Showing posts with label WW3. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WW3. Show all posts

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Please, It’s Too Much Winning. We Can't Take It Anymore, Mr. President!


 » We're gonna win so much that you may even get tired of winning! You’ll say:
"Please, please, it’s too much winning. We can't take it anymore, Mr. President. It’s too much!" 
And I’ll reply: "No, it isn’t! We have to keep winning, we have to win more! «

 
 
POTUS 45 | 47 

  
 
 » Thursday and Friday were 2 consecutive days in the S&P of more than -4.5% declines,
and the NASDAQ fell more than -5%. This only happened during huge crashes. What's next? «

 

»
There’s a fantastic research paper called “Buffett’s Alpha”, which analyzes the “factors” that Buffett tilts towards. Buffett is exposed to the Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors, with 1.7x leverage. I highly recommend you read this. «
 
 
» Hurst Cycles: Short term cycles - 2-3 days higher for wave 4 and 20d high then another 2-3 days lower for wave 5
and 20d low will fit perfect. I think we have 20w high late March and now heading lower into 20w low. «
Krasi: Weekly Preview, April 5, 2025.
 

Friday, April 4, 2025

We Support Trump’s Tariffs. Here Is Why | Dimitri Simes Jr.

We support Trump’s tariffs. They are beneficial for humanity. They will accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire.
 
Economic Self-Sabotage: Tariffs raise costs for US consumers and businesses, resulting in higher prices for everything from cars to electronics. This impacts the average American's wallet, shrinking purchasing power and slowing growth. A weaker economy means less leverage on the world stage.

» Trump’s tariffs are beneficial for humanity. They will 
accelerate the collapse of the Globalist American Empire. «

Alienating Allies: Imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, or 20% on the EU, doesn’t exactly convey a “team player” mentality. Allies are already retaliating—China’s counter-tariffs and Europe’s threats are just the beginning. When your friends abandon you, your influence diminishes rapidly.



 » This is the formula Trump's team used to calculate tariffs. «

Dei
ndustrialized Reality
: The US is no longer the manufacturing giant it once was. Decades of offshoring have gutted its industrial base. Tariffs can’t protect industries that barely exist anymore. Steel mills and factories won’t magically return. Instead, higher costs will simply burden the service-heavy economy that remains.
 
Handing Rivals a Win: China is eager to capitalize. Tariffs push global trade away from the US, and Beijing is ready to fill the void, strengthening ties with Asia, Africa, South America, and even Europe. The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals like China and Russia gain ground.
 
 » The more the US isolates itself, the more rivals gain ground. «

Dol
lar’s Status at Risk
: The US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency relies on trust and trade. Tariffs breed chaos, retaliation, and currency wars, potentially leading to a push by BRICS nations to abandon the dollar. If this happens, America’s financial power could crumble—especially considering the historically high price of gold.
 
 » History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these. «

Ove
rreach and Collapse
: Empires fall when they overextend. Tariffs are a gamble; Trump is betting on short-term gains, but the long-term consequences could be a fractured trade system and a US too weakened to lead. History shows that empires don’t survive self-inflicted wounds like these.
 
Trump’s tariffs might seem like a bold move to “Make America Great Again,” but they could end up being a wrecking ball to its global influence. The empire is already on shaky ground, and tariffs could be the final push that sends it crashing down.

 
  


  
»
The problem is that Trump will be blamed for the recession/depression
the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. «
 
 
 » They’ve all been living in our house. Driving our car. They open our fridge, eat our food. 
They’ve taken advantage of us. You have to pay. « Unless you are Israel.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, April 6, 2025.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

Medvedev Watching the River Flow


» As it is, Russia barely does any trade with the US and EU, nearly all of it is under sanctions. Yet, our economy is growing 3% now. 
We’ll take the advice of Lao Tzu and sit by the river, waiting for the body of the enemy to float by.
The decaying corpse of the EU economy. «
 

A significant number of European politicians have succumbed to acute Russomania (also known as Russophobia)—a psychiatric disorder stemming from a bipolar affective exaggeration of Russia’s influence on the lives of Europe and Europeans. The condition typically alternates between two distinct phases: manic and depressive.

The manic stage is characterized by motor agitation, aggressiveness, and a tendency to provoke and attack stronger opponents without assessing one’s actual capabilities against the target of the attack. Sometimes, it ends in uncontrolled urination and defecation. Examples of patients in the manic stage include Macron, Starmer, Stubb, and several other European politicians.
 
From Third Reich to European Union.

The depressive phase is characterized by melancholy, emotional and physical fatigue, eating disorders, hypochondria, and self-harm. A patient in the depressive stage of Russomania may harm themselves, including self-sterilization (self-castration). At present, this stage is more commonly observed in women (Ursula von der Leyen, Kaja Kallas) or in hermaphrodites suffering from drug addiction (patients Zelensky, Saakashvili).

Treatment is symptomatic. Traditional medications are generally ineffective. The best therapeutic effect has been observed with the combined use of strong sedative drugs such as "Kalibr," "Onyx," "Iskander," and the powerful multi-component tranquilizer "Oreshnik." In particularly severe cases, nuclear neuroleptics such as "Yars" and "Sarmat" must be used.
 
 

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Red Alert: Is the US Economy Headed for a Devastating Recession?

1. Stock Markets are facing significant uncertainty. US stocks ended last week with a 2% decline. Goldman Sachs has assigned a 35% chance of a US recession within the next 12 months. The firm has also officially reduced its S&P 500 forecasts, citing the impact of higher tariffs and increasing recession risks.


2. The Trade Deficit reached unprecedented levels in February, ballooning to $147.9 billion. January's revised deficit also soared to $153.3 billion. This surge is primarily due to a significant increase in imports of industrial supplies, such as oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), gold, and steel, as producers prepare for an extended trade war.


3. The financial storm is intensifying. Since January 31st, the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index have dropped by 6.5% and 3.5%, respectively. This is a rare occurrence, as the last time both stocks and the Dollar fell in tandem by such a significant margin was in 2008.


4. The US Stock Market is experiencing historically unprecedented concentration levels, surpassing even the intense frenzy of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. The top 10 stocks now make up 36% of the S&P 500, approaching an all-time high.


5. Gold is gaining attention as a safe haven. According to Bank of America, 58% of fund managers believe gold performs best during a trade war. Over the past 12 months, $7 trillion has been added to gold's market capitalization, signaling significant economic uncertainty.


6. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a concerning forecast regarding the US debt. Federal deficits are expected to rise from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055. Public debt is projected to surge dramatically, growing from 100% of GDP in 2025 to a staggering 156% by 2055.


7. The Yield Curve typically shows higher yields on long-term US bonds compared to short-term bonds, reflecting the greater risk associated with lending money over a longer period. However, the US is currently experiencing an inversion of the curve, a historical pattern that has reliably preceded past recessions.


8. By February 2025, the U3 Unemployment Rate is projected to be 4.1%, while the U6 unemployment rate is expected to be 8.0%. Peter Schiff argues that the U3 rate appears low because it doesn't account for millions of unemployed individuals who aren't included in the official statistics. According to him, the US systematically hides the true extent of unemployment.


9. If Trump were to escalate with Tariffs, the impact on complex supply chains could be significant. Cars, for example, could see an additional $12,200 in costs due to tariffs, particularly those with parts from Canada or Mexico, which would face the steepest increases. Additionally, domestically produced goods that rely on imported materials would incur hidden tariff costs, further adding to the economic burden.


 

»
China is crushing the US in the technological innovation race. China’s economic model is superior to America’s. Chinese companies reinvest their profits into expanding production, employment, research, and development, while US companies reinvest their profits into stock buybacks. «Prof. Michael Hudson, November 21, 2024.
 

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Are Metals Kicking Off the Next Commodity Supercycle? | Alex Krainer

Market analysts tend to attribute great significance to the price of copper as an important leading economic indicator: if demand for copper is rising, the economy is growing (and vice versa). For that reason, they pay close attention to what "Dr. Copper" is saying. But last week, Gold also made new all time highs at around $3,050/oz. Silver rallied quite strongly as well, but it's still trading well below its ATH price, which was just shy of $50/tr.oz. in April of 2011. Here is what the whole COMEX metals complex looks like:
 
 COMEX Metals Complex (January 01, 2021 = 100)
 
There has been an overall rising trend in the metals, building gradually from late 2023. However, platinum barely moved thus far and palladium actually dropped by more than half in the last four years. The rise in Gold, Silver and Copper may be driven by inflation fears rather than economic growth. Those three metals are investors' preferred inflation hedges. Inflation hedging demand is likely what's behind the upward pressure on prices. 
 
Europe's great rearmament frenzy and the hundreds of billions of euros being allocated for it might end up adding more upward pressure to prices of industrial metals, as well as energy. In all, this will end up giving a strong boost to commodity price inflation in what could end up being a self-reinforcing cycle, triggering the next leg in the widely anticipated commodity supercycle.

US Commodity Price Index (1795 to Present)
with Major Inflation Peaks (Red Dots) & Major Inflation Troughs (Blue Dots).
Shown as 10 Year Rolling Compound Growth Rate with Polynomial Trend at Tops & Bottoms.

Long commodity cycles suggest that currency debasement and inflation may peak in the early 2040s. A commodity supercycle could reach its peak by 2045 (indicated by the last red dot), following a long cycle wave that spans approximately 55 years, with each cycle growing 5 years longer over the past 200 years. This pattern implies that the next peak will occur around 2045, 65 years after the peak in 1980.

None of this will happen overnight: the commodity supercycle is expected to span a period of 10 to 25 years, and it will be marked with many price rallies, followed by corrections and consolidations in that time. It should therefore be navigated with due caution and an iron discipline.

 

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Dumb & Dumber: US Senate Hearing on National Security | Judge Napolitano

 Tulsi Gabbard, National Intelligence Director & John Ratcliffe, CIA Director.
 
"God of all life, we seek Your guidance in a world filled with challenges. Today, prepare the members of this body [the US Senate Hearing on National Security] for the difficult work of solving life's riddles. Grant them the wisdom to find common ground and accomplish Your will in our nation and the world. Teach them to give of themselves for the good of others. Lord, amen."
 
Once upon a time, a transactional real estate shyster known as The Rabbi, a hillbilly, a crusader, a tattletale, a muy pendejo, and an aloha princess—each very ambitious and cunning—embarked on a journey to change the world forever. One day, they ...
 
 


» I often think about what has happened to the concept of truth in our society. People lie constantly, deceive endlessly, and spin narratives all the time. It has become so difficult to know what to believe anymore. This is a tragic situation. And by the way, this is most apparent when it comes to Israel. There, you are often not even allowed to discuss how Israel behaves, or how the Israeli issue relates to other issues. It’s simply dismissed, and as a result, people end up speaking about it in vague, indirect ways. The level of dishonesty in our society is truly staggering.

» The US is killing without purpose. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do it.
We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians.
«
 
We have been, and continue to be, complicit in supporting a genocide in Gaza since late 2023. If you look at our actions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, the number of people—civilians, including women, children, and the elderly—who have died is staggering. And when you look at how Israel behaves in the Middle East today, it's clear they are launching attacks in countries all around the region. And we support it. No one protests. They decide to attack southern Lebanon, and they do. They decide to attack Syria, and they do. We decide to attack the Houthis, and we do. We don’t care about the Constitution, the law, or the lives of civilians. This is the point we've reached. « John J. Mearsheimer, March 27, 2025.
 
See also: 

BlackRock Merz: "Germany is Back!" Yes, in the 1930s | Alex Krainer

On Friday, March 14, 2025, Germany's soon-to-be Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reached a deal with the Green Party to secure a massive infrastructure and defense spending bill. "Germany's back!" said jubilant Merz. "Germany is making its great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." The deal will exempt defense spending from the constitutional debt brake and create a €500 billion fund to finance projects outside of the normal budgetary spending. Among other things, this will enable Germany to boost aid to Ukraine.

» The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent. «
 Full disclosure: The moustache of BlackRock Merz is not real - it was skillfully photoshopped.

Today, the Bundestag will vote on constitutional amendments that could remove fiscal restraints and unleash a massive boost to military spending, which could ultimately reach up to €1.7 trillion. How much money is that? It's a cool €20,400 per man, woman, and child in Germany. Germany is back, indeed, but not exactly in a way anyone hoped for.

It's the 1930s all over again, and it's not just Germany. In France, Emmanuel Macron too is looking to boost the military-industrial complex, along with France's nuclear arsenal and future hypersonic missiles. Across the channel, Sir Keir is obsessing about conscriptions, scotching up "coalitions of the willing," and sending British troops to Ukraine. The EU is driving to rearm Europe and hijack ten trillion euros of European savings to militarize the old continent.

 » For the naturally cautious German nation to become a bunch of cannibals, 
it first had to sink into the economic misery and moral oppression of the 1920s. «
[...] The cost of this bonanza might come in the guise of early death for their children, who'll be forced to fight our future wars as, to paraphrase Herr Merz, they make their "great contribution to the defense of freedom and peace in Europe." Of course, we can trust the slogans; Merz is a BlackRock man, and all he wants is what’s best for all of us, without regard to the many billions BlackRock invested in Ukraine. It’s not about money, you see, it’s about freedom and peace.  
 
The moment French fighter jets collided during a training session.
Pilots ‘found unconscious’ - March 25, 2025. 
 
After all, when was the blood of innocents spilled for anything less than such lofty goals like civilization, enlightenment, progress, democracy, freedom, and peace? The fact that the whole juggernaut always turns out to be so profitable for all the usual suspects must be one of those mystery virtuous cycles of civilizational progress. They mobilize capital to defend peace and freedom, and then they make out like bandits every time!
 
 
"Britain is now outstripped only by Germany in its preparations for war with Russia. The soon-to-be new German Chancellor, Merz, has told the German people that they must spend 800 billion euros more on weapons for the coming war with Russia. This is the Russia that, only two years ago, was supplying Germany with cheap and dependable gas, on which their entire industrial and economic strength had been built." — George Galloway, March 23, 2025

See also:

Friday, March 21, 2025

Europe's Date with Destiny: Collapse by 2029 is Inevitable | Martin Armstrong

Comment by Hans: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. [...] I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

» From about May 15th 2025 on, Europe is going into war, 
Europe will lose, and the Euro will become extinct. «
Martin Armstrong, March 1, 2025.

Reply by Martin Armstrong: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’ forecasts [...] The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year [2026], and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital as soon as possible. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU. [...] Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital [by October 2025]. This is about taxes all over again.
 
» We are witnessing capital contracting in both the United States and Europe. «

[...] I have been warning that we are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe. The total outstanding government and corporate bonds globally have now exceeded $100 trillion in 2024, as reported by the OECD. As I have also been warning, the central banks have been neutered. They can no longer fight inflation by raising interest rates because government debt just explodes. Governments have NO INTENTION of ever paying off their debt. They think there is no end to this game.

 » We are approaching World War III as a distraction from the collapse of sovereign debt in Japan and Europe.
Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026. PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. 
Major recession globally into 2028. EU prepares for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029. «

[...] While central banks are cutting interest rates, borrowing costs remain much higher than before 2022’s rate hikes because the ECM, in particular, went to negative interest rates in 2014, which only encouraged governments to issue more debt. This all comes at a time when the EU wants to fund an army and prepare for war as a distraction from their inevitable collapse by 2029.

will wipe out Britain entirely. The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!! «
 
[...] Germany is heading into a very serious debt crisis for 2026, and this does not bode well for Europe or the Euro. Nearly HALF of ALL outstanding government debt among OECD countries and emerging markets and around ONE THIRD of corporate debt will mature by 2027. Our computer is showing PANIC Cycles in 2026 around the globe. The defaults come when you cannot sell the NEW debt to pay off the old. [...] Everything is coming to the point of a major Sovereign Debt default that the government will not survive. [...] Add the trade wars and what our model shows a major recession globally into 2028; it is hard to see how many countries can even make it to 2029.