 |
| A Trading Setup is an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. |
Reference:
Hannah Forex (Mar 9, 2023) - I take these trades over and over again ... | ICT mentorship model.
Sunday, March 19, 2023
Backtesting ICT 2022 Mentorship Trading Setups | Hannah Forex
Reference:
Hannah Forex (Mar 9, 2023) - I take these trades over and over again ... | ICT mentorship model.
Anything Can Happen | Mark Douglas
The semiretired chairman of the board of the brokerage firm was a longtime trader with nearly 40 years of experience in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade. He didn't know much about technical analysis, because he never needed it to make money on the floor. But he no longer traded on the floor and found the transition to trading from a screen difficult and somewhat mysterious. So he asked the firm's newly acquired star technical analyst to sit with him during the trading day and teach him technical trading. The new hire jumped
at the opportunity to show off his abilities to such an experienced and
successful trader. The analyst was using a method called "point and
line", developed by Charlie Drummond (HERE).
One day, as the two of them were watching the soybean market together, the analyst had projected major support and resistance points and the market happened to be trading between these two points. As the technical analyst was explaining to the chairman the significance of these two points, he stated in very emphatic, almost absolute terms that if the market goes up to resistance, it will stop and reverse; and if the market goes down to support, it will also stop and reverse. Then he explained that if the market went down to the price level he calculated as support, his calculations indicated that would also be the low of the day.
As they sat there, the bean market was slowly trending down to the price the analyst said would be the support, or low, of the day. When it finally got there, the chairman looked over to the analyst and said, "This is where the market is supposed to stop and go higher, right?" The analyst responded, "Absolutely! This is the low of the day." "That's bullshit!" the chairman retorted. "Watch this." He picked up the phone, called one of the clerks handling orders for the soybean pit, and said, "Sell two million beans bushels at the market." Within thirty seconds after he placed the order, the soybean market dropped ten cents a bushel. The chairman turned to look at the horrified expression on the analysts face. Calmly, he asked, "Now, where did you say the market was going to stop? If I can do that, anyone can."
The Probabilistic Mindset of Successful Traders | Mark Douglas
How can someone produce consistent results from an event that has an uncertain probabilistic outcome? To answer this question, all we have to do is look to the gambling industry. Casinos
make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating
an event that has a purely random outcome. Shouldn't a consistent,
nonrandom outcome produce consistent results, and a random outcome
produce random, inconsistent results?
 |
| "I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime." Jim Rogers |
What casino owners, experienced gamblers, and the best traders understand that the typical trader finds difficult to grasp is: events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size. The best traders treat trading like a numbers game, similar to the way in which casinos and professional gamblers approach gambling. It's the ability to believe in the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the game at the macro level that makes the casino and the professional gambler effective and successful at what they do.
Their belief prevents them from engaging in the pointless endeavor of trying to predict each individual outcome. They have learned and completely accepted the fact that they don't know what's going to happen next. More important, they don't need to know in order to make money consistently. Because they don't have to know what's going to happen next, they don't place any special significance, emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words, they're not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos involved in a way that makes them have to be right. As a result, it's easier to stay focused on keeping the odds in their favor and executing flawlessly, which in turn makes them less susceptible to making costly mistakes.
A probabilistic mindset pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths:
- Anything can happen.
- You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
- There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
- An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
- Every moment in the market is unique.
See also:
James B. Rogers Jr. in Jack D. Schwager (1992) - The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001) - On Randomness, Uncertainty, and Probability.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2001) - On Randomness, Uncertainty, and Probability.
Friday, March 17, 2023
How Livermore Judges the Turning Points | Richard D. Wyckoff
Judging the main turning points in the long swings is the most important thing that he does, and if he could accomplish nothing else in between the panics and booms and accurately judge the right time for changing his position, he knows that he has a starting point for the rolling up of tremendous profits during the intervening year or two while the market is on its way from nadir to zenith. It is perfectly clear why this is so. A man who loads up at the low point of a panic has a certain amount of working capital. If he succeeds in selling out near the top of the boom, he has not only his original capital but his aggregate profits as well. If he then takes a short position with the line increased by reason of these profits and successfully rides this short line down to the next panic, he will find his resources vastly increased.
 |
| Quotation Board Girls copying the latest numbers calculated by the Composite Man to the quotation board in Waldorf Astoria's lobby to be acknowledged by the crowd as the price and nothing but the price; New York, 1918. |
These lines of stocks which Livermore takes on at the low points are not of course, always sold at the topmost prices. As the market executes its series of intermediate swings and begins to approach the level when an important turning point is likely to occur, he looks for more frequent reactions, and, therefore, will very often liquidate all or part of his line on some of the strong bulges which occur in the upper stages of the market, or in what is known as the selling zone. He does not consider it good policy to try and get the last point, for many things can happen which might bring the ultimate turning point nearer than he anticipated.
