DJIA 2026 vs Top Three Midterm Correlated Years Since 1886 | @Fiorente2

Plotting all 35 midterm-election years for the DJIA since 1886, the spread of outcomes is enormous: In difficult midterm years, the DJIA has fallen by as much as 25% (1966), while in stronger years it has gained up to 45%. The average of ±2% is likely the most realistic expectation right now, given the current environment.

 

Chart 1: DJIA 2026 versus the Top Three Midterm Correlated Years:

1898 = approx. +20% (correlation 0.764); 1926 = ended the year flat (0.716); 1966 = approx. -20% (0.826). 

However, to get a sharper view, the three midterm years with the highest correlation to 2026 DJIA performance (from January through last week) were selected and charted: 1966, 1926, and 1898 (Chart 1).  

• 1966 has the strongest correlation (0.826).  
• 1898 (0.764) is the bullish outlier: if 2026 follows that path, the market could go bazooka from here.  
• 1926 (0.716) sits in the middle, and curiously, its path aligns with the average of the top three.

 

Chart 2: DJIA 2026 vs 1966 and Top Three Composites. In 1966, the DJIA printed its yearly low in early October.

  

Each of these years carries its own resonance: 

• In 1898, the US was just emerging as a global power through victory in the Spanish-American War. 
• In 1926, an industrial revolution was reshaping the economy. 
• In 1966, tariffs, war, inflation, and a punishing midterm election defined the landscape.  

The bias points toward 1966 (Chart 2): The correlation is the strongest, and the themes are too close to ignore: tariffs, a costly overseas conflict with no clear exit, inflation concerns, and a midterm election that may punish the incumbent party. 

 

Reference:
@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - A US Midterm forecast on the DJIA.

 

Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has risen to a record above $370B, underscoring a scarcity of attractive valuations and ongoing reductions in holdings such as Apple. Warren Buffett has described recent market pullbacks as modest relative to historical downturns, drawing parallels to the elevated cash levels he maintained ahead of the 1999 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis—periods when major equities ultimately fell by 80–90%.

See also:

@Fiorente2 (April 20, 2026) - An Update on the DJIA and the Jupiter-Saturn Cycle.

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 23, 2026) - Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle Pattern: Q1 Shock. Q2-Q4 Awe.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices.

Namzes (April 19, 2026) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low.

S&P 500 After Rapid 10% Gains: +17% Avg One-Year Return | Alex Krainer

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.

Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.

A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multiple instances of these "rapid +10% bounces," marked by green and red arrows. In most cases, these moves were followed by continued upside, though there were notable exceptions—such as the period around 2000.

 

Alex Krainer argues that the current setup differs meaningfully from the 2000  episode. He notes the absence of broadly synchronized overbought conditions among megacap stocks today, and emphasizes that the more significant declines in 2000 occurred only after the index had already fallen below its 40-week moving average.
 

S&P 500 RSI readings above 70 have led to pullbacks in 8 of the last 10 cases over two years, with the other two resulting in flat consolidation. The daily chart (May 2024–April 2026) marks these signals with red arrows for pullbacks and one green arrow, alongside recent price action near 7,000. This suggests an 80% likelihood of a near-term pullback, though prior corrections since the 2025 rally have been relatively mild.

Reference:
Alex Krainer (April 16, 2026) - Rapid S&P 500 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. 

 

Jeffrey Hirsch notes that the S&P 500's 7.57% gain in the first 10 trading days of April 2026 ranks as the second-strongest start to April since 1950.

Gains averaged +10.8% for the rest of the year, with full-year returns positive in 91.7% of cases (+16.2% avg.).

Historically, such powerful early-April momentum has been a bullish signal: in 20 of 24 comparable cases (83.3%), the market delivered further gains over the remainder of the year, with an average advance of +10.8%. Full-year returns were positive in 22 of those 24 instances (91.7%), averaging +16.2%. Hirsch’s data also segments April starts into performance tiers, with 2026 firmly in the top group—where subsequent returns have consistently outpaced those seen in the middle and bottom tiers.

DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks Since 1982 | Jeff Hirsch

April's monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board, with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 28 times in 44 years on monthly expiration day, with an average gain of 0.20%. 

 

DJIA has risen in 34 of the past 44 April options-expiration weeks (next week), with an average gain of 1.00%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also show strong seasonality, averaging weekly gains of 0.77% and 0.76%. Losses in 2022, 2024, and 2025 have tempered the longer-term averages. 

 DJIA Up in 77.3% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

 

 

S&P 500 Up in 65.9% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

S&P 500 has a similar record, also with 28 advances and an average advance of 0.15% on monthly expiration day. Monthly expiration day was trending solidly bullish after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018, but took hits in the 2022 bear market, 2024, and in 2025 due to Liberation Day tariff uncertainty.

NASDAQ Up in 63.6% of April OpEx Weeks since 1982.

 

Monthly expiration week also has a bullish track record over the past 44 years. Average weekly gains are +1.00% for DJIA, +0.77% for S&P 500, and +0.76% for NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April monthly expiration also persists during the week after, although average gains have not been as strong, with selling pressure rising (from 2018 to 2022). However, strength has returned since 2023. NASDAQ jumped 6.73% in the week after in 2025.

► April seasonality strong: 2nd-best month for DJIA and S&P; 4th for NASDAQ.
► April 2026 started solidly (+0.52% DJIA, +1.98% NASDAQ) despite geopolitical tension, rising energy costs, April 15 tax deadline.
► Historically, early April outperformed—since 1994, strength shifted to second half.
► Post–April 15 stronger (especially NASDAQ, Russell 2000).

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 10, 2026) - DJIA Up 77.3% of the Time During April Monthly Expiration Week since 1982.

 Jeffrey A. Hirsch (April 7, 2026) - Income Tax Deadline, Earnings Season & Iran War: Second Half of April Historically Better.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

S&P 500 in Wyckoff Markdown Phase | Major Low in July

In Wyckoff's Distribution Schematic, the S&P 500 (ES) has completed the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and the Test of Upthrust (TOU) sequence near the upper boundary of the trading range (Phase D). 

 The blue circle marks the current location of the S&P 500.

 

Following the Last Point of Supply (LPSY – Return to ICE) and the Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW), the S&P transitioned into clear Failure to Improve and Markdown type price action (Phase E) outside the trading range (Phases A to D). The decline is characterized by repeated failures to reclaim prior support levels, expanding supply, and the absence of sustained demand sponsorship. 

 

The Eternal Recurrence of the Same Wyckoff Cycle.

Any rally and retracement in April will likely be choppy and shallow and reflect Re-Distribution within the current Markdown Phase, which is expected to resume into July or even October. Measured from the April 2025 low to the January 2026 high, the absolute minimum downside target for the ES markdown is the 50% retracement near 5,940; however, in 2026 a deeper decline of 20%+ to around 5,350 or 4,830 is far more likely.

 

See also:

Alex Krainer (March 27, 2026) - Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

TPR (March 19, 2026) - 20-Week Cycle Low in the S&P 500 and US Stock Indexes | Major Low in July.

April Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Over the past 21 years (solid lines in the chart below), April has exhibited a pattern of steady gains starting around April 7 (Tue)(Trading Day 5) and continuing through the end of the month, with only minor fluctuations along the way. Overall, it has generally finished positive across the board.

 

Midterm election years since 1950 (dashed lines) show strength from April 7 (Tue) through mid-April only, followed by choppy trading that typically ends the month flat or in negative territory.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 25, 2026) - April Weaker in Midterm Election Years.

 

S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

  

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Nicholas D. Savino (April 1, 2026) - April 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low | Branimir Vojcic

The S&P 500 cycle composite of the dominant 339, 185, 124, and 79-day cycles forecasts a reversal by late March. This move is expected to manifest as a "dead cat bounce," peaking near 6,500 in late May before a projected decline into October.

 

 

Bill Sarubbi notes that post-OPEX weeks in March are traditionally bearish, projecting a low for the S&P 500 and US stocks between March 26 (Thu) and April 7 (Tue).

 

Sarubbi's S&P 500 cycle composite forecast for 2026 started at a January peak, followed by a choppy decline through June, punctuated by a brief April recovery. After a late-summer bounce, the market hits its annual low in late September/early October. The year concludes with a sharp rally through December, carrying bullish momentum into 2027. 

 

Reference:

Branimir Vojcic (March 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Cycles Update.

Bill Sarubbi (March 20, 2026) - Post-OPEX weeks in March.

 

The best timed trade of 2026.

US Stock Indexes Trigger Rare March-December Low Indicator | Jeff Hirsch

Originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator is based on the Dow closing below its December closing low in the first quarter of the New Year. DJIA’s December closing low was 47,289.33 on 12/1/2025.

  

See the Historical Analogue 1966 vs. 2026
in @Fiorente2's "The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited."

 

The indicator also applies to the S&P 500, which closed below its December closing low of 6,721.43 (set on 12/17/2025). Historically, years when the S&P 500’s December Low Indicator was breached alongside a down January Barometer were weaker years. When the January Barometer was positive and the December Low was crossed, years tended to be stronger — which is the situation we find ourselves in today.

 

When the market has closed below its December closing low in the first quarter of the year, the market has dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for the DJIA from the trigger point. Now that the December Low Indicator has been triggered on both the DJIA and S&P 500, some caution is in order.

 

Why This March Trigger Is Rare

Of the 36 December Low Indicator triggers on the S&P 500, this is only the fourth to occur in March, and the sixth among the 39 DJIA triggers. We’ve broken out the S&P DLI triggers by month in the accompanying tables above.

 

It’s not surprising that most January and February triggers were accompanied by a down January Barometer. Whereas all four March DLI triggers — including yesterday’s — came in years when the January Barometer was positive.

Here’s how the three trigger months compare historically:

• January triggers (24 occurrences): Average further decline of 12.92%; full year up 14 of 24 times, average gain of 1.30%
• February triggers (8 occurrences): The worst group — average further decline of 17.26%; down 6 of 8 full years, average loss of 8.13%
• March triggers (3 previous occurrences): The mildest — average further decline of 8.12%; one year up, two down, average full-year loss of 3.70%

The historical data suggests March triggers carry less downside risk than those in January or February — a meaningful distinction given today’s trigger.

 

The January Barometer Still Points Higher

When the S&P 500 January Barometer is positive — as it was this year — the full year is up 41 of 46 years (89.1% of the time) for an average gain of 16.95%. The next 11 months are up 87.0% of the time for an average gain of 12.24%.

 

When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of 1.75%, and the next 11 months average a paltry 2.07% gain.

 

Bottom Line

While the current situation suggests the market is likely to go lower in the near term, the positive January Barometer and the broader fundamental and macro backdrop remain supportive. When the indexes and your spirits are down and contrary sentiment indicators reach extreme bearish levels — a VIX above 40, Investors Intelligence Bearish % exceeding Bullish % — that’s historically the point at which the market turns higher again. Stay cautious in the near term, but keep the longer-term odds in perspective.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 13, 2026) - Iran Conflict Triggers a Rare March December Low Indicator.

 

What happens once the SPY closes down four weeks in a row.

 

What happens once the weekly RSI(2) closes at 5 or below. 

See also:

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026. In: The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

March Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years | Jeff Hirsch

Beginning on March 2 (Mon) (Trading Day 1), the US stock market historically follows two distinct paths. Over the recent 21-year period (solid lines in the chart below), March tends to open positively with modest gains through March 4 (Wed) (TD 3) before weakness leads to a sharp dip around March 9 (Mon) (TD 6). While indices typically move higher from March 16 (Mon) (TD 11), the NASDAQ and S&P 500 usually lead this recovery into the final close on March 31 (Tue) (TD 22).

 

March generally finishes positive across all major indices.

  

In contrast, Midterm Election years since 1950 (dotted lines) show significantly greater historical strength, potentially as a rebound from a typically tepid February. This cycle produces a front-loaded rally where R2K small caps flip from laggards to leaders, often outpacing S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ. Strength generally persists until the Spring Equinox, reaching a seasonal peak on March 20 (Fri) (TD 15). After this point, indices tend to lose momentum and close out the month with choppy trading. Despite these differing mid-month trajectories, March has a 64% win rate, generally finishing positive across all indices.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - March’s Seasonal Pattern – Early Strength Persists Longer in Midterm Years. 

 

 S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

 

Detrended S&P 500 Seasonality.

 

Detrended VIX Seasonality (see also HERE). 

 

S&P 500 First 10 Days and Last 10 Days of the Month (1928-2024).

 

 S&P 500's Average Daily Return & Percent of Days Positive (1928-2024).

 

 DJIA (daily bars).

 

CNN Fear & Greed Index.

Bank of America's Bull & Bear Index hit 9.3 on February 24, crossing the contrarian "sell" threshold above 8, indicating excessive optimism among global fund managers. Historically, such readings preceded median three-month drawdowns of 5.5% for the S&P 500, and 8.6% for the Nasdaq.

 See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Branimir Vojcic (February 23, 2026) - VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - March 2026 S&P 500 Forecast.

S&P 500: Hurst 10-Day Cycle Low Set to Hit Friday's CPI News Release

S&P 500 (3 hour candles): 10-Day cycle (currently ≈7.6 days) low due Friday, February 13 (CPI News Release).

 

 Nicolas Savino update, February 12.

 

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

50% DJIA Gain Possible from 2026 Low to 2027 High | Jeff Hirsch

Historical data going back to 1914 shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has typically fallen about 20% from its peak in the year following a presidential election to its trough during the subsequent midterm year. Weakness has been most persistent in Q2 and Q3 of Midterm years. Regardless of the precise level reached, the advance that normally follows is a very attractive entry point for position traders (see tab and chart below).

% Change in DJIA between Midterm year Low and High of following year, 1914-2023.

Within the Four-Year Presidential Cycle, the most favorable phase begins late in the Midterm year: The strongest consecutive two quarters historically run from Q4 of the Midterm year into the Q1 of the Pre-Election year, delivering average gains of 46.3% for the Dow.

 

  S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, 1949-2024.

Q2 of the Pre-Election year is also notably strong—ranking as the third-best quarter of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle—effectively extending this high-performance window to three quarters, from Midterm Q4 2026 through Pre-Election Q2 2027. 

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 11, 2026) - January Barometer Rules: 2026 Midterm Year Forecast Update (webinar). 

 

Q4 2026: Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Presidential Cycle.

Assuming the future will be but an averaged past (1973-2026).   

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years. 

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 29, 2025) - 2026 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Patterns of US Indices. 

Bill Sarubbi (January 23, 2026) - 2026 Market Forecast: S&P 500, Crude, Notes, Gold, and Bitcoin.

Ned Davis Research (December 31, 2025) - 2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.

2026 Sensitive Degrees of the Sun for the NYSE | Jack Gillen

 Jack Gillen derived these solar zodiac positions as aspects to the NYSE natal chart, cast

for May 17, 1792 (8:52 am LMT) in New York, NY, using Geocentric Tropical coordinates.

  

» The Sun's position by itself in relation to the stock market can show you trends that are more or less

active for each year, as the Sun degrees are generally fixed. They fall on about the same date

every year. So this is why some periods of the year would be more of a pattern. «

 

The market will always be influenced by the Sun pattern, and it will happen year after year. You will find from January to the last two weeks in July the market prices will be upwards, and in the latter part of the year, after the influence of Leo, the market will be down in price. This is the average trend that will always occur. This affects volume as well as price itself.

However, it is important that you realize the influence of the Sun's complete cycle. Also, any corporation will be affected by certain cycles of the Sun through these signs. It would be important to backtrack about twelve years during the pattern of the Sun's cycle in order to see the pattern on which the company is being activated as far as the solar cycle.

■ The period of the Sun in Aries is usually from March 20 through April 19. 

■ The Sun in the sign of Taurus is usually from April 20 through May 20. 

■ The Sun's transit in the sign of Gemini is generally from May 21 through June 20. 

■ The Sun's transit through the sign of Cancer is from June 21 through July 22. 

■ The Sun's transit in the sign of Leo is usually from July 23 through August 22.
■ The Sun's transit in the sign of Virgo is generally from August 23 through September 22. 

■ The Sun's transit in the sign of Libra is from September 23 through October 22, 

■ through the sign of Scorpio from October 23 through November 21, 

■ through the sign of Sagittarius from November 22 through December 21, 

■ through the sign of Capricorn from December 22 through January 19, 

■ through the sign of Aquarius from January 20 through February 18, 

■ through the sign of Pisces from February 19 through March 19. 

 

These are twelve signs with the transit of the Sun. Again, let me stress the importance of the aspect of the Sun during these periods. If it involves a combination that relates to panic, crashes, recession, or depression, then these months will be more intensified as far as the effect. If the transit is in a trine or good aspect, then the movement will be less severe than under normal conditions. 

 

Quoted from:

Jack Gillen (1979) - The Key to Speculation on the New York Stock Exchange.

 

 Dates and times calculated for New York (EST/EDT).

 

positive = NYSE should reach a low and turn up.

negative = NYSE should reach a high and turn down.

neutral = expect small range or inside day. 

 

[ In general, however, these dates should be viewed simply as potential short-term market turn-days. ]  

 

S&P 500 (2016 and 2017) versus Gillen’s sensitive degrees of the Sun.

 

S&P 500 Average Daily Performance and %-Probability (1928-2024). 

See also: 

Solar Ephemeris for 2026.

  Jack Gillen (1979) - Sensitive Degrees of the Moon.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (January 27, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.