Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade │ Jeff Hirsch

Thanksgiving [Thursday, November 28] kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2025 STA p. 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2025 STA p. 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

 » Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. «

And of course, the "Santa Claus Rally," (2025 STA p. 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 20, 2024) - Feast On Small Caps Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade.

 

 » From November 5 to December 31, the average return of the S&P 500 has been 2.68%; Nasdaq 100 5.53%, 

and Russell 2000 5.7%. In election years S&P 500 3.38%; Nasdaq 100 0.79%, and Russell 2000 7.94%. «

 Goldman Sachs fund flows guru Scott Rubner, November 6, 2024. See also [HERE].

 

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Hurst Cycles; Steve Miller, November 21, 2024. See also [HERE].

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929 │ Tom DeMark

The stock market has been charging along for months. Perhaps not for much longer. Tom DeMark, an award-winning technical analyst who has advised investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Leon Cooperman, and Steven A. Cohen, believes a market top is imminent.

DeMark highlights that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, from its December 1914 low to its September 1929 high, rallied 624%. From the 2009 low to this week’s high, the Dow has gained 587%. He notes that the current price action mirrors the patterns from the earlier period.  

 

DeMark focuses on trend exhaustion, with the guiding principle that "markets top on good news and bottom on bad." He uses sequences of 9 and 13 daily, weekly, or monthly bars, which need not be consecutive but must exceed the performance from 4 sessions ago in the 9-model or 2 sessions ago in the 13-model. For more information on DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup, visit his website [HERE], and [HERE].

 DJIA (1913-1933, and 2008-current; monthly bars).

"On the daily charts of the Dow and S&P, two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal."

DeMark suggests the Dow’s optimistic upside potential is 47,045, and for the S&P 500, it is 6,118.

"This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown."

 

 DJIA (2019-2024; monthly bars).

He also compares the current rally to the one from 2020 to early 2022. The multi-month advance from late 2022 shows a potential upside projection identical to that earlier move.  

 

 DJIA (Q4 2024; daily bars).

For the S&P 500, DeMark reports that the monthly sequential model countdown is at 12 or 13, with an upside potential of 6,118. The S&P 500 closed Thursday, November 14, at 5,949, unable to maintain gains above the 6,000 mark. 

 

On the daily charts, both the Dow and S&P are at sequential countdown 11, meaning two new all-time highs are needed to trigger a sell signal. This could lead to a 5% to 10% pullback or a full breakdown. "The past two weeks' rally has been precarious. A sudden halt in buying—without selling pressure—could undermine the rally and shift the market into a sellers’ phase."

 

"While good news may last until Trump's inauguration, once buying interest fades, any subsequent rallies are likely to be short-lived." 

  Nvidia (February-November 2024; daily bars).

"A new closing high would mark the end of its rally."

DeMark is also cautious about Nvidia, the key microchip maker driving the AI revolution, which reports results next week. The stock is at countdown 12, and a new closing high would mark the end of its rally. DeMark projects Nvidia’s upside potential at $154.50 but warns the downside risk "could be significant."

 

Reference:
Steve Goldstein (November 15, 2024) - Tom DeMark says the stock market is nearing a top as he draws 1929 parallels.

 

 DeMark's Sequential 9-13 Setup.

 

See also:
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.
Sergey Tarassov (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

 

 S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for the Presidential Election Cycle 2024 - 2027.
4 Year Presidential Cycle in line with the Decennial Cycle. 

Trends and turning points are more important than levels. 60-, 80-, or 120-Year Cycle?

U.S. Stock Market Seasonality of the Week Before Thanksgiving │ Jeff Hirsch

DJIA has a fair track record over the last 31 years, rising 20 times the week before Thanksgiving (November 18-22) with an average gain of 0.44% in all years. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks are not as strong and there has been more weakness the past seven years. Since 2017, DJIA has advanced just once during the week before Thanksgiving.

Week Before Thanksgiving: DJIA Up 20 of 31, but Down in 6 of the Last 7.

 

Over the last 31 years, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have the same record, up 18 times, with similar average gains of 0.20% and 0.23% respectively. Russell 2000 has been the weakest, up 16 times with an average gain of 0.08%. Last year, the week before Thanksgiving, enjoyed solid across-the-board gains as the market recovered from a correction.

Should weakness materialize next week, it may be a solid set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and/or during typical November end-of-month strength.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 15, 2024) - Week before Thanksgiving DJIA Up 20 of 31, But Down 6 of last 7. 

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Barometers │ Turning Points in 2025

Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Indices for 2025 (EST/EDT).

 

Q4 2024.

 

Q1 2025.

 

Q2 2025. 

 

Q3 2025.  

 

Q4 2025.  

The Bradley Barometer (also known as Bradley Siderograph or simply Bradley Index) is a financial astrology indicator created by Donald Albert Bradley (1925-1974) in the 1940s. Bradley developed a barometer that combines planetary transits. By assigning positive values to favorable transits and negative values to unfavorable ones, he created a weighted net sum oscillator graph.

Donald A. Bradley (1948) - Stock Market Prediction. 

The Planetary Barometer and How to Use it.

The equation for the Bradley Barometer indicator is calculated as follows:

[ (5) × (Long Term Value Sums + Declination Value Sums) ] + Middle Term Value Sums

The factor of five in the formula gives greater weight to (1) planetary aspects considered "Long Term" and (2) declinations. The Middle Term values represent planetary aspects that are important but receive less weight than the Long Terms. There are a total of 36 planetary aspects considered in the Barometer, broken down as follows:

• Long Term Aspects: 10 of the 36 aspects are classified as Long Term. These aspects generally involve the slower-moving outer planets (e.g., Jupiter, Saturn), and Bradley believed they should carry greater weight.
• Middle Term Aspects: 26 of the 36 aspects are classified as Middle Term. These aspects include the Sun and the faster-moving planets, from Mercury to Mars.
• Short Term Aspects: None of the 36 aspects are classified as Short Term. Bradley considered aspects involving the Moon to be Short Term, affecting only a few hours. Therefore, Short Term aspects are not incorporated in the Bradley Barometer, as they are not expected to influence medium- to long-term market behavior.

The slower-moving planets with longer synodic periods (e.g., Jupiter and other outer planets) compose the Long Term aspects, and these receive five times the weight of the Middle Term aspects. A synodic period between two planets is the time it takes for them to return to the same relative position in the sky (i.e., their conjunction).

 

The original geocentric Bradley Barometer takes planetary declination into account—planets higher in the sky above the horizon are given more positive values, while those lower in the sky, below the horizon, are assigned negative values. According to Donald Bradley, "The value of the declination factor is half the algebraic sum of the given declinations of Venus and Mars—northern declination considered positive and southern declination negative." It is also important to note that Bradley used a multiplier when calculating the value of declinations for the overall barometer.

Regarding this multiplier, Bradley stated that the Long Term and declination factors "may be given considerably more weight by multiplying them by 3, 4, or 5 times, depending on experimentation." Therefore, in computing the Bradley Barometer, one adds together (1) the sum of all the planetary aspects of the Middle Terms, and (2) the Declinations and Long Term Factors, adjusted by a multiplier, such as 3X, 4X, or 5X. 

 

The heliocentric index is an adaptation of the original geocentric Barometer concept, using heliocentric planetary positions instead. 

 

Donald A. Bradley, 1945.

Although there is no known physical correlation between these celestial movements and market behavior, the Bradley Barometer has been shown to correlate well with market turning points. However, regarding the limitations of his astro-indicator, Donald Bradley himself remarked the following:

 

"At no time must the reader gain the impression that a siderograph, as such, is a prediction of what the stock market will actually do. Nevertheless, observation proves that basic reversals in collective attitudes, clearly predicted by the line, are inevitably mirrored in stock averages. A limitation of the siderograph is that it cannot be construed as a forecast of secular trends. In statistical terminology, 'lines of regression' fitted to the market course and to the potential should not be expected to completely agree, for reasons obvious to anyone with keen business sense or commercial training."

Bradley indices are often misinterpreted, with many linking the slopes directly to market trends. Tops and bottoms can signal potential turning points in price, whether a peak or a trough. The importance of these turn dates is not dependent on the magnitude of the change before or after the turn, meaning that even moderate shifts can be just as significant as larger ones.

Abbreviations: geo = Geocentric Bradley Index; helio = Heliocentric Bradley Index; (L) = low; (H) = high. Expect the exactitude of turning points to be within ±1 day.

Geocentric Turning Points: 

2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    

2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    

2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    

2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    

2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    

2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    

2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    

2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    

2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    

2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    

2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    

2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    

2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    

2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    

2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    

2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    

Heliocentric Turning Points:    

2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    

2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)

2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)

2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)

2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)

2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)

2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)

2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)

2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)

2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)

2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)

2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)

2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)

2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)

2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)

2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)

2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)

2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)

2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)

2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)

2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)

2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)

Geocentric and Heliocentric Turning Points:    

2024 Dec 03 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 08 (Sun) = geo (L)    
2024 Dec 09 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 12 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 15 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 16 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 18 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2024 Dec 19 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 20 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2024 Dec 22 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2024 Dec 27 (Fri) = geo (L)    

2025 Jan 10 (Fri) = helio (H)    

2025 Jan 22 (Wed) = helio (L)    

2025 Feb 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Feb 02 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Feb 06 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 08 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Feb 21 (Fri) = geo (L)    
2025 Feb 22 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Feb 26 (Wed) = helio (L)    

2025 Mar 01 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Mar 05 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 10 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 15 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 19 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 20 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 24 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Mar 25 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Mar 28 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Mar 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Apr 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Apr 09 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Apr 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Apr 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 May 04 (Sun) = geo (H)    

2025 May 14 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 May 15 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 May 18 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 May 20 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 May 27 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 May 28 (Wed) = helio (H)    

2025 Jun 01 (Sun) = helio (L)    

2025 Jun 04 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 05 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Jun 06 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jun 14 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 16 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2025 Jun 17 (Tue) = geo (L)    
2025 Jun 20 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Jul 01 (Tue) = helio (H)    

2025 Jul 04 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 05 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 11 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 19 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = geo (H)    
2025 Jul 20 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Jul 29 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Jul 30 (Wed) = geo (L)    

2025 Aug 01 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Aug 03 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 05 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 09 (Sat) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 11 (Mon) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 13 (Wed) = geo (H)    
2025 Aug 14 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 16 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 18 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 20 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 25 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2025 Aug 29 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Aug 31 (Sun) = helio (H)    

2025 Sep 01 (Mon) = helio (L)    

2025 Sep 02 (Tue) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 03 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Sep 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 11 (Thu) = geo (H)    
2025 Sep 14 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 21 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Sep 24 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Sep 26 (Fri) = helio (H)    

2025 Oct 02 (Thu) = helio (L)    

2025 Oct 05 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 08 (Wed) = geo (L)    
2025 Oct 15 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 24 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Oct 28 (Tue) = geo (H)    
2025 Oct 29 (Wed) = helio (L)    
2025 Oct 30 (Thu) = helio (H)    

2025 Nov 02 (Sun) = helio (L)    

2025 Nov 06 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 07 (Fri) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 08 (Sat) = geo (L)    
2025 Nov 09 (Sun) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 13 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 14 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 16 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 20 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Nov 22 (Sat) = geo (H)    
2025 Nov 25 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Nov 29 (Sat) = helio (H)    