He knows that all stocks do not make their tops simultaneously. Some reach their apex months before the last of them have exhausted their lifting power. The bull forces may be likened to an army which is carrying the defenses of the enemy: it can advance just so far without becoming exhausted and falling back. He knows that the principal bull ammunition is money and that general conditions govern and limit the extent of any move; also that it is not so much the news, the statistics, the dividends, etc. that are important but what is of dominating importance is the effect of the developments on the minds of men and the extent to which traders and investors are thereby induced to buy or sell. The market is not affected by what a million people think about the market, but it is immediately affected by their actual buying and selling or their failure to do either.
While the long swings are of the utmost importance to him, they do not by any means constitute all of his operations. He is an active trader, for long ago he cured himself of jumping in and out of the market day after day.
Next in importance to the trades which he makes are the intermediate swings running from ten to thirty points and from a week or two to a few months in duration. Let us say that the market is getting into the upper levels and although not at the turning point becomes overbought and the technical position is such that a reaction of ten to fifteen points is imminent. He decides that under such conditions it is best for him to reduce his line of long stocks in order that he may take advantage of whatever decline occurs by replacing them at lower prices. He may have twenty or thirty points profit in a certain lot of stock which he believes will sell at a higher figure eventually, but if he can close this out on the verge of a sharp reaction and replace it ten points cheaper, he has thereby reduced the original cost by that much. His judgment of the time and the direction of these intermediate swings can only be formed accurately by the action of the market as recorded on the tape of the ticker. He cannot gauge it properly in any other way. Where else can he see the gradual alteration from strength to weakness in the market; the complete supply of the absorption power; the ultimate weakening of support and the numerous other characteristics of such an episode.
Just as the market displays to his practiced eye the downward phase, so it forecasts the end of the reaction and the time to resume the long side. These indications appear in the leading stocks of important groups and in many individual issues - usually the most popular trading mediums. The principles of judging the market by its own action, Livermore learned long ago and he found that they operate over the whole wide range of stock market movements, from the little half-hourly ripples back and forth to the great swings in prices running from one to three years. It is a question of supply and demand and once recognized and properly applied, it goes a long way toward solving of most stock market problems.
 |
| Wyckoff started as a stockbroker's runner at the age of 15, became a brokerage firm auditor a few years later, and at age 25 opened his own brokerage firm. |
Just as the market displays to his practiced eye the downward phase, so it forecasts the end of the reaction and the time to resume the long side. These indications appear in the leading stocks of important groups and in many individual issues - usually the most popular trading mediums. The principles of judging the market by its own action, Livermore learned long ago and he found that they operate over the whole wide range of stock market movements, from the little half-hourly ripples back and forth to the great swings in prices running from one to three years. It is a question of supply and demand and once recognized and properly applied, it goes a long way toward solving of most stock market problems.
The market moves along the line of least resistance and when demand is greater than supply this line is upward. To detect the momentary changes as well as those taking a longer time to work out, is the daily task of Mr. Livermore, just as it is the business of every manufacturer and merchant to judge the future course of his particular industry.
See also:
Richard D. Wyckoff (1910) - Studies in Tape Reading.
Richard D. Wyckoff (1922) - Exposing and Killing the Bucket Shops.
Edwin Lefèvre (1923) - Jesse Livermore - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Edwin Lefèvre (1925) - The Making of a Stockbroker.
Richard D. Wyckoff (1930) - Wall Street Ventures & Adventures through Forty Years.
Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks. Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Pump and Dump Patterns after Major News Release | Stacey Burke
Position yourself AFTER Major Red News Releases (NFP, CPI, PPI, PMI, FOMC etc.) with
either a Pump & Dump or a Dump & Pump trading setup for 25, 50, 75 or more pips.
See also:
Major Red News Calendar.
Saturday, March 11, 2023
Six Types of Market Days | Mind Over Markets
In Mind Over Markets (1st ed. 1990) James F. Dalton, Eric T. Jones and Robert B. Dalton describe six types of market days repeatedly seen across all financial markets, but no two days are ever identical: "The labels we will give these patterns are not as important as understanding how the day evolves in relation to the initial balance and the confidence with which the other time-frame has entered the market. Think of the initial balance as a base for the day's trading. The purpose of a base is to provide support for something, as the base of a lamp keeps the lamp from tipping over. The narrower the base, the easier it is to knock the lamp over. The same principle holds true for futures trading in the day time-frame. If the initial balance is narrow, the odds are greater that the base will be upset and range extension will occur. Days that establish a wider base provide more support and the initial balance is more likely to maintain the extremes for the day."
The Initial Balance is traditionally defined as the price range of the first hour of the day, which is extremely important to professionals on the floors of the exchanges. They use the initial balance high and the initial balance low as important points of reference in order to facilitate trade between buyers and sellers.
ooOoo
1. Trend Day
The Trend Day is the most aggressive type of market day. On a bullish Trend Day, the open usually marks the day’s low, while the close usually marks the day’s high, with a few ticks of tolerance in either direction. On a bearish Trend Day, the open will usually mark the day’s high, while the market will usually close near the session’s low. The market will typically start fast and the farther price moves away from value (roughly 70% of the prior day's range), the more participants will enter the market, creating sustained price movement on increased volume. Initiative buying or selling is responsible for this type of market day, as these participants are confident they can move price to a new area of established value. Price conviction is strongest during Trend Days.
