Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Europe: Civil Unrest and International War Converge | Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You were projecting civil unrest here in 2026 in advance. My brother's store was completely looted and destroyed in France. Macron can make his resolute television appearance, but nobody listened to the people, and they certainly ignored your forecasts, which you have always said were not merely your personal opinion. This appears to be spreading everywhere: to Belgium, Italy, and Germany, as well as Albania. Will this escalate into November? Pierre

» 
Et pendant ce temps-là... la la la... on joue à la guerre! « 

ANSWER: I wish I had better news. You are correct; 2026 was the major target for widespread civil unrest in Europe. This will not be the end of it. There will be a reprieve, but as I have warned, the migrant issue will put Europe at tremendous risk, for the people they let in have no interest in assimilating. This will perhaps continue into November. This is part of the rising fuel costs, and they continue to support Zelensky, and our computer warns energy is still in a bull market.
 
Yearly Civil Unrest, 2022 to 2033.

Crude can soar to as high as $200 a barrel in 2028, thanks to war and Zelensky. I have warned that the Neocons only look at their objective and are ignorant of everything else around them. They are really screwing the world economy, and much of the protests are also about the cost of living. Protests will not bring down the cost of living until the leaders abandon Zelensky.

Yearly International War, 2022 to 2033.
 
I have tried to warn that this is the first time I saw the computer have both models, Civil Unrest and International War, aligning at the same time. We have a Panic Cycle in civil unrest in 2029. This raises serious concern that the EU may no longer exist and that the rise in this civil unrest will increase the pressure for separatist movements. The politicians have simply refused to listen to the people they are supposed to represent because they see the people as too stupid to visualize what they see for the future.


These forecasts are NOT my personal opinion. This is the computer, all based on the historical record. We probably have the largest such database, separated between domestic and international events. This allows us to create two separate models and do not compare these forecasts as my opinion against someone else's. This is the data.

 
Bismillah, c'est les ténèbres!
Two geniuses on death row. 

See also:

Sunday, October 11, 2026

The Counterfeit Empire: How the EU Occupies Europe | Speculum Orientis

Plain language about the European Union is forbidden. Its apologists chant "peace," "cooperation," "human rights," but behind the litany stands a labyrinth of rule designed so that ordinary men never grasp how their lives are governed. Tradition sees no partnership of fatherlands here. The EU is an Atlanticist occupation imposed after 1945, built to extinguish organic sovereignty, erase Europe's qualitative order, and chain the continent to a foreign hegemon. Its centralisation is not the fault; its spiritual void and managerial tyranny are.

Locking Europe into permanent subordination.

The Historical Roots: An Empire Prevented
The official story sells the European project as a noble escape from war. The truth is uglier. After the Second World War, the United States required a Europe shattered enough never to threaten its interests or drift toward independence. The answer was integration—not a free union of peoples, but an occupation logic made permanent.

The Marshall Plan was the economic bait. The institutional trap was the European Coal and Steel Community, shaped by Jean Monnet, a technocrat deep in Anglo-American financial and intelligence circuits. Monnet's blueprint skipped parliaments and national legitimacies. American money, including covert CIA funds for the European Movement, manufactured consent among a beaten elite. The Schuman Declaration of 1950 was drafted in Monnet's office and approved by the US Secretary of State before any European public heard a word. From the first breath, the project was an Atlanticist protectorate, foreclosing any authentic European Imperium in favour of a managerial pseudo-empire.

While official Europe preached reconciliation, the transatlantic deep state planted a paramilitary dagger under the continent: Operation Gladio, stay-behind armies coordinated by NATO and the CIA, buried across Western Europe. Its public mission was resistance to a Soviet invasion; its actual function was internal control—false-flag terror, a strategy of tension to discredit national and communist movements, keeping populations fearful and pliant. Gladio did not only target the Left; it shattered any truly European imperial project that might rise outside Atlanticist command. The dream of a Europe united not by paperwork but by spiritual authority and organic hierarchy was replaced by a bureaucratic anti-empire serving an overseas merchant power.

» Protecting our democracy and European values. «
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission,
Brussels, October 9, 2026.
 
The Institutional Labyrinth: A Deliberate Maze
The EU's structure is no accident. It is a deliberate maze—a tangle of competences and procedures where no voter can locate responsibility, so no popular will can strike. The "institutional triangle" of Commission, Council, and Parliament is a screen. The true architecture places the Commission at the centre: an unelected executive that monopolises the right to propose laws. Flanking it stand the European Court of Justice and the European Central Bank—three bodies united by a single principle, insulation from any electoral sanction. The Parliament cannot initiate legislation and is reduced to secret trilogue deals; the Council of ministers offers the illusion of national sovereignty, but qualified majority voting routinely overrules dissent, and the Council's agenda is steered by the very Commission no voter can remove.
The Commission: The Inverted Hierarchy
The European Commission is the true executive. It alone possesses the near-monopoly of legislative initiative. It drafts regulations that penetrate every corner of national life, polices compliance, negotiates treaties, and can drag member states before the Court. Yet no voter in any election has ever cast a ballot for the College of Commissioners.

Even by democracy's own debased standards, the Commission is a fraud. But the deeper scandal—for those who still see—is not the missing mandate. It is that a purely administrative, economic-technocratic caste has usurped the station that belongs to spiritual and warrior authority. This is the revolt of the lower functions—the manager, the merchant, the rootless expert—against the higher orders of priest and king, an inversion that any traditional doctrine would recognise. The Commission is that inversion made flesh: an unelected college of economic functionaries, drawn from the lowest caste of market technocrats, deciding the identity and destiny of Europe's peoples. Their cabinet meetings are secret; their oath demands loyalty not to any nation but to the abstract deity of the acquis communautaire. They are the priesthood of a counterfeit religion, pushing "ever closer union" as secular salvation.
 
Woke liberal fascism—compulsory celebration of rootlessness, fluid identities, anti-traditional egalitarianism—
is the apparatus's state religion. It is the necessary value-system of a regime that has inverted all values. 

The Court: Qualities Erased
If the Commission is the engine, the Court is the silent sovereign. Through direct effect, supremacy, and implied powers, it has built a self-expanding federal legal order where EU law trumps all national law, including constitutional law. The supposed limits—conferral, subsidiarity, proportionality—have been hollowed into nothing. Conferral, which says the Union acts only within given competences, is bypassed by the Court's teleological reading: any national rule with a cross-border economic echo can be sucked into the centralising vortex. Subsidiarity, the promise that decisions stay close to the citizen, is dead; the Court always defers to the Commission's claim that Union action is more "effective." The ratchet turns one way. What is Europeanised never returns.
 
Sincere cooperation finishes the trap. Dressed as mutual loyalty, it becomes a command of obedience when the Commission or Court wield it. A member state whose constitutional court dares assert sovereignty, or whose government voices a different civilisational vision, is accused of violating this duty. Sincere cooperation is a muzzle, a juridical weapon to silence peoples who refuse the homogeneous mass. This is the reign of quantity: uniform legal norms erasing every qualitative distinction, reducing all that is noble and differentiated to an administrative formula.
 
BlackRock Merz assures the Cocaine Dwarf an extra €90 billion, October 4, 2026. 
 
The Charter: Deception as High Politics
The Charter of Fundamental Rights was proclaimed non-binding at Nice in 2000 because Britain and Poland flatly refused to let a supranational bill of rights override their traditions. That rejection should have killed it. Instead, the Lisbon Treaty smuggled it into binding law. Opt-out protocols were concocted, but the Court reads them as narrowly as possible.

Sold as a shield for the individual, the Charter is an engine of egalitarian ideology. The Commission's "rule of law" mechanism, invoked in the name of Charter values, coerces dissident nations that resist the Brussels social consensus. Traditional moral order, organic community, and faith are treated as obstacles to be dismantled. The same institutional class that ran Gladio's clandestine war against self-determination now lectures the continent on human rights. The velvet glove of "fundamental rights" hides the iron fist of homogenisation.
 
The ECB: The Monetary Absolute
The ECB is unaccountable power in its rawest form. The eurozone surrendered monetary sovereignty to an institution whose governing council deliberates in secret, cannot take instructions from any government, and has, in crisis, dictated austerity to elected parliaments in Greece, Italy, and elsewhere. A currency governed by bankers without mandate is the ultimate symbol of the modern inversion: the merchant's logic usurps the royal function, the quantitative rules the qualitative absolutely. The ECB holds the strings of national solvency; democratic choices that displease the Frankfurt technocracy are punished by market pressure and liquidity denial. The single currency was never a tool of prosperity—it was a cage.

The Ever-Growing Union: Aggression Without End
The treaties enshrine "ever closer union." Not a poetic wish—a constitutional engine that mandates limitless expansion. The aggression of the EU does not spring from a will to organic unity. A true Imperium would honour the hierarchical articulation of peoples, nations, and functions. The EU's totalitarian impulse is that of a purely economic-ideological machine that cannot tolerate any qualitative remainder, any sacred immunity.

Hence the invasion of every sphere: working time, agriculture, state aid, environment, data, immigration quotas, foreign policy. And most visibly, migration. Mass immigration, imposed against the consent of nations and dismantling the demographic continuity of Europe, is no accident of mismanagement. It is a deliberate instrument of qualitative dissolution. The full anatomy of this transformation is laid out in Notes from a Civilization in Winter.

The proposed "chat control" regulation mandates the scanning of all private digital communications, breaking encryption under the alibi of protecting children. This is the surveillance state creeping through the back door, pushed by an unelected bureaucracy that brands every opponent an apologist for abuse. Woke liberal fascism—compulsory celebration of rootlessness, fluid identities, anti-traditional egalitarianism—is the apparatus's state religion. It is the necessary value-system of a regime that has inverted all values: the low exalted, the rooted despised, the spiritual mocked, while the administrator occupies the place once held by kings, aristocracies, and priests.

The Counterfeit Empire and the Need to Stop It
Every attempt to tame the beast from within has failed. The Commission holds the pen; the Court twists every ambiguity toward Brussels' absolute claim; the Parliament is a lobby conveyor belt; the ECB grips the solvency whip. Conferral is a fiction. Subsidiarity is a lie. The institutions are irreversible because they serve not Europe but an Atlanticist order that must prevent any true European power from arising.

The path forward cannot be a return to the liberal nation-state—that atomising, anti-traditional form that itself prepared the ground for this occupation. To clear away Brussels is not to restore the Europe of 1939; it is to open the possibility of an order that is neither the nation-state nor the managerial pseudo-empire. An order rooted in spiritual authority and qualitative differentiation, whatever shape it takes, has nothing in common with the procedural, egalitarian machine sitting in Brussels, Frankfurt, and Luxembourg.

The "ever closer union" of the treaties is a demonic parody of true unity. It will not stop on its own. It must be stopped. And after its end, the ancient, sovereign, qualitatively ordered Europe may finally breathe again.

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Captain Obvious of the Euro-Titanic | Laura Ru

On August 27, at a business forum in Paris, Führerin Ursula von der Leyen stated the obvious: the former advantages of the European economy have all disappeared. The European economic model, she explained, had rested on several pillars: cheap imported energy from Russia, open global trade, growing access to the Chinese market, US strategic protection, and Western technological leadership.

What von der Leyen chose not to mention was that these advantages did not disappear by accident. They were systematically destroyed by the very institution she leads, through sanctions that severed energy and economic ties with Russia, a trade war against China, and regulatory overreach that suffocated European industry.

Russian officials have watched Europe's self-inflicted wounds with a mixture of bewilderment and dark amusement. Maria Zakharova, the official spokesperson for Russia's Foreign Ministry, responded to von der Leyen's confession with a single, devastating epithet: "Captain Obvious of the Euro-Titanic." From Beijing, the critique is no less damning. Chinese analysts have watched Europe's protectionist turn with growing frustration, arguing that the EU is destroying the very thing it claims to protect: its own industrial competitiveness.
The EU's share of global GDP has plummeted from 30% in 2008 to just 17% in 2025—a decline three times faster than that of China's Qing Dynasty during its collapse. And as one Chinese commentator put it, while the Qing fell to foreign invasion, Europe's decline is "self-inflicted, purely something Europe has brought upon itself."
It is, in the words of one Chinese analyst, "locking protectionism directly into its economic and trade policy system." European decision-makers, Chinese commentators argue, have lost touch with basic economic reality. They are absolutely right. This is a systemic crisis that permeates Europe's decision-making circles. Both Moscow and Beijing see the same tragic irony. Europe has spent years lecturing the world about rules and order, about strategic autonomy and economic resilience. Yet in its rush to punish Russia and contain China, it has torn down the very foundations of its own prosperity.
In Paris, the Führerin zeroed in on Europe's €10 trillion in household bank deposits, branding them "lazy" (paresseuse) capital that must be forced "to the service of European companies" through her Savings and Investment Union. Explicit plan: securitize them, supervise them. Coming for your savings, Europe.
Europe's energy prices are now two to three times higher than in the US and China. Its industrial base, once the envy of the world, is bleeding jobs and capacity. Its share of global markets continues to shrink. And its leaders, having created the crisis with their own hands, can only stand by and admit that the old model is gone. They are clearly batting for another team, one that demands Europe throw itself off the cliff.
 
