2024 is an Election Year and the sitting President is running for office again.
In this constellation the S&P 500 typically tends to (1.) trend higher from early January into mid February;
(2.) decline into late March; (3.) rise up for the rest of the year, especially after elections.
Also take note of Larry Williams' re-election pattern.
The S&P 500's average annual return during Election Years is 11.6%. Since 1833 the fourth year in the Decennial Pattern has been up 13 vs 6 times down with an average annual return of 5.22%. Over the past 30 years,
January gains have occurred 17 times (57%), while losses numbered 13 (43%), barely better than the flip of a coin. In bull markets, New Moons are bottoms, and Full Moons are
tops. In bear markets, New Moons are tops, and Full Moons are bottoms. More often than not,
stocks will rise from around the 7th to around the 14th calendar day of a month, fall
from the 14th to the 20th, and rise from the 20th to the 25th.
In 1967 Yale Hirsch published the first Stock Trader’s Almanac and presented the Four Year Presidential Election Cycle
as an significant and predictive indicator of stock market performance.
The outcomes are relatively steady, regardless of the president’s
political leanings in office at the time, and the year after each
presidential election marks the start of a new four-year stock market
cycle. Considering annual returns of each year in the four year cycle,
the Pre-Election Year (2023) is considered best, and the Election Year second. The most predictive period of the year is November 19th to January 19th. Wayne Whaley coined it a 'Turn of the Year (TOY) Barometer'. If the return of this 2-month period is greater than 3%, a bullish
signal is given, and the market is very likely to do well over the
following 12 months. If the return is 0-3%, the signal is considered neutral; and if the return is negative, the signal is bearish, and returns very poor. Currently the S&P 500 still trades some 6% above the November 19 level.
The 250 year US empire live cycle concluded in 2023. Demise by folly overstretch. Uni-polar global supremacy is over, and Russia, China and Iran stronger than ever. A multi-polar world of worlds now knows how to deal with a paper-tiger gone mad. All star-spangled striped monsters check-mated, defeated and unveiled 24/7 along the many battle fronts on the globe. Project Ukraine lost. Now supervising genocide in Palestine. Yemen's Ansar Allah controls the Bab al-Mandab and launches full front attacks against the hegemon. An emerging Muslim alliance will liberate the Holy Land. Iran may shut down the Gibraltar strait any moment. The Taliban will enter Jerusalem and flatten Tel Aviv. Zionist Saudis and emirs doomed. Revolutionary Shia will root them out. The fever pitch increases. As some discard all this as hysteria and Islamist war propaganda, the dollar hegemony is rapidly melting away under the world island's rising sun. 2024 will be a remarkable 'election year'. W.D. Gann projected 'major panic, breadlines, soup kitchens, despair, and unemployment' into the US of 2024. And US astrologer L. David Linsky sees the home-front ready for more mayhem, upheaval, war and regime change. Plenty of opportunities along the lines and times in the above seasonal roadmap for 2024.
The Kitchin Cycle and the Benner Cycle are bullish for all of 2024 and 2025 (historically the fifth year outperforming all other years in the decennial pattern). In the current decennial cycle Larry Williams identified June 2024 as "the sweet spot with 90% accuracy" to buy stocks until December 2025.
In January 2024 the Sensitive Degrees of the Sun are:
Jan 02 (Tue) = Earth at perihelion = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high
Jan 06 (Sat) = negative = low
Jan 19 (Fri) = negative = low
Jan 30 (Tue) = positive = high
The Turning points in the Geocentric Bradley Barometer are (+/-1 CD):
Jan 04 (Thu) = Low
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High
Jan 13 (Sat) = High
Jan 22 (Mon) = Low
Jan 29 (Mon) = High
The SoLunar Rhythm during January 2024:
Last time the S&P 500 was up 9 consecutive weeks was in 2004 and before that two 9-week win streaks in 1989 and in 1994,
before that a 12-week win streak in 1985. The next years' returns were:
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%
1986 = 14%
1990 = -4.5%
1995 = 34%
2005 = 3%
