S&P 500 November Seasonality in Midterm Election Years

 

Expect the S&P to rally from a late-October low into around Nov 11 (Wed), decline into
Nov 19–23 (Thu–Mon), then rebound into month-end. Direction matters more than level.

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for November 2026 (equal weight on One-Year Seasonal Cycle: 98 years; 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.)

► November ranks 5th of 12 by average across all years (avg. +1.0%). 

● In Midterm Election Years it ranks 2nd (avg. +2.2%). 
● In the years ending in 6 it ranks 4th (avg. +1.4%).

● November was up in 61 of 98 years (62.24%, avg. +1.0%, med. +1.6%). 

● Midterm Election Year November was up in 21 of 24 (87.50%, avg. +2.0%, med. +2.2%).

► Nov 16 (Mon) through Nov 20 (Fri), expiration week, was up in 49 of 98 years (50.00%). 

● Midterm Election Years: 10 of 24 were up (41.67%, avg. −0.3%, med. −0.3%). 

 Q4 2026 Midterm Election Year Stretch.

► Oct 27 (Tue), 2026 opens the Midterm Election Year stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), up in 20 of 24 Midterm Election Years (83.33%, avg. +2.3%, med. +3.1%). The misses were 1930, −11.2%; 1978, −2.7%; 1994, −1.6%; and 2002, −0.8%.

● Election day is Nov 3 (Tue). 
● The November piece, from the October close through Nov 10 (Tue), was up in 19 of 24 (79.17%, avg. +1.7%, med. +1.8%).

► Nov 26 (Thu) is Thanksgiving. The stock and bond markets are closed.

● From the session before through the Friday after, Nov 25 (Wed) to Nov 27 (Fri), was up in 72 of 97 years (74.23%, avg. +0.3%, med. +0.6%). The Friday was closed in 1929.

►  November through April the following year, from the October close to the April close, was up in 69 of 98 years (70.41%, avg. +5.2%, med. +5.4%).

S&P 500 Detrended Presidential Cycle 2025-2028.

Correlation with the S&P 500 since January 1, 2026: -0.62 

 

S&P 500 2026 Performance vs. Composite Cycle and Components — Midterm Election Year. 

 

Nasdaq.

 

Dow Jones.

 

Russell 2000.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026.

TPR (2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds. 

Nicholas D. Savino (November 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for November 2026.

My Forecast for the Rest of 2026 | Larry Williams

US equities face near-term downside pressure and range-bound volatility amid poor breadth. Deteriorating internals—seen in the divergence between a strong NASDAQ, moderately strong S&P 500, and weak Dow and Russell 2000—suggest capital is rotating from quality blue chips into speculation, a pattern that has historically preceded broader sell-offs.

A major synchronized cyclical low and buying opportunity across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell is projected around Tuesday, October 27, ahead of the US presidential election. At the trough, focus capital on the index showing the strongest relative strength and greatest resistance to selling pressure during the decline.

Reference:

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026. 

  

S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Oct 27 (Tue) opens the midterm stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), 2026, up in 22 of 24

midterm years (91.67%, avg. +2.6%, med. +3.2%). Misses: 1930 (−12.6%) and 1994 (−0.3%).  

 DJIA.

Russell 2000. 

 

 NASDAQ.

Detrended seasonal cycles isolate short-term periodic signals by removing longer-term trends, preventing distortion and enabling precise measurement of amplitude and timing.

See also:

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

TPR (September 29, 2026) - S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

 Wayne Whaley (August 2, 2025) - 17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026. 

Why the Best Part of the Presidential Cycle Starts Now | Jeff Hirsch

On the Full Signal podcast from October 1, 2026, Jeff Hirsch spoke about historical market cycles, midterm positioning, structural AI drivers, and actionable portfolio strategies.

Presidential Cycle 2025–2028: Midterm Sweet Spot expected rally target window: 

September 30, 2026 – July 19, 2027.

 

Presidential Cycles & The Midterm Sweet Spot

Midterm election years historically rank as the presidential cycle's weakest due to early-term policy friction and political uncertainty that drive a Q2–Q3 soft patch. By early October, markets transition into the cycle's most bullish window: the "midterm sweet spot" running from Q4 through pre-election Q2. Since 1949, this three-quarter stretch averages gains of +19% for the Dow, +20% for the S&P 500, and +29–30% for the Nasdaq, with midterm Octobers frequently marking the exact pivot bottom.

The AI Super Boom & Market Fundamentals

This cyclical tailwind merges with a secular "AI super boom" comparable to post-war industrialization or the early internet era. Driven by massive hyperscaler capital expenditure and robust semiconductor earnings, this fundamental expansion supports high valuations into 2027 and overrides traditional cyclical drags. Historical super booms prove that staying invested through temporary volatility is essential when liquidity and structural drivers hold, despite short-term risks from extreme mega-cap tech concentration.

