Nasdaq’s Midyear Rally from around June 26 to July 12 | Jeff Hirsch

In the mid-1980s tech’s influence in the market began to grow and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. 

 

This 12-day run has been up 30 of the past 39 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 12.

After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last fourteen years, up twelve times with two losses. After struggling in the bear market of 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly rebounded last year to gain 4.1% compared to a total July gain of 4.0%.

Quoted from:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 24, 2024) - Christmas In July: Tech Weakness Setting Up NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally.

 

See also:

Wayne Whaley (Jun 22, 2024) - An encouraging study for the Summer Bulls.
Wayne Whaley (June 17, 2024) - The Summer Rally.
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 17, 2024) - June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration – A Volatility Haven.

TPR (June 20, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2024.

Pervasive Euphoria Across The Market | Lines on a Chart by Tom

The markets closed another week at record highs, with the S&P 500 up by 2.3%, the Nasdaq by 3%, and the Dow by 2%. [...] I want to share two charts that caught my attention: The first chart, courtesy of Sentimentrader, depicts the small speculator index at the bottom. The annotation succinctly captures the essence of the chart— "small speculators are all in." 

 

 Small speculators are all-in.

This mirrors my observation last week regarding fund managers being fully invested based on the NAAIM index. The alignment between market participants, both large and small, underscores the pervasive euphoria across the market.

 Tech leadership vs S&P 500 is at highs exceeding the Great Financial Crisis.

The second chart, from Bank of America Global Research, highlights the Technology leadership versus the S&P 500, reaching levels surpassing those seen before the Great Financial Crisis. This serves as an intriguing backdrop to maintain awareness as sentiment and positioning continue to stretch.

Quoted from:

TomTheTrader1 @ Twitter/X
Lines on a Chart by Tom - (Mar 24, 2024) - The Market & The Moon. 

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is 93.22. 

Active fund managers are all-in.

 

 [Euphoriameter]

 

 [CNN Fear & Greed Index ]

 

 

 [McClellan Oscillator]

 

Pre-Election Year Seasonal Pattern of U.S. Stock Indexes | Jeffrey A. Hirsch

In 2023 the 15th trading day of June will be Wednesday, 21st - summer solstice.

Reference:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch @ Twitter.

Artificial Intelligence Long Range Forecasts | Stock Indices | Crude Oil | Gold

FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model.
Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC.

Red dots represent monthly mean prices. First dot after the dashed vertical is June 2016, last one November 2016.

 

 

 

MarketVector Financial Forecasts produces long range forecasts using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA).
MSSA to decompose the time series into a trend component and many cyclical components. The decomposed
components of the time series are then projected forward in time.

Chartsedge  provides stock market forecasts are based on cycle
data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program.

McVerry Report generates 5-Day U.S. Market
Forecasts based on Artificial Intelligence.

Nasdaq - Outside Reversal Day

Oscar Carboni - Nasdaq (Jan 14)