Trend Days have the widest price range (high price minus low price), meaning it is costly positioning against the market or failing to recognize the pattern early enough to enter alongside the market. Trend Days only occur a few times a month, but catching these moves certainly makes money. The Trend Day is usually preceded by a quiet day of market activity, which is usually a day with a small range of movement (Toby Crabels NR4, NR7, ID - see HERE and HERE). However, rare as they are, a Trend Day is oftentimes followed by another Trend Day.
2. Double-Distribution Trend Day
While the Double-Distribution Trend Day is a trending day, it lacks the confidence or conviction of a Trend Day. Instead, this type of day is characterized by indecision at the start of the session. The market will usually open in a quiet manner, trading within a fairly tight range for the first hour or two, thereby creating a narrow initial balance.
If the initial balance is too narrow, price will break free from the range and auction toward new value, creating range extension, which is any movement outside the initial balance. After the initial balance of the Double-Distribution Trend Day has been defined, price will break out from the range and auction toward new value, where it will form a second distribution of price. This is the market’s attempt at confirming whether new value has indeed been established. The Double-Distribution Trend Day opens quietly, trading within a tight range. Eventually, price breaks free of the range and begins trending toward new value, igniting initiative buying or selling. Once the market finds new value, it then builds out another range before ending the day. The ranges formed at both the beginning and end of the day is where the term “double-distribution” comes from, as the bulk of the day’s volume resides at one of these extremes, essentially forming a double distribution of trading activity.
The initial balance is the base for any day’s trading but extremely important to the Double-Distribution Trend Day. A narrow initial balance is easily broken, while a wide initial balance is harder to break. The fact that the initial balance is narrow on this type of day indicates that there is a good possibility of a breakout from the initial range, indicating that you will likely see a move toward new value.
The initial balance is the base for any day’s trading but extremely important to the Double-Distribution Trend Day. A narrow initial balance is easily broken, while a wide initial balance is harder to break. The fact that the initial balance is narrow on this type of day indicates that there is a good possibility of a breakout from the initial range, indicating that you will likely see a move toward new value.
3. Typical Day
The Typical Day has a wide initial balance established at the outset of the day. Price rallies or drops sharply at the beginning, moving far enough away from value to entice responsive participants to enter the market. The responsive players push price back in the opposite direction, essentially establishing the day’s trading extremes. The market then trades quietly within the day’s extremes the remainder of the session. The opening rally or sell-off is usually sparked by reactions to economic news that hits the market early in the day. This opening push creates a wide initial balance, which means the day’s "base" is wide and will likely go unbroken.
4. Expanded Typical Day
The Expanded Typical Day is similar to the Typical Day in that it usually begins with early directional conviction. However, price movement at the open is not as strong as that seen during a Typical Day. Therefore, the initial balance, while wider than that of a Double-Distribution Trend Day, is not as wide as that of the Typical Day, which leaves it susceptible to a violation later in the session.
Eventually, one of the day’s extremes is violated and price movement is seen in the direction of the break, which is usually caused by initiative buying or selling behavior. The initial balance was wider than that of a Double-Distribution Trend Day, but not so wide as to challenge the width of the Typical Day. When the base of the day is neither wide nor narrow, it can be a coin flip whether a breakout will occur. The fact that the initial balance is not wide introduces the potential for failure at some point during the day at one of the extremes. In this particular case, initiative sellers overwhelmed the bottom of the day’s initial balance and extended price movement to the downside. Selling pressure essentially expanded the day’s range, thereby introducing the namesake for this type of day. The initiative selling pressure led to continued weakness the rest of the day, as price moved to establish lower. During an Expanded Typical Day, both the upper and lower boundaries of the initial balance are susceptible to violations. On any given day, one, or both of the boundaries can be violated, as buyers and sellers attempt to push price toward their own perceived levels of value.
ooOoo
The last two types of days seem similar, but they have distinct differences that set them apart from each other. The Trading Range Day and the Sideways Day even sound similar, but the difference lies within the participation levels of both buyers and sellers.
5. Trading Range Day
A Trading Range Day occurs when both buyers and sellers are actively auctioning price back and forth within the day’s range, which is usually established by the day’s initial balance. The initial balance is about as wide as that of a Typical Day, but instead of quietly trading within these two extremes throughout the day, buyers and sellers are actively pushing price back and forth. Buyers and sellers will stand at the extremes of the day and will enter the market in a responsive manner when price reaches the outer limits of the day’s range. Responsive sellers will enter shorts at the top of the range, which essentially pushes price back toward the day’s lows, while responsive buyers will enter longs at the bottom of the range, which pushes price back toward the day’s highs. This pattern will continue until the close. A Trading Range Day offers easy facilitation of trade and gives traders amazing opportