Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: "Sanctions Could Disrupt Global Finance!"

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined "Operation Economic Outcast," a phased sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s cryptocurrency, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, while warning third countries to cut ties with Tehran or risk losing access to the US dollar. 
  
 Currency Collapse Indicator Model: US 2026 worse than Venezuela 2017. Ready for shock therapy?
» Scott Bessent looks to be intentionally crashing the $. I studied currency collapses and found that there were  7 indicators that preceded every major currency collapse in modern history. I then measured the US dollar against those 7. And as of right now, based on what Scott Bessent did last week, we have hit all 7 indicators. No country in modern history has met all 7 and avoided a currency collapse. None. And this doesn't look to be happening to us, it looks to be being done to us, by the people who swore an oath to prevent it. And they are getting rich while they do it. «

He warned that "sanctions could disrupt global finance," arguing that a gradual approach gives nations time to end their dealings with Tehran and avoid broader financial disruption. His remarks drew mixed reactions, ranging from claims that they amounted to an "empire-level economic terrorist" admission to interpretations that they were simply a rhetorical push for compliance, fueling memes and debate over the global impact of sanctions.

» Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? «

Bessent's recent doubling of bond buybacks and sanctions have been cited as potential warning signs, alongside indicators such as high debt-to-GDP, declining reserves, and political interference, with charts comparing the US to historical cases. 
 
 "Let them eat white bread!"
The Reign of the Orange Ape—certainly one for the history books.
 
The US Dollar System.
 
Reactions split between alarm over a potential dollar squeeze—fueled by China's reduced Treasury holdings and increased gold purchases—and pushback emphasizing the dollar’s unique reserve-currency status and the subjectivity of such models. Markets have reflected the debate, with a weaker dollar coinciding with gains in gold and Bitcoin as concerns persist over the official $40 trillion national debt.
 
You don't grow your way out of debt when 
debt is outrunning growth every single year. 
 
Jerome Powell in February 2024, in a 60 Minutes interview
—and still not arrested... 'cause it's the land of the free.
 
Warsh will inflate the US debt away. It was clear
in February 2026... and it should be clearer now.  
 
Well, that official US national-debt number—$40 trillion—is a straight-up lie. The US government uses accounting rules that would get every CEO and entrepreneur arrested. Unfunded Social Security and Medicare promises over the next 75 years: more than $400 trillion. None of it is on the government's headline balance sheet. A public company would be required to recognize future obligations. Washington simply doesn't. And when promises can't be paid honestly, there's always another way to settle the bill: Create the money. Inflate the currency. Make everyone else pay. The $40 trillion isn't the whole bill. It's the number this giga-corrupt criminal regime in Washington chooses to put on the books—and Americans and the rest of the world are expected to pretend the other $400+ trillion of this Ponzi scheme doesn't exist. Inflation is a tax. Seigniorage is fraud. Americans, make these criminals economic outcasts. 
 
See also:
 

Thursday, August 20, 2026

The Imminent Fall of the Eurodollar System | Alex Krainer

During a meeting with technology, crypto, and finance leaders held at the White House yesterday, President Trump brought up the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) again.

» I know, I know… The idea that the Trump administration is doing anything "legitimate"
may defy imagination by now, but the current arrangement is anything but legitimate. «
 
Trump framed the Act as part of his administration's broader crypto and digital-asset agenda (ending what he called the "war on crypto," launching "Project Crypto," establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and creating a Digital Asset Stockpile):
"One year ago this summer, I signed landmark legislation known as the GENIUS Act. … paving the way for widespread adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins, and that's worked out very well."
Indeed, the Act was already passed last summer, and Trump signed it into law on July 18, 2025, so why all the commotion about it now, more than a year later?

Could be earth-shattering…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tweeted that the GENIUS Act established a landmark framework and clear rules of the road for payment stablecoins, and that the Treasury is moving quickly to implement that framework, asking for "input from stakeholders" in order to "cement the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and keep America the crypto capital of the world."

The US, via regulated dollar stablecoins and Treasury authority under the GENIUS Act, aims to shut down the unregulated eurodollar market, reclaim control of the dollar's global role, and defund the "rules-based order" and shadow networks, triggering market tremors, surging demand for legitimate dollars, and pressure on non-favored countries such as Britain, the EU, and Canada.
The Act establishes new US federal laws creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for payment stablecoins redeemable for a fixed monetary value (typically $1) and intended to maintain a stable value relative to the "legal tender" currency. It also restricts the issuance of stablecoins to "permitted payment stablecoin issuers," and this is where the GENIUS Act gets extremely interesting.

