receive five times the weight of the Middle Term aspects. A synodic period between two planets is the time it takes for them to return to the same relative position in the sky (i.e., their conjunction).
 
The original geocentric Bradley Barometer takes planetary declination into account—planets higher in the sky above the horizon are given more positive values, while those lower in the sky, below the horizon, are assigned negative values. According to Donald Bradley, "The value of the declination factor is half the algebraic sum of the given declinations of Venus and Mars—northern declination considered positive and southern declination negative." It is also important to note that Bradley used a multiplier when calculating the value of declinations for the overall barometer.

Regarding this multiplier, Bradley stated that the Long Term and declination factors "may be given considerably more weight by multiplying them by 3, 4, or 5 times, depending on experimentation." Therefore, in computing the Bradley Barometer, one adds together (1) the sum of all the planetary aspects of the Middle Terms, and (2) the Declinations and Long Term Factors, adjusted by a multiplier, such as 3X, 4X, or 5X. 

 
The heliocentric index is an adaptation of the original geocentric Barometer concept, using heliocentric planetary positions instead. 
 

Although there is no known physical correlation between these celestial movements and market behavior, the Bradley Barometer has been shown to correlate well with market turning points. However, regarding the limitations of his astro-indicator, Donald Bradley himself remarked the following:
 
"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages. A limitation of the siderograph is that it cannot be construed as a forecast of secular trends. In statistical terminology, 'lines of regression' fitted to the market course and to the potential should not be expected to completely agree, for reasons obvious to anyone with keen business sense or commercial training."

Bradley indices are often misinterpreted, with many linking the slopes directly to market trends. Tops and bottoms can signal potential turning points in price, whether a peak or a trough. The importance of these turn dates is not dependent on the magnitude of the change before or after the turn, meaning that even moderate shifts can be just as significant as larger ones.

Abbreviations: geo = Geocentric Bradley Index; helio = Heliocentric Bradley Index; (L) = low; (H) = high. Expect the exactitude of turning points to be within ±1 day.

Geocentric Turning Points: 
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    
2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    
2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    

Heliocentric Turning Points:    
2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)  
 
2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)


Geocentric and Heliocentric Turning Points:    
2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)    
 


The New Moon typically marks the beginning of a cycle, while the Full Moon signifies its completion.
In bull markets, New Moons are often bottoms, and Full Moons are tops.
In bear markets, New Moons are often tops, and Full Moons are bottoms.

Major news releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC, etc.) and options expiration dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching) can delay or disrupt typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.
 
Price always moves from Consolidation to Expansion, never from Consolidation to Reversal or from Consolidation to Retracement. After an Expansion, two possible scenarios can occur: either a Retracement or a Reversal, followed by another Expansion or Consolidation.
 

Sunday, November 10, 2024

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 
 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 
Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18
Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR
. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.
US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.
Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

The Illusion of Control: The Fed's Quiet Coup d'État | Gerry Nolan

As Mike Lee states, the Executive Branch was meant to be under the President’s executive branch and direction. And yet, the Fed remains the ultimate untouchable, a fortress of financial power immune to democratic oversight or any real accountability. Let’s face it: The Fed is not about serving the people; it’s the nerve center of a Ponzi scheme so vast that it makes Wall Street look like pocket change.

 » The Federal Reserve isn’t a public service, it’s the vault where the
sovereignty of the American people was locked away a century ago. «

For over a century, the Fed has held the American economy in a chokehold, dictating monetary policy in ways that serve the banking elites and global financiers, while keeping citizens in perpetual debt-enslavement. It’s not a “politically independent institution” as they like to spin it - it’s a profit machine, designed to siphon wealth upwards and keep the masses at bay with breadcrumbs of credit and endless inflation.

 » The Fed is a profit machine, designed to siphon wealth upwards and keep
 the masses at bay with breadcrumbs of credit and endless inflation. «

The Fed controls interest rates, injects trillions into the economy at will, and manipulates the currency supply, all without a single vote from the American people. True sovereignty would mean a government with control over its own currency, accountable to its citizens, not be held to private bankers. But ending the Fed? That would mean dismantling the very backbone of U.S. financial imperialism, a move that would bring about sovereign economic control, yet will never happen under the current system of oligarchic “democracy.”

The real question isn’t whether Trump (or any president) could rein in the Fed; it’s whether the American people will ever realize that the Federal Reserve isn’t a public service, it’s the vault where their own sovereignty was locked away a century ago.

The Fed's Ponzi machine may be untouchable, but the illusion of freedom is slipping. How long until the curtain falls?

Quoted from:

Friday, November 8, 2024

The Kosher Candidate | Wyatt Peterson

How strange, eh? Trump wins the election and all’s quiet on the Western front. No Antifa or BLM thugs tearing up major cities; no suspicious activity at the polls or meaningful cases of voter fraud; no histrionic media warning about the impending ‘rise of fascism.’ Nothing! It’s almost as if Trump was the deep state’s candidate all along, something I have contended since October 7, 2023.
 
 » Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his
upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. «
 
My MAGA friends assure me the vote for Trump was simply ‘too big to rig’ and that his victory is cause for uninhibited celebration. Our broken election system that garnered so much attention just four years ago has miraculously been restored and conservative Americans can once again place their faith in the democratic process. Hallelujah!

  » There is nothing patriotic about allowing a bunch of rich Jews
to dictate the terms of our national discourse. «

The wealthy individuals who have cozied up to Trump over the past 12 months are single-issue voters, and that issue is Israel. [...] It’s probably safe to assume that the millions of dollars Trump receives from people like Helberg and Thiel motivates his rhetoric about deporting “anti-Israel protestors” and bombing Iran more so than any deeply held philosemitic convictions. Many of his supporters, however, fail to make this connection and, as a result, adopt similar attitudes and opinions to those their hero has been paid so handsomely to express. Indeed, the major benefit of a Trump presidency from the perspective of these people is his unprecedented popularity, which automatically ensures countless supporters for the Zionist cause. 
 
Had Kamala Harris been installed as America’s 47th president, I honestly believe a majority of Trump’s base would’ve quickly grown tired of watching material and financial aid go to Israel, thus creating a fissure in the Zionist edifice and potentially leading to an overdue reckoning with the Jewish Question. As it stands, Trump will likely live up to his billing as history’s most pro-Israel president and he’ll almost certainly be granted a free pass by his supporters who seem to view him in the same starry-eyed way as a child views his favorite athlete or movie star.


Another single-issue voter close to Trump these days is billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. A longtime donor to Democratic candidates and organizations such as Michael Bloomberg, Chuck Schumer, the Democratic National Committee and Planned Parenthood, Ackman announced his support for Trump in July after complaining about Joe Biden’s “lack of support” for the Jewish state.


[...] Conservatives tend to believe the fight for the soul of our nation is being waged between ‘progressive leftists’ and ‘America First.’ In reality, ‘Wokeism’ is but a tool in the hands of powerful forces who wield it to destabilize Western Christian civilization. The second the ‘woke’ golem goes off the reservation and begins operating with a measure of autonomy, its creators shift their shape and pose as patriotic crusaders in the fight to reclaim our nation from the monster they have created. There is nothing patriotic about allowing a bunch of rich Jews to dictate the terms of our national discourse and to chase from public life anyone they deem a threat to their interests at that time.

 » Trump is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe 
they’re entitled to a return on their deposit. «

Which brings me back to Trump. Anyone who believes ‘The Donald’ will be calling the shots in his upcoming administration has no idea how our political system works. Howard Lutnick, the billionaire New York Jew heading the Trump transition team, has already stated he’s working closely with Jared Kushner on hiring personnel for the administration; and former ‘Never Trumper’ Ben Shapiro has indicated ultra-Zionists Mike Pompeo and David Friedman will be in charge of Trump’s “Israel policy.” Shapiro disclosed the information during an online debate with Jewish activists Sam Harris and Bari Weiss, telling them, “on his Israel policy, Mike Pompeo and David Friedman are the most likely people to be in the administration ... I know precisely the people talking to him — I’m not speculating about that.” Later in the segment, Shapiro rightly stated that “Trump is the most pro-Israel president in American history,” revealing where his, and so many of his co-religionists’, true interests lie.


Recently I was reading through some old political newsletters and magazines I’ve accumulated over the years. One item which caught my attention was an August 2012 edition of Michael Hoffman’s Revisionist History newsletter titled, ‘The Quadrennial Return of the Lesser of Two Evils Meme.’ In it, Hoffman wrote the following about former Republican presidential candidate Willard ‘Mitt’ Romney:

"Mr. Romney is an obvious opportunist who would say or do just about anything to get elected. The pro-life argument only holds water if the murder of unborn Iranian babies in their mother’s womb counts for nothing with the Religious Right. Romney is the preferred candidate of the bankers and super-rich, and of war-Zionism. Within a year or less of being elected President it is very likely that he will bomb, or help the Israelis to bomb (the media weasel word is “strike”) Iran back into the stone age, with the familiar, cynical, Talmudic doubletalk about “collateral damage” when the “surgical strikes” somehow drift beyond Iranian nuclear power facilities and into “command and control centers of the regime” (Iran’s civilian city centers.) This is the documented Israeli tactic against Lebanon and Palestine, and US military policy is becoming increasingly indistinguishable from Israeli barbarity."

What was true of Mitt Romney in 2012 is equally true of Donald Trump in 2024, only the latter once again has the US military at his disposal and is surrounded by Zionist fanatics who believe they’re entitled to a return on their deposit.

Thursday, November 7, 2024

US Stock Rally vs. Market Breadth | Jason Goepfert

The indices soared [on Wednesday, November 6] while the average stock did not. It was one of the worst-ever days for participation on a day the S&P 500 jumped more than 2.5%.

S&P 500 after a >2.5% gain with less than 70% NYSE up issues and up volume.

On the NYSE, fewer than 70% of issues rose, and less than 70% of volume flowed into those issues. This has only happened 3 unique times - the aftermath of the 1987 and 2020 crashes and around the 2000 peak.

 

 S&P 500 futures after gapping up more than 1% the day after the US presidential election.
 
On track for only the 3rd gap up of more than +1% the morning after an election since the inception of S&P 500 futures. The other two were pretty, pretty good.
 

The 24 Chinese Solar Terms in 2025 │ Winter Begins Today ( 立冬 - Lì Dōng )

 Winter begins on November 7, which is 225° from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries). 
This is what W.D. Gann referred to as a Natural Trading Day. 225° represents 0.618 of the solar year.
 
A solar term ( 節氣 ) is one of twenty-four periods in the traditional Chinese lunisolar calendar, each corresponding to a specific astronomical event or natural phenomenon. Starting from the spring equinox, these points are spaced 15 degrees, or roughly 15 days, apart along the ecliptic and are used by lunisolar calendars to remain synchronized with the seasons.

Changes in trend often occur every 30° as the Sun moves into the next sign of the zodiac.
30° roughly equals one month, 30 calendar days or 21 trading days.
 
W.D. Gann knew that the astronomical year begins on March 21st and that this was also a very important seasonal time for financial markets. He used geometrical divisions of the solar year (degrees of solar longitude as well as calendar days) to ascertain turning points. Changes in trend often occur every 30° as the Sun moves into the next sign of the zodiac.
 
Dates at 45°, 90°, 135°, 180°, 225°, 270°, and 315° solar degrees from the Vernal Equinox (0° Aries) are what Gann called Natural Trading Days, with 225° representing 0.618 of the solar year (November 7). Though 15°, 22.5° and 45° also may coincide with changes in trend, Gann stressed the importance of the cardinal points (90° apart). He also used multiples of 90° and 144°, i.e., 90°, 180°, 270°, etc., and 144°, 288°, 432°, 576°, 720°, etc. 
  
 
Combining the Chinese Solar Terms and Gann astro-methods for market timing with the following concepts may further increase the probability of accurately pinpointing market turns:
 
 
 

 

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch

With a clear winner decided, the history of market gains from Presidential Election Day to year-end is encouraging. As shown in the tables above and below, the market tends to rally from Election Day to year-end, with a few exceptions due to exogenous factors.

 DJIA up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%.
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Profit-taking at the end of 1984 kept stocks flat after the rally from the July bear market bottom, driven by anticipation of Reagan’s landslide reelection victory. The infamous undecided election roiled stocks at the end of 2000 amid the dot-com bear market of 2000-2001. The Great Financial Crisis and the 2007-2009 generational bear market caused a further plunge in late 2008, fueled by shrinking economic data and uncertainty surrounding a change in party and the incoming, unknown Obama administration. The escalating European Debt Crisis kept the stock market on edge in late 2012.


Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.