Gold Rises Not with Inflation, But with Geopolitical Issues | Martin Armstrong

Comment by FD: Is he breaking the London metals dealers’ hold to suppress the gold price?

 

 There is NO STORE OF VALUE because everything rises and falls.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: I am tired of hearing the same constant nonsense about gold being intentionally suppressed by dealers, and that’s why it’s not at $10,000. I have traded against these people for years. Here is a clip from  The Forecaster with Barclay [Leib], who used to work for me years ago, talking about how he checked me out with Goldman Sachs before taking the job. 

 

Every manipulation these dealers ever pulled off was to the upside – not to suppress gold. They sell 10x more when people think gold is rising, not declining. This BS claim that they were suppressing gold to help the government keep inflation in check is total BS!  

 

[...] Gold rises NOT with inflation, but with geopolitical issues. Here was the National Debt Q2 1980 at $877.614bn. As of Q2 2024, it stood at $36,218bn. The debt has risen 40.29% since 1980. Gold hit $875 on January 21, 1980, in the cash market. If gold rose because of inflation or the debt level, then it should be $35,260 per ounce. The gold dealer could buy all of Wall Street with that price.

 

These people who make up these excuses [gold price manipulation] are unbelievable. Gold pays no interest, which is why they lease it out. Otherwise, it is a dead asset that brings in no income. It is a hedge against the government in times of uncertainty—that’s it. It is not a hedge against inflation or the size of the debt. That has been a great sales pitch, but that is it.

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (April 8, 2025) - Part II – Gold Manipulation?

DJIA Panic Cycle to Hit During the Week of April 28 - May 2 | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Joe: Marty, I have now heard it all. When I asked why the stock market crashed, I was not told it was tariffs. I was told that “Armstrong told his clients there would be a Panic at the end of March to the first week of April. All the huge wealth funds are Armstrong’s clients.” I guess they flipped a coin. Heads, Trump did it; tails, Armstrong did it. [...]

DJIA Panic Cycle kicks in during the week of April 28 - May 2

followed by Directional Change in the week of May 12 - 16.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Look, the computer from the start of this year pointed to the last week of March and the first week of April. That was well before the tariff announcement. Trump’s tariffs are opening doors, not closing them. Maybe the smart ones figured that out and turned to me. These people can blame me as always. I think the difference this time is that we have opened Socrates so the entire world can see it. [...] Everyone knows this is not my personal opinion. [...] It’s Just Time.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (April 4, 2025) - The Dow Crash – Was it Just Time?

 

 Understanding Martin Armstrong's Weekly Timing Arrays.

 

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update, David Hickson, March 10, 2025.

Medvedev Watching the River Flow

» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 

We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «

 

Dmitry Medvedev, April 3, 2025.

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.

 

From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.

 

Dmitry Medvedev, March 31, 2025.

 

See also:

 Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Alex Krainer (March 18, 2025) - The Tragedy of Europe's Idiocracy.

Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Hans: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. [...] I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

» From about May 15th 2025 on, Europe is going into war, 

Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’ forecasts [...] The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year [2026], and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital as soon as possible. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU. [...] Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital [by October 2025]. This is about taxes all over again.
 

» We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. «

Martin Armstrong, March 17, 2025.

[...] I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe. The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

 » We are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.

Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026. PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. 

Major recession globally into 2028. EU prepares for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. «

[...] While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

» Macron and Starmer are insane. Putin can detonate a 100-megaton nuke and the tidal wave

will wipe out Britain entirely. The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!! «

Martin Armstrong, March 21, 2025.

 

[...] Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. [...] Everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. [...] Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (March 21, 2025) - Europe’s Date with Destiny.
Martin Armstrong (March 20, 2025) - Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (March 17, 2025) - Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction. 

TPR (March 11, 2025) - The ECB's Dystopian Digital Euro Dictatorship Set to Launch in October 2025. 

Jim Bianco (February 13, 2025) - The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention.

Ahead of Iran War, Capital Flows Flee the US and Europe | Martin Armstrong

Comment by EKL: Your computer model tracks capital flows, [...] capital is being withdrawn globally in preparation for war. We could not make decisions in our boardroom without consulting Socrates anymore. It is unbiased and that is the most valuable asset in times of such uncertainty. God bless.

