Sunday, July 6, 2025

The S&P 500 Jumps 26% in 86 Calendar Days: What's Next? | Wayne Whaley

The S&P finished the 4th of July week at 6,279.35 and is now up 6.76% for 2025 and 13.4% over the last 12 rolling months (July 4 - July 4), currently residing at an All Time High for at least the three day weekend. 
 
You may recall that the S&P experienced an 18.9% selloff from the February 19th Close of 6,144.15 to the April 8th Close of 4,982.77, exceeding 20% if measured vs the April 8th intraday Low of 4,910.42. From that 4,982.77 Closing Low on April 8th, the S&P has now advanced 26.0%, doing so in less than a Quarter, 86 calendar days (April 8 - July 3) to be precise.  

The S&P surged 26% in just 86 days, reaching another all-time high, and has now risen 6.76% in 2025. 
Historical data shows similar rallies led to gains of 19.2%+ over the next year.
 
Looking back through post 1950 history, I can only find five prior occasions in which the S&P has advanced 25% in less than a Quarter and none of those five occasions were anywhere near an impending top. 

Certainly, one would prefer to have more than five data points from which to draw conclusions upon which to base one's market exposure but the magnitude and uniformity of the advances across the following 12 months in those five cases appears worthy of our respect. All five cases were positive over the following 1 to 12 months, up at least 19.2% one year later, 31.7% on average. None of the five cases experienced a 4% drawdown as measured from the signal Date.
 
July 5, 2025
 

Saturday, July 5, 2025

The Tale of the Leopard, the Impala, and the Hyena

The leopard had just brought down an impala—an expertly executed ambush, swift and silent. Wasting no time, it dragged the carcass toward the safety of the trees, its usual dining refuge. But just as it began its ascent, trouble arrived.

 In a grim twist of fate, the predator became prey.
 
A hyena had caught the scent and was closing in fast. Panting from the chase, the leopard started climbing, but the hyena lunged and latched onto the impala. The leopard lost its grip and tumbled to the ground. In a flash, the hyena wrestled the kill away and claimed the prize.

Still hungry and frustrated, the leopard followed from a distance, silently hoping for a second chance. But the hyena, proud and possessive, wasn't in a sharing mood. Then, it made a fatal mistake. As it tore into the impala’s belly and turned to gorge on the entrails, the leopard struck. With explosive speed, it seized the remaining carcass and bolted for the nearest tree. By the time the hyena looked up, the leopard was already halfway to the canopy.

The hyena had gambled on greed—and paid the ultimate price.
 
Enraged, the hyena jumped and clawed at the trunk, desperate to reclaim its stolen feast. But it couldn’t climb. And every time it came close, the leopard hoisted the kill just a bit higher. Eventually, it nestled into the upper branches, safe, fed, and victorious. Below, the hyena waited, hungry and humiliated.

But the story doesn’t end there: Once the leopard had eaten its fill, it descended from the tree and faced the starving hyena directly. Weakened and slow, the hyena stood no chance. The leopard attacked—and this time, it didn’t just reclaim its pride. It killed the hyena. In a grim twist of fate, the predator became prey. The leopard dragged the lifeless body up the tree. One more meal. One less threat. The tables had turned—through patience, cunning, and perfect timing. The hyena had gambled on greed—and paid the ultimate price.

The NAAIM Index vs the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Index is at about a level which in the past resulted in corrections.
 
 
The NAAIM Exposure Index, compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers, measures the average equity exposure of its member firms, reflecting their sentiment toward US equity markets. It ranges from -200% (fully leveraged short) to +200% (fully leveraged long), with 0% indicating a neutral stance (cash or hedged). As a contrarian indicator for swing trading, it’s often used to gauge market sentiment extremes, with the assumption that overly bullish or bearish positioning by active managers signals potential market reversals. 
 
However, its limitations—such as limited predictive power, small sample size, manager variability, and volatility—mean it’s not a standalone solution. While it can enhance market analysis, traders should approach it cautiously, recognizing that other indicators like the VIX may offer stronger contrarian signals for profitable swing trading.
 
 
 
Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.38 on July 3, 2025
 
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