2025 Dec 05 (Fri) = helio (L)    

2025 Dec 10 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 22 (Mon) = geo (L)    
2025 Dec 23 (Tue) = helio (L)    
2025 Dec 25 (Thu) = helio (H)    
2025 Dec 27 (Sat) = helio (L)    

2026 Jan 02 (Fri) = helio (H)    

2026 Jan 08 (Thu) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 16 (Fri) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 17 (Sat) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 19 (Mon) = geo (H)    
2026 Jan 21 (Wed) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 25 (Sun) = helio (L)    
2026 Jan 26 (Mon) = helio (H)    
2026 Jan 31 (Sat) = helio (L)    

 

Additional information on Bradley Indices and Turning Points from previous years.

Cross-check Bradley Turn dates with Cosmic Cluster Days.

The New Moon typically marks the beginning of a cycle, while the Full Moon signifies its completion.
In bull markets, New Moons are often bottoms, and Full Moons are tops.
In bear markets, New Moons are often tops, and Full Moons are bottoms.

Major news releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC, etc.) and options expiration dates (especially Quad and Triple Witching) can delay or disrupt typical cyclical market behavior and astro signals.

 

Price always moves from Consolidation to Expansion, never from Consolidation to Reversal or from Consolidation to Retracement. After an Expansion, two possible scenarios can occur: either a Retracement or a Reversal, followed by another Expansion or Consolidation.

 

Glenn W. Brier and Donald A. Bradley (1964) - The Lunar Synodical Period and Precipitation in the United States.

 Golden Mean between Rainfall and Lunar Phases.

Tom McClellan (November 7, 2024) - New York Rain and Stocks - Silly, But Accurate.

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 

 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 

Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18. 

Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.

Winter began on November 7; Light Snow on November 22.  

US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.

Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

See also: 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns.

Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish │ Jeff Hirsch

With a clear winner decided, the history of market gains from Presidential Election Day to year-end is encouraging. As shown in the tables above and below, the market tends to rally from Election Day to year-end, with a few exceptions due to exogenous factors.

 DJIA up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%.
S&P 500 up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%.
NASDAQ up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%.
Russell 2000 up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Profit-taking at the end of 1984 kept stocks flat after the rally from the July bear market bottom, driven by anticipation of Reagan’s landslide reelection victory. The infamous undecided election roiled stocks at the end of 2000 amid the dot-com bear market of 2000-2001. The Great Financial Crisis and the 2007-2009 generational bear market caused a further plunge in late 2008, fueled by shrinking economic data and uncertainty surrounding a change in party and the incoming, unknown Obama administration. The escalating European Debt Crisis kept the stock market on edge in late 2012.

 » Bullish update: We have a winner. «

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 6, 2024.

Overall, from Election Day to year-end, the DJIA is up 72.2% of the time, with an average gain of 2.38%. The S&P 500 is up 66.7% of the time, with an average gain of 2.03%. The NASDAQ is up 76.9% of the time, with an average gain of 1.50%, and the Russell 2000 is up 61.5% of the time, with an average gain of 4.93%.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points │ Jeff Hirsch

The first 5-6 trading days are typically bullish, followed by weakness in the week before Thanksgiving. The DJIA and S&P 500 strength has shifted to mirror the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the most bullish days occurring at the beginning and end of the month.

 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch, November 5, 2024

 

 November Performance in “All Years” (1930-2015) and “Election Years” (1932-2012) 

— Jeff Hirsch, November 15, 2016.

 

November Market Performance (2001-2021) — Jeff Hirsch,  October 20, 2022.

 

 S&P 500 and Nasdaq average performance during the presidential election week.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (2011) - S&P 500 Projection Chart from 2009 to 2025.
Ryan Detrick (October 28, 2024) - Best Six-Month Stretch for the S&P 500 Begins in November.

 

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern for November of the Election Year 2024.
Alternative approach: 4-Year Presidential Cycle in Line with the Decennial Cycle.