Saturday, August 31, 2024

S&P 500 Uptrend May Extend to 5,800 Into Equinox | Robert Miner

Daily S&P 500 data from the July high shows an an A-B-C correction into August 13. Since then, the S&P 500 has continued upward and sideways, reaching a new high last Friday, August 30. With daily momentum showing a bull reversal, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish for the next few days and likely exceed the July high within the next week or two. The daily closing level of 5,798 is a key benchmark to watch.
 
 
Key dates to monitor include the week ending September 20, which aligns with the next Fed announcement and the fall equinox on September 22. Historically, reversals often occur near the fall equinox. If the S&P 500 remains sideways or rises into this period, it could signal the completion of the current upward trend and the onset of a counter-trend move.

 
For the next three weeks, the S&P 500 should target the range of 5,689 to 5,783 based on weekly closing data. Monitoring this range is essential. A weekly close within this range by the week ending September 20 may indicate a potential weekly high. Weekly momentum indicators suggest that the S&P 500 is likely to continue its upward trend for another two to three weeks.
 
 
See also:

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S&P 500 Soared 7% in Summer, Shifts Weakness to October | Wayne Whaley

For this study, summer is defined as the three months from June to August. Historically, the S&P 500 index tends to show modest performance during the summer, with an average gain of 1.43% since 1950 over these three months. In 2024, however, the S&P 500 achieved an impressive 7.03% gain during the summer, with individual gains of 3.5% in June, 1.1% in July, and 2.3% in August.

 
The weakest seasonal period of the year historically occurs in the second half of September. However, strong summers often push much of the traditional September weakness into October, specifically from October 18th to October 28th. During this period in the years with a summer gain of over 5%, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 2.53%, with a performance record of 4 gains and 19 losses.

This period is followed by one of the strongest periods of the year, from October 28th to November 5th. In years with a summer gain of over 5%, this timeframe has averaged a gain of 2.61%, with a performance record of 21 gains and 1 loss.

 
4-Year Presidential Election Cycle 1949-2020 vs 2021-2024
— Jeff Hirsch, August 19, 2024
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Friday, August 30, 2024

The US Is Now Ready for Violence, Civil War & Secession | Martin Armstrong

This will probably be the last election in the United States, for we will most likely split into three regional governments. [...] There is no question that post-election violence will be extreme. Whenever you have this winner-takes-all system and political corruption unfolds, the LEFT is not seeking to govern the nation; they are seeking to oppress all opponents.
 
 » The United States will most likely split into three regional governments. «
 
[...] Democracies are supposed to be where people have the right to vote. The Democrats were denied the right even to select their candidate. This is tyranny, for Kamala was merely installed. [...] Typically, governments go into civil wars when there is a conflict that is culturally/ethnically, religiously, or racially driven, and we are now checking that box and just waiting for the election. We will face a rigged and contested election that neither side will accept. When there is no confidence in the government anymore, the ONLY resolution is always violence. History confirms this prognostication. How can there be such fantastic polls for Kamala, who never won a single delegate during the 2020 primary, and we look at the only real independent poll organization that shows confidence in Congress down to 7%?

 » No question that post-election violence will be extreme. «

It does not matter who wins. This election will NEVER be accepted, and it certainly will NOT unify the country. The Democratic Convention threw Trump’s name out 329 times. It was just a hate fest. That will ensure violence. The LEFT will never accept a Trump victory – NO WAY!!!!! There is no belief that this election will be free and fair. The United States has declined into this dangerous characteristic that warns the country is far too divided to stand. I am concerned that the dollar may decline FOR THIS REASON. I want to think that reform is possible. Unfortunately, history tells us that when an empire, nation, country, or city-state is this divided, REFORM becomes possible only AFTER violence.  
 
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Re-Accumulation and Re-Distribution Range Patterns | Richard D. Wyckoff

The Re-Accumulation process is exactly identical to the Accumulation process. The only difference between the two is the way the structure begins to develop. While the Accumulation range begins by stopping a bearish movement, the Re-Accumulation range begins after the stop of an upward movement. Re-accumulation and re-distribution generally unfold in four distinct continuation range patterns.
 
