Monday, January 29, 2024

S&P 500 at 5,000 by first Week of February | Allen Reminick

The S&P 500 has rallied from January 18 (Thu) to January 27 (Fri), and there is a high probability the index will see 5,000 by the first week of February. We call for a high around February 1 (Thu) and another high potentially on February 9 (Fri) before a decline until February 26 or 28 (Mon or Wed). 
 

After that we are expecting continued rally and much higher prices until April. If 4,908 is broken above for a few days and closed above on the cash, the S&P 500 is very strong. If there's going to be a big decline this year, it would start in April or May and go down into July or August followed by a resumption of the rally till year end into January of 2025. At least the 60 year cycle goes up into the late part of 2025. 
 

Reference:
 
Posted by at
Labels: ,

Expelling the US from the United Nations | Shahid Bolsen

America's impunity has to end. It's gone on for way too long. The United States has made a complete, malicious mockery of even the concept of international law, of human rights, of peace, stability and security. It's a country that acts in the world like a serial killer. Everywhere they go, they leave bodies. 
 
  The US sabotaging the UN Security Council once again:
US Ambassador Alternate Representative of the US for Special Political Affairs in the United Nations Robert A. Wood vetoing a United Nations Security Council resolution on ceasefire in Gaza, at UN headquarters in New York on December 8, 2023.

Everything they touch, they break. Why the US should be in the United Nations? It's an insult to the whole planet to have America sitting in the UN, much less sitting on the Security Council. The US is the greatest threat to global security and they dominate the Security Council. It's time for the United Nations to invoke Article 6 and expel the US. We all know that the United States has never treated the UN as if they're just a member. The United Nations, as long as the US is in there, is just like a meeting room where all of the countries in the world go to get their orders from the boss. They even make a mockery of the name United Nations because it doesn't matter how united the nations of the world may be. They've been united for the last 50 years on the issue of Palestine and it didn't matter. The US will overrule them every time. The United Nations is just a platform for American exceptionalism and rejectionism. 
 
United Nations Charter, Article 6:
» A Member of the United Nations which has persistently violated the Principles contained in the present Charter 
may be expelled from the Organization by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council. «
 
As long as the United Nations allows this and does not invoke Article 6 and expel the United States, every country in the world is just participating in some sort of ritual humiliation and doing nothing but offer tribute to the very country that consistently and insistently does all of the crimes that the UN was created supposedly to prevent from being done. It's like a court where the criminal who's supposed to be on trial sits in the judge's bench. It offends every principle that the United Nations claims to stand for. It's not like they don't have the protocols. They have the protocols and they have the mechanisms to do something about it and to put it to an end. And that's exactly what they need to do and they need to do it now. This is the only way to end this terrible cycle of violence once and for all.

 

 Incomplete statistics showed that from the end of World War II to 2001, among the 248 armed conflicts
that occurred in 153 regions of the world, 201 were initiated by the United States.
 

 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Friday, January 26, 2024

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for February 2024 | Jeff Hirsch


Typical February Performance: Weakness After Mid-Month Peak - After a strong opening day, strength has tended to fade until around the seventh trading day. From there until around the 12-trading day all five indexes have historically enjoyed gains. But those gains have not held until the end of February with a peak occurring around mid-month. By the end of February, only NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have remained slightly positive while DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 turn negative.

 
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , ,

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Carl Schmitt's Land and Sea │ Alexander Dugin

In 1942, Schmitt published the most important work, Land and Sea. Together with the later text Planetary Tension between the East and the West and the Confrontation of the Land and the Sea, this constitutes the most important document of geopolitical science. 
 
The destruction of Leviathan by Gustave Doré, 1865.
 » World history is a history of the battle of sea powers against land powers
and of land powers against sea powers. «
Carl Schmitt, 1942.

The meaning of opposing land and sea in Schmitt comes down to the fact that we are talking about two completely different, irreducible and hostile civilizations, and not about variants of a single civilization complex. This division almost exactly coincides with the picture drawn by Mackinder, but Schmitt gives its main elements of thalassocracy (sea forces) and tellurocracy (land forces) an in-depth philosophical interpretation related to basic legal and ethical systems. It is curious that Schmitt uses the name Behemoth for land forces, and Leviathan for forces of the sea, as a reminder of two Old Testament monsters, one of which embodies all land creatures, and the other all creatures of water, the sea.
 
 » The holy king of Gods and men I call, celestial law  (Nomos) the righteous seal of all. «
Orphic Hymns to Nomos 63 (2nd or 3rd century AD).

The Nomos of the Earth exists without alternative for most of human history. All varieties of this Nomos are characterized by the presence of a strict and stable legalizing (and ethical) form, which reflects the immobility and fixity of the land, the Earth. This connection with the Earth, the space which is easily amenable to structuralization (fixed borders, constancy of communication paths, invariable geographical and relief features), gives rise to essential conservatism in the social, cultural and technical spheres. The totality of the Earth’s Nomos constitutes what is commonly called the history of the traditional society. 
 
In such a situation, the water and the sea are only peripheral civilizational phenomena, without intruding on the ethical sphere (or intruding sporadically). Only with the discovery of the World Ocean at the end of the 16th century does the situation change radically. Mankind (and first of all, the island of England) begins to get used to the marine existence, begins to realize itself as an Island in the middle of the waters, a Ship. But the water area is very different from the land. It is impermanent, hostile, alienated, subject to constant change. The paths are not fixed in it, the differences in orientations are not obvious. The Nomos of the Sea entails a global transformation of consciousness. Social, legal, and ethical standards are becoming fluid. A new civilization is born. Schmitt believes that the New Time and the technical breakthrough that opened the era of industrialization owe their existence to the geopolitical phenomenon of the transition of mankind to the Nomos of the Sea. Thus, the geopolitical confrontation of the Anglo-Saxon world of the external crescent acquires a sociopolitical definition from Schmitt: 
 
» The Nomos of the Sea is a reality hostile to traditional society. « 
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Defeat of the West │ Emmanuel Todd

Emmanuel Todd, historian, demographer, anthropologist, sociologist and political analyst, is part of a dying breed: one of the very few remaining exponents of old school French intelligentzia. Todd was the first Western intellectual, already in 1976, to have predicted the fall of the USSR in his book La Chute Finale (The Final Fall), with his research based on Soviet infant mortality rates [...] The first nugget concerning his latest book, La Défaite de l’Occident (The Defeat of the West) is the minor miracle of actually being published last week in France, right within the NATO sphere: a hand grenade of a book, by an independent thinker, based on facts and verified data, blowing up the whole Russophobia edifice erected around the 'aggression' by 'Tsar' Putin.
 
Behemoth, the land monster (land forces), and Leviathan, the sea monster (sea forces), killing each other.
Engraving by William Blake (1757–1827).

Todd focuses on the key reasons that have led to the West’s downfall. Among them: the end of the nation-state; de-industrialization (which explains NATO’s deficit in producing weapons for Ukraine); the “degree zero” of the West’s religious matrix, Protestantism; the sharp increase of mortality rates in the US (much higher than in Russia), along with suicides and homicides; and the supremacy of an imperial nihilism expressed by the obsession with Forever Wars. Todd methodically analyses, in sequence, Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Germany, Britain, Scandinavia and finally The Empire. Let’s focus on what would be the 12 Greatest Hits of his remarkable exercise:

1. At the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in February 2022, the combined GDP of Russia and Belarus was only 3.3% of the combined West (in this case the NATO sphere plus Japan and South Korea). Todd is amazed how these 3.3% capable of producing more weapons than the whole Western colossus not only are winning the war but reducing dominant notions of the “neoliberal political economy” to shambles.
2. The “ideological solitude” and “ideological narcissism” of the West – incapable of understanding, for instance, how “the whole Muslim world seems to consider Russia as a partner rather than an adversary”.
3. Todd eschews the notion of “Weberian states” – evoking a delicious compatibility of vision between Putin and US realpolitik practitioner John Mearsheimer. Because they are forced to survive in an environment where only power relations matters, states are now acting as “Hobbesian agents.” And that brings us to the Russian notion of a nation-state, focused on “sovereignty”: the capacity of a state to independently define its internal and external policies, with no foreign interference whatsoever.
4. The implosion, step by step, of WASP culture, which led, “since the 1960s”, to “an empire deprived of a center and a project, an essentially military organism managed by a group without culture (in the anthropological sense)”. This is Todd defining the US neocons.
5. The US as a “post-imperial” entity: just a shell of military machinery deprived of an intelligence-driven culture, leading to “accentuated military expansion in a phase of massive contraction of its industrial base”. As Todd stresses, “modern war without industry is an oxymoron”.
6. The demographic trap: Todd shows how Washington strategists “forgot that a state whose population enjoys a high educational and technological level, even if it is decreasing, does not lose its military power”. That’s exactly the case of Russia during the Putin years.
7. Here we reach the crux of Todd’s argument: his post-Max Weber reinterpretation of The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, published a little over a century ago, in 1904/1905: “If Protestantism was the matrix for the ascension of the West, its death, today, is the cause of the disintegration and defeat.” Todd clearly defines how the 1688 English 'Glorious Revolution', the 1776 American Declaration of Independence and the 1789 French Revolution were the true pillars of the liberal West. Consequently, an expanded 'West' is not historically 'liberal', because it also engineered “Italian fascism, German Nazism and Japanese militarism”. In a nutshell, Todd shows how Protestantism imposed universal literacy on the populations it controlled, “because all faithful must directly access the Holy Scriptures. A literate population is capable of economic and technological development. The Protestant religion modeled, by accident, a superior, efficient workforce.” And it is in this sense that Germany was “at the heart of Western development”, even if the Industrial Revolution took place in England. Todd’s key formulation is undisputable: “The crucial factor of the ascension of the West was Protestantism’s attachment to alphabetization.” Moreover Protestantism, Todd stresses, is twice at the heart of the history of the West: via the educational and economic drive - with fear of damnation and the need to feel chosen by God engendering a work ethic and a strong, collective morality - and via the idea that Men are unequal (remember the White Man’s Burden). The collapse of Protestantism could not but destroy the work ethic to the benefit of mass greed: that is, neoliberalism.
8. Todd’s sharp critique of the spirit of 1968 would merit a whole new book. He refers to “one of the great illusions of the 1960s – between Anglo-American sexual revolution and May 68 in France”; “to believe that the individual would be greater if freed from the collective”. That led to an inevitable debacle: “Now that we are free, en masse, from metaphysical beliefs, foundational and derived, communist, socialist or nationalist, we live the experience of the void.” And that’s how we became “a multitude of mimetic midgets who do not dare to think by themselves – but reveal themselves as capable of intolerance as the believers of ancient times.”
9. Todd’s brief analysis of the deeper meaning of transgenderism completely shatters the Church of Woke – from New York to the EU sphere, and will provoke serial fits of rage. He shows how transgenderism is “one of the flags of this nihilism that now defines the West, this drive to destroy, not just things and humans but reality.” And there’s an added analytical bonus: “The transgender ideology says that a man may become a woman, and a woman may become a man. This is a false affirmation, and in this sense, close to the theoretical heart of Western nihilism.” It gets worse, when it comes to the geopolitical ramifications. Todd establishes a playful mental and social connection between this cult of the fake and the Hegemon’s wobbly behavior in international relations. Example: the Iranian nuclear deal clinched under Obama becoming a hardcore sanctions regime under Trump. Todd: “American foreign policy is, in its own way, gender fluid.”
10. Europe’s “assisted suicide”. Todd reminds us how Europe at the start was the Franco-German couple. Then after the 2007/2008 financial crisis, that turned into “a patriarchic marriage, with Germany as a dominant spouse not listening to his companion anymore”. The EU abandoned any pretention of defending Europe’s interests - cutting itself off from energy and trade with its partner Russia and sanctioning itself. Todd identifies, correctly, the Paris-Berlin axis replaced by the London-Warsaw-Kiev axis: that was “the end of Europe as an autonomous geopolitical actor”. And that happened only 20 years after the joint opposition by France-Germany to the neocon war on Iraq.
11. Todd correctly defines NATO by plunging into “their unconscious”: “We note that its military, ideological and psychological mechanism does not exist to protect Western Europe, but to control it.”
12. In tandem with several analysts in Russia, China, Iran and among independents in Europe, Todd is sure that the US obsession – since the 1990s - to cut off Germany from Russia will lead to failure: “Sooner or later, they will collaborate”, as “their economic specializations define them as complementary”. The defeat in Ukraine will open the path, as a “gravitational force” reciprocally seduces Germany and Russia.

