Showing posts with label Darya Filipenka. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Darya Filipenka. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) | Darya Filipenka

Timing is an important factor in trading, and a well-defined strategy can significantly increase your chances of success. The ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) strategy is one approach that traders can utilize to identify high-probability trade setups. It’s important to pinpoint the specific time and day when the OTE is most likely to occur. Typically, this happens between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM, New York local time.
 

Market Structure - As the market rises and declines and makes
higher highs/lower lows, each new swing higher/lower in price is anchored or directly reacting to another swing higher or lower. Every swing in price has an equal counter swing it is unfolding from and attempting to fulfill. 
 
Market Structure Shift (MSS) - comes from the HL or LH levels, it will serve as one of the reasons for us to enter the trade. A market structure shift is depicted as a significant level on the chart where the prior trend Is invalidated. When the market is in an uptrend, the market structure shift level is typically identified as a point where a lower low is formed. Conversely, in a downtrend, the market structure shift level Is often observed at a juncture where a higher high emerges. Notably, these market structure shifts tend to arise following a displacement, signaling a potential shift in the overall trend direction.

1. The Premium Zone represents the price correction range situated above the 0.5 (50%) level in the context of a downward momentum. Traders pay attention to this zone when considering selling opportunities.
2. The Discount Zone refers to the price correction range located below the 0.5 (50%) level in the case of an upward impulse. Traders observe this zone for potential buying opportunities.
3. The Equilibrium Zone denotes the price range where the asset's average price is located. In other words, it represents the fair price zone or the level of balance between buyers and sellers.
 

Traders and market makers seek opportunities to buy at a Discount and sell at the Premium zone. As a result, traders often disregard the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels in their analysis and instead wait for the price to move above or below the equilibrium level. We focus on the Premium / Discount Zones, since the price does not always enter the OTE zone. Sometimes it is enough for price to adjust by 0.5 (50%) in order for the big man to gain or lose a position.
 

To select the high and low points of a dealing range, follow these steps:

1. Run a Fibonacci retracement tool from the highest high to the lowest low within the dealing range. This will help establish the overall range of price action.
2. Pay attention to areas where the algorithms consolidate. These consolidation areas indicate fair value and are important in determining the proper dealing range.
3. Consider the nearest high when the 50% Fibonacci level aligns with the common consolidation area. This will help identify the appropriate high point of the dealing range.
4. Select the lowest low as the low point of the dealing range. This ensures that the range encompasses the relevant price action and aligns with the areas where algorithms are active.

To implement the OTE strategy, follow these steps:

1. Determine the current market structure, whether it has a bullish or bearish bias. This ia crucial as Fibonacci levels work best within a trending market.
2. Identify significant swing highs and lows to draw the Fibonacci grid. These highs and lows are often visually prominent and easy to label.
3. Use the Fibonacci retracement tool to assess the correction potential in an uptrend (from bottom to top) or downtrend (from top to bottom).

Using OTE during Silver Bullet: After identifying the MSS, I recommend drawing an OTE retracement from the Swing Low (High) to the Swing High (Low). The optimal entry point for trades is typically at the 62% retracement level of that range. Once the trade is entered, the first target is typically set at the -27% extension level, and the second target is set at the -62% extension level. Wait for price to trade back into the FVG (Fair Value Gap) and then reprice out of the FVG towards the targeted pool of liquidity. Usually a FVG lines up with the 62% retracement level.  
 
Reference:

Monday, May 27, 2024

ICT Intraday Templates & Setups for ES/NQ/YM | Michael J. Huddleston

There are six Intraday Templates and Trading Setups for the S&P (ES), the Nasdaq (NQ) and the Dow Jones (YM) - three bullish and three bearish ones:
  • Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close. (1.1 + 1.2)
  • AM Rally and PM Reversal OR AM Decline and PM Reversal. (2.1 + 2.2)
  • Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline OR Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally. (3.1 + 3.2)
1.1    Two Session Up Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)
If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF (Higher timeframes = 4 hour, daily, weekly, monthly) chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur. The daily range can go straight trough the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong economic news release. Don't think we’ll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there is a chance they work trough lunch. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session.

  • Institutional Order Flow (IOF): Bullish.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] OR Drops into a Fair Value (FV) Discount Array then rallies into Close.
 1.2    Two Session Down Close (Trend Day ≈ 10% of all trading days)
If we are in the middle of an intermediate or long term price swing based on what we would see on the HTF chart, this is the classic scenario. When we start approaching HTF opposing arrays, this profile is less likely to occur.
 

  • Institutional Order Flow: Bearish.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then declines.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] OR Rises into a Fair Value Discount Array then declines into Close.
 
Tips for Two Session Up Close OR Two Session Down Close = trending days:
► When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish (two session up close)/bearish (two session down close).
If we're in the middle of an intermediate term or long term price swing based on what we see on the HTF chart, then this is the classic scenario until we start approaching an opposing array on the 4h/daily/weekly. PM session would be ideal if its symmetrical to the AM session (measured move).
The daily range can go straight through the lunch hour with very little consolidation whatsoever, depending on what the catalyst was that send prices higher it could be a very strong or surprised economic news release.
Don't think we'll always get the consolidation in lunch hour, if we move higher fast there's a chance they work through lunch.
How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT (Smart Money Tool / Smart Money Technique) between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 am lows/highs.
PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge.
AM session hold till about 10:30-11:00 and also look for 15m PD arrays.
PM session: besides the SMT we can also return to FVG or OB formed in lunch hour.

2.1    AM Rally PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)
Price is yet to fulfill a completion of a bullish run, but very close to where we are presently there is a higher time frame premium PD (Premium/Discount) array. The session will start off bullish until it hits the HTF PD array which causes the intraday market reversal.
 
  • Institutional Order Flow: Bullish - under HTF Premium-Discount Array.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday High and then reverses into Close.
  • PM Trend can resume higher if AM session Discount = HTF.
 
2.2   AM Decline and PM Reversal (Typical Day ≈ 25% of all trading days)

 
  • Institutional Order Flow: Bearish (IOF) - above HTF Discount Premium/Discount Array.
    AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reverses into Close OR Runs the Intraday Lows and then reverses into Close..
  • PM Trend can resume lower if AM session Premium = HTF. 

 
Tips for AM Rally PM reversal (bullish)/AM Decline PM reversal (bearish):
When daily and 4H institutional order flow is bullish/bearish and price is near a 4H/daily TF PD array, so this model is the completion of a run. AM session is bullish/bearish until it hits the HTF pd array which causes the intraday market reversal.
In the AM scenario you first drop into a 1H or 4H discount (bullish) / premium (bearish), then rally into HTF PD array (4H/daily/weekly).
Smart money reversal (SMR) - PM trend could either
- Run out the AM high/low and then rally or make a LH when it reverses. Just a run above a STH is also possible.
- Be just a retracement into the AM range and then continue HTF trend or really reverse on HTF. How do we know which one the PM trend will do? The PM session can resume higher/lower (reversal) if the AM session premium array equals a higher timeframe (4H, daily, weekly, monthly) premium array, it can go back into that array in PM and recapitalize that and then go lower and resume lower. If that’s NOT the case we can expect price to continue until we reach that HTF array.
How to trade: ICT always looks for SMT between the 3 indices at the lows/highs on both sessions.
AM SMT: compare London lows/highs and 9:30 lows/highs. PM SMT: compare lunch lows/highs and the high/low formed from the 13:00 candle. One has to diverge. So in the bearish scenario: If the AM high around 10:30am EST but often closer to 11:00 is below a 15m or the PD array, then we're going to be anticipating, before it even happens, outside the London lunch around 1 pm an initial rally into the 15m PD array followed by a HTF reversal. So in the AM session we're going to be holding our trade until there.
PM SMT: try to hold until 15:00 at least. If price is in the premium of the AM dealing range, we could see price continue lower/higher (when the premium array is not a HTF premium array), otherwise price will reverse there.
 
3.1    Consolidation AM Rally PM Decline (Trading Range /Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)
If unsure of what the IOF of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Discount Array then rallies OR expands Higher from Equilibrium to run London session Buy Stops.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Highs [Buy Stops] and then reaches for Day's Sell Stops OR Runs the Intraday High and then reaches for ID/London session Sell Stops. PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour.
3.2    Consolidation AM Decline PM Rally (Trading Range / Neutral Day ≈ 35% of all trading days)
If unsure of what the Institutional Order Flow of the current day is or where we are relative to Premium/Discount on Daily/4h, chances are we likely see this scenario - especially if there is no high/medium impact news expected during 10am or later in the day.

  • Institutional Order Flow: Neutral.
  • AM Trend: Returns to a Premium Array then declines OR expands Lower from Equilibrium to run London session Sell Stops.
  • Lunch Hour: Consolidates with shallow retracements.
  • PM Trend: Runs the Lunch Hour Lows [Sell Stops] and then reaches for Day's Buy Stops OR Runs the Intraday Low and then reaches for the Intraday London session Buy Stops.
  • PM Trend can simply consolidate into Close after Lunch Hour. 

