S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact: Q3 3.5-Year Hurst Cycle Low | Namzes

The big picture remains unchanged: I still expect a bear market, with a buyable 3.5-year Hurst cycle low in Q3 2026. The 20-week cycle low arrived on schedule—just one day after the ideal March 27 (Fri) window outlined in my 2026 forecast.

 Chart 1: The new 20-week cycle could run higher into late May. The current 40-day cycle is now about halfway through.

I didn’t expect new all-time highs—my plan was for a rejection at the golden pocket retracement. Instead, a mix of CTA driven mechanical buying and Trump playing the market like a violin produced the blow-off top I’d anticipated back in February. The market always finds a way to humble you. 

 

The current 40-day cycle is roughly halfway complete (Chart 1). Next week should clarify whether the rally has further upside or is topping out. In my base bear case, April 17 was flagged as a potential turning point, but so far there are no signs of buying pressure slowing. Options expiration (OPEX) often serves as a pivot—either on the day itself or shortly after.

 
From a Hurst cycle perspective, the S&P 500 may still have several percent of upside left. That said, I’m not chasing it. As in February, I’ve stepped aside—risk/reward isn’t compelling for my multi-month holding framework, especially with weekend headline risk in play.

Timing-wise, the next 40-day low is due around May 7 (Thu). That should provide clearer insight into structure—namely the depth of the pullback and the strength of the rebound into late May (Chart 2). This sequence would then feed into a larger decline toward a higher-degree summer low. Leading indicators continue to point to a more meaningful downside move in the weeks ahead, so I remain heavily in cash.

  

 Chart 2: Options expiration (OPEX) often acts as a pivot, either on the day itself or a few days after. 

Next 40-day low due around May 7 (Thu), followed by a rebound into late May.

 

Short-term models have triggered a buy signal. If you’re leaning bullish, the new 20-week cycle could extend into late May, including a typical retest of the May 40-day low. However, given the negative pressure from the dominant 3.5-year cycle, my base case is that this rally is a false breakout—likely forming another divergent top and unlikely to persist beyond April.

It’s extremely rare for a 40-week cycle (top panel, Chart 3) to undercut its prior low and still go on to make new highs. In S&P 500 history, I could identify only one comparable instance. The usual structure in such cases is an M-shaped pattern with a clear bearish bias, as highlighted by the arrows.

 

Chart 3: It’s rare for a 40-week cycle to undercut its low and still go on to make a new high.

Bottom panel shows 20-week cycle, expected to synchronize with the 40-week cycle around July. 

That’s exactly how I expected the current 20-week cycle to unfold. That said, we now need price action to confirm emerging bearish signals. A bullishly configured cycle could still extend into June. While models have triggered a buy signal, participation remains narrow and volume is light. In my view, a downside resolution over the next few weeks remains the highest-probability outcome—but it still requires confirmation. Cycles define the setup; price action and models provide the trigger. The bottom panel shows the 20-week cycle, which I expect to synchronize with the 40-week cycle around July.

To illustrate what typically happens after a 20-week cycle low when the 40-week cycle has already failed, we can look back at Q1 2022 (Chart 4). In January of that year, the price made a lower low, confirming that the 40-week cycle had failed and signaling the start of a larger-degree correction.

 

Chart 4: Typical outcome after a 20-week low when the 40-week cycle has already failed.

 

This was followed by a series of bounces that retraced some of the decline but failed to make new highs. The market then rolled over and established new lows. This pattern is typical behavior roughly 99% of the time.That’s why I’ll be watching closely to see whether the current breakout turns out to be a deviation that ultimately resolves to the downside over the next few weeks, especially with the longer 3.5-year cycle exerting downward pressure.

I'm watching for a potential Wyckoff upthrust after distribution (UTAD) to play out over the next few weeks (Chart 5). For the bulls, it's critical to keep any pullbacks shallow and hold above the 2026 opening price at SPY 685.71, as well as above the overall consolidation range. 

 

Chart 5: Watching for a potential Wyckoff UTAD to unfold in the coming weeks.

Doing so will help avoid the setup looking like a classic false breakout. I've also overlaid the 2022 bear market in yellow for reference, in case the bearish thesis unfolds and we see a similar structure develop.

Reference:
Namzes (April 17, 2025) - S&P 500 Bear Outlook Intact – Q3 3.5-Year Cycle Low.

See also:
Namzes (January 10, 2026) - 2026 Hurst Cycles Playbook for the S&P 500. 
Namzes (January 1, 2026) - 2026 US Stock Market Forecast: 25% Bear Market and Recovery.

Krasi (April 19, 2026) - This is a 4-year cycle high—don’t get too excited.

David Hickson (April 7, 2026) - Twenty-Week Cycle Trough Or Greater? (video)

S&P 500 After Rapid 10% Gains: +17% Avg One-Year Return | Alex Krainer

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.

Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.

A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multiple instances of these "rapid +10% bounces," marked by green and red arrows. In most cases, these moves were followed by continued upside, though there were notable exceptions—such as the period around 2000.

 

Alex Krainer argues that the current setup differs meaningfully from the 2000  episode. He notes the absence of broadly synchronized overbought conditions among megacap stocks today, and emphasizes that the more significant declines in 2000 occurred only after the index had already fallen below its 40-week moving average.
 

S&P 500 RSI readings above 70 have led to pullbacks in 8 of the last 10 cases over two years, with the other two resulting in flat consolidation. The daily chart (May 2024–April 2026) marks these signals with red arrows for pullbacks and one green arrow, alongside recent price action near 7,000. This suggests an 80% likelihood of a near-term pullback, though prior corrections since the 2025 rally have been relatively mild.

Reference:
Alex Krainer (April 16, 2026) - Rapid S&P 500 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. 

 

Jeffrey Hirsch notes that the S&P 500's 7.57% gain in the first 10 trading days of April 2026 ranks as the second-strongest start to April since 1950.

Gains averaged +10.8% for the rest of the year, with full-year returns positive in 91.7% of cases (+16.2% avg.).

Historically, such powerful early-April momentum has been a bullish signal: in 20 of 24 comparable cases (83.3%), the market delivered further gains over the remainder of the year, with an average advance of +10.8%. Full-year returns were positive in 22 of those 24 instances (91.7%), averaging +16.2%. Hirsch’s data also segments April starts into performance tiers, with 2026 firmly in the top group—where subsequent returns have consistently outpaced those seen in the middle and bottom tiers.

Classic S&P 500 Smart Money vs Dumb Money Rebound Setup | Alex Krainer

A contrarian signal is flashing for the S&P 500 near 6,477. Smart Money Confidence (blue line) is climbing to 0.6 while Dumb Money Confidence (red line) drops to 0.4. This split occurs amid Extreme Fear, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index at 18, despite broader bearish technicals and geopolitical volatility.

» Smart money confidence is growing while dumb money confidence falls. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index has hit
Extreme Fear. Yes, the setups across the board look ugly, but chasing shorts here is riskier than remaining patient. «

 

Historically, this exact divergence—rising institutional confidence against falling retail optimism—has preceded S&P 500 rebounds roughly 70% of the time, per SentimenTrader backtests. It suggests the current sell-off may be exhausted, offering a high-probability upside reversal once fear peaks.

Reference:
Alex Krainer, March 26, 2026.

 

March 27, 2026 Update: This level of Extreme Fear (10) has been seen at previous bottoms, including those that preceded bear market rallies in 2022. The shortest bounce before lower lows occurred in 2025. A bullish divergence is now appearing, which validates the thesis. 

See also:
Branimir Vojcic (March 23, 2026) - S&P 500 Outlook: Late March Low, May Peak, October Low.

 

 

US Stock Indexes Trigger Rare March-December Low Indicator | Jeff Hirsch

Originated by Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst in the 1970s, the December Low Indicator is based on the Dow closing below its December closing low in the first quarter of the New Year. DJIA’s December closing low was 47,289.33 on 12/1/2025.

  

See the Historical Analogue 1966 vs. 2026
in @Fiorente2's "The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited."

 

The indicator also applies to the S&P 500, which closed below its December closing low of 6,721.43 (set on 12/17/2025). Historically, years when the S&P 500’s December Low Indicator was breached alongside a down January Barometer were weaker years. When the January Barometer was positive and the December Low was crossed, years tended to be stronger — which is the situation we find ourselves in today.