[...] Whatever the deadline, inbuilt in all this is a total Russia victory – with the winner dictating all terms. No negotiations, no ceasefire, no frozen conflict – as the Hegemon is now desperate spinning.

 
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2024 Turn Of the Year (TOY) Barometer Very Positive │ Wayne Whaley

The Turn Of the Year (TOY) Barometer is based on the S&P's November 19 to January 19 performance. This is the most predictive period of the year, the single most reliable seasonality barometer of forward stock market returns and the kingpin of seasonal barometers. A return during this 2-month period greater than 3%  is a bullish signal, and the market is very likely to do well over the following 12 months. A return of 0-3% is a neutral signal, and results of the current year are expected to be somewhat random. A negative return is a bearish signal for the year, and returns tend to be very poor. 
 

The 2024 TOY is +7.22%. Since 1950 if TOY was > 3%, the next year (January 19 - January 19) had an average gain of +16.5% with two single digit losses (32-2), and February - April was 32-5 for an average 3 month gain of 4.23%.

Posted by at
Labels: , , , ,

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 
A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:
A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation
 
Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.
If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).
If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 
Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session. 
 
Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
  • Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
  • Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
  • Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
  • Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
  • Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.
 

Impossible Quarterly Phase Transitions:
  • Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
  • Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
  • Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
  • Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Monday, January 15, 2024

Quarterly Theory vs S&P 500 | Week January 15 - 19

Time-price relations are fractal and governed by algorithms. The trading week comprises four time quarters (Q1-Q4): Q1 is Monday, Q2 Tuesday, Q3 Wednesday and Q4 Thursday. Friday has a special function and is not part of this cycle. The market maker's time-price algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 patterns: AMD - X and X - AMD in which Q1-Q4 have the following functions: A   =  Accumulation phase; M  =  Manipulation phase; D  =  Distribution phase and X  =  Continuation or Reversal phase. In the weekly AMD - X pattern Q1 Monday is the Accumulation phase. Q2 Tuesday is the Manipulation phase and the first Q2 price is the weeks True Open. Q3 Wednesday has the 'distribution function' and produces the weeks largest directional move. Q3 is easiest and best to trade. X Thursday continues or reverses the Q3 trend. In the weekly X - AMD pattern Q1 Monday is the X day, Q2 accumulates, Q3 manipulates and Q4 Thursday produces the week's largest directional move; easiest and best to trade.    
 
S&P 500 (4 hour bars)
The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. 
Q1 is the first full week of the month, Q2 the second week, etc.
Week January 15 - 19 (Mon-Fri) =
 Q2 week with Accumulation function and AMD - X day pattern. 
 
 S&P 500 (30 minute bars)
 
Each trading day comprises four six hour quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia Session
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London Session (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 New York AM Session
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 New York PM Session
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 session patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each six hour session comprises four 90 minute quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 90 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AMD

Each 90 minute cycle comprises four  22.5 minute micro-quarters (EST/New York):
Q1 - 18:00 - 18:22:30
Q2 - 18:22:30 - 18:45 (first Q2 price = True Open)
Q3 - 18:45 - 19:07:30
Q4 - 19:07:30 - 19:30 
The algorithm generates two Q1-Q4 22.5 minute patterns:
AMD - X and X - AM
 
Reference:
Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , ,

The ICT Judas Swing | Michael J. Huddleston

The » Judas Swing « is an engineered false price run meant to trap traders into taking positions in the wrong direction. Traders can use this to catch the high or low of the day and sometimes even the week if the proper narrative is in play. A Judas Swing can happen either in the London or in the New York session; however it is most common during the London session. During the London session Judas Swing price action usually trades above or below the week's opening price and manipulates buy or sell stops. The Judas Swing usually runs into keys levels such as the previous week's, the previous day's High/Low and the previous session's High/Low, into premium/discount levels, and into imbalances (Fair Value Gaps, FVGs).
 