 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour bars - August 15-30, 2024) — Distribution or Re-Accumulation?
Distribution Schematic #3 in Phase C or Re-Accumulation with Spring Action in Phase D ?
 
 
 The Eternal Recurrence of the Same.
 
   The 4 Phases of Richard D. Wyckoff's Market Cycle:
(1.) Accumulation, (2.) Mark Up, (3.) Distribution, (4.) Mark Down.
To put it another way: A Re-Accumulation occurs during a longer-term up trend, which will continue in the future. The main street is finally on the right side as well. Inside a Wyckoff Re-Accumulation schematic, buyers are closing parts of their long positions and sellers are joining the market. With the incoming selling positions, market makers can fill new long positions again.

 4 Types of Re-Accumulation Ranges a.k.a. Continuation Patterns a.k.a. Trend Continuation:
(1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline.
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure.

The 4 Re-Distribution types are simply the opposite (lower 4 schematics):
(1.) Re-Distribution after a Rally.
(2.) Re-Distribution with Spring Action.
(3.) Re-Distribution after a Shakeout.
(4.) Re-Distribution with a Declining Structure.

 Examples of different types of Re-Accumulation Patterns in the Apple (AAPL) Weekly Chart.
 
The events and phases are still the same (see the Accumulation and Distributions Schematics - the last 4 charts). Only the beginning of the Re-Accumulation cycle is different and equals the start of a distribution cycle. Take a look at the Wyckoff distribution schematics below for the occurring events. The main events that differ from an accumulation or distribution cycle are the occurrences of the Creek. The Creek is a small trend over time and can equal a smaller consolidation. The Creek builds liquidity on both sides of the market and misleads market participants. The Jump Across the Creek (JAC) is the event that causes the SoS. The Jump Across the Creek does take out previous resistance lines with a strong up move. The Jump Across the Creek can also occur inside the trading range of the accumulation. The Creek can be the horizontal resistance defined by Phases A and B or an internal trend line that formed inside Phase B.
  • After the spring and test events, there is a bullish price move with momentum. This is called the Jump Across the Creek. Price continues with a bullish Phase E.
  • Usually, any shakeout and/or decline action before Re-Accumulation will have a local smaller distribution pattern (cause and effect).
  • The Initial Shakeout/Decline is less pronounced during Re-Accumulation than before Accumulation.
  • Volume: Re-Accumulation usually has less supply than Accumulation.
  • The maximum swing of trading range (highest to lowest point): Re-Accumulation trading range is usually tighter compared with an Accumulation trading range.
 (1.) Re-Accumulation after a Decline
 
  • Weakest among the Re-Accumulation types.
  • Decline usually starts from a small local distribution pattern.
  • It can have different variations of the trading range (see the structure of the next 3 formations).
(2.) Re-Accumulation with Spring Action
 
  • Flat or sloping down formation.
  • It can potentially have a few lower lows with a spring being the lowest point of the trading range.
  • Leading stocks can exhibit short-term weakness after strength in this formation.
(3.) Re-Accumulation after a Shakeout
 
  • Absorption of supply happens in the trading range without violation of support.
  • Usually and depending on a position of the market, this pattern exhibits strength.
(4.) Re-Accumulation with an Uprising Structure 
 
  • Re-Accumulation with an Uprise is the strongest Re-Accumulation type.
  • This structure will exhibit higher highs / higher lows.
  • Sometimes can be confused with a topping trading range (Distribution).
 
 
 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases A and B.

 Accumulation Schematic #1: Phases C, D and E.
 
 Distribution Schematic #3: Phases A, B, C, D and E = the Inversion of the  Accumulation Schematic #1
 
The Re-Distribution occurs inside a markdown cycle and stops a down-trend for a longer period. After bigger price moves even Main Street joins the trend. Now it is time for the market makers to bring the price into a consolidation phase to scare sellers and bring in new buyers. That ensures new liquidity for the institution’s to place new short orders. The start of a Wyckoff Re-Distribution schematic is the same as an Accumulation cycle. A Creek inside the trading range creates liquidity on both sides of the market, which gets taken by a UTAD. Many people will see this as a break-out to join bullish price action, but don’t get fooled. With a Jump across the Creek, the price is not only returning into the trading range but going to continue the downtrend from before.
 