 

When the market has closed below its December closing low in the first quarter of the year, the market has dropped, on average, another 13.5% on the S&P 500 and 10.9% for the DJIA from the trigger point. Now that the December Low Indicator has been triggered on both the DJIA and S&P 500, some caution is in order.

 

Why This March Trigger Is Rare

Of the 36 December Low Indicator triggers on the S&P 500, this is only the fourth to occur in March, and the sixth among the 39 DJIA triggers. We’ve broken out the S&P DLI triggers by month in the accompanying tables above.

 

It’s not surprising that most January and February triggers were accompanied by a down January Barometer. Whereas all four March DLI triggers — including yesterday’s — came in years when the January Barometer was positive.

Here’s how the three trigger months compare historically:

• January triggers (24 occurrences): Average further decline of 12.92%; full year up 14 of 24 times, average gain of 1.30%
• February triggers (8 occurrences): The worst group — average further decline of 17.26%; down 6 of 8 full years, average loss of 8.13%
• March triggers (3 previous occurrences): The mildest — average further decline of 8.12%; one year up, two down, average full-year loss of 3.70%

The historical data suggests March triggers carry less downside risk than those in January or February — a meaningful distinction given today’s trigger.

 

The January Barometer Still Points Higher

When the S&P 500 January Barometer is positive — as it was this year — the full year is up 41 of 46 years (89.1% of the time) for an average gain of 16.95%. The next 11 months are up 87.0% of the time for an average gain of 12.24%.

 

When it’s down, the year is up only 50% of the time with an average loss of 1.75%, and the next 11 months average a paltry 2.07% gain.

 

Bottom Line

While the current situation suggests the market is likely to go lower in the near term, the positive January Barometer and the broader fundamental and macro backdrop remain supportive. When the indexes and your spirits are down and contrary sentiment indicators reach extreme bearish levels — a VIX above 40, Investors Intelligence Bearish % exceeding Bullish % — that’s historically the point at which the market turns higher again. Stay cautious in the near term, but keep the longer-term odds in perspective.

 

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 13, 2026) - Iran Conflict Triggers a Rare March December Low Indicator.

 

What happens once the SPY closes down four weeks in a row.

 

What happens once the weekly RSI(2) closes at 5 or below. 

See also:

@Fiorente2 (March 16, 2026) - Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026. In: The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited.

The 60-Year Cycle in US Stock Indexes Revisited | @Fiorente2

Multiple long-term cyclical frameworks suggest that US equity markets may be entering a period of heightened volatility and potential trend transition during 2026. The convergence of several key cycles—including the 60-year cycle, the 22-year cycle, and planetary timing structures involving Saturn, Venus–Uranus, and Jupiter–Saturn—points to a series of possible inflection points beginning in March 2026 and extending through mid-year. Measured from the April 2025 market low, these cycles begin to cluster between March and July 2026. While the February 2026 highs across several indices may represent an important crest, the possibility of cycle inversions or secondary tops remains open.

 

Long-Term Cycles

A central structural reference is the 60-year cycle measured from the April 2025 low. Historically, this cycle has corresponded with major turning points in US equity markets. Notably, the NYSE Composite reached a comparable high exactly 60 years earlier. However, the present market has not yet produced the decline typically associated with this cycle. Instead, market behavior may be following the 22-year cycle more closely, suggesting a gradual and phased decline that could extend into mid-August 2026.

Chart 1 — NYSE Composite and Long-Term Cycles: Interaction between the 

60-year and 22-year cycles measured from the April 2025 market low.

An earlier trough may occur near the end of June, corresponding with approximately 15 degrees of heliocentric Saturn movement measured from the April 7, 2025 low. A late-June to early-July 2026 trough would also coincide with three Venus–Uranus heliocentric oppositions projected from the April 2025 bottom. Within this framework, a shorter-term inflection point appears around March 13, 2026, where a temporary rebound may occur.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The DJIA exhibits several notable cyclical alignments. The index reached a peak in early February that squared out along a Saturn 1×2 timing line, aligning closely with the equivalent date 60 years earlier. In addition, the heliocentric synodic cycle of Venus and Uranus has tracked recent turning points with remarkable precision, with several inflection points occurring within only a few days of major price reversals.