The concept of a Judas goat leading sheep to slaughter can be applied to price action in trading.
The London session Judas Swing can set the session's or the day's high or low. 
This will come as a quick spike price action hunting for buy or sell liquidity. 
 
► The London Session Judas Swing - Bearish Scenario
The London Judas Swing refers to a false move in the market during the London session that tricks traders into believing the price will continue in a particular direction but then reverses. Focus on trading and identifying the London Judas Swing between New York midnight to 5 AM (New York Local Time).
 
  • Mark Highs and Lows of the Asia Session: Identify the highest and lowest price levels reached during the Asia session.
  • Mark New York midnight candle opening: Identify the opening price of the candle at New York midnight (NY 00:00).
  • Check price trading above New York midnight: During the London Kill Zone (typically from the start of the London session until around 5:00 AM NY local time), check if the price is trading above the opening price of the candle in New York midnight.
  • Check for Liquidity Grab at Asian high: If the price is trading above the New York midnight opening during the London Kill Zone, check for a liquidity grab at the Asian session high.
  • Identify Market Structure Shift: Look for signs of a market structure shift, indicating a potential change in the market direction.
  • Find a favorable entry point (e.g. a Fair Value Gap): Based on the market structure shift and liquidity grab, identify a favorable entry point that aligns with the anticipated market direction.
  • Target: In an ideal scenario, set the target at the Asian session low or any visible sell-side liquidity, aiming for a profitable trade.
► The London Session Judas Swing - Bullish Scenario
Here’s a step-by-step breakdown for the bullish scenario, focusing on identifying a liquidity grab at the low of the Asian session during the London Kill Zone, finding the Market Structure Shift (MSS), determining a favorable entry point (FVG or IFVG), and setting the target at the Asian session high or buy-side liquidity:
 
  • Identify Liquidity Grab at Asian Session Low: During the London Kill Zone (between New York midnight to 5 AM NY local time), observe if the price trades above the New York midnight opening and check for a liquidity grab at the Asian session low.
  • Find Market Structure Shift (MSS): Look for a significant change or shift in market structure, such as a clear indication of a potential bullish movement.
  • Determine favorable entry (FVG or IFVG): Based on the observed market structure shift and liquidity grab, identify a favorable entry point (FVG) or an improved favorable entry point (IFVG) that aligns with the anticipated bullish movement.
  • Set Target: In this bullish scenario, set the target at the Asian session high or any visible buy-side liquidity, aiming for a profitable trade.
► The New York Session Judas Swing - Bearish Scenario

  • Time Frame: Focus on trading from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM (New York Kill Zone)
  • Price Condition: Confirm the price is trading above 7:00 AM and the NY Opening.
  • Buy Side Liquidity Hunt: Wait for a move higher to trigger buy orders (liquidity hunt).
  • Market Structure Shift (MSS): Look for a significant shift indicating a potential bearish direction.
  • Favorable entry (FVG or IFVG): Identify a strategic entry point aligning with the expected bearish movement.
  • Target: Aim for sell-side liquidity or visible sell-side order clusters.
► The New York Session Judas Swing - Bullish Scenario
  • Time Frame: Focus on trading from 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM (New York Kill Zone)
  • Price Condition: Confirm the price is trading below 7:00 AM and the NY Opening.
  • Sell Side Liquidity Hunt: Wait for a move lower to trigger sell orders (liquidity hunt).
  • Market Structure Shift (MSS): Look for a significant shift indicating a potential bullish direction.
  • Favorable entry (FVG or IFVG): Identify a strategic entry point aligning with the expected bullish movement.
  • Target: Aim for buy-side liquidity or visible sell-side order clusters. 

Understanding the ICT Judas Swing.
 