Martin Armstrong's Socrates Daily Global Capital Flows Heat Map as of March 17, 2025.

 » From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: Yes, you are correct. We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. It is even leaving Canada and Mexico. 

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (March 17, 2025) - Capital Flows Canada, Mexico, Europe.

» Perhaps we should credit the new president of the United States,
Donald Trump, for accelerating this process. «
Lu QiYuan, March 15, 2025.

See also:

Helena Glass (March 16, 2025) - Back Door World War III - A Netanyahu-Trump Collaboration.

Martin Armstrong (March 1, 2025) - Europe Will Go to War around May 15, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct.

Martin Armstrong (December 23, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction.

Markets Crash On Cue & Trump Won't Rule Out Recession | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Kirk: It looks like Trump is aware of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Markets crashed right on cue with Socrates, and he refused to rule out a recession. What is most curious is that you had a Panic Cycle for this week of March 10 [...]

 

Reply by Martin Armstrong: The ECM turned down on May 7, 2024. That was the day of the attempted assassination of Zelensky. Within weeks, the central banks started lowering rates. [...] We are headed into a Global RECESSION no matter what Trump thinks or does.

 

 Dow Jones Industrials Index - Weekly Timing Arrays (Feb 24 - May 12, 2025)

[...] This is NOT my personal opinion. Socrates is the only fully functioning Artificial Intelligence Computer with more than a 40-year track record. [...] It will be a depression in some regions, primarily Europe. One country alone does not dictate the trend globally. Trump cannot create an economic boom when the rest of the world is imploding.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (March 10, 2025) - Markets Crash On Cue & Trump Refuses to Rule Out Recession.

 Explanation of Martin Armstrong's Weekly Timing Arrays.

 

See also:

Martin Armstrong (December 23, 2024) - Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction.

Europe Will Go to War, Lose, and Euro Will Become Extinct | Martin Armstrong

It looks like every country in Europe is backing more war in Ukraine. And now, there is renewed talk of an EU army. Martin Armstrong says:

"Why? Because they all are facing the collapse of the European Union. The debt is just unbelievable. They never consolidated. Between Covid, Climate Change and sanctions on Russia, the German economy has shrunk 3% to 5%. The economic growth of the EU is appalling. Europe is falling, and this is why they need war. So, they are backing Zelensky.”

 UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's ‘coalition of the willing’, March 2, 2025:

European NATO members desperately want World War 3 with Russia, and the US to help them.
Most, if not all, in this group photo would be ideal candidates to be hanged or shot 

as fanatical and ruthless war criminals in the forthcoming Nuremberg Trials 2.0.

 

In a new report on March 2nd, Armstrong lays out the case why war in Europe is coming and coming soon:

“In this report, I gathered a bunch of headlines:  London Financial Times, what’s the headline?  ‘America is Now the Enemy of the West.’ This is why Trump is saying ‘We are out.’  Zelensky has admitted that 58% of the $350 billion the US gave him is missing.  You cut the funding, and you are going to find out the truth. Trump should cut every single penny. Bring it all out. Zelensky is counting on Europe to replace the United States. This is why he’s so arrogant [...] Trump should get the hell out of NATO–as soon as possible.”

 » Trump should get the US out of NATO asap. From about May 15th on, Europe is going into war, Europe will lose, gold is coming

to America, the US dollar is not collapsing anytime soon, the Euro will become extinct, Ukraine is going dead. That's it. « 

Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

So, why are all these reports coming out in the last few months about gold coming to America from Europe? Armstrong says, “Last week, I was on the phone, and I can’t tell you how much, but when you are about to go into war, capital moves. [...] Right now, I am concerned from about May 15th on. [...] Our computer “Socrates” says Europe is going into war, and I put it into this report, Europe will lose. [...] This is why the gold is coming to America.”

Armstrong also contends you can forget about predictions of the US dollar collapsing anytime soon - it won’t. Armstrong says, “The Euro will become extinct.” Armstrong also predicts, “I published what the computer “Socrates” put out on Ukraine. It’s a flatline, and I have never seen that on any other country. It’s a flatline. It’s going dead. That’s it.”