Chart 2 — DJIA Saturn Timing and Venus–Uranus Synodic Cycle: Alignment of Saturn timing

lines and Venus–Uranus heliocentric aspects with recent market turning points.

 

S&P 500

Applying Saturn timing lines derived from prior highs and lows to the S&P 500—combined with the Venus–Uranus synodic cycle—suggests the index may be declining toward a potential trough around mid-March 2026 during an initial corrective phase. This move could represent the first leg of a broader cyclical decline associated with either the 60-year or 22-year cycle. Historically, these cycles often move in similar directional phases for extended periods, reinforcing the prevailing market trend.

Chart 3 — S&P 500 Cyclical Timing Structure: Saturn timing lines and the Venus–Uranus

synodic cycle suggest a possible corrective phase developing in early 2026.

Nasdaq Composite

Because the Nasdaq Composite did not exist 60 years ago, the analysis relies primarily on the 22-year cycle. A Saturn planetary fan projected from the January high provides a framework for estimating potential downside trajectories should the current downtrend continue. While the 60-year cycle likely influences the broader market environment, its historical behavior cannot be directly evaluated for the Nasdaq. The Venus–Uranus heliocentric synodic cycle projected from the April 2025 low nevertheless identifies several well-defined inflection points that align closely with recent price movements.

Chart 4 — Nasdaq Composite with Saturn Planetary Fan: Potential trend pathways

using Saturn planetary fan geometry and Venus–Uranus timing.

Historical Analogue: 1966 vs. 2026

A striking historical comparison can be observed when examining the 1966 market cycle. In 1966, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a peak near 1,000 on February 9 and subsequently declined to approximately 500 by October 10. Overlaying the current 2026 decline from the February 9 peak onto the 1966 pattern reveals a broadly similar percentage trajectory thus far. While historical analogues should be treated cautiously, the comparison provides a useful framework for evaluating the potential magnitude of the present correction.

Chart 5 — DJIA Historical Comparison: 1966 vs. 2026. Overlay analysis shows

similarities between the 1966 decline and the current market structure.

Planetary Time Clusters

Market volatility often increases when multiple planetary geometries and transit aspects occur within a narrow time window. The chart below aggregates cumulative hard aspects (0°, 90°, and 180°) of planetary transits together with major planetary geometries. These elements form Time Cycle Clusters, which historically correspond with periods of heightened volatility and increased market activity.

Chart 6 — DJIA and Planetary Time Cycle Clusters: Periods historically associated with elevated market volatility.

Jupiter–Saturn Structural Cycle

Another important framework is the long-term Jupiter–Saturn cycle. Projecting three Jupiter–Saturn cycles forward from the October 1966 market low produces an alignment in May 2026 corresponding with the original 1966 trough. This alignment could represent either a high or a low. However, because the second Jupiter–Saturn cycle corresponded with a market peak, the probability may favor a cyclical trough around May 2026.

Chart 7 — DJIA Jupiter–Saturn Cycle Projection: The chart projects three full Jupiter–Saturn cycles

forward from the October 1966 market low, resulting in a precise alignment marked in May 2026 

that corresponds to the original 1966 trough.

 

The Jupiter–Saturn synodic cycle measured from the October 10, 1966 low—using 90-degree increments—aligned closely with the 2007 market peak, occurring just 13 days before the October 10, 2007 high. Extending the third segment of this cycle projects forward to May 20, 2026, which occurs 18 years and 7 months after the 2007 peak. This represents 1080 degrees of Jupiter–Saturn motion, or three full cycles measured from the October 1966 low.

Since 2018, several major market crests—including those in 2021, early 2022, and February 2026—have aligned with a Jupiter planetary line drawn through these peaks. If this pattern continues, the February 2026 high may represent an interim crest similar to the 2022 peak, with a potential trough forming between April and July 2026. The current decline may represent only the initial phase of a broader corrective structure similar to the 1966 market decline, although confirmation remains premature.

