July 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Lively trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital.

Typical Post-Election Year July: Early Strength, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed.

This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat final third. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a modestly bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period with some modest weakness just ahead of Independence Day.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2025)  - Typical July Trading: Strength Early, Beyond Mid-Month Mixed. 

 

Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac are showing that since 1950, July has been the strongest month for both the DJIA and the S&P 500 in post-election years. Specifically, the DJIA has averaged a 2.1% gain, ranking first among months, with 15 positive years and only 3 negative years. The S&P 500 mirrors this, averaging a 2.2% gain, also ranking first, with 12 positive and 6 negative years. 

 

This covers 19 presidential election cycles from 1952 to 2020, providing a robust dataset spanning post-war booms, recessions, and technological shifts. A notable statistic is the 10-year streak of positive July returns for both indices from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a recent intensification of this seasonal pattern. The table below summarizes the performance:  

 

2025: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023.

 

S&P 500 Average Annual Cycle (2014-2024). 

 

% of Months in Which SPY Closed higher Than It Opened From 2015 to 2024. 

 

BraVoCycles (June 25, 2025)  - Long-term SPX Elliott Wave count.

 

See also:

Cory Mitchell (May 30, 2025)  - Best and Worst Months for the Stock Market – Seasonal Patterns.
Paul Ciana (May 17, 2025)  - S&P 500 on Track for Strongest May-to-July Gains in Years.

TPR (February 4, 2025)  - The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics. 

Hurst Cycles Timing & Straddled Troughs in the S&P 500 | David Hickson

The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.

 

The S&P 500 is expected to form an 80-day cycle trough around mid-June 2025, potentially straddled, 
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.

 

If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
 

 A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter 
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).

The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.

Reference:
David Hickson (June 16, 2025)  - Straddled Troughs - What You Need to Know. (video) 

 

Philip Hopf: Elliott Wave projections for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Tom Pizzuti, June 17, 2025 (Tue): It doesn’t look like an impulse up from the June 12th low. I favor a break
under 6052.00 at some point today in an effort to push down to at least 5993.00 and preferably lower.  

Jeff Hirsch, June 17, 2025: "Get Ready for NASDAQ’s Christmas in July Mid-Year Rally."

 

See also:

David Hickson (May 19, 2025)  - Bullish Hurst Cycle Targets for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin. 

Krasi (June 16, 2025)  - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Analysis.

June 2025 Post-Election Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

In post-election years since 1950, early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000, while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled.  

 

 Typical June Pattern of the S&P 500 in a Post-Election Year:

Early Strength: Starts with a slight uptrend, weaker than NASDAQ (2.5%) or Russell 2000. 

Mid-Month Dip: Drops around days 10-15 due to profit-taking or uncertainty. 

Late-Month Recovery: Rallies late June to a neutral or positive close, less than small-cap/tech gains.

 

So far in June 2025, Russell 2000 ($IWM) has gained 3.8% and NASDAQ ($QQQ) 2.5%, setting the stage for a typical brisk mid-month drop followed by a month-end rally, often led by technology and small caps.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 10, 2025) - Small Caps Rocking Typical Post-Election June.

 

 S&P 500 Post-Election Year Seasonal Pattern 1949-2023.

S&P 500: More Good News for Bulls | Ryan Detrick

On average, it is 18.7% higher a year later, 20 out of 20 times since 1976:

Performance of S&P 500 after more than 58% of components reach new 20-day highs.

When more than 58% of S&P 500 components hit a 20-day high, the index has historically risen by an average of 18.7% over the next 12 months, with a 100% success rate across 20 instances since 1976. Gains are less pronounced but still positive in the short term, averaging 1.7% (1 month), 5.6% (3 months), and 9.7% (6 months), with positive returns 80-85% of the time. The latest May 14, 2025, event (68% of components at a 20-day high) aligns with this historical pattern, suggesting a high probability of gains by May 14, 2026.

 

Historical May performance in post-election years (1950-2021) shows a typical pattern of strong gains in the first 6 trading days (average >1%), followed by a dip from days 6-9, and a rally through month-end. This contrasts with 2025 trends for major indices such as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow, and Russell 2000. By mid-May, all indices had broken above their 200-day moving averages.

 

Can we get a pullback? 24% of NASDAQ 100 stocks are overbought with an RSI above 70, a threshold indicating potential price corrections; historically, since 2020, this condition has led to a 1-week pullback 55% of the time, with an average decline of 0.71%.

 

The VIX has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, a rare streak historically linked to potential stock market pullbacks, as shown in the data from 1992 to 2024, where the S&P 500 averaged a -0.63% return one week later in similar scenarios. The S&P 500 tends to face short-term corrections, with historical data indicating negative returns in the following 1 to 4 days 63-78% of the time, suggesting a volatility spike may be imminent.

 

 

It wasn't long ago people were talking about the Death Cross in the SPX. Back then we pointed out that the last time the death cross occurred (2022), markets reversed aggressively and managed to overshoot the 200 day by around 3.5%. A similar overshoot now would take us to around 6k.

 

 

The dominant 82-day cycle suggests a peak in the ES around June 10, followed by a decline into early August. 

 

See also:

Namzes (December 27, 2024) - 2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy.

April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

 Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional

minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

 

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.

 

Other Bullish Scenarios:

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

Bearish Scenarios:

 

 Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom around FOMC on April 9 (Wed)(± 1 TD).

 

 

 FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 Real Values, suggesting risk as of late March 2025. 

 

 

Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.

Trigger Trades, March 27, 2025.

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle. 

TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

 

The Kondratieff Cycle and Its Subdivisions.

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.