Laura Ru (pen name of Laura Ruggeri) is a Milan-born Italian independent researcher, writer, and geopolitical analyst based in Hong Kong since 1997. A former academic in media and cultural studies, she focuses on multipolarity, international relations, US foreign policy, China–EU relations, and European political economy. She publishes long-form essays and commentary on  Substack, Medium, and Telegram.

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Sanctions Could Disrupt Global Finance!"

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined "Operation Economic Outcast," a phased sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s cryptocurrency, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, while warning third countries to cut ties with Tehran or risk losing access to the US dollar. 
  
 Currency Collapse Indicator Model: US 2026 worse than Venezuela 2017. Ready for shock therapy?
» Scott Bessent looks to be intentionally crashing the $. I studied currency collapses and found that there were  7 indicators that preceded every major currency collapse in modern history. I then measured the US dollar against those 7. And as of right now, based on what Scott Bessent did last week, we have hit all 7 indicators. No country in modern history has met all 7 and avoided a currency collapse. None. And this doesn't look to be happening to us, it looks to be being done to us, by the people who swore an oath to prevent it. And they are getting rich while they do it. «

He warned that "sanctions could disrupt global finance," arguing that a gradual approach gives nations time to end their dealings with Tehran and avoid broader financial disruption. His remarks drew mixed reactions, ranging from claims that they amounted to an "empire-level economic terrorist" admission to interpretations that they were simply a rhetorical push for compliance, fueling memes and debate over the global impact of sanctions.

» Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? «

Bessent's recent doubling of bond buybacks and sanctions have been cited as potential warning signs, alongside indicators such as high debt-to-GDP, declining reserves, and political interference, with charts comparing the US to historical cases. 
 
 "Let them eat white bread!"
The Reign of the Orange Ape—certainly one for the history books.
 
The US Dollar System.
 
Reactions split between alarm over a potential dollar squeeze—fueled by China's reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold purchases—and pushback emphasizing the dollar’s unique reserve-currency status and the subjectivity of such models. Markets have reflected the debate, with a weaker dollar coinciding with gains in gold and Bitcoin as concerns persist over the official $40 trillion national debt.
 
You don't grow your way out of debt when 
debt is outrunning growth every single year. 
 
Jerome Powell in February 2024, in a 60 Minutes interview
—and still not arrested... 'cause it's the land of the free.
 
Warsh will inflate the US debt away. It was clear
in February 2026... and it should be clearer now.  
 
Well, that official US national-debt number—$40 trillion—is a straight-up lie. The US government uses accounting rules that would get every CEO and entrepreneur arrested. Unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises over the next 75 years: more than $400 trillion. None of it is on the government's headline balance sheet. A public company would be required to recognize future obligations. Washington simply doesn't. And when promises can't be paid honestly, there's always another way to settle the bill: Create the money. Inflate the currency. Make everyone else pay. The $40 trillion isn't the whole bill. It's the number this giga-corrupt criminal regime in Washington chooses to put on the books—and Americans and the rest of the world are expected to pretend the other $400+ trillion of this Ponzi scheme doesn't exist. Inflation is a tax. Seigniorage is fraud. Americans, make these criminals economic outcasts. 
 
See also:

Friday, August 21, 2026

Why Time Is on Iran, Russia and China's Side | Michael Hudson

Time is on the side of Iran, Russia, and China and increasingly works against the US and its allies. The longer the confrontation persists, the greater the pressure on highly indebted Western economies. As in Russia's past wars against Napoleon and Germany, the decisive advantage need not come from military strength alone, but from an external force that steadily erodes the enemy's capacity to sustain the conflict. Today, that force is the global financial and economic system.

Tsar Nicholas I famously boasted that Russia possessed two unbeatable generals—"General January and General February." However, while the severe winter of 1854–1855 did inflict catastrophic casualties on British and French forces during the Siege of Sevastopol, "General Winter" failed to save Russia from defeat in the Crimean War (1853–1856). World War I illustration of 'General Winter' on the Eastern Front, featured on the front page of the French periodical Le Petit Journal (1916).
"General Winter"—Russia's eternal ally against her enemies.

The US has contained the oil price shock by releasing oil from its strategic petroleum reserves and encouraging other countries to do the same, despite the major disruption to Persian Gulf exports. But this buys time, and only by depleting reserves and leaving less room for further intervention. The stakes are high because higher energy prices quickly feed into diesel, aviation fuel, fertilizer, transportation, and food costs. With the US midterm elections approaching, Washington is therefore racing the clock to contain prices as its economic buffers diminish.

Weaponizing Survival: Energy, Food, and Sovereign Debt Pressure
Iran's strategic advantage is to avoid escalation while letting economic pressure accumulate. A similar dynamic is developing around Russia and Ukraine, where disruptions to grain exports risk compounding the energy shock. About 27% of global grain trade moves through the Black Sea; Ukraine's harvest is coming in while warehouses are full, and Russian attacks on shipping and ports threaten both incoming supplies and outgoing grain. Much of Ukraine's grain normally goes to Europe, leaving Europe vulnerable to simultaneous fertilizer, food, and energy-price shocks.
 
Asymmetric warfare against Western full-spectrum aggression:
wrecking the enemy through food, energy, and debt.

The crisis need not involve major military escalation because the US and Europe are already too financially stretched to absorb a sustained increase in energy costs without wider economic damage. Higher fuel prices raise transportation, food distribution, and production costs; industries operating on thin margins can become unprofitable; and higher inflation puts upward pressure on interest rates. The resulting pressure spreads to agriculture, trucking, and the movement of crops, with particularly severe effects in the West, among US allies, and across developing economies in Asia and the Global South.

 
Higher inflation and interest rates also raise the cost of servicing already-heavy debt burdens. Rising bond yields compound the problem in the US, Japan, and other highly indebted economies, while vulnerabilities associated with Japan's currency and carry trade expose the limits of available policy responses. The fundamental vulnerability is therefore debt: governments must increasingly choose between supporting households and industry and servicing accumulated debt.

Sanctions Threaten America's Financial Power 
This pressure also threatens the financial system that has enabled the US to exercise global power for decades. Washington has relied not only on military force, but also on its control of the dollar, international payments, global banking, and the oil trade. By weaponizing sanctions against Iran and threatening Chinese, Asian, and other banks involved in Iranian oil transactions, the US is encouraging those same countries and institutions to reduce their dependence on the dollar. Financial coercion could therefore undermine one of America's principal instruments of power.

murder, slaughter, genocide: children, women, heads of state; weapon, drug, organ, child
trafficking; well poisoning; pedophilia; hijacking; torturing; counterfeiting; looting; piracy; bribery...
 
The oil trade is particularly important because Persian Gulf and OPEC oil have long been key channels of US financial influence. Oil revenues recycled through US banks, dollar assets, and the American financial system have reinforced the dollar's central position. Driving oil producers, buyers, and financial institutions away from that system therefore risks undermining the very mechanism Washington has used as a global economic choke point.  
 
Tru
mp offered billions to Iran's military
. 

Iran: "Leave before it's too late!"

Iran's strategy exploits this contradiction. If its own oil exports are blocked by sanctions and trade restrictions, the implicit threat is that broader oil exports may also be disrupted, forcing other countries to choose between accepting higher energy costs and resisting the sanctions regime. Iran cannot defeat the US militarily, even though it can attack US bases in the Middle East; its leverage instead lies in imposing costs on the wider system and forcing other countries to decide how they will respond.

China and the Emerging Alternative
China is relatively well-positioned to withstand such pressure because of its large oil reserves, coal resources, and extensive investment in solar power and other energy alternatives. The broader question is how China, Russia, Iran, Asia, and the Global South will respond if continued US sanctions keep driving up energy and commodity prices. Their incentive will be to develop mechanisms that insulate their trade from unilateral US financial coercion. 

Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China, presenting his
landmark 2009 proposal, "Reform the International Monetary System," 
to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Gold provides one possible reserve asset outside the dollar system. Countries have increasingly added to their gold reserves while maintaining relatively stable dollar holdings; the European Union now holds more reserves in gold than in dollars. China and Russia have also developed alternatives to Western payment infrastructure. China's and Russia's independent clearing systems reduce their reliance on SWIFT, while Iran has experimented with cryptocurrency payments despite the US seizure of Iranian cryptocurrency assets.  
 