Macroeconomic conditions remain relatively resilient, and a rapid improvement in geopolitical conditions could quickly restore bullish sentiment. Such developments could produce a secondary market top within the April–June window. At present, the balance of cyclical evidence suggests that the February 2026 peak may represent an important market crest. However, as with all cyclical models, inversions remain possible and should be considered within the broader analytical framework.

Reference:

@Fiorente2 (March 15, 2026) - Gann Master Cycle: The 60-year cycle revisited, Part 2. 
@Fiorente2 (March 8, 2026) - Gann Master Cycle: The 60-year cycle revisited, Part 1.

 

See also:
W.D. Gann (1950s) - Major Time Cycles in the Stock Market. 

Extreme Backwardation in VIX Futures | Tom McClellan

As of March 6, 2026, the VIX futures market is in extreme backwardation. The spot VIX has surpassed the highest futures contract by more than 10%, signaling acute near-term panic relative to expectations of future stability.

When the price of a near-month contract exceeds those of
further-dated contracts, the market is in backwardation.

Oil futures for April 2026 delivery trading above $90, while the

contract 11 months out (March 2027) remains significantly lower at $66.50.

 

Blue annotations on the VIX chart above highlight similar negative spreads during key 2025–2026 events, such as tariff-induced sell-offs, employment revisions, geopolitical tensions, and the Bitcoin crash. These spikes often coincided with S&P 500 pullbacks that marked local bottoms before subsequent recoveries. While this pattern suggests current volatility may precede near-term stabilization, the broader market trajectory remains contingent on the resolution of underlying stressors like trade policy and global conflict.

 

Reference:
Tom McClellan (March 6, 2026) - Extreme Backwardation in VIX Futures.
Tom McClellan (March 6, 2026) - Iran War Brings Severe Oil Futures Backwardation.

 

McCelllan Oscillator vs S&P 500 as of March 6, 2026.
 

Expecting a multi-month correction with 20–25% drawdown across the board.

See also:

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for March 2026.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - March Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.    
Branimir Vojcic (February 23, 2026) - VIX Cycles: Forecasting Volatility Peaks Through 2032.

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa. 

S&P 500 Forecast for March 2026 | Nicholas D. Savino

Following a brief correction through March 3 (Tue), the forecast projects a rally toward a peak around March 9 (Mon). This high is expected to be followed by a decline into March 16 (Mon), a rally leading into March 27 (Fri), and subsequent weakness heading into the end of the month.

 

March 3 (Tue) Low, March 9 (Mon) High, 

March 16 (Mon) Low, March 27 (Fri) High.

 

This forecast focuses on directional timing and is not scaled for price.

 

Reference:

Nicholas D. Savino (March 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for March 2026.   

[check for updates] 

 

S&P 500, NASDAQ, DJIA, and Russell 2000 (daily bars) and 20-week cycle.

 

S&P 500 (daily bars) vs 22-year and 60-year cycles.

 
See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 25, 2026) - February Stock Market Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (February 22, 2026) - S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa.

Larry Williams (1998) - The Oops! Reversal Setup.

S&P 500 Hurst Analysis: Projection into Mid-March 20-Week Cycle Low

The current 40-week cycle began at the November 21, 2025 trough. Its primary components are two 20-week cycles, which averaged 16.9 weeks (118 days = Delta cycle) over recent iterations. 

 

 SPY (daily candles), September 2025 to May 2026.

The low of the first 20-week cycle is expected to occur between March 17 and March 19 (Tue–Thu).
 

► 10-day cycle (7.6 days) low = Feb 24 (Tue)
► 20-day cycle (14.7 days) low = Mar 3 (Tue)
► 40-day cycle (31 days) low = Mar 17 (Tue)
► 80-day cycle (57 days) low = Mar 18 (Wed)
► 20-week cycle (118 days) low = Mar 19 (Thu)

 

The 40-week cycle (and 18-month cycle) trough is projected into late July (±).

 

See also:

TPR (2025) - J.M. Hurst’s Cyclic Theory.

 TPR (August 5, 2025)  - Insights into J.M. Hurst's 40-Week Cycle AKA the 9-Month Cycle. 

Larry Williams (February 19, 2026) - 2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa. 

2026 Market Update: Crude, NatGas, Metals, Stocks, Cocoa | Larry Williams

Crude Oil

Larry Williams identifies a setup for potential decline, noting that commercials (via Commitments of Traders (COT) Report red line in the chart below) have ceased aggressive buying and are exiting the market, with the line declining after marking a recent bottom. 

 

The public (green line) has become heavy buyers, signaling vulnerability. His proprietary valuation indicator (gold line, based on Crude-Gold Ratio) shows overvaluation, similar to prior pullbacks. As a conditional trader, he views this as a setup but requires trend change confirmation. 

 

 Downward setup via overvaluation and commercial selling; imminent cyclical

downturn, low in March/June needing trend confirmation for shorts.

 

Cyclically (weekly charts), a downturn is imminent, with a low expected in about three months (around March or June), historically good for longs. He advises watching for sell signals in energy markets, emphasizing cycles for bias and timing.

Natural Gas

Williams was seeking a short-term buy opportunity but canceled orders due to lack of upward movement today, anticipating a possible bounce. He stresses evaluating the COT report to determine if commercials or the public are buying, cross-referenced with open interest for directional insight. While acknowledging a seasonal pattern, he deems it less significant than current buyer/seller dynamics via the COT.

Gold

Williams admits a prior bad call, expecting a cyclical high aligned with Bitcoin's peak, but Gold held firm. Currently, commercials (COT red line) are unusually buying the decline at high levels, a position not typical and reminiscent of past buy opportunities. He notes recent shorts in Silver and Copper have shifted.

 

Gold bullish from commercial decline-buys and March cycles; 

Silver similar with rally soon, upside late Feb/March on trend change.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) and longer-term (blue) cycles converge in March, establishing a substantive buy point without implying a drop to chart lows. This timeframe warrants bullish attention, pending trend change.

Silver

Williams observes that Silver exhibits strong similarities to Gold, historically regarded as the "poor man's gold" but now akin to the "expensive man's gold." It follows a comparable cyclical pattern, indicating the onset of a rally within the ensuing couple of weeks from the time of discussion. Aligning with his year-end forecast, he anticipated initial downward pressure, followed by an upward shift around late February or early March. He emphasizes restraint in entry, requiring confirmation of an upside trend change—such as a trend line breakout or moving average signal—within that timeframe to qualify the trade.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Disparity in Advance/Decline, and Why Dow is Stronger

Williams affirms a bull market persisting through 2025 into mid-2027, dismissing pessimists based on repeated past errors. The advance-decline line (net cumulative advances vs. declines) is at new highs while stocks are not—an anomaly he has rarely seen, historically followed by higher prices, providing a fundamental bullish rationale. 

 

 

Bull to mid-2027 via advance-decline highs; Dow stronger than

S&P on value focus, mid-March cyclical buy/rally.

Comparing charts below: Dow Jones futures show a higher low and greater strength than S&P E-minis, attributed to fewer "hot stocks" like the Magnificent Seven in the Dow, which suffered hits. 

 

The Dow better represents quality and value, with funds shifting there for protection over speculation. As a trader, Williams is long Dow contracts, not S&P, due to Dow's outperformance. 

Cocoa

Williams sees a buy setup, though not yet long, awaiting trend change. Commercials (top pane red line) are adding positions amid declining total open interest (black line)—indicating others exit, a rare bullish "bubble up." Valuation (gold line, Cocoa-Gold Ratio) shows undervaluation, contrasting prior overvalued tops. 

 

 

Rally from commercial "bubble up" buys and undervaluation; 

short-term immediate, major in June/July with trend entry patience.

 

Cyclically, short-term (red) suggests immediate rally start; longer-term (blue) aligns with short-term around June/July for ideal entry and bigger move.

 

Reference:
NinjaTrader Live (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Market Outlook with Larry Williams. (video)
 

See also:

Foundation for the Study of Cycles (February 17, 2026) - Larry Williams on Inflation and the Coming Bear Market. (video) 

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

Namzes (February 18, 2026) - 2026 Crude Oil Projection.
Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - 2025-2027 Oil Price Decline Linked to Solar Cycle Activity.

Vladimir A. Belkin (2024) - Strong Inverse Correlation between Ap Index and Gold Price.