Reference:
Greg Hunter (March 1, 2025) - Interview with Martin Armstrong: Europe is Falling and Needs War with Russia.

 

Martin Armstrong (March 4, 2025): » We must get out of NATO. «

 

 The Forecaster – The Story of Martin Armstrong. (documentary, 2014)

Outlook for 2025: Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction | Martin Armstrong

The year 2025 marks a critical turning point, with a global economic crisis on the horizon. Our computer models predict a major downturn, particularly in Europe, and a prolonged US recession extending into 2028. This crisis stems from long-term mismanagement by central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which kept interest rates too low for too long, forcing banks to hold risky government debt. While analysts focus on short-term rates, the Fed has little control over long-term rates, which continue to rise despite rate cuts. Tensions in Europe, including the threat of World War III, are exacerbating this issue and pushing rates even higher.

» While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. «

The rise in long-term rates reflects a loss of confidence in government debt. For instance, corporate bonds in France are now offering better returns than government bonds, and even Greece's debt is becoming more attractive. This points to systemic weaknesses within European governments. Meanwhile, the US faces its own dilemma: raising rates to combat inflation only makes its national debt more expensive. As the world's largest borrower, higher rates simply add to the debt burden rather than reducing spending. This crisis underscores the failure of Keynesian economics, which Paul Volcker acknowledged in 1979. Today, the US government borrows far more than in the past, and raising interest rates does little to curb spending—it only adds to the debt.

The financial system is now in deep trouble, and the average person will bear the consequences. Europe is headed for a depression, and the US is facing a severe recession. Unemployment will rise, wages will shrink, and basic goods will become more expensive. The gap between the rich and poor will widen, and financial instability will increase. A sovereign debt default in Europe by 2025 is likely to trigger a broader collapse, with massive financial instability by 2026-2027. Many banks and pension funds are heavily invested in government debt, and a default could lead to the disintegration of European financial systems. Insiders are very much aware of the crisis and fear that public panic could worsen the situation, potentially triggering bank runs. While not all banks are equally at risk, poor management and political interference in banking have worsened the problem. The Federal Reserve, designed to act as a backstop for failing banks, may be overwhelmed by the scale of the crisis.

 

The impact on ordinary Americans will be severe, with rising unemployment, shrinking wages, and higher living costs. While financial elites are aware of the looming collapse, everyday people will feel its full force. The US government’s failure to roll over its debt could spark a chain reaction, causing widespread bank failures. The interconnectedness of the banking system means one collapse could trigger a broader financial breakdown. Cash will become essential, as digital transactions and credit systems may fail, as seen in previous disruptions like the Canadian trucker protests.

I strongly recommend preparing for this crisis by having physical cash and at least two years' worth of food stored. The collapse of the financial system will lead to widespread losses in banks and pension funds, and the government and central banks will be unable to protect everyone. Those who are unprepared will suffer the most.

 November 2024: A Norwegian task force has advised against the immediate adoption of a central 

bank digital currency, while South Korea has launched a CBDC pilot with seven major banks.

As the debt crisis worsens, geopolitical instability will exacerbate inflation and push capital into the US as a safe haven. The dollar will strengthen, and sectors like gold, food, and bonds will see increased investment. However, emerging markets with high foreign-denominated debt, such as Brazil, will be particularly vulnerable to financial crises.

I also caution against the growing threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which would grant governments unprecedented control over personal finances. The rise of gold as a long-term safe haven, coupled with rising long-term interest rates, will create significant risks for those holding variable-rate debt. People should prepare by securing tangible assets like cash, food, and gold, and locking in fixed-rate debt where possible. The coming crisis is inevitable, and those who prepare will have the best chance of weathering the storm.

Reference:
Martin Armstrong (December 21, 2024) - Depression, Debt, Default & Destruction in 2025. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

Lu QiYuan (December 8, 2024) - Scott Bessent's Covert MAGA Strategy for Trump 2.0.  

 Martin Armstrong (June 21, 2024) - Final Days of the Empire. (video)

L. David Linsky (2023) - War and or Revolution in 2026. The 84 Year War Cycle.

Bojan S. Dimitrijević et al. (2016) - Sunspots and Stock Markets: Evidence of their Interdependence in Transition Countries.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2012) - Sunspots, Unemployment, and Recessions: Can the Solar Activity Cycle shape the Business Cycle?

BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will | Martin Armstrong

The BRICS currency was created for geopolitical reasons when the neocons transformed the SWIFT system into an economic weapon and even threatened China with the same fate if they supported Russia. Once this occurred, the neocons turned the entire world’s monetary system into a weapon of war. This is why we have BRICS; it had nothing to do with killing the dollar or backing their currency with gold.

 » All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. Just because a currency is

backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. «

Many hoped for an official announcement regarding a gold-backed currency, which failed to materialize. A gold-backed currency would be massively deflationary. The money supply could not expand with the population or in times of need without new discoveries. Just because a currency is backed by gold does not eliminate inflation or deflation. The gold discoveries of the 19th century in California, Alaska, and Australia caused significant economic upheaval, followed by wars. The fact that gold was the currency did not prevent inflation.

Spain defaulted seven times. The gold and silver they brought back from the New World led to massive inflation in Europe. Those who preach that a gold standard is the solution lack an understanding of history. They blame “fiat currency,” as if eliminating it will solve all problems. There were booms and busts throughout ancient times long before paper money existed. All currency is fiat, even when it is gold. I have shown that Southern India routinely imitated Roman gold coins because they held a premium over gold—this is fiat. Northern India and the Kushan Empire issued their own coinage primarily because they traded more with China. Southern India used imitation Roman gold coins for about 250 years, confirming that the Roman coinage was worth more than its metal content.

 

 » The purchasing power of gold fluctuated at all times. The value of a currency is determined 

by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. «

Similar claims were made about the Euro, which also did not work out well. Why? The value of a currency is determined by the productive capacity of its people, not by its gold reserves. Japan and Germany lost the war yet rose to the top of the economic hierarchy because their populations were productive. The United States has the largest consumer-based economy, which means that everyone needs to sell their products here, requiring transactions in dollars. The US is also strong militarily, which further supports the currency's foundation.

It is time to abandon these outdated economic theories, remnants from the 18th and 19th centuries. The economy has evolved since then. The neocons are destroying the dollar and undermining the future of the United States. When we lose another one of their endless wars, financial capital will shift from New York to Beijing. Just as war diminished Britain, so will it diminish the dollar and the United States.

Quoted from:
Martin Armstrong (October 29, 2024) -  BRICS Will Not Kill the Dollar—War Will.

Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025 | Sergey Tarassov

 » DJIA correction begun, and the 41 Month Kitchin Cycle suggests a decline until the end of 2025. «  
 —  Sergey Tarassov, August 5, 2024.

 

» Multiyear High in the DJIA between June and October 2024, i.e. sometime
between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle.  «    
 —  Sergey Tarassov, June 25, 2024.

Reference:
Sergey Tarassov (August 5, 2024) - Tune Up 41 Month Kitchin Cycle for DJIA. (video)
Sergey Tarassov (June 25, 2024) - Review of Forecasts for DJIA, Gold, Bitcoin, IOC and Mexican Peso. (video)

 2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table: » Major Panic - CRASH! «

 

Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.

—  Martin Armstrong, June 14, 2024.

 

The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession | Martin Armstrong

This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. [...] There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents.

 

 » The United States will most likely split into three regional governments. «

 

[...] Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. [...] Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

 » No question that post-election violence will be extreme. «

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!! There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.  

 

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (August 30, 2024) - Can the Dollar Survive a Civil War?

 

See also:
The Alex Jones Show (August 30, 2024) - Martin Armstrong Warns 2024 Will
Probably Be The Last U.S. Election. (video)

 

» The most important historical events occur in the 3-year period around sunspot maximums. «
Alexander Chizhevsky — 1924

» The most important European revolutions of the XIX and XX century overlapped closely
with the sunspot maximums. «
Mikhail Gorbanev — 2016

Migrant Gangs Taking Control of US Cities. — August 30, 2024

See also:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 6, 2024) - The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle.

L. David Linsky (October 24, 2023) - War and Regime Change soon in the US.

Mikhail Gorbanev (2016) - Solar Activity and Economic Recessions.

 Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.

Maurice Cotterell (2001) - Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations.

Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process.