 
  Distribution Schematic #2: Phases A and B.
 
 Distribution Schematic #2: Phases C, D and E.
 
Many believe that simply labeling the events is sufficient for detecting Wyckoff cycles. Don't forget that a supposed Distribution can become a Re-Accumulation or an Accumulation a Re-Distribution. Therefore, it is essential to presuppose a fundamental market analysis and confirm a Wyckoff cycle with COT data, Seasonality, or other longer-term confirmations. Don't make the mistake of looking for Accumulations and Distributions in lower time frames. It is easy to draw a supposed accumulation on a 5-minute chart, but a real Accumulation takes place in higher time frames. Since a Wyckoff cycle takes time to unfold, wait for the events to occur and be fully validated. Otherwise, one quickly get s distracted by the noise within the actual moves and makes bad trading decisions in the worst case. 
 
  
Reference:
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The Wang Yi - Jake Sullivan Talks in Full


 » For the United States, the big cycles look mostly unfavorable. «
Ray Dalio's “Power Index” for great powers and empires over time.
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Thursday, August 29, 2024

Decoding S&P 500 Seasonality | Martin Biber

The following chart shows three different calculations of the S&P 500's seasonality [...] one commonality is the V-shape into early October and out of it. That is the reason why everyone is talking about the weakness in September.


The following chart shows the seasonality of all the years since 1950. The seasonality only touches the low of the chart once, which means that over all those years, the market has always had one weakness at the same time. The low happens in late September, followed by a substantial rally until January. The seasonality shows some weakness into March, followed by a reaction that ends at the beginning of May. After that, the seasonality, calculated without a trend component in this chart, goes down until late September. This is why we often say, “Sell in May and go away.”

 
The red line on the following chart also shows seasonality, but only the last ten years were used to calculate the results. The behavior around the seasonal low in October looks similar to the seasonality in all years. I have, however, a second low in the middle of March and a clear top in mid-July. This top is only a few days after the one we experienced this year. Interestingly, the saying “Sell in May and go away” wasn’t good advice over the last ten years, as we would have missed the rallies between March and mid-July.

 
The following chart compares the blue seasonality with the seasonality of the years ending with 4 (2014, 2004, etc.). The low occurs in early October, compared to the two previous seasonalities, which have the seasonal low at the end of September. The rally only lasts until early November. But there is a second rally immediately afterward, which lasts until late January.

 
Summary:
While all seasonalities point to a weak September and a crucial low late in September, the seasonality of the years ending in 4 lets us assume that the seasonal low could occur one or two weeks later than usual. Anyway, no other date in a year is statistically as significant for the S&P 500 as everyone knows and is waiting for the late September or early October low.

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Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Cosmic Cluster Days | September 2024

Cosmic Cluster Day  |   Composite Line  |  Cosmic Noise Channel
○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon

Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets have no consistent fixed polarity nor directional bias. Nonetheless, swing directions, highs and lows  — also inside of the 'noise channel'  — may correlate or coincide with financial market directions and reversals. Upcoming CCDs: 
 
Aug 29 (Thu)
Sep 05 (Thu)
Sep 07 (Sat)
Sep 08 (Sun)
Sep 12 (Thu)
Sep 13 (Fri)
Sep 14 (Sat)
Sep 15 (Sun)
Sep 20 (Fri)
Sep 22 (Sun)
Oct 23 (Wed)
 
Earlier CCDs HERE
 
More background information on the original author, the concept and calculation of CCDs  HERE.
 
 
2024 08 10 (Sat) = SUN @ 18 LEO = 138 degrees = positive = high
2024 09 02 (Mon) = SUN @ 10 VIR = 160 degrees = negative = low
2024 09 04 (Wed) = SUN @ 12 VIR = 162 degrees = positive = high
2024 09 05 (Thu) = SUN @ 13 VIR = 163 degrees = negative = low
2024 09 20 (Fri) = SUN @ 28 VIR = 178 degrees = positive = high
2024 09 24 (Tue) = SUN @ 2 LIB = 182 degrees = negative = low
2024 10 07 (Mon) = SUN @ 14 LIB = 194 degrees = negative = low

Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer during September 2024:
 
2024 Aug 29 (Thu) = High
2024 Sep 07 (Sat) = Low
2024 Sep 14 (Sat) = High
2024 Sep 19 (Thu) = Low
2024 Sep 27 (Fri) = High
2024 Oct 01 (Tue) = Low
 
 
The SoLunar Rhythm in September 2024:
September 2 (Mon) 
September 7 (Sat)
September 11 (Wed)
September 13 (Fri)
September 17 (Tue)
September 21 (Sat)
September 24 (Tue)
September 28 (Sat)

See also:
Martin Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Panic Cycles Week July 15 - 19 & Week September 9 - 13.
Sergey Tarassov (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 & 42 Month Cycles.
 
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Sunday, August 25, 2024

Telegram Founder Pavel Durov Arrested In France | Laura Ruggeri

I see only two possible outcomes after Durov's Arrest: Either Durov cooperates with EU/NATO or the platform will be banned altogether. When you are facing a very lengthy sentence for crimes that any user of your platform could have committed (the list is endless), the possibility that Durov will cave in is almost a certainty. 
 
 France decided to prescribe the Assange treatment to Durov.

Under the Orwellian Digital Services Act adopted by the EU in 2022, key requirements include disclosing to regulators how the platform  algorithms work, removing content deemed illegal or any content that EU-funded "fact-checkers" deem inappropriate. Think of what falls foul of  Facebook "community rules" and you get a pretty good idea of what kind of content will be censored. Of course Durov will have to provide a backdoor and encryption keys to Western intelligence services and the police.

 
oooo0oooo 

Mike Benz joins Tucker Carlson and breaks down everything about the US Deep State’s
involvement in Telegram, and why they arrested Pavel Durov. Watch the full conversation HERE.
 
French authorities accuse Durov, who holds citizenships in Russia, France, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and the U.A.E., of complicity in drug trafficking, crimes against children and fraud due to the lack of moderation on his Telegram messenger platform. He could face up to 20 years in prison on all those charges, said Alain Duflot, a French specialist in international law and lecturer at the University of Lyon. Durov received French citizenship in 2021 and will stand trial as a French citizen, French TF1 TV reports. Analysts believe France may use Durov's trial to impose EU sanctions against Telegram, and doubt the possibility of Durov being released either before his trial on bail or after the trial. As he is a French citizen, his extradition to Russia or participation in a prisoner swap deal is reportedly impossible, despite the fact that he also has Russian citizenship.
 
TikTok. Telegram. X. Rumble.
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Friday, August 23, 2024

The Central Bank of Libya under Muammar al-Gaddafi | Stephen M. Goodson

From 1551 to 1911 Libya was ruled by the Ottoman Empire, by Italy from 1911 to 1943 and from 1943 to 1951 was under the military suzerainty of Britain and France. The Central Bank of Libya was founded in 1956 and was run as a typical central bank until the bloodless coup d’etat of 1 September 1969. 
 
Mu’ammar Qathafi - A strict disciple of the Holy Q’uran, who abolished all forms of usury
and used the Central Bank of Libya for the sole benefit of the Libyan people.

Oil of an exceptionally high quality was discovered in 1959. However, King Idris al Mahdi as-Sanusi failed to capitalise on this bonanza or use it for the benefit of his people, and the bulk of the oil profits were siphoned into the coffers of the oil companies. On assuming power in 1969 Mu’ammar Muhammad al-Qathafi took control of most of the economic activities in the country, including the central bank, which for all practical purposes was run as a state bank. It operated as a banker of the local bankers and foreign bankers were not permitted to operate. Financing of government infrastructure did not atract riba (interest) and Libya had no national debt and no foreign debt. Its foreign exchange reserves exceeded $54 billion, which may be compared to reserves of developed countries such as the United Kingdom and Canada, which in 2010 were $50 billion and $40 billion respectively. GDP growth during the period 2000-10 was 4.32% per annum and the official figure for inflation was -0.27%.

 
Mass manifestation in support of Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli,  July 1, 2011.

Colonel Qathafi was described by the mainstream media as being a “terrible dictator and a blood-sucking monster”, but the reality was that with the exception of the city of Benghazi and its environs, he had the support of 90% of the population. The following benefits provided by Qathafi explain why he was so popular:

■   Free education. Free electricity. Free health care. Free housing (There were no mortgages).
■   Students were paid the average salary for which subject they were studying.
■   Students studying overseas were provided with accommodation, an automobile and €2,500 per annum.
■   Newly-wed couples received a gift of 60,000 dinar ($50,000) from government.
■   Automobiles were sold at factory cost free of interest.
■   Private loans were provided free of interest.
■   Bread cost 15 US cents per loaf. Gasoline cost 12 US cents per litre.
■   Portion of profits from sale of oil was paid directly into bank accounts of citizens.
■   Farmers received free land, seeds and animals.
■   Full employment with those temporarily unemployed paid a full salary as if employed.

Qathafi’s Jamahariya “state of the masses” ensured that the wealth of this country of 5.79 million inhabitants was fairly distributed to all of its people. Beggars and homeless vagrants did not exist, while life expectancy at 75 years was the highest in Africa and 10% above the world average. The literacy rate was 82%. Regarding human rights Libya stood at 61 in the International Incarceration Index. The lower the rating, the lower the standing. The no.1 spot is currently occupied by the United States. Another major achievement, which Qathafi initiated was the conversion of the Nubian Sandstone Fossil Aquifer System into the Great Man-Made River, which supplies 6,500,000m³ of fresh water daily to the cities of Tripoli, Sirte and Benghazi. The extracted water is ten times cheaper than desalinated water. The total cost of the project, estimated at $25 billion was financed without a single foreign loan.
 
 
Although the central banks of Belarus, Burma, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, North Sudan and Syria do not fall under the direct control of the Rothschild banking syndicate, Libya had the only central bank run on genuine state banking lines, which exhibited the classic symptoms of full employment, zero inflation and a modern day workers’ paradise. The question arises as to why NATO intervened on the pretext of fabricated human rights abuses, the so called responsibility to protect. Since 1971 when the United States abandoned the gold exchange standard for the petrodollar with the connivance of Saudi Arabia, any attempt to displace the United States dollar as the premier reserve currency has been blocked and opposed with violence.
 
 Ezra Pound - 1943.
 
In November 2000 Saddam Hussein of Iraq decreed that all oil payments would in future be made in euros, as he did not wish to deal “in the currency of the enemy”. As has already been proven, the possession of weapons of mass destruction pretext was a deliberately concocted hoax and it was this currency decision, which cost Saddam Hussein his life and the destruction of his country. 
 
True, whether the quote is authentic or not.

In similar circumstances Qathafi announced in 2010 the creation of the gold dinar as a replacement for the settlement of all foreign transactions in a proposed region of over 200 million people. Libya at that time possessed 144 tons of gold. What was intended was not a return to the gold standard per se, but a new unit of account with oil exports and other resources being paid for in gold dinars. Qathafi crossed a red line and paid the ultimate price [he was assassinated by Western invasion forces in Sirte on October 20, 2011].

 The Truth About Libya - Stephen Mitford Goodson, 2011.

Since 2007 Iran has stipulated that payments be made in euro currency. On 17 February 2008 the Iranian Oil Bourse for trading in petroleum, petrochemicals and gas using primarily the euro, Iranian rial and a basket of non-US currencies was established. The first oil shipments under the new system were sold through this market in July 2011. This event must be deemed as one of the prime causes for the constant Israeli and American threats to annihilate Iran.

Quoted from:

 
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