Showing posts with label Nasdaq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nasdaq. Show all posts

Monday, December 1, 2025

December Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Markets | Jeff Hirsch

December trading is traditionally shaped by holiday sentiment, with a general buying bias, though early-month markets can be choppy due to tax-loss selling and year-end adjustments. Historically, the first trading day of December has been bearish for the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 over the past 21 years, with the Russell 2000 seeing even sharper declines.

Choppy First Half, Then Year-End Rally.
 
The first half of December is typically choppy, with early gains often fading into mid-month. Then holiday tailwinds usually begin to dominate, lifting the major indexes. A brief consolidation in the Santa Claus rally around December 25 is common, even as the market continues to push toward higher prices into year-end.
 
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Monday, November 3, 2025

November Post-Election Year Seasonality: Best Month of the Year | Jeff Hirsch

November is typically a bullish month, with twelve bullish days based on the S&P 500. This includes a streak of six consecutive bullish days starting on the first trading day (Nov 3 (Mon)). Although historically a bullish month, November does have its weak points.

November Performance of US Stock Indices: Recent 21-Year (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).
November Performance of US Stock Indices: Last 21-Years (2004-2024) and Post-Election Years (1950-2021).

The DJIA and Russell 2000 tend to exhibit the greatest strength at the beginning and end of the month. The Russell 2000, in particular, is notably bearish on its 12th trading day (Nov 18 (Tue)); the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the past 41 years (since 1984). On this day, the Russell 2000's average decline is 0.41%.

Recent weakness around Thanksgiving (Nov 27 (Thu)) has shifted the strength of the DJIA and S&P 500 to align more closely with that of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, with the majority of bullish days occurring at the start and end of the month. The best way to trade around Thanksgiving is to go long on any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.
 
Reference: 
 
S&P 500 Seasonailty First and Last Half of each Month (1928-2024). 
 
 
  
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Friday, October 10, 2025

Hurst 40-Week Cycle High in US Stock Indices | High of 2025

The Dow Jones reached its peak in the Hurst 40-Week Cycle as expected on Friday, October 3, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit their highs on Thursday, October 9. This marks the likely high for 2025.
 
Schematic Hurst 40-Week Cycle in the S&P 500 (daily bars; April 7, 2025 to January 1, 2026). Please note that, in any composite or summation of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles become troughs in the resulting summation curve (thick black line).
In the S&P 500, the breakdown on Friday, October 10, expanded to four times the average true range of the past 20 trading days, erasing the lows of the previous three weeks in a sharp, 7-hour move down to August's high. The index closed down 3.36% on the highest volume since August 1, while the NASDAQ dropped 4.24% and the DJIA fell 2.44%.
 
The 20-Day Cycle Low is projected to occur between October 10-13 (Friday to Monday), followed by a brief 2-3 day bounce. Afterward, the market is expected to continue its downward trajectory into the next nominal 20-Day, 40-Day, and 80-Day Cycle Lows around October 24-27 (Friday to Monday).

A brief recovery is anticipated during the first week of November, before the market continues downward into the next 40-Day Low, which is forecasted for around November 28. Another short bounce is expected during the first week of December before the final decline into the 40-Week Cycle Low, which should occur between late December and early January 2026.

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Monday, October 6, 2025

Hurst Cycles: Bigger Picture for SPX, NDX, ASX, and BTC | David Hickson

S&P 500: In our previous update, we identified three possible 20-week cycle troughs, and after comparing with less bullish markets (Nifty, ASX), concluded that the most likely occurred in the first few days of September. Price behavior since then supports that view. The next 20-day cycle trough likely occurred around September 25, slightly longer than average at 23 days. 
 
Price is rising from the 20-week cycle trough on September 2. The market is still bullish, moving up from either a 20- or 40-day trough, with the next expected 40-day or 80-day cycle trough due within one weeks to ten days. The 40-week cycle trough is projected around January 2026.
This mild irregularity raises the question of whether that trough was in fact an early 40-day one, since we’re due for another in about a week to ten days. Regardless, price remains in an upswing, moving out of that trough, and we stay bullish until the market gives evidence of peaking.
 
