Showing posts with label Debt Crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Debt Crisis. Show all posts

Friday, April 4, 2025

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.
 
Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 
accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.



The formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. 
 Brilliant minds at work: Tariffs = Trade Deficit/US Imports.

Deindustrialized Reality: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 
Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 
 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dollar’s Status at Risk: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 
 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Overreach and Collapse: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 
Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

 
  


  
» The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «
 
 
 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 
They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.
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Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 
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Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.


2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.


3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.


4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.


5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.


6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.


7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.


8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.


9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.


 

» China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. « — Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.
 
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Friday, March 21, 2025

Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Hans: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. [...] I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

» From about May 15th 2025 on, Europe is going into war, 
Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’ forecasts [...] The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year [2026], and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital as soon as possible. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU. [...] Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital [by October 2025]. This is about taxes all over again.
 
» We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. «
Martin Armstrong, March 17, 2025.

[...] I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe. The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

 » We are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.
Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026. PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. 
Major recession globally into 2028. EU prepares for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. «

[...] While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

» Macron and Starmer are insane. Putin can detonate a 100-megaton nuke and the tidal wave
will wipe out Britain entirely. The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!! «
Martin Armstrong, March 21, 2025.
 
[...] Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. [...] Everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. [...] Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.

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Friday, March 14, 2025

The ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention | Jim Bianco

It might sound too extreme to even consider, but the idea that President Donald Trump could force some of the US's foreign creditors to swap their Treasuries for "zero-coupon" bonds—in other words, zero-interest bonds that do not mature for a century—in order to lighten the nation’s debt load is being taken seriously by some.

That’s exactly what Jim Bianco guided his clients to discuss after rumors of a so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord" began to spread. To be clear, Bianco doesn’t anticipate this happening soon, if ever. But in many ways, that’s beside the point. Trump, Bianco said, could very well disrupt the entire global financial system within the next four years, and Wall Street needs to be ready for that.

 A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, Stephen Miran, November 2024.

Bianco, a market veteran with over 30 years of experience and founder of Bianco Research, explained that restructuring America’s debt is part of the Trump administration’s broader plan to overhaul global trade through tariffs, weaken the dollar, and reduce borrowing costs—all with the goal of making US industries more competitive on the world stage. Other pieces of the plan include setting up a sovereign wealth fund (which Trump has already started) and pressuring US allies to contribute more to defense spending.

“You have to start thinking big and you have to start thinking bold about what is going on here. The Mar-a-Lago Accord is not actually a thing, it’s a concept. It is a plan to basically remake some of the financial system.”

 
The term “Mar-a-Lago Accord” is a play on the 1985 Plaza Accord and the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement—two major agreements that shaped the modern global economic system, each named after the locations where they were negotiated.

Many of the ideas behind this agenda stem from a November 2024 paper by Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to lead the White House Council of Economic Advisers. In it, the former Treasury official proposed a strategy for reforming the global trading system and addressing economic imbalances caused by the “persistent dollar overvaluation.” The paper also highlighted that President Trump has long been focused on putting American industries on a fairer playing field globally.

» Everything that President Trump’s administration is doing will be disinflationary. «
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, February 20, 2025.
 
Bianco noted that this vision doesn’t necessarily clash with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that “the US still has a strong dollar policy.” This is because, while the US may aim for a weaker trade-weighted dollar (which measures the dollar’s value against that of its trading partners) to narrow the trade deficit, financial indicators of the dollar, such as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, could still rise. 

“Stephen Miran and Scott Bessent seem to be kind of singing from the same hymn sheet. The whole idea hopefully is lower the value of the dollar, lower the value of interest rates, bring down the debt burden in the country. And that’s what they’re trying to do.”

» Scott Bessent is one of the most powerful champions of the US deep state. He is the real gladiator behind Trump 2.0,
not Elon Musk. His role will be crucial in keeping the US empire alive. Bessent is extremely intelligent and capable.
Bessent’s capabilities go beyond what most people can imagine. He possesses a deep understanding of monetary, currency,
and financial systems—and, more importantly, he has real-world combat experience in financial warfare. He is a genius.
But like everyone, Bessent also has his flaws. People like him, who are highly capable and self-confident,
often don’t hide their moves or intentions. «
 
Bianco, echoing Miran’s paper, also referenced former Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, who has long argued for a “Bretton Woods III” overhaul as part of his theory that the dollar will play a less dominant role in global finance in the coming decades. One of Pozsar’s central ideas is that other countries should pay more for the security and stability provided by the US. One potential way to do this is by swapping some of their Treasuries for 100-year, non-tradable zero-coupon bonds. If these nations needed immediate access to funds, the Federal Reserve could make it temporarily available to them via a lending facility.

Bianco emphasized that such a debt swap may never actually happen, and if it were pursued, it would require extensive international cooperation and could potentially destabilize the global financial system. However, bond markets have shown little concern so far, with Treasury trading remaining relatively calm in recent days. Still, Bianco’s point in discussing these ideas with his clients is to highlight the magnitude of the potential changes ahead.

“Take them seriously, don’t take it literally. If Trump is willing to blow up NATO, why wouldn’t he be willing to blow up the financial system?”

Reference:
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Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Trump Managing the Collapse of the American Empire | Thierry Meyssan

On January 21 and 22, Donald Trump had gathered the central bankers and finance ministers of the G7 in his Mar-a-Lago residence. He is said to have welcomed them by telling: "No one will leave this room until we have found an agreement on the dollar." The agreement in question would therefore have been approved by the allies. The main idea would be for the US Treasury to issue government bonds that do not pay interest (what are called "zero coupons") and that would not mature for a century (that is, could not be exchanged for cash for 100 years). Washington would therefore have to force its allies to convert their debts into "zero coupons". 
 
 » No one will leave this room until we have found an agreement on the dollar. «
 
[...] The US public debt has now reached the astronomical sum of 34,000 billion dollars, of which only a third is held by foreign investors, according to Forbes. If some of the US creditors, mainly China and Saudi Arabia, were to ask for repayment, a gigantic economic crisis would occur as in 1929. Many economists regularly warn of this prospect. According to Jon Hartley of the Hoover Institution, central banks have not reduced the share of the dollar in their foreign exchange reserves since the war in Ukraine. However, on February 20, a videoconference by analyst Jim Bianco, taken up by the Bloomberg agency, rekindled concerns. According to this analyst, the Trump administration is following a plan, the "Mar-a-Lago Accord". It intends to radically restructure the US debt burden by reorganizing world trade through tariffs, devaluing the dollar and, ultimately, reducing the cost of borrowing, all with the aim of putting US industry on an equal footing with its competitors in the rest of the world. [...] De-dollarization, that is, using the dollar only at the national level of the United States and no longer in international trade, is the sea serpent of finance.

[...] If we accept this analysis, we must reinterpret various actions of President Trump, in terms of customs duties or the creation of a sovereign wealth fund. They no longer seem as erratic as the international press describes them, but on the contrary very logical. We must therefore consider that Donald Trump is trying to manage the possible economic collapse of Joe Biden’s "American empire" as Yuri Andropov, Konstantin Chernenko and Mikhail Gorbachev tried to manage that of Leonid Brezhnev’s "Soviet empire". I am all the more attentive to this hypothesis because, in my opinion, the coup of September 11, 2001 had no other goal than to postpone the foreseeable collapse of the “American empire”. The last two decades have been only a reprieve that, far from solving the problem, have only made it much more complex. 
 
[...] This time, cautiously, President Trump is lulling his public opinion to sleep by evoking the annexation of the entire North American continental shelf, from Greenland to the Panama Canal, while liquidating the war in Ukraine and the European Union. If my hypothesis is correct, we must not believe a word of the threats of annexation of new territories, such as Canada, and not imagine that the United States is withdrawing militarily from Europe to confront China, but admit that it is militarily abandoning its European allies. We see that it is abandoning Germany and relying on Poland to organize Central Europe, even if it means letting Warsaw annex Eastern Galicia (currently Ukrainian). Similarly, we must prepare to see the United States abandon its Middle Eastern allies, with the exception of Israel. Indeed, it has just resumed arms deliveries to Tel Aviv and begun secret talks with Iran via Moscow. They let Saudi Arabia and Turkey divide up the Arab world.

 » Russia needs the United States to avoid finding itself face to face with China. «

The competition between Paris and London to take the lead in European defense should therefore not be understood as opposition to peace in Ukraine. Neither the French nor the British armies have the possibility of replacing Washington’s military support. It is rather a question of determining the role that the two capitals will subsequently play on the continent. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, hopes to develop his defense concept around the French strike force, while Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, intends to take advantage of the situation. The former is aware that the European Union, around Germany, is disintegrating and that President Trump prefers the "Three Seas Initiative", around Poland. He could therefore reawaken the Weimar Triangle (Germany/France/Poland) to maintain some room for maneuver. While, from the same analysis and taking into account the disappearance of NATO, the second will ensure that Germany is kept as far away from Russia as possible, thus continuing his country’s foreign policy for a century and a half. 
 
» Fuhrer Ursula is mobilizing everybody to re-militarize Europe. «
 
Note that if the European allies, the Chinese and the Saudis should consider it a scam to exchange their debts for “zero coupons”, Russia should on the contrary support the United States in this maneuver. Indeed, during the dismantling of the Soviet Union, Russia went through a decade of recession and unrest, but today it needs the United States to avoid finding itself face to face with China.

 
ooooOO0OOoooo
 
Trump’s Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, is making his way to Moscow this week to “urge” Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, or else, the White House announced today. It remains unclear whether President Vladimir Putin will even meet with him. Putin has already made Russia’s position clear: No “temporary” ceasefires. A whole new multipolar security order. Yalta 2.0. Long-term peace or nothing.

 » I hope it's not going to be necessary. «
GOAT One-Trick ZioCon MIGA-MAGA Don, March 12, 2025.

After the complete trainwreck in Saudi Arabia, where Washington bent over backwards to appease Ukraine’s fascist regime, agreeing to rearm the Nazi terrorists and give them a 30-day breather, it’s hard to see what’s even on the table. Russia doesn’t do ceasefires for Western rearmament. Russia dictates battlefield reality, not White House wishful thinking. Putin won’t waste more time on US theatrics unless there’s something real to discuss.

 Efforts to reasonably deal with the Trump administration failed, and on March 12,
Putin appears in military uniform for the first time since the start of the war.
 
If the US wants a real negotiation, it should finally realize where to start: First, stop this hollow and ridiculous propaganda charade of 'Trump aiming to broker a ceasefire and peace deal between Russia and Ukraine,' and acknowledge that Russia has defeated the US and all of NATO in Ukraine. The US has lost, is exhausted, humiliated, and bankrupt, and Russia has offered the new US administration a chance to at least save face and improve relations, instead of escalating into nuclear Armageddon. Second, stop financing and rearming the Zelensky regime, and cut its access to Starlink.

 
The GOAT fiscal MIGA-MAGA Ponzi scheme beyond repair.

If it's just about another silly PR stunt to please BlackRock and the 
deluded MIGA-MAGA gaga-crowds, you’d better DOGE the airfare, Witkoff.
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