 

» October: Bear-Killer and Bargain Month. «

 

Macro Strategy: Yields, Politics & Small Caps

Near 5% bond yields increase equity opportunity costs, but strong AI earnings power and presidential cycle tailwinds dominate asset allocation. Hirsch is rotating from fixed income into lagging small caps, which offer relative value, broadening market participation into 2027, and seasonal drivers like the January Effect. Preferred sectors include transports, selective industrials, stabilizing financials, and core AI infrastructure, while post-midterm political gridlock adds market-friendly policy stability.

Technical Timing & Seasonality Execution

Rather than relying on strict calendar dates, seasonal strategies require technical filters. For the "Best Six Months" strategy (November–April for broad markets; extended through June for Nasdaq), a confirmed positive MACD crossover on major averages on or after early October triggers the buy signal, while negative April/June crossovers signal exits. Institutional tax cycles, calendar flows, and psychology maintain seasonal edges, but MACD confirmation prevents false starts.

Jeff Hirsch uses MACD crossovers as a technical filter to execute the "Best Six Months" strategy. By combining technical momentum with the calendar, he avoids buying into falling markets or exiting strong spring rallies prematurely.
► Timing Windows: The "Best Six Months" run Nov 1–Apr 30 for the Dow/S&P 500, extending through June for Nasdaq. Daily monitoring begins October 1 for buys and April 1 (June 1 for Nasdaq) for exits.   
► Indicator Setup: Daily charts with 12-day fast EMA, 26-day slow EMA, and a 9-day signal line.Buy Signal: On/after Oct 1, a positive MACD crossover (12-day EMA crosses above 26-day EMA) triggers the Seasonal Buy Signal, confirming downside momentum has ended before entering equities.
► Sell Signal: On/after Apr 1 (or Jun 1 for Nasdaq), a negative MACD crossover triggers the Seasonal Sell Signal, shifting exposure to cash or defensive sectors.
► Why It Works: It eliminates buying into October market crashes, captures extended spring upside, and reduces drawdowns compared to strict calendar dates or buy-and-hold strategies. 

Bearish Risks & Defensive Rules

Key risks to the base case include policy missteps, re-accelerating inflation, labor deterioration, geopolitical shocks, or an AI earnings reset. Shifting bearish entails tactical risk management—tightening stops and trimming laggards—rather than full liquidation, maintaining flexibility if macro trends or technicals break down.

 

See also:

TPR (September 29, 2026) - S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 29, 2026) - October's Volatility and the Historical Surge That Follows. 

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.

S&P 500 October Seasonality in Midterm Election Years

 

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for October 2026 (equal weight on One-Year Seasonal Cycle: 98 years; 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.)

► October ranks 8th of 12 by average across all years (avg. +0.6%). July is best (avg. +1.7%) and September is worst (avg. −1.1%). In midterm years it ranks 1st (avg. +2.4%) and September is worst (avg. −1.5%). In the nine years ending in 6 it ranks 3rd (avg. +2.1%). March is best (avg. +3.1%) and September is worst (avg. −1.5%).
► October was up in 58 of 98 years (59.18%, avg. +0.6%, med. +1.1%). In midterm years, 16 of 24 were up (66.67%, avg. +2.4%, med. +2.5%). From the September close through Oct 15 (Thu), all years were up in 63 of 98 (64.29%, avg. +0.7%, med. +1.3%). Midterm years were up in 17 of 24 (70.83%, avg. +2.1%, med. +2.1%).
► Oct 12 (Mon) is Columbus Day. The stock market is open. The bond market is closed. It is the first session of expiration week, up in 54 of 98 years (55.10%, avg. +0.1%, med. +0.1%). In midterm years, 14 of 24 were up (58.33%, avg. +0.2%, med. +0.3%).
► Oct 12 (Mon) through Oct 16 (Fri), expiration week, was up in 59 of 98 years (60.20%, avg. flat, med. +0.5%). The average is flat because a few weeks were large losses. In midterm years, 16 of 24 were up (66.67%, avg. +0.5%, med. +0.6%). Oct 16 (Fri), expiration day, was up in 47 of 98 years (47.96%, avg. −0.1%, med. flat). Midterm expiration days were up in 12 of 24 (50.00%, avg. +0.1%, med. +0.1%).
► Oct 27 (Tue) opens the midterm stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), 2026, up in 22 of 24 midterm years (91.67%, avg. +2.6%, med. +3.2%). The misses were 1930, −12.6%, and 1994, −0.3%. 
► Election day is Nov 3 (Tue), 2026. Oct 27 (Tue) through Oct 30 (Fri) alone was up in 15 of 24 years (62.50%, avg. +0.6%, med. +0.6%).
► May through October, which this month closes, was up in 65 of 98 years (66.33%, avg. +2.5%, med. +3.6%). In midterm years, 12 of 24 were up (50.00%, avg. −0.6%, med. +2.1%). The average is down because a few of those years were large losses. The median year was up.
► Last quarter Oct 3 (Sat), 9:25 a.m. EDT. New moon Oct 10 (Sat), 11:50 a.m. EDT. First quarter Oct 18 (Sun), 12:13 p.m. EDT. Full moon Oct 26 (Mon), 12:12 a.m. EDT. No solstice and no eclipse this month.

Since January 1, 2026, One-Year Seasonality — All Years has shown the strongest correlation with the S&P 500

(Seasonal +0.89 · Composite +0.64 · Presidential −0.59 · Decennial +0.46). Seasonal is the closest match.

 

One-Year Seasonality — All Years. 

 

Since January 1, 2026, One-Year Seasonality — All Years has shown the strongest correlation with the S&P 500

(Seasonal +0.89 · Composite +0.64 · Presidential −0.59 · Decennial +0.46). Seasonal is the closest match.

 

S&P 500 2026 Performance vs. Composite Cycle and Components.

 

Presidential Cycle 2025–2028 and Midterm Election Year 2026 Sweet Spot:

The much talked about potential rise from September 30 (Wed), 2026 through July 19 (Mon), 2027.  

 

See also:

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.

Top 2026 DJIA Analog Composite Points to October Low | @Fiorente2

@Fiorente2 points out that the season is approaching when, historically, many of the year's largest market declines have already occurred—including 1929, 1987, 1997, 1978, and 1979. The current DJIA cycle most closely resembles the 1890, 1898, and 1978 midterm analogs, whose red composite line's turning points have tracked the index with a 0.80 correlation over the past year. 

DJIA: 1890–1898–1978 Analog Composite with Projected Turns.

The blue line of his heliocentric Index of Cyclical Variation shows a similar pattern, although it does not correlate with the DJIA's price level. Both cycles suggests a potential low around October 2026, followed by a short-lived rebound, before a broader decline resumes into 2027 and potentially reaches a 5-year low in October–November 2027.

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (September 14, 2026) - The Dow blinks first. Will the others follow?

See also:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886.

September Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Since 1950, September has historically delivered bearish stock market performance across major indexes, with all-year averages dropping 0.6% to 0.8% by month-end. Midterm-election years significantly amplify this weakness through four-phases: 

 

► Sep 1–8 (Tue–Tue) = Trading Days 1–5: Sideways-to-up / modestly higher. Most midterm series (especially Russell 2000 and DJIA) rise, with several peaking near +0.5% to +1.0%.
► Sep 9–17 (Wed–Thu) = TD 6–12: Sideways to mildly fading. Early gains are largely held or only slowly given back. S&P 500 midterm often remains the strongest (still near its peak), while NASDAQ and Russell lines begin drifting lower.
► Sep 18–25 (Fri–Fri) = TD 13–18: Steady decline. The mid-month advantage disappears; indices trend lower and most move into negative territory.
► Sep 28–30 (Mon–Wed) = TD 19–21: Accelerating sell-off / sharp weakness. Losses deepen, particularly in NASDAQ and Russell 1000 (historically finishing around –1.6% to –1.8%). Russell 2000 also shows a late plunge.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 1, 2026) - September Seasonality: Weakness Intensifies in Midterm Years.

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%).

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Seth Golden (July 28, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains.

Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains | Seth Golden

Buying the S&P 500 on US midterm election day and holding until June 30 of the following year has produced positive returns in every instance since 1942, averaging roughly +16% with a range of about +2.5% to +30.8% across all cycles, regardless of which party controlled the White House, Senate, or House. 

 

 

» If you bought on Midterm Election Day, held through June 30th of
the following year the S&P 500 was higher EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. « 

 

Midterm years themselves typically deliver the weakest average returns (~4–5%) and highest volatility/drawdowns in the four-year presidential cycle, with weakness often concentrated in Q3/Q4 ahead of November; the rebound usually begins in late Q4. 

 

Nevertheless, cycle rankings place Year 3 (the post-midterm/pre-election year) as the historical "sweet spot," typically outperforming Year 1 (~4–7%), Year 2/midterm (~3–5%, weakest), and Year 4/election (~6–8%), with average gains often cited in the 10–17% range as incumbents frequently pursue pro-growth policies.

 

Reference:
Seth Golden (July 27, 2026) - Presidential Cycle Sweet Spot: Post-Midterm Election Gains. 

 

DJIA Four-Year Presidential Cycle.

S&P 500 Average Annual Performance. 

Average S&P 500 total-return path (indexed to 100 on midterm Election Day) for all midterm years since 1970 (1970–2022), spanning roughly ±6 months. X-axis centers on Election Day (first Tuesday in November); y-axis tracks cumulative total return. The average line rises in the final ~22 trading days before the election (= October 2, 2026) and continues higher afterward (+14.1% average in the following six months). A separate “Lost Control” series (party loses presidential trifecta) lags the broader average post-election (+10.4% vs. +16.1%)

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

August Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

The chart isolates August performance across Trump's first term (2017–2020), 2025, and the 2018 midterm. Returns have exceeded August's bearish reputation, but the structure persists: early weakness, late strength.

 

Early-month weakness, stronger second half: On average, the Nasdaq closed up nearly 6%.

Lows on August 13 (Thu) and August 17 (Mon), followed by a near 3% DJIA rally into month-end.

 

Trump-era policy shocks have repeatedly triggered selloffs that quickly reversed into "TACO Trade" rallies. This cycle differs—tensions with Iran appear less susceptible to rapid de-escalation. Seasonality is supportive, but elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and macro fragility increase the odds that August 2026 diverges from precedent.
 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 25, 2026) - Can Trump Defy August’s Bearish Reputation Again?

 

S&P 500 2026 vs. best-correlated year: 2007 (84%).  

 

SOX, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 Annual Seasonal Patterns 1995-2025.

August Stock Market Performance 2001-2021.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Sergey Tarassov (July 14, 2026) - Kitchin Cycle Signals S&P 500 Rise Into Late 2026.

Jack Gillen (1979) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices.

July Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Historically one of the market's stronger months, July typically sees a consistent upward trend across all major indexes (solid lines), often driven by optimism ahead of second-quarter earnings. Over the last 21 years (2005–2025), gains have built from a strong first trading day, with the NASDAQ leading at an average gain of just over 3%. While the S&P 500, DJIA, and Russell indexes also show robust positive trends, their momentum generally slows after mid-month.

Historically strong and earnings-driven, July favors broad index gains—especially the NASDAQ—
but midterm election years routinely trigger underperformance and small-cap volatility.

However, midterm election years tell a different story (dashed lines). Performance during these periods is notably weaker and more volatile: the DJIA and S&P 500 manage only modest gains, while small-caps (Russell 2000) historically struggle the most, often finishing July in negative territory. Ultimately, while seasonal trends favor equities, the midterm backdrop warns that volatility can emerge unexpectedly.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 25, 2026) - Strong July Trends Could Face a Midterm-Year Test. 

July Seasonal Stock Market Performance (2000-2020).

 

 

 July is historically one of the year's strongest months, ranking third since 1950 for both the
DJIA and S&P 500 during midterm election years with average gains of 1.6% and 1.3%.

 

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally—last 3 days of June through first 9 of July—
has gained an avg 2.5% since 1985, hitting in 32 of 41 years (78%).

 

Second Half 2026 Outlook.
 

In US midterm years (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022), July delivers the broadest

market strength of the second half, with every major sector posting positive

average returns (S&P 500 +3.65%), led by Technology (+4.11%),

 Energy (+4.26%), and Consumer Discretionary (+4.10%).  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.  

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Jack Gillen (June 23, 2026) - Important Solar and Lunar Degrees for Trading US Stock Indices. 

David Hickson (June 15, 2026) - Hurst Cycles Update: SPX, NDX, ASX, DAX, Gold, BTC. 

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting. 

Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500.

NASDAQ's 12-Day Midyear Rally from June 25 to July 14, 2026 | Jeff Hirsch

As July approaches, attention turns to NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally, a seasonal pattern running from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June (Thursday, June 25) through the ninth trading day of July (Tuesday, July 14). 

Since 1985, the rally has averaged a 2.5% gain (2.9% median) and finished higher in 32 of 41 years, a 78% success rate. Its strongest performances include gains of 10.4% in 1999, 10.0% in 2000, and 9.6% in 2016, while recent advances reached 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, and 3.3% last year. 

The pattern has persisted through bull and bear markets, recessions, and recoveries, likely reflecting quarter-end rebalancing, new-quarter capital inflows, and improving sentiment ahead of earnings season. Although it has failed nine times since 1985, its four-decade record makes it one of NASDAQ’s most durable and reliable seasonal tendencies.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 22, 2026) - NASDAQ's Midyear Rally: A Seasonal Opportunity Approaches.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 2, 2026) - June Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.  

Larry Williams (May 26, 2026) - NASDAQ, DJIA & Bonds: Next Bullish Wave May Be Starting.