 Ritchie Naso, a 40-year veteran NYSE floor trader:
 » Algorithms control the stock market. «
 
Reference:
 
 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Saturday, January 13, 2024

The Quarterly Theory | Jevaunie Daye

In March 2023 Jevaunie Daye (traderdaye), a young ICT trader from the US, took the trading world by storm with his Quarterly Theory (not to be confused with the Quarters Theory), a concept he derived from Michael Huddleston's ICT mentorships. Within weeks Daye's Youtube Channel with just one video in which he briefly outlined his theory exploded to 16,000 subscribers: "Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles."  
 
 
 
 Daye (March 14, 2023) - Ever wondered ... ?

The idea is to split year, month, week, day and session into quarters at specific times which lead to ICT's Power of 3 (Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution) cycles within those quarters. They present in one of these two forms:

Q1. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q2. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q3. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
Q4. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.

(OR)

Q1. (X) - Continuation or Reversal of previous quarter.
Q2. (A)ccumulation - Consolidation.
Q3. (M)anipulation - Judas Swing.
Q4. (D)istribution - Low Resistance Liquidity Run.
 
 
Blending the Quarterly Theory and basic ICT concepts leads to enhanced precision. Understanding Quarterly Theory allows to be flexible. It fits in with any style of trading, as it is universal to all time-frames. The Quarterly Theory removes ambiguity, as it gives specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades. Before being able to apply this theory to trading, one must first understand that time is fractal:

Yearly Quarters = 4 quarters of three months each.
Monthly Quarters = 4 quarters of one week each.
Weekly Quarters = 4 quarters of one day each (Monday - Thursday). Friday has its own specific function.
Daily Quarters = 4 quarters of 6 hours each = 4 trading sessions of a trading day.
Sessions Quarters =  4 quarters of 90 minutes each.
90 Minute Quarters =  4 quarters of 22.5 minutes each.
 
Yearly Cycle: Analogously to financial quarters, the year is divided in four sections of three months each:
 
Q1 - January, February, March.
Q2 - April, May, June (True Open, April Open).
Q3 - July, August, September.
Q4 - October, November, December.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) — Monthly Cycle.

Monthly Cycle: Considering that we have four weeks in a month, we start the cycle on the first month’s Monday (regardless of the calendar Day):
 
Q1 - Week 1: first Monday of the month.
Q2 - Week 2: second Monday of the month (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Week 3: third Monday of the month.
Q4 - Week 4: fourth Monday of the month.
 
 
S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) — Weekly Cycle.
 
Weekly Cycle: Daye determined that although the trading week is composed by 5 trading days, we should ignore Friday, and the small portion of Sunday’s price action:
 
Q1 - Monday.
Q2 - Tuesday (True Open, Daily Candle Open Price).
Q3 - Wednesday.
Q4 - Thursday.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (1 hour candles) — Daily Cycle.

Daily Cycle: The Day can be broken down into 6 hour quarters. These times roughly define the sessions of the trading day, reinforcing the theory’s validity:
 
Q1 - 18:00 - 00:00 Asia.
Q2 - 00:00 - 06:00 London (True Open).
Q3 - 06:00 - 12:00 NY AM.
Q4 - 12:00 - 18:00 NY PM.
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (15 minute candles) — 6 Hour Cycle.

6 Hour Quarters or 90 Minute Cycle / Sessions divided into four sections of 90 minutes each  (EST/EDT):
 
Asian Session
Q1 - 18:00 - 19:30
Q2 - 19:30 - 21:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 21:00 - 22:30
Q4 - 22:30 - 00:00
 London Session
Q1 - 00:00 - 01:30
Q2 - 01:30 - 03:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 03:00 - 04:30
Q4 - 04:30 - 06:00
NY AM Session 
Q1 - 06:00 - 07:30
Q2 - 07:30 - 09:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 09:00 - 10:30
Q4 - 10:30 - 12:00
NY PM Session 
Q1 - 12:00 - 13:30
Q2 - 13:30 - 15:00 (True Open)
Q3 - 15:00 - 16:30
Q4 - 16:30 - 18:00
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (5 minute candles) — 90 Minute Cycle.

