Time ▾ Price ▴ Research: Seasonality

Showing posts with label Seasonality. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

April 2025 Seasonal Pattern of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

Since 1950, April has shown steady market gains from the first trading day to the last, with occasional

minor dips. In post-election years, April starts weaker, but the dip is brief and shallow.

As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, April has historically been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.

In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 27, 2025) - Taxes Schmaxes – April Strong Open to Close – Deadline Impact Fades.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2025) - April is the second-best month for S&P 500 and DJIA.

Other Bullish Scenarios:

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023).

Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

Bearish Scenarios:

Next 20-day Hurst cycle due to bottom around April 8 (Tue)(± 1 TD).

FINRA Margin Debt vs S&P 500 Real Values, suggesting risk as of late March 2025.

Potential opportunity shorting the S&P 500 in
the next major downturn over the coming weeks.

Trigger Trades, March 27, 2025.

Cosmic Cluster Days | April 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. However, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows—also within the 'noise channel'—may correlate with or coincide with market movements and reversals.

Cosmic Cluster Days | Composite Line | Noise Channel — — — Solunar Rhythm

○ = Full Moon | ● = New Moon | ▴ = Lunar Declination max North / ▾ = max South | 立春 = Solar Terms

Cosmic Cluster Days in April 2025:

Mar 22 (Sat) | Apr 04 (Fri) | Apr 18 (Fri) | Apr 30 (Wed) | May 25 (Sun)

Partial Solar Eclipse (New Moon in Aries) on Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 6:46 am EDT.

Mars at Aphelion on Wednesday, April 16, 2025 at 18:00 EDT.

Mercury at Aphelion on Thursday, April 17, 2025 at 10:00 EDT.

Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Monday, April 21, 2025 at 15:00 EDT.

For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].

Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].

Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE].

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE].

Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].

Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].

The SoLunar Rhythm in April 2025.

Selected geocentric events in April 2025 (EST/EDT).

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles):

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025):

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025):

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs.

Support is now 5800.

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%.

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March,

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026,

below the October 2023 low.

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline.

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.