What GENIUS Is All About…
Speaking at the SALT Conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the former Wall Street executive and prominent advocate for monetary reform Caitlin Long pointed out that the GENIUS Act enables the Treasury Department to define "what is allowed to be a so-called euro-dollar, euro-yen, euro-euro. Or yuan, right?" She continued:
"… the term ‘euro' doesn't mean European. It means a dollar issued offshore outside of the United States … These are tokenized fiat currencies issued outside of their home country, and the US Treasury is taking charge of the recognition of the validity of these. That is massive.

The fact that there are institutions outside of the United States that can issue US currency should be regarded as an illegal aberration. Effectively, they're counterfeiting US dollars, but in spite of that, for some reason, it has been taken as normal for decades now. That's in spite of the fact that counterfeiting US dollars abroad effectively robs the purchasing power of American taxpayers to fund any manner of nefarious activities."
Most likely, that's why this system was allowed to grow to such massive proportions. Caitlin Long again:
"… If you're a student of the financial markets, you know that the eurodollar market is as large as the domestic financial market. That's the offshore dollar market. When the US Treasury is taking control of what is recognized as valid, that is taken from the Fed. … The Treasury is taking power back over the US dollar, over the eurodollar markets, and, frankly, over the US role in the financial system globally from the Fed."
Long made these comments after discussing the GENIUS Act with "someone who just walked out" of a Treasury Department meeting, and if she is right (I believe she certainly is), the implications could be truly earth-shattering. To begin with, disenfranchising the Fed and taking control over the currency from it is the stuff of civil wars.
"To put that into context, when we were talking earlier about how antiquated the traditional system is and that the Fed's systems are themselves behind… If you've been watching, all of the other agencies have issued rules [in accordance with the GENIUS Act]. One glaring exception: the Fed has not issued its rules yet, and according to the GENIUS Act, all of the agencies' rules were supposed to be final a couple of weeks ago. The Fed hasn't even issued theirs yet, so there's this dynamic going on between the Treasury Department and the Fed."
"The dynamic" going on between the Treasury Department and the Fed is a political collision course in which the Treasury is trying to wrest control over the monetary system from the unelected private bankers and return it to the democratically elected government and its legitimate institutions.

I know, I know… The idea that the Trump administration is doing anything "legitimate" may defy imagination by now, but the current arrangement is anything but legitimate. It is also patently unconstitutional: the Constitution of the US explicitly authorizes Congress with the power "To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof…" (Article I, Section 8, Clause 5). The Constitution also gives Congress the power "to provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States."
 
Contrary to its name, the eurodollar has nothing to do with the European currency. The eurodollar market is an offshore fractional-reserve banking system in which dollar deposits held at banks outside the US are multiplied through interbank lending and book-entry creation, largely free of Fed reserve requirements, to form a vast parallel dollar funding market that ultimately settles via US payment systems.
Eurodollar, Fed, and the Shadow Governments
The counterfeit US dollars circulating abroad are the glue that holds the global "rules-based" order together: they enable the funding needed to bribe foreign officials, pay for and arm the sundry jihadi terror groups and separatist militias. The colossal network of NGOs, charitable organizations, and other groups and activities of shadow governments around the world can't be fully funded through legitimate legal means. These activities often require illegal activities and trillions in embezzled funds.

For example, according to recent reports, billions of dollars have been offered to Iranian officials to sell out and turn Iran over to a government more friendly to the Trump team. In the past, we know that hundreds of millions in US bank notes are routinely smuggled from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, past the US Comptroller of the Currency, to provide funding for coups, assassinations, regime-change operations, and similar "special assignments" by the shadow government.

That is why it should be essential for the US government to regain control of the dollars circulating abroad (or to render those dollars illegitimate and worthless), defunding the "rules-based global order" and reasserting US economic and financial sovereignty. While it would be too optimistic to expect that the Trump administration has pushed the GENIUS Act to achieve any such elevated goals, we should hope that it might leave behind the means needed for American democracy to reassert its economic and financial sovereignty and turn its currency into a tool to recover its prosperity and economic edge.

In the Meantime, Tremors
Given that half or more of all US dollars in circulation around the world are outside the United States, the administration's intended actions (there'll be ambushes; we'll find out) will cause major tremors in world markets, driving demand for "legitimate" dollars and rendering the "illegitimate" ones worthless. This will enable Trump and his team to exert pressure on governments around the world and dictate the terms at which their dollar balances may be converted into new stablecoins needed for trade settlement and reserve requirements.

I expect that Great Britain, the EU, and Canada won't be among the "most favored nations" in the near future, which will further worsen their fiscal positions, make it difficult for them to access global markets and procure commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, and others. This will lead to shortages and exacerbate inflationary pressures at home.

Reference:

Saturday, August 8, 2026

COT: More Downside Ahead for DXY | Tom McClellan

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell last week following coordinated US–Japan intervention in the yen. The drop pushed DXY back below the 100.50 support/resistance level, marking the move above that level as a failed breakout. 


Commercial traders of Dollar Index futures responded this week (per COT report data) by increasing their collective net short position. Looking back at other price tops on this chart, you may notice that when commercials do this—adding shorts after a downturn—there is a lot more downturn yet to come for the DXY.
 
Reference:
 
And every other 8-year top tends to be more significant (fatter arrows). 

Monday, July 13, 2026

S&P 500 Update: 80-Day Cycle Peak by Late-July | Christopher Grafton

General outlook: US Dollar Small Down (->80D trough). Gold Down (->20D trough). Oil Up (->20D peak). Copper Up (-> 80D peak). USDJPY Small Down (->80D trough). EURUSD Down (-> 20D trough). SPX E-minis Up (-> 80D peak). Nikkei futures Up (20D trough). Bitcoin Up (-> 20D peak). US Treasury Notes Up (20D trough).
  
S&P 500 E–Minis (ES) heading towards the next nominal 80-day cycle peak around late-July. Up.
 
US Dollar (DXY) close to an 80-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 
DXY is closing in on the next 80-day cycle trough. Price has just been rejected at the 20-day VTL, which likely marks the last 20-day cycle peak. Expecting minor pullback to the 40-day VTL and then further price expansion.

Bitcoin looking for the next 20-day cycle trough. Small Down.

 
In Bitcoin, the new 20-week cycle upswing is broadly driving price higher. We are looking for a soft pullback into the next 20-day cycle trough. 

Thursday, February 19, 2026

"Prepare for US War on Iran within 72–96 Hours" | US Col. Douglas Macgregor

The US is on the verge of launching an air and missile war against Iran. It appears likely to begin within the next 72 to 96 hours. The goal of this operation is to inflict such horrific destruction on Iranian infrastructure and society that the leadership is forced to submit. A key factor in this timing is the Ford Carrier Strike Group. Having recently passed through the Strait of Gibraltar, it is expected to reach its position in the Eastern Mediterranean by Sunday. This group provides essential reinforcement for air and missile defense in Israel. Once this defensive shield is in place, the trigger could be pulled as early as Monday, February 23.
 
Surpassing post-Iraq benchmarks, a massive US mobilization—anchored by 50 stealth fighters,
150 transports, 35 warships, and 50,000 personnel—converges with peak IDF combat and rescue
readiness to signal a 90% strike certainty within a Trump-projected weekend window.

The political objective is not necessarily regime change, but rather forcing Iran to comply with a specific list of demands originally outlined by Prime Minister Netanyahu and adopted by the Trump administration (total nuclear cessation, ballistic missile dismantlement, abandonment of the Axis of Resistance including Hezbollah and various Shiite populations in the Emirates, Yemen, and the Gulf).

It is unlikely that Iran will submit. Unlike the 12-day conflict seen last June, this would be a "fight to the finish." Iran has built immense redundancy into its command-and-control structures. If the leadership is neutralized, local commanders have standing orders to continue missile launches automatically. With an arsenal of thousands of missiles, Iran could potentially sustain launches 24 hours a day for weeks. Furthermore, their air defenses—potentially bolstered by untested but advanced Chinese technology—could prove far more capable than anticipated. They claim the ability to identify targets at ranges of 700 kilometers, reaching deep into Iraq, Syria, and the Caucasus.

Tehran’s blockade of the Hormuz choke point—the artery for 20% of global petroleum
—leveraged alongside Sino-Russian naval maneuvers, would catalyze a systemic global
meltdown of vertical oil prices and runaway inflation.
 
This conflict will not be a "cakewalk." We must anticipate significant casualties—potentially hundreds, if not a thousand, if things go poorly. Beyond the immediate battlefield, the geopolitical consequences are vast. We should expect Iran to activate proxies throughout the region and perhaps even in the Western Hemisphere via cooperation with drug cartels. Turkey is increasingly hostile toward Israel and the US meddling in what they consider their "backyard." A war would create a massive refugee crisis that Turkey desperately wants to avoid, potentially pushing them to provide direct or indirect support to Tehran. Russia and China have invested billions in Iran. While they may not intervene directly, they will likely provide the Iranians with every possible resource to ensure they survive the onslaught.

This war is tied to a larger struggle over the future of the global financial system. We are seeing the rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others), which represents an alternative to Western institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. If the US appears militarily weak or unable to achieve its objectives in Iran, it could accelerate the collapse of the US bond market. Experts have long warned that if the 10-year Treasury yield hits the 5% mark, it could signal "game over" for the current global financial order.

Wars are easy to start but notoriously difficult to end. If we maintain the position that we will not negotiate—labeling every opponent as a "Stalin" or "Hitler"—we leave ourselves no path to peace other than unconditional surrender, which is rarely achieved through airpower alone. We risk entering a conflict that we cannot stop, resulting in a strategic defeat similar to Vietnam.

 
 
Munich Security Conference, February 14, 2026.
 
See also:

Sunday, January 4, 2026

US Decapitation Operation "Absolute Resolve" in Venezuela | Ron Aledo

The operation in Venezuela is a multi-agency effort aimed at regime change, intended to install a pro-US, easily controlled government and eventually take indirect control of the country's oil. This is designed to maintain the US dollar's status as the world standard for global oil transactions. 
 
 
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro kidnapped in US military strike,
Caracas, January 3, 2026, 4:30 AM local time.
 
In recent years, China, Russia, and other BRICS nations have attempted—with some success—to shift global oil transactions away from the US dollar toward the Chinese Yuan. Trump views this as a threat to the strength of the dollar and US global hegemony. This operation against Venezuela makes such a move away from the dollar more difficult.

 
Operation "Absolute Resolve" was a multi-agency effort involving US intelligence agencies, the military, law enforcement, and the Department of Justice. The steps of the operation were likely as follows:
 
1. CIA and DIA Intelligence Covert Actions: The intelligence agencies recruited dozens of Venezuelan military personnel, primarily Generals and Colonels in charge of Nicolás Maduro’s security and the air defenses of Caracas. Additionally, the CIA, DIA, and NSA provided real-time intelligence for the military operation, including the locations of air defenses, military leaders loyal to Maduro, and the movement of bodyguards and security systems. 
 
The US war machine struck Venezuela just hours after President Maduro met
Chinese envoy Qiu Xiaoqi on January 2 to renew 600 bilateral trade deals.
 
2. Military Action: The US military destroyed multiple targets, likely air defense systems and command-and-control centers manned by military and political elements loyal to Maduro. This was a massive attack that neutralized all air defenses in the area and disabled military units that could have protected Maduro. US Delta Force arrived via helicopter at Maduro's location; facing neither bodyguards nor defenses, Maduro and his wife surrendered. They were then transported via helicopter to the USS Iwo Jima, a US Navy amphibious assault ship. As of 17:30 ET, Maduro arrived in New York escorted by civilian officers from the Department of Justice (DEA, US Marshals, and FBI). This is significant for Trump, as it depicts the mission as a "police/law enforcement" and "counternarcotics" operation.
 
» For Venezuela, we are prepared to give even our own blood! «
 
3. Transfer to the Department of JusticeThe US military transferred custody of Nicolás Maduro to law enforcement officers to maintain the appearance of a legal operation against an indicted narcotics trafficker. This provides legal authority to the mission and protects the Trump administration from future court challenges or potential impeachment attempts by a Democratic-controlled Congress following the November 2026 elections. This phase mirrors the actions taken against the former ruler of Panama, General Noriega.
 
» We are going to run the country. «
 
4. Transition Inside VenezuelaThe Trump administration will likely negotiate with the Vice President—now President—Delcy Rodríguez to complete a transition to a new pro-US government. While María Corina Machado is a potential candidate for the presidency, Trump may appoint someone more widely accepted by the Venezuelan military to reduce the risk of a counter-coup in the immediate future.
 
 
other areas, including the center of the capital Caracas.
 
As the Maduro government remains in charge—at least in appearance—via Delcy Rodríguez, the possibility of escalation remains high. If Trump negotiates a peaceful transition with Rodríguez, the crisis may be resolved without violence. However, if Rodríguez resists due to pressure from pro-Maduro military elements or Cuban intelligence officers in Caracas, violence is likely. Trump may then push for a military coup against Rodríguez using CIA-recruited officers, supported by US airstrikes on the command posts of pro-Maduro generals.

» An attack of this nature undoubtedly has a Zionist tinge. «
 
Alternatively, Trump may leave Rodríguez as the nominal President if she agrees to follow all directives from the administration. However, the potential for unrest and armed resistance from segments of the population remains possible under all options.
 
» Trump's Plan A is the less bloody one. The people change 
hats very easily. The king is dead, long live the king. «
Ron Aledo on US Plans A and B for Venezuela, January 4, 2026.
 
Real Reason for the Operation: The primary motivation is likely an attempt to slow the efforts by Russia and China to replace the US dollar as the universal currency for oil transactions. Global oil trade is conducted in US dollars, which bolsters the dollar's strength and US global trade dominance. Recently, Russia, China, India, and other BRICS nations have challenged this by moving toward the Chinese Yuan. Trump views this as a threat to US dominance. By executing regime change, the US aims to install a friendly, manageable government in Venezuela and secure indirect control over its massive oil reserves, thereby reinforcing the dollar's position.
 
the most significant geopolitical realignments of the 21st century. «

» Vassalize Mexico, to complete a North American internal
economic circulation, replacing China in its supply chain. «

Secondary Objectives: A secondary goal is the defeat of the Cuban regime. By cutting the flow of Venezuelan oil and funding to Cuba, the regime will likely collapse within a year, potentially leading to a negotiated transition and a new pro-US government on the island.

 
It is important to note that Tulsi Gabbard and Vice President J.D. Vance were likely not active participants in this operation. The primary driver was Marco Rubio, who has long promised the fall of the Venezuelan and Cuban governments. Rubio views this as a "victory card" for a 2028 vice-presidential or presidential bid, potentially replacing J.D. Vance on the ticket.
 

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Silver and Commodities: The Case for Long-Term Investment | Andrew Hoese

Silver's recent surge marks the early stage of a major bull market, driven by long-term structural forces rather than short-term speculation. I challenge analysts who date macro bull cycles from 2000 due to recency bias, arguing instead that the true departure from sound money began with the Federal Reserve's establishment or the post-1933 era of gold confiscation and the Great Depression. 

Silver/S&P 500 ratio (XAGUSD/SPX, monthly closes, log scale), 1909-2025.
 
The Silver/S&P 500 ratio shows a double bottom breaking higher in 2020 after decades of decline, confirming a long-term uptrend. This aligns with a medium-term squeeze and short-term breakout, creating ideal conditions for significant gains. Short-term pullbacks, though possible after the recent advance, are immaterial against these broader supports. Trading the short term without long-term alignment poses the primary risk.
 
Broader macro dynamics reinforce this outlook. A weakening US dollar is prompting rotation into precious metals (Silver, Gold, Platinum), emerging markets (e.g., Africa and Latin America ETFs), and commodities. Declining US shale oil production—the first year-over-year drop in history—signals supply constraints that could drive substantial inflation, necessitating further money printing, higher rates, and accelerated dollar depreciation in a self-reinforcing cycle favoring hard assets.
 
Silver/Gold ratio (XAGUSD/XAUUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1931-2025. 
 
S&P 500/Silver (SPX/XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1890-2025.
 
S&P 500/Gold (SPX/XAUUSD, monthly closes, log scale), 1884-2025.
 
 
Silver (XAGUSD, monthly closes, log scale): Long-term Cup and Handle breakouts with 10x price targets, 1800-2025.
 
Supporting evidence appears in parallel breakouts: gold miners versus the S&P 500, Silver versus Gold (a massive base signaling outperformance), and currencies like the Swiss franc against the dollar—all linked primarily to dollar weakness rather than isolated fundamentals. I advise against complexity via frequent trading, premature profit-taking, or asset class rotations. Instead, acquire undervalued assets and hold through the cycle. This commodity upswing is nascent; base metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Zinc, Lead), energy, and agriculture should join precious metals higher in 2026.
 
Successful investing requires aligning three timeframes: short-term (highly volatile and news-driven), medium-term (a few years, moderately stable), and long-term (a decade or more, frequently ignored). The greatest opportunities emerge when all are bullish. While short-term timing is notoriously difficult—explaining widespread losses among day traders—favorable long- and medium-term trends allow investors to endure temporary setbacks through patient holding of undervalued positions. 
 
On a logarithmic scale, Silver's advance remains in its infancy, poised for a sustained structural repricing distinct from prior cycles. Investors should resist selling early, as the ultimate magnitude may surpass expectations.

 
 
» An epic Silver fractal is playing out. « 
  
»
 A case can be made for $147. Big question is from where we get a correction. « 
Peter Brandt, December 26, 2025.
 
See also: