Showing posts with label ICT Weekly Range Profiles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ICT Weekly Range Profiles. Show all posts

Friday, May 24, 2024

ICT Weekly Seek & Destroy Manipulation Profile | Michael J. Huddleston

 The Weekly 'Seek & Destroy' Range Manipulation Profile a.k.a. the 'Retail Traders Graveyard'.

The Weekly 'Seek & Destroy' Marker Maker Range Manipulation Template with either a bullish or a bearish Friday is a neutral or low probability market profile. The manipulation is taking place where price is consolidating Monday through Thursday, running shallow stops under and above the intra-week highs and lows, then runs the intra-week high/low and expands higher/lower into Friday. 
 
 
How to anticipate it? When the market is awaiting major news announcements in the second half of the week - especially after one or more directional wide-range weeks (see also the daily 'London Swing to Seek & Destroy' Template).


Friday, May 10, 2024

ICT T.G.I.F. (Thank God It's Friday) Setup | Darya Filipenka

Algorithmic trading is a method of executing trades using pre-programmed instructions or algorithms that automatically trigger trades based on certain conditions. It's a fascinating approach that can help traders make more precise and efficient decisions. Now, let's focus on a specific algorithmic trading model called the TGIF (Thank God It's Friday) setup. This is a day-based algorithmic trading model that can be applied to all assets. As the name suggests, this model is designed to be used on Fridays. The TGIF setup focus is on a market pullback into the current weekly range. It is particularly effective when anchored against higher time frame analysis.

» In the last portion of Friday’s trading, if it hasn't occurred yet, you can expect some retracement of the weekly range. «

When using the TGIF setup it's crucial to approach from a top-down perspective. This means starting with higher time frame analysis, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction. In candlestick analysis, there is a concept called the ICT Power of 3. This refers to a specific pattern and distribution phase that can indicate a potential reversal or exhaustion in the market. By studying the one-month chart, you identify the weekly range and its key levels. You apply Fibonacci levels to pinpoint the sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur. You also conduct top-down analysis by examining higher time frame charts to get a broader view of the market's direction. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation. 


To apply the TGIF setup, follow these steps:
  1. Start by analyzing the higher time frame charts, such as monthly or weekly charts, to get a broader view of the market's direction.
  2. Identify the Weekly Range Profile and its key levels, such as the High and the Low of the range.
  3. Use Fibonacci levels to pinpoint sweet spot where the TGIF setup is likely to occur.
  4. Look for the pullback into the weekly range.
  5. Pay attention to the ICT Power of 3 pattern in candlestick analysis, which can indicate potential reversals or exhaustion.
  6. Keep an eye out for the ICT Silver Bullet formation, a powerful pattern that provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
  7. Combine all these analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions using the TGIF setup.
 
 

Monday, February 5, 2024

Implementing Economic Calendar Events | Darya Filipenka

 
One of the primary reasons for studying the economic calendar is to anticipate and manage potential volatility in the markets. Economic events can have a profound impact on market sentiment and can cause significant price fluctuations. For example, an unexpected interest rate hike by the Central Bank can lead to a sharp sell-off in the stock market, while positive economic data can boost investor confidence and drive prices higher. The focus should be on High Impact and Medium Impact News Events.

Reference:
 

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The Weekly Opening Range & ICT Weekly Range Profiles

The Weekly Opening Range is defined by Monday's range. Monday sets the Opening Range high and low for the entire week. Tuesday may extend that range. It could become a false break, a break and range extension, a reversal, or maybe an inside day. In a large majority of weeks, by the time Monday and Tuesday has traded, the high or low extreme is in place for the week, and one of these will tend to hold, the other may get broken.  
 

After Monday's Weekly Opening Range only three things can happen on Tuesday:
  1. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Trend.
  2. A Breakout from a Opening Range and Reverse into the Opening Range (false breakout or stop hunt).
  3. A Trading Range between Highs and Lows of the Opening Range (inside day).
Coming into Wednesday, look for the following:
  • Did Monday or Tuesday close as an inside day?
  • Did Tuesday's breakout fail?
  • Did Tuesday close outside of Monday's Opening Range (= Opening Range Breakout) or inside?
  • Was Tuesday a First Red Day (FRD) or a First Green Day (FGD)?
  • Has there already been 3 levels of rise or fall from the High or the Low of the Week (LOW/HOW)? This could indicate a daily reversal.
  • Consider market structure! 


Here are some additional observations related to whether Wednesday will be a reversal or a trend continuation of the Monday-Tuesday initial balance:
  • If the market closes outside of Monday's Opening Range on Tuesday, the probability that Wednesday continues the trend increases significantly (unless the breakout fails on Wednesday)
  • On Tuesday the market breaks out of Monday's range, but pulls back and closes inside of  Monday's range (failed breakout). The probability of reaching for the other end of the Opening Range increases significantly.
  • If Monday's breakout fails, and Tuesday's breakout also fails at the other end of Monday's range, there is  high potential for a Parabolic Trend Trade on Wednesday.
  • 3 Pushes of drives out of the Weekly Opening Range coming into Friday has the highest potential for a large reversal.
  • If there are only 2 drives out of the Opening Range coming into Friday, there is a higher probability for a Parabolic Trend Trade.
  • If the breakout on Tuesday closes 3 levels of rise or fall out of the Opening Range, the potential for reversal throughout the week increases.
  • In most instruments the Tuesday-Friday range extension from Monday's opening range is usually a multiple of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2, 3, 4 or 5 of Monday's range.
  • In most instruments the Average Weekly Range equals 1.8 to 2.3 times the Average Daily Range. 
 
Time Frames - Price Ranges - Time-Price Proportions | Some Observations
 
References:

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

ICT Weekly Range Profiles | Michael J. Huddleston

These profiles are conceptual models that describe typical patterns of how prices might behave during a trading week. Each profile has unique characteristics that can guide traders in anticipating potential market movements. However, it’s important to note that these profiles are not rigid predictions but rather frameworks to understand market tendencies. 

(I) Classic Tuesday Low of the Week = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish it may manipulate on Monday and hover above a higher a higher time frame discount array. Then on Tuesday it drops into Higher Time Frame Premium-Discount Arrays (HTF PDAs) to form low of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the HTF PDA. When the market fails to drop into the discount array on Monday then its most likely that Tuesday will se the drive lower to mark weekly low in London or New York session.
 
 
(II) Classic Tuesday High of the Week = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish it may manipulate on Monday and hover below a higher time frame premium, array. Then on Tuesday it rises into higher time frame premium array to form high of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the higher time frame Premium array. When the market fails to rise into the premium array on Monday then its most likely that Tuesday will se the drive higher to mark weekly high in London or New York session.

 
 
(III) Wednesday Low of the Week = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish it may manipulate on Monday and Tuesday and hover above a higher a higher time frame discount array. Then on Wednesday it drops into higher time frame discount array to form low of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon one should know the higher time frame Discount Array. When the market fails to drop into the discount array on Monday and Tuesday then its most likely that Wednesday will se the drive lower to mark weekly low in London or New York session.
 
 
(IV) Wednesday High of the Week = Bearish Profile 
When price is bearish it may manipulate on Monday and Tuesday and hover below a higher a higher time frame premium array. Then on Wednesday it rises into higher time frame premium array to form high of the week. 
How to anticipate? To anticipate all this phenomenon you should know the higher time frame premium array. When the market fails to rise into the premium array on Monday and Tuesday then its most likely that Wednesday will se the drive higher to mark weekly high in London or New York session.
 
 
(V) Consolidation Thursday Bullish Reversal
When price is bullish it may consolidate on Monday through Wednesday then runs the intra-week low and rejects it forming a market reversal.
How to anticipate? To anticipate this you must know the higher timeframe discount array. And when price fails to drop into higher timeframe discount array then its likely that Thursday will see drive lower on market driver news or interest rate release late New York session around 02:00 PM (New York local time).
 
 
(VI) Consolidation Thursday Bearish Reversal
When price is bearish it may consolidate on Monday through Wednesday then runs the intra-week high and rejects it forming a market reversal.
How to anticipate? To anticipate this you must know the higher timeframe premium array. And when price fails to rise into higher timeframe premium array then its likely that Thursday will see drive higher on market driver news or interest rate release late New York session around 02:00 PM (New York local time).
 
 
(VII) Consolidation Midweek Rally = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish and consolidates Monday through Wednesday then runs into intra-week high and expands higher into Friday.
How to anticipate? When the price is bullish and has yet to run to premium array on the higher timeframe and it has recently rallied from a discount array and simply paused without any bearish reversal price action. This indicates price is about to expand higher for the premium array.
 
 
(VIII) Consolidation Midweek Decline = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish and consolidates Monday through Wednesday then runs into intra-week low and expands lower into Friday.
How to anticipate? When the price is bearish and has yet to run to discount array on the higher timeframe and it has recently declined from a premium array and simply paused without any bullish reversal price action. This indicates price is about to expand lower for the premium array.
 
 
(IX) Seek and Destroy Bullish Friday = Neutral-Low Probability Profile
When price consolidates Monday through Thursday running shallow stops under and above intra-week high, then runs the intra-week high and expands higher into Friday.
How to anticipate? When market is awaiting interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll, it can create this profile in the summer months of July and August. Better to avoid trading in these conditions.
 
 
(X) Seek and Destroy Bearish Friday = Neutral-Low Probability Profile
When price consolidates Monday through Thursday running shallow stops under and above intra-week high, then runs the intra-week low and expands lower into Friday.
How to anticipate? When market is awaiting interest rate announcements or Non-Farm Payroll, it can create this profile in the summer months of July and August. Better to avoid trading in these conditions.
 
 
(XI) Wednesday Weekly Bullish Reversal = Bullish Profile
When price is bullish and consolidates Monday through Tuesday and drives lower into higher timeframe discount array on Wednesday to induce sell stops and then strongly reverses.
How to anticipate? When the market is trading at the long term or intermediate term low, price will pair institutional buying with pending sell side liquidity (sell stops raid).
 
 
(XII) Wednesday Weekly Bearish Reversal = Bearish Profile
When price is bearish and consolidates Monday through Tuesday and drives higher into higher timeframe premium array on Wednesday to induce buy stops and then strongly reverses.
How to anticipate? When the market is trading at the long term or intermediate term high, price will pair institutional selling with pending buy side liquidity (buy stops raid).
 
 
 
The weekly price movement in financial markets follows a recurring pattern of consolidation, expansion, reversal, expansion again, consolidation, and a potential reverse or retracement. For example:
  1. Sunday Open Consolidation: The week often begins with price consolidation on the Sunday open, reflecting a cautious approach as traders assess the weekend developments.
  2. Monday Expansion: As the trading week gains momentum, Monday is typically marked by an expansion phase. This reflects increased activity and movement as traders react to new information.
  3. Tuesday Reversal: The following day, Tuesday, often witnesses a reversal in price trends. This can be attributed to traders reassessing their positions after the initial expansion phase.
  4. Wednesday Expansion: Midweek, the market tends to experience another expansion phase. This reflects a renewed bout of activity and movement in response to evolving market dynamics.
  5. Thursday Consolidation: On Thursday, there’s often a consolidation phase. Price ranges may narrow as traders assess the overall sentiment and prepare for the end of the trading week.
  6. Midweek Friday Reverse or Retrace: As the week approaches its close, Friday may see a reversal or retracement in trends. Traders might adjust their positions before the weekend, leading to a shift in price direction.

This weekly cycle reflects the rhythm of market sentiment and participant actions throughout the trading week.