The issue therefore goes beyond creating a BRICS currency. What is required is an alternative international architecture for payments, reserves, and lending, capable of financing trade without depending on the dollar, SWIFT, the IMF, or other Western institutions. China, because of its enormous financial reserves, is uniquely positioned to provide the financial capacity that such a system would require. Russia and Iran could contribute oil, with Russia also contributing grain.

The Cost of Dedollarization
Such a system could fundamentally reshape the post-1945 financial order. Countries facing rising energy, food, fertilizer, and chemical costs would increasingly face a choice between supporting domestic industry and households and servicing dollar-denominated debt. As balance-of-payments pressures intensify, governments would have to decide whether scarce resources should go toward subsidizing industry, protecting families from higher heating and food costs, or continuing to pay foreign creditors. The incentive to prioritize domestic stability would accelerate dedollarization and weaken the financial mechanisms through which Washington has historically exercised global influence.

More sanctions, guns, butter, servicing debt, or collapse?
 
China, Russia, and Iran could therefore form the foundation of an alternative monetary system: Iran contributing oil, Russia oil and grain, and China financial reserves. Such a system could remove or weaken several of the instruments of influence established after World War II to structure global trade and finance in America's interest, including control over the dollar, oil, food, and seaborne trade. 

Keynes's Alternative to the Dollar System
The alternative need not be another dominant national currency at all. The argument instead returns to John Maynard Keynes's 1944 proposal for an international clearing institution based on a supranational unit of account called the bancor. Keynes proposed a system designed to manage persistent international surpluses and deficits rather than forcing debtor countries into destructive austerity. The institution would manage intergovernmental debts, allowing countries with temporary imbalances to obtain temporary liquidity while preserving their capacity to become economically self-sufficient.
 
Keynes maybe wasn't all wrong.

The critical difference is that surplus countries would also share responsibility for global imbalances. Keynes argued that the persistent accumulation of surpluses and claims by creditor countries necessarily creates corresponding deficits elsewhere. If debts become so large that repayment requires destroying a debtor’s economy, those debts should be written down—and the corresponding creditor claims written down as well. The US rejected this approach in 1944 because it was then the dominant creditor and had little incentive to accept a system that could reduce its accumulated claims.
 
Keynes's proposal was shaped by the German reparations and transfer debates of the 1920s. His central argument was that a debtor cannot repay indefinitely by suppressing wages, transferring resources abroad, and selling its assets without destroying its own productive economy. A loan made without regard to the borrower’s ability to repay ultimately becomes a bad loan. The same logic, he argued, applies internationally: forcing debtors into permanent austerity can produce depression rather than repayment.
 
The proposed international institution would create an accounting unit based on a combination of gold and member currencies rather than a conventional national currency. It would manage international surpluses and deficits and provide liquidity for temporary imbalances. When accumulated claims became impossible to service without undermining a country’s productive capacity, the system would permit debt reduction rather than compel economic destruction.

China's Potential Role
China could potentially build such an international payments system around productive investment rather than creditor extraction. Its investments in ports, railways, infrastructure, and the Belt and Road Initiative could increase borrowers' productive capacity and ability to earn foreign exchange, enabling them to repay principal and interest rather than forcing them into austerity and privatization. The argument is that, unlike Western financial systems, China has the capacity to structure such financing primarily on geopolitical and developmental grounds rather than purely for financial returns or capital gains.
 
The central question is whether China itself could avoid becoming another creditor power with the capacity to weaponize its currency. The historical lesson, however, is that other countries did not necessarily expect the US to weaponize the dollar in the 1950s and 1960s, yet it eventually did. The same concern could apply to the yuan. The proposed solution, however, is not simply to substitute one national currency for another, but to create an international clearing mechanism that limits any single country's ability to accumulate unlimited financial power.

The End of the Post-1945 Order
The broader conclusion is that the post-1945 financial order may be approaching a structural break. The present conflict is no longer simply a military conflict; it is increasingly a contest between competing economic systems: a creditor-driven and highly financialized model and an industrial, state-directed model represented by China and parts of Asia. The existing system may not contain mechanisms capable of managing this transition. Instead, the world could fracture into parallel financial and economic systems, with the struggle over the future economic order ultimately displacing the narrower conception of a military or civilizational conflict.

Reference:

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Gold Bull 2027-2032, Monetary Reset & EU Breakup | Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong correctly forecast the recent six-month correction in Gold and Silver, with Gold falling roughly 30% from $5,600 to $3,900 and Silver about 55% from $121 to $55. Both have since rebounded—Gold near $4,500 and Silver above $66—but Armstrong sees this as potentially only an oversold bounce. 
 
» Gold and Silver bull market from Q1 2027 into 2032. «

He argues that precious metals hedge primarily against government, not inflation: Gold fell for 19 years from 1980–1999 despite rising government debt. The current correction reflects growing market complacency over Iran and Ukraine, while smarter money recognizes that neither conflict is likely to resolve cleanly. Armstrong expects the decisive structural turn in Q1 2027, launching a sustained metals bull market into roughly 2032, followed by a monetary reset—marking the peak of the current public-debt cycle and a systemic shift away from pure fiat structures. Central banks lack effective tools against cost-push inflation from such shocks.
 
» This will lead to dramatic changes. «
 
The EU risks breakup by around 2029. Europe's trajectory increasingly resembles the systems Eastern Europeans fled. Governments act solely in their own interest; free-speech and media constraints (illustrated during COVID and through pressure on journalists) demonstrate the pattern. Energy attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure are already creating shortages that force Russia toward imports and are expected to drive energy prices higher.

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Iran's Methodical Gutting of US Power in West Asia | Pepe Escobar

The ways Iran is dismantling the entire American military ecosystem across West Asia with an extremely disciplined strategy are something to behold. The whole CENTCOM support infrastructure is devastatingly fair game: from costly early warning radars to full air defense systems; from hangars to logistics hubs; from fuel and ammunition storage to forward operating bases; from naval and maritime surveillance assets to intel collection and communications nodes. [...] Iran knows where everything is located—to the millimeter. No need to go for flashy photo ops, Shock'n Awe-style, monopolizing the news cycle. What matters is the Chinese torture of steadily degrading the enemy's capabilities; the strategy is painfully methodical and painfully precise.
 
The core elements of American naval power projection rely on supercarriers positioned as the central flagships and command hubs of the fleet. They are accompanied by escort vessels like destroyers and frigates that provide essential anti-air, anti-submarine, and surface protection. Additionally, support ships serve as logistics units responsible for underway replenishment and refueling at sea.
» 
Hitting one of those sitting ducks is being kept for the appropriate time. «
   
[...] The Iranian Way of War is a sophisticated mix that may eventually be studied in Western military academies. All logically interconnected—from destruction of enemy support infrastructure to steady degradation of intel, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities; from attrition of air defense and interceptor inventories to widespread disruption of logistics. And all that is supremely cost-effective—but certainly not for the attacking Empire, as every malfunctioning Patriot costs millions of dollars and simply cannot defend scores of different locations simultaneously.

» 
Iranian Way of War may eventually be studied in Western military academies. «
 
[...] In the bigger picture, the Russia-China-Iran interlocking strategic Eurasia partnerships remain in full effect. That's Russia-China in practice supporting the Axis of Resistance. Iran uses the Russian Murmansk system—inexorably jamming GPS and blinding US/Israeli missiles. Iran also uses Chinese BeiDou—the equivalent of GPS, unjammable by the Americans and rendering precision to the centimeter to Iranian missiles and drones. And Iran uses the Russian Kometa: electronic chips equipping missiles and drones wreaking havoc on American electronic warfare.
 
» Just check the satellite images. «
 
In a nutshell: this is how a systematic degradation of the whole regional architecture that allows the US and its vassals to project military power across West Asia looks. Played out in front of the whole Global South. The manual is available for all, live, in real time. [...] Iran's precision, restraint, and reach are shutting up the whole vociferating spectacle emanating from the Empire of Narratives, as Iranian missiles and drones relentlessly strike fighter jets, Black Hawks, data centers, logistics depots, power plants—and more.

 
The Global South just needs to check the satellite images of proverbial craters across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. And Iran hasn't even started yet. Were Iran to obliterate Qatar’s remaining LNG trains, that would leave most of the planet with no LNG from Doha for at least a decade—not to mention the helium for making microchips.

The massive humiliation of hitting and disabling one of those multibillion-dollar sitting ducks is being kept for the appropriate time. And as everyone knows, Iran runs the clock, and time is on its side. None of that, of course, minimizes the risks of the escalation ladder; and we are still in the middle of what could become the Mother of All Escalation Ladders.