 

Looking at the bigger picture, the S&P 500 has a 54-month (4½-year) cycle trough in October 2022, followed by 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025. The strong rally since April suggests that the trough may be of greater magnitude. We expect a 40-week cycle trough in January 2026, and a major 18-month (or possibly 54-month) trough by September 2026. Until then, the market remains upward-biased with periodic corrections.
 
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ shows nearly identical structure: a 20-week trough on September 2, and a 20-day trough on September 25. A 40-day cycle trough is due around mid-October.
 
Also rising from the September 2 20-week trough. A 40-day cycle trough is expected between mid- and late October, followed by a move down into the January 2026 40-week trough. The market remains up until evidence of a peak forms.
On the larger scale, the NASDAQ shares the same October 2022 54-month base and subsequent 18-month troughs in October 2023 and April 2025, placing it in its third 18-month cycle—historically the least bullish. If this up-move fails to sustain, it could turn sharply bearish. A 40-week trough is expected in January 2026, followed by a deeper 18-month or 54-month trough toward late 2026.
 
Australian ASX: The ASX has been valuable for cross-checking the US indices because it hasn’t been as relentlessly bullish. Its 20-week trough also appeared around early September, confirming cycle alignment. After a hesitant bounce, the ASX regained strength last week. Shorter cycles (20-day and 40-day) are slightly stretched, and a 40-day trough is due soon, followed by an 80-day in November and a 40-week trough in January 2026. 
 
The 20-week trough occurred on September 2–3; price struggled initially but recovered strongly from the 20-day trough. A 40-day trough is due within a week, an 80-day trough in November, and the 40-week trough in January 2026.
Its longer-term 40-month cycle (analogous to a 54-month in US markets) bottomed in April 2025, explaining the strong upward pressure. The ASX is expected to peak later this year, then weaken into January 2026 before another rally.
 
Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s 20-week trough formed in early September, consistent with equities. The 20-day/40-day identification remains uncertain, but price is currently advancing from that base.
 
The 20-week trough appeared in the first days of September. Price is currently rising, but it will later move down under the influence of the 40-week and 18-month cycles into a trough expected January 2026.
On the broader scale, Bitcoin’s 54-month trough came in December 2022, with an 18-month trough in August 2024 and a 40-week trough in April 2025. Its next key trough, of 18-month magnitude, is due in January 2026. Although the coming decline should be mild due to limited amplitude, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may fade into early 2026 before the next major upswing.
 
 
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Thursday, September 25, 2025

US Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025 | Larry Williams

Current market cycles suggest near-term weakness across the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. The same pattern that accurately forecasted last April’s rally now points to a pullback. 
 
» Expect weakness in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in the near term. Not a bear market yet, 
but caution is warranted. Cycles and fundamentals together suggest a pullback is ahead. «
 
The 255-day S&P cycle, which has consistently identified past buy and sell points, indicates we are in a weak phase lasting into spring 2026, with the next major buying opportunity around the turn of the year.
 
 » The S&P has a 255-day cycle. Historically, it has nailed buy and sell points 
remarkably well. Right now, we are in the weak part of that cycle. «

This weakness is not expected to trigger a crash, but rather a corrective phase after a strong run, followed by a probable year-end rally. The 2025 forecast of a bullish trend and March buying opportunity proved accurate; the 2026 outlook projects early weakness, then a recovery.

Fundamentally, stocks are overvalued relative to bonds and gold, historically a precursor to declines. This reinforces caution, even without technical confirmation. 
 
» Yes, maybe some weakness—but nothing like 1929 or 1970. 
So, I wouldn’t jump to Dalio’s conclusions. «

Ray Dalio has warned of an 80-year cycle implying severe turmoil. However, analysis of past instances (1863, 1946) shows mostly sideways markets rather than major collapses. The cycle may suggest weakness but not systemic crisis.

In summary: expect a corrective phase in equities, with parallel declines in gold and Bitcoin, but no imminent bear market. Year-end rally potential remains, and cycles continue to provide reliable foresight.
 17:19 - NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones  
20:33 - Stocks Overvalued and 80 Year Cycle?
 
The 13-Week Cycle in Stocks.
 
See also:
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Sunday, September 14, 2025

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 | Branimir Vojcic

The chart below shows 20-week and 40-week cycle price projections for  S&P 500. Getting to the 7,200 area +/- may satisfy both targets. The black trendline resistance will get into the 40-week cycle target range late this year.

40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 7,200 +/-.
40-Week Cycle Blow-Off Top Target for the S&P 500 (daily bars) 7,200 +/-.
 
Cycle price projections are fully satisfied about 70% of the time. The probability of approaching them without fully satisfying them is considerably higher. However, this is not the time to be complacent as the stock market is most overvalued in more than 100 years.

Nasdaq-100 Index (weekly bars) - Long-Term Elliott Wave Count, and Blow-Off Top Targets.
 
The green rectangles depict blowoff top targets for Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) for 20-week and 40-week cycles. The black count is preferred in which Primary wave 5, circle-5, will take the form of an ending diagonal, ideally into the green targets. The blue count is an alternative ending diagonal. In this count, NDX is now completing wave B of (4) with C expected in 2026 and (5) in late 2027 or early 2028.

The completion of circle-5 this year or in 2027/28 will mark the top of cycle degree wave V and super-cycle degree (III). Super-cycle (IV) can take about 15-20 years. Cycle a is expected in the early 2030s, then a bounce in cycle b, and then cycle c of (IV) in about mid-2040s. A typical retracement for (IV) is in the range of IV, i.e., the fourth wave of one lesser degree. That’s the long-term picture. The focus in the next twelve months will be on nailing the pending top and a cycle trough expected in mid-2026, +/-, which should be black circle-A or blue (4).

traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the financial sector within the S&P 500.
 
Rally still has room toward 6,700 (log 61.8%), even 6,800 (100% W1) in blow-off top scenario.

40-week cycle peak in late September to early October will mark a long-term market top.

See also:
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Tuesday, September 9, 2025

September Seasonality of US Stock Indices | Jeff Hirsch

With Fed scheduled to make an announcement on September 17, the 12th trading day, it appears the market is pulling typical mid-month gains forward.

 Average September Market Performance 204-2024.
 
Once the market gets the interest rate cut it expects, it still may not be enough to avoid historical end-of-Q3 weakness.
 
 
 
 
2025 S&P 500 Equal Weight Cycles Composite (One-Year Seasonal Cycle, 
Four-Year Presidential Cycle, 10-Year Decennial Cycle, 1928-2024), 
Ned Davis Research, August 8, 2025.
 
September in post-election years exhibits a bearish trend with an overall average decline of -1.0% since 1950 and -0.93% from 1928-2024, driven by a -0.36% average in the first ten days and a steeper -1.13% in the last ten, reflecting policy uncertainty and late-month weakness. 
 
 
The market often starts with Day 1 showing a bearish tilt, down ~58% of the time since 2008 with an average decline of -0.3% to -0.5%, influenced by low post-Labor Day volume.

Days 2–5 display mixed performance with a slight downward bias due to portfolio rebalancing and "window dressing" by fund managers, while mid-September (Days 6–15) sees amplified losses, with Day 6 at -0.17%, Day 7 at -0.22%, Day 10 at -0.26%, and Day 15 (quadruple witching) at -0.25%, marked by heightened volatility averaging -0.48% in post-election years. 
 
S&P 500 average performance per day and daily percentage hit rate (1928-2024).

This mid-month weakness is tied to market adjustments and quadruple witching dynamics, contributing to a cumulative bearish shift.
 
S&P 500 seasonality first ten sessions and lst ten sessions of the month since 1928.

Late September (Days 16–20) offers a modest 0.2% bounce, though inconsistent and often fading into choppy trading by Days 25–30, which remain neutral to slightly bearish due to end-of-quarter portfolio adjustments. Hit rates drop below 50% mid-to-late month, and a 4.2% standard deviation in early September peaks mid-month, underscoring volatility.
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Monday, August 25, 2025

20-Week Cycle Troughs in S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold & Bitcoin | David Hickson

The S&P 500 suggests a Hurst 20-week cycle trough has formed on August 1, but the NASDAQ and Bitcoin point to a trough that still lies ahead. This divergence underscores the need for cross-market confirmation before drawing firm conclusions.

S&P 500: The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. Sentient Trader Hurst cycle analysis software places the 20-week trough in early August, but the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) interaction rating is weak (~30%), leaving doubt about whether it was the 20-week low. Price has shown some support at the 20-day FLD, but evidence remains mixed.
 