Micro Cycles: Dividing the 90 Minute Cycle yields 22.5 Minute Quarters, also known as Micro Sessions or Micro Quarters:
 
Asian Session
Q1/1 18:00:00 - 18:22:30
Q2     18:22:30 - 18:45:00
Q3     18:45:00 - 19:07:30
Q4     19:07:30 - 19:30:00
Q2/1 19:30:00 - 19:52:30 (True Session Open)
Q2/2 19:52:30 - 20:15:00
Q2/3 20:15:00 - 20:37:30
Q2/4 20:37:30 - 21:00:00
Q3/1 21:00:00 - 21:23:30
etc.    21:23:30 - 21:45:00
London Session
00:00:00 - 00:22:30  (True Daily Open)
00:22:30 - 00:45:00
00:45:00 - 01:07:30
01:07:30 - 01:30:00
01:30:00 - 01:52:30  (True Session Open)
01:52:30 - 02:15:00
02:15:00 - 02:37:30
02:37:30 - 03:00:00
03:00:00 - 03:22:30
03:22:30 - 03:45:00
03:45:00 - 04:07:30
04:07:30 - 04:30:00
04:30:00 - 04:52:30
04:52:30 - 05:15:00
05:15:00 - 05:37:30
05:37:30 - 06:00:00
New York AM Session
06:00:00 - 06:22:30
06:22:30 - 06:45:00
06:45:00 - 07:07:30
07:07:30 - 07:30:00
07:30:00 - 07:52:30  (True Session Open)
07:52:30 - 08:15:00
08:15:00 - 08:37:30
08:37:30 - 09:00:00
09:00:00 - 09:22:30
09:22:30 - 09:45:00
09:45:00 - 10:07:30
10:07:30 - 10:30:00
10:30:00 - 10:52:30
10:52:30 - 11:15:00
11:15:00 - 11:37:30
11:37:30 - 12:00:00
New York PM Session
12:00:00 - 12:22:30
12:22:30 - 12:45:00
12:45:00 - 13:07:30
13:07:30 - 13:30:00
13:30:00 - 13:52:30  (True Session Open)
13:52:30 - 14:15:00
14:15:00 - 14:37:30
14:37:30 - 15:00:00
15:00:00 - 15:22:30
15:22:30 - 15:45:00
15:45:00 - 15:37:30
15:37:30 - 16:00:00
16:00:00 - 16:22:30
16:22:30 - 16:45:00
16:45:00 - 17:07:30
17:07:30 - 18:00:00
 
 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (30 second candles) — 22.5 Minute Cycle.

The Monthly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one week each. Start counting the quarters from the first full week, meaning if the first week relating to the traditional month is a partial week, it is omitted and viewed as distortion. The first full week of the month is the first quarter, the second week is the second quarter, the third week is the third quarter and the fourth week is the fourth quarter.

 
Daye (Feb 19, 2024) - Quarterly Theory - The Secret ICT Trading Strategy.

The Weekly Cycle is comprised of four quarters, one day each. Monday is the first quarter, Tuesday is the second quarter, Wednesday is the third quarter and Thursday is the fourth quarter. Friday is not included into the weekly cycle due to the fact that it has its own specific function.

The Daily Cycle is comprised of four quarters, six hours each, which perfectly aligns with the four trading sessions of a trading day. The first quarter is the Asian session, the second quarter is the London session, the third quarter is the New York session and the fourth quarter is the afternoon session. 
 
Each Session is comprised of four quarters, 90 minutes each. During the Asian session, the 90 minute cycles are as follows: 18:00 to 19.30 is the first quarter, 19.30 to 21:00 is the second quarter, 21:00 to 22:30 is the third quarter and 22:30 to 24:00 midnight is the fourth quarter. During the London session, the first quarter is 00.00 / midnight to 1:30. The second quarter is 1:30 to 3:00. The third quarter is 3:00 to 4:30, and the fourth quarter is 4:30 to 6:00. The New York AM Session starts with the first quarter at 6:00 and lasts to 7:30. The second quarter is 7:30 to 9:00. The third quarter is 9:00 to 10:30. And the fourth quarter is 10:30 to 12:00. The first quarter of the New York PM Session starts  at 12:00 and lasts to 13:30. The second quarter is 13:30 to 15:00. The third quarter is 15:00 to 16:30. And the fourth quarter is 16:30 to 18:00.

Now that we understand that time is fractal, we can begin to look into the functions of some of the quarters. Price is delivered by an algorithm. So there must be some initial input which is used to make decisions throughout each cycle. This is the function of Q1. Q1 dictates the quarters which follow, meaning Q1 is used as a barometer for forecasting market conditions in the subsequent quarters of each cycle. If the first quarter is overextended, expect the second quarter to consolidate, and if the first quarter is in a tight range, expect the second quarter to expand. 
 
 
True Opens are the main components of quarterly theory. There are specific openings of price which serve as a time-based filter for gauging manipulation swings or stop-hunts. True opens are the beginning of Q2 of every cycle.  True Opens are defined by these times:
  • Yearly True Open = 1st Monday of April.
  • Monthly True Open = 2nd Monday of the month.
  • Weekly True Open = 18:00 every Monday.
  • Daily True Open = 12:00 (Midnight).
  • NY AM Session True Open = 7:30
  • NY AM Session True Open = 13:30
  • Asian Session True Open = 19:30
  • London Session True Open = 1:30
 
Buy below True Open. Sell above True Open.
 
 
It is a simple concept to understand. If you are bullish within a specific cycle, you want to buy below its true open, and if you are bearish within a specific cycle, you want to sell above its true open. This will increase your accuracy tremendously, as key levels usually rest above or below true opens. Every cycle has its own true open. The true year open is the opening price of the first Monday of April. The true month open is the opening price of the second Monday of the month. The true week open is Monday at 18:00. The true day open is 12 o'clock midnight. The true open of the age on session is 19:30. The true open of the London session is 1:30. The true open of the New York session is 7:30. And the true open of the afternoon session is 13:30. The image to the right depicts how true opens function during bullish market environments.

There are two sets of instructions that the algorithm follows:  

AMD-X and X-AMD
 
A = Accumulation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation = Judas Swing
D = Distribution
X = Reversal or Continuation

After a tight Q1 range the Q2 Manipulation Phase begins. ICT calls this the Judas Swing. According to his algorithmic theory, the purpose of this fake move is to get traders offside. After Q2 the real move takes place: the Q3 distribution phase and is usually the easiest to trade as the previous quarter has already established a trend of the cycle. The fourth phase is X which can either continue to establish range of the cycle or reverse. In regards to this example, the fourth quarter is reversal. As you can see, price reverses at Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (PDAs) or key levels. 
 
 The AMD-Principle is represented in every bar of every time-frame (monthly, weekly, daily, 4 Hour, etc.) 
with a price value at which it starts trading (opening price), the highest price value (high), the lowest (low), 
and  a value of the time it ends trading (close).

Liquidity is induced when price breaches old highs and old lows while trading into key levels. If you usually trade with the one minute chart, you need a 15 minute PDA. If you usually trade with the five minute chart, you need a one hour PDA. If you usually trade with the 15 minute chart, you need a four hour PDA. If you usually trade with the one hour chart, you need a daily PDA. And if you usually trade with the four hour chart, you need a weekly PDA. 
 
Regarding X-AMD, the first quarter is the continuation or reversal of the previous Q. Of the previous cycle, using what we understand from the function of Q1, Q2 should then accumulate, resulting in high range price action. Q3 would then be the manipulation phase. However, the rules for the true opens are static. They don't change. The opening price of Q2 will always be its true open. So if the profile that you're looking at is X-AMD, even though accumulation takes place during Q2, you will use the opening price of Q2, which is its true open to gauge, the Judah swing, which will present itself more times or not in Q3. The last phase will be the distribution phase, which will be the easiest phase to trade in regards to X-AMD. 
 
Dividing a 90 Minute Cycle into 22.5 Minute Quarters (Micro Sessions).
 
Reference:
 
Quarterly Theory - the Hack of the Algorithm?
» Is this proof of the algorithm existing or not? I do think so;-) 
And it's mind blowing how this fractal quarterly theory happens over and over again. « 
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)