Tips for Consolidation AM Rally and PM Decline / Consolidation AM Decline and PM Rally:
In this scenario Institutional Order Flow is neutral or unclear where we're at relative to premium or discount on 4H or daily. This scenario happens a lot in index trading which can be frustrating if you don’t know the mechanics behind it. When there's a strong directional bias behind the marketplace or the underlying meanings of the market suggest higher/lower prices, DO NOT look for this scenario. This is not seek and destroy (NFP), this is simply consolidation. This happens when there’s a lack of news or trend.
AM: price returns to a premium/discount then rallies OR after the first hour of the opening range or expands higher from EQ to run SSL/BSL (Buy Side Liquidity/Sell Side Liquidity)from London or intraday.
PM: 2 scenario’s —> 1. Run on lunch hour highs/lows then rally for AM session BSL/SSL or 2. run intraday high/lows and then run for intraday or London SSL/BSL.
How to trade: Which one is it going to do, lunch highs/lows or AM SSL/BSL? We are going to be looking for a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array. So the HTF confluence is the catalyst for the reversal. If that PD Array was already reached in AM, PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.
If the PM session takes lunch hour SSL/BSL or AM session SSL/BSL is dependent on the AM session BSL/SSL. If these lows/highs reached into a 15m PD array inside a 4h/Daily PD array PM will just run out lunch hour highs/lows.

How to know if the PM session will run lunch or intraday highs?

HTF PD array hit in AM session = Lunch highs likely to be run.
HTF PD array NOT hit in AM session= PM session  could run the intraday high, hit the HTF Premium array, and then reverse.
 

Friday, May 10, 2024

ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing trades using pre-programmed instructions or algorithms that automatically trigger trades based on certain conditions. It's a fascinating approach that can help traders make more precise and efficient decisions. Now, let's focus on a specific algorithmic trading model called the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) setup. This is a day-based algorithmic trading model that can be applied to all assets. As the name suggests, this model is designed to be used on Fridays. The TGIF setup focus is on a market pullback into the current weekly range. It is particularly effective when anchored against higher time frame analysis.

» In the last portion of Friday’s trading, if it hasn't occurred yet, you can expect some retracement of the weekly range. «

When using the TGIF setup it's crucial to approach from a top-down perspective. This means starting with higher time frame analysis, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction. In candlestick analysis, there is a concept called the ICT Power of 3. This refers to a specific pattern and distribution phase that can indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the market. By studying the one-month chart, you identify the weekly range and its key levels. You apply Fibonacci levels to pinpoint the sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur. You also conduct top-down analysis by examining higher time frame charts to get a broader view of the market's direction. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation. 


To apply the TGIF setup, follow these steps:
  1. Start by analyzing the higher time frame charts, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction.
  2. Identify the Weekly Range Profile and its key levels, such as the High and the Low of the range.
  3. Use Fibonacci levels to pinpoint sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur.
  4. Look for the pullback into the weekly range.
  5. Pay attention to the ICT Power of 3 pattern in candlestick analysis, which can indicate potential reversals or exhaustion.
  6. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation, a powerful pattern that provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
  7. Combine all these analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions using the TGIF setup.
 
 

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

ICT AM NY Session A+ Setup based on Quarterly Theory | Darya Filipenka

People have been asking me to share my strategy. No, I do NOT overcomplicate things. I'm simply demonstrating how straightforward it can be. My strategy is primarily based on the Power of 3 concept that you can find on @I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
 
ICT New York Morning Session A+ Setups based on Quarterly Theory:
Between 8:15 and 8:38 am (EST/EDT; during the Q3 micro cycle) look for a ICT Unicorn Setup.

I've made some additions to my trading arsenal since @traderdaye introduced the Quarterly Theory, but I've been using this setup since February 2023. I didn't have a name for it initially, but Quarterly Theory seems fitting to me.

I hope you can gain some new insights from my findings, which I've been diligently working on for almost a year. Nevertheless, the core of my strategy can be found on @traderdaye page and
@I_Am_The_ICT YouTube Channel.
  

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

ICT Syllabus for Beginners - How to Study ICT on YouTube | Darya Filipenka

This is my personal recommendation to study the ICT YouTube channel. I truly believe that this information is enough to understand how the ICT concepts works.  
 
 
ICT Syllabus for Beginners:

Part 1: 
Part 2: 
After Month 7: 
Part 3: 
Part 4: 
Part 5: Market Maker Models