The April 7 trough of 18-month or larger magnitude underpins the ongoing bullish bias. 
 
If the early-August low was indeed the 20-week trough, the S&P 500 could break above its mid-August highs and extend higher into autumn. If not, the index still has a decline due, possibly into late August, before resuming its primary uptrend. Traders should await confirmation through clearer FLD interaction.

Schematic 18-Month Cycle Projection for the S&P 500.
 
David Hickson's cycle analysis software, Sentient Trader, calculates the current average wavelength of the nominal 40-week cycle or 9-month cycle in the S&P 500 as only 32.4 weeks (the colored boxes on the price scale at the bottom right of Sentient Trader charts show the average lengths of cycles), whereas the above schematic projection of the 18-month cycle uses Hurst's original average wavelength of 38.97 weeks or 272 days. This represents a difference of 46 days, or 6.6 weeks (Hurst's Principle of Variation). David F. recently calculated the average wavelength of the 40-week cycle over the last 15 iterations since February 2015 to be 259 days, or 37 weeks. Sentient Trader's 20-week cycle currently measures only 16.8 weeks and favored the August 1 low as the 20-week cycle trough. In contrast, Hurst's original value of 19.48 weeks aligned exactly with the recent W formation or double bottom in the S&P 500 on August 20-22.
 
 
 
Hurst's original approach identifies harmonic cycle lengths between lows, and in any composite or summation of a set of cycles with 2:1 ratios of length and amplitude, the crests of individual cycles actually become troughs in the summation line (thick black line). Hurst analysis can also be used to identify cycles between highs, as illustrated by the gold example below.

Schematic composite cycle projection for the S&P 500 during the 
bullish 9-month cycle phase of the current 18-Month Cycle.

Assuming the S&P 500 is in the first bullish half of the third and last 18-month cycle within the current 54-month cycle (which allegedly began in October 2022), and there is no uplifting and dominant influence of the 9-year, 18-year, or 54-year cycles, the upcoming 40-week cycle peak, anticipated around late September to early October, would be a long-term market top. Downward pressure would then lead the S&P 500 through a series of major lower lows and lower highs into the 54-month cycle trough projected into the third quarter of 2026. The same should be true for the NASDAQ. 
 
NASDAQ: Like the S&P 500, the April 18-month and June 80-day troughs are confirmed, but the early August price action points more convincingly to a 40-day trough, not a 20-week low. The FLD sequence is highly rated (~54%), with clean breakdowns below the 20-day FLD, suggesting the 20-week trough still lies ahead. This cycle evidence looks stronger than in the S&P 500.
 
 In the NASDAQ, Sentient Trader's nominal 20-week cycle currently uses an average wavelength of 20.9 weeks,
and therefore anticipates the 20-week cycle trough in late August or early September (thick dashed orange line).

The NASDAQ is likely to weaken into late August as it completes the 20-week cycle trough. Once that trough forms, the structure points to a strong rebound into a 40-week cycle high around late September, consistent with the dominant 18-month cycle uptrend. Until then, resistance at the 20-day FLD should cap the price.

Gold: Remains rangebound beneath a potential 12-year cycle peak on April 22, but its phasing is uncertain. A recent 20-day cycle trough has been confirmed, providing short-term support. Price is currently trapped in a wedge, with both 40-day and 80-day VTLs (Valid Trend Lines) acting as boundaries.
 
A breakout above the wedge would lead to a potential 12-year cycle peak before a larger decline.
 
The immediate bias is for a short-term rise as the 20-day cycle exerts upward pressure. A breakout above the wedge or VTL resistance would open the door to new highs before the larger decline sets in. Failure to break higher could prolong sideways action.
 
 

Bitcoin: Cycle structure is very clear and highly rated (~69%). The 20-week trough has not yet formed; instead, price is in decline following a textbook F-category interaction at the 20-day FLD. Early August marked only a 40-day trough, not the larger low.
 
In Bitcoin, Sentient Trader averages the nominal wavelength of the 20-week cycle as 20.5 weeks,
and projects the cycle trough into the first week of September.
 
 

Price is expected to continue falling into the 20-week trough, likely completing within weeks. A rebound should follow once the trough is established, though risks remain of a bearish asymmetry if the cycle phasing proves misaligned. The short-term bias for Bitcoin remains downward.
 
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