Showing posts with label FTSE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FTSE. Show all posts

Thursday, February 2, 2017

Solar and Economic Relationships | García Mata & Shaffner

Carlos Garcia-Mata & Felix Ira Shaffner (1934) - It is common knowledge that people from all walks of life and every station of society participated in what is now generally agreed was - considering the number of persons and transactions involved - the greatest speculative mania of modern times. The bursting of this speculative bubble at the end of 1929 affords an excellent opportunity for something analogous to an experiment on the correlation of turning points in solar and speculative activity. Stock prices had experienced an extraordinary rise from a level of around 100 in 1924 to approximately 320 in the first half of 1929.

[…] With this in mind, we compared monthly data of speculation in 1929 with variations in solar phenomena for the same year […] In the upper part of the chart the solar-radiation curve is plotted upside down to help visualize the inverse correlation. Another comparison between business and solar data was made employing an index computed since August, 1924, by the Mount Wilson Observatory. This is an index of a part of the solar spectrum, the ultraviolet rays, which, it will be remembered, vary within a much wider range than the total solar radiation curve. This index was reduced to a 12-month moving average to make it comparable with the rest of the chart. Although the period is so short that nothing statistical can be deduced, the existence of a direct correlation with the business curve is apparent […] For an index of American speculative sentiment, we chose Professor W.L. Crum's index of industrial stock prices, known as “Barron's Averages, because they are constructed to portray the speculative movement of stock prices rather than the trend of investment prices.” 

[...] A glance at the chart will show a striking similarity in the date of the turning points. Furthermore, contrary to expectations, the behavior of the two curves during the whole year is similar. The lowest prices for common stocks in the New York and London Stock Exchanges were reached in the first half of July 1932 [...] The [third] chart shows the curious fact that the recession in the last quarter of 1932 is also visible in the solar curve. And it is interesting to note that the solar curve makes a second low in February, 1933, turning up again in the following months. Although this is a fact, too much should not be expected of comparisons for the year 1933 because, except for clear solar changes which are sudden and which can be associated with the turning points, it is too much to hope for an exact month-to-month correlation. In the years in which the speculative curves moved steadily up or down, such as in 1930-31 and previous to 1929, no clear moth-to-month relation has been found between solar and speculative short swings, except for the seasonal movements of the speculative curve in the down swing, which perhaps can be associated with the similar seasonal variations of the solar-terrestrial physical curves such as magnetic activity and aurora borealis.

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Artificial Intelligence Long Range Forecasts | Stock Indices | Crude Oil | Gold

FFC Long Range Forecasts rely exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to analyze and model.
Source: Financial Forecast Center, LLC.
Red dots represent monthly mean prices. First dot after the dashed vertical is June 2016, last one November 2016.
 
 
 

MarketVector Financial Forecasts produces long range forecasts using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA).
MSSA to decompose the time series into a trend component and many cyclical components. The decomposed
components of the time series are then projected forward in time.
Chartsedge  provides stock market forecasts are based on cycle
data which has been analyzed by a Pattern Recognition Program.
McVerry Report generates 5-Day U.S. Market
Forecasts based on Artificial Intelligence.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Moon and Stocks - The Four Lunar Month Cycle

Markets repeat directly or inversely somewhere between (+/- 2 days) the 4 Lunar Month Cycle (118.12 Days)
and the average synodic period of Mercury (116.88 Days). More on the Delta Phenomenon HERE - Please note:
Inversions of polarity oftentimes occur +/- 2 weeks around equinoxes and solstices (HERE)


Tuesday, October 16, 2012

German DAX - FTSE - SPX - Nikkei vs Delta

German DAX: 
Intermediate-Term-Delta #5 Low = Oct 11
ITD #a High = Oct 17
ITD #b L = Oct 22-24
ITD #6 H = Oct 31 = Medium-Term-Delta # 5 H?
ITD #7 L = Nov 5

 







British FTSE:
ITD #5 H = Oct 16
ITD #6 L = Oct 21-24
ITD #7 H = Oct 31
= MTD # 5 H ?


 


S&P 500:
ITD #5 L = Oct 12
ITD #a H = Oct 16
ITD #b L = Oct 21-23
ITD #6 H = Oct 29
= MTD # 5 H ?
ITD #7 L = Nov 7


Nikkei:
ITD #6 Low = Oct 15
ITD #7 High = Oct 17
ITD #8 L = Oct 22-24
ITD #9 H = Oct 31 = MTD # 8 H?
ITD #10 L = Nov 8
ITD #11 H = Nov 14
= MTD # 8 H?

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Simple Moon Trading Strategy

Tom Pelc & Dmytro Bondar (The Royal Bank of Scotland, 2010)

...  we study the performance of 6 indices FTSE 100, S&P 500, DAX, EUROXX 50, Hang Seng, CAC 40 [versus the lunar cycle] for a period of several decades. 


... The proposed trading strategy can be summarized as follows: buy an index on the new moon (if this is a non-trading day, buy on the next trading day), hold till the full moon (usually 14-15 days), sell the index on the full moon (similarly, if non-trading day, sell on the next trading day), repeat the investment of the overall amount on the next moon cycle (usually in 14-16 days).



... Having invested £1,000 in S&P 500 in 1928, by now would outcome in holding £63,864 worth portfolio, while by implementing the proposed moon trading strategy, the value of portfolio would have been £1,502,689.   





















www.astrocycle.net












































Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Delta: Full Moon LOW - June 11 HIGH - June 18 LOW ?




The Inversion-Zone between ITD #11 and #2 ended with a ITD #2 High and the Full Moon #3 LOW on June 4. Now a rally into June 8-11 followed by another decline into June 18 is likely.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Update: Delta Pattern for SPX, NDX, FTSE & DAX

 Major US and European Stock Indices will most likely correct sideways-to-up into March 12. Above the SPX.

NDX.

FTSE

DAX