The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Pattern in US Stocks | Lars von Thienen

The weekly S&P 500 shows that the nominal 180-week cycle, currently at 177 weeks, is in an early topping stage. This long-awaited time cycle has been monitored since the end of 2023 and has been cited as a key driver for the upturn lasting into this window. Now that we have arrived at this point, we need to pay close attention to the shorter-term cycles and technical indicators.

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

Before moving to the daily cycle analysis, it is worth noting that the cyclic-tuned RSI indicator has reached the upper band, indicating a "bull exhaustion" mode. This condition can turn within days into a "bulls tired" and/or "bulls exit" state, signaling that we are primed for a longer-term reversal. The same weekly cycles situation can be observed on the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ weekly cycles | October 23, 2024

Let's now examine the daily cycles, starting with the S&P 500 model.

 » The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. «

 S&P 500 daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The main cycles are the 192-day and the harmonic 89-day trading cycles. The daily composite model suggests a topping pattern either now or potentially by the end of the year. The cRSI indicator shows we are nearing the upper band, which could also signal a final year-end rally before both daily cycles align with the downward-trending weekly cycle noted earlier. A similar perspective can be observed in the Nasdaq daily data.

Nasdaq Composite daily dominant cycles model | October 23, 2024

The shorter-term daily cycles with lengths of 80 and 200 trading days on the Nasdaq model are rolling over now and will likely continue into the end of 2024. These cycles are also coming into alignment with the next long-term downward swing, which is in sync with the long-term cycles shown earlier.

It's worth noting that we're seeing a divergence forming, as the market experienced a clear topping pattern in June of this year: At that time, the composite model peaked while the cRSI was breaking down below the upper band, issuing a sell signal. The price never went back to achieve a higher high, and the cRSI is indicating an even bigger divergence between the price action and the signal line. The technical indicators shown below have been adjusted to the cycles detected and mentioned above. The highlighted red or green shaded areas indicate that the higher timeframe - here the weekly S&P 500 - is also taken into consideration. 

S&P 500 - cRSI cyclic indicator | October 23, 2024

The multi-timeframe cyclic technical indicator is showing a clear divergence between price and the signal. While the weekly chart confirms another overbought situation at the time the divergence signal emerges, this provides technical confirmation of a possible top in place. A similar technical condition can be observed on the NASDAQ.

 

Nasdaq Composite | October 23, 2024

Quoted from:
Lars von Thienen (October 23, 2024) - The next wave on the horizon for the US stock markets – it is time to prepare.

See also:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

Sergey Tarassov  (September 8, 2024) - Kitchin Cycle Suggests DJIA Decline Until End of 2025. 

Sergey Tarassov  (June 26, 2024) - 2024 DJIA vs 40 Month and 42 Month Cycles.

 Carol S. Mull (1989) - The 4 Year Presidential Cycle.

Edward R. Dewey (1971) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle in Stocks.

Crude Oil vs. Liquidity | Simon White

Oil prices are set to rebound due to a historic rise in global liquidity. These are strange days indeed. Policy has been eased in an economy showing scant definitive signs of accelerated slowing; liquidity conditions, which were already robust, have been turbocharged.

 

The recent rise in G10 excess liquidity to a level it has only eclipsed once before is a very positive tailwind for crude prices.

 

Reference:
Simon White (October 31, 2024) - Is Surging Global Liquidity About To Send Black Gold Soaring Too?

Iran's Crushing Blow to the Israeli Regime is Coming | Mohammad Marandi

Iran will definitely respond to Israel's attack on October 26th because it needs to create deterrence. The Zionist regime is not a normal state; it is a genocidal entity that is carrying out a Holocaust before the eyes of the world. It conducts genocidal airstrikes on Lebanon, slaughters people in Gaza and the West Bank, regularly bombs Syria, and attacks Iran. It is a lawless regime, and the only way to stop it is to slap it down.

  » We are approaching the conclusion of what is termed Israel. «

In the past, Iran has demonstrated a significant amount of strategic patience. It can certainly outgun the Israeli regime, possessing numerous underground missile and drone facilities across the country. These facilities were created to protect against a potential American attack and are well secured, situated deep underground. The reason the Americans have never attacked Iran is its ability to defend itself.

The Israeli regime, on the other hand, is small, vulnerable, and entirely dependent on the West. In any major exchange, its infrastructure would be swiftly destroyed. However, Iran does not want a regional war, and neither does anyone else. It is only the Israelis who seek a regional conflict, hoping for American involvement. Iran aims to demonstrate to the world, particularly to the Global South, that it is not trying to instigate a regional war, as such a conflict would jeopardize the global economy—something no one desires.

If the Americans become involved, their bases in the Persian Gulf region and Iraq would be swept away. More importantly, the family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf would lose their oil and gas installations, leading to the collapse of these regimes. This scenario would further contribute to the downfall of the global economy. That is not what any sane person wants. Yet, the Israeli regime appears willing to sacrifice everyone for its genocidal interests.

 » The influential Israeli rabbi Yitzhak Yosef warns that ultra-Orthodox Jews or Haredis
could leave Israel en masse, if forced to enlist in the army. «
 

This time around, however, the Iranians will strike Israel significantly harder. Iran has hundreds of thousands of drones and missiles prepared for war and can launch nearly 2,000 drones and missiles in a single wave, with the capability to fire multiple waves thereafter—something the Israelis cannot counter.

The Iranian drones used in previous retaliations were outdated, but Iran possesses very advanced drones and missiles, including hypersonic missiles that have not yet been utilized. There are many capabilities Iran has not revealed; until now, it has focused on gathering intelligence and assessing the Israeli regime's lack of defensive ability. When the time comes, Iran will undoubtedly strike the Israeli regime, which could happen any day now, possibly tonight or tomorrow. It is inevitable.

'Greater Israel' map display; “Israeli” soldier's uniform patch raises alarm.

Conditions are expected to worsen for the Israeli regime. It has failed to make any real inroads into southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has punished them. As this battle progresses, the situation will only deteriorate for the Israeli regime, which has bitten off more than it can chew. It is currently being hammered in both the north and in Gaza, and its global image has been severely damaged.

Ultimately, when a ceasefire occurs, it will signify the failure of the Israeli regime. Once ordinary Israelis wake up to the reality that they cannot win this war against the Palestinian people, the Lebanese people, and others in the region, and once they recognize the world's disgust towards them, it will mark the end of the Zionist project. This may take a few years, but we are approaching the conclusion of what is termed Israel.

The people of the Zionist entity are unaware of how deeply despised they are worldwide and how poorly their armed forces are performing in Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli regime is despised across all continents, particularly among the youth. Slaughter is not an achievement. Israelis may perceive the killing of women and children as a success because they view them as Amalek, but every child killed generates more hatred globally. On the battlefield, Hezbollah has shown its ability to significantly harm the regime, not only inflicting casualties but also damaging the Israeli economy. We must always remember that the Israeli regime has far more to lose than Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, which are under US and Western sanctions.

Quoted from:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi (October 31, 2024) - Iran's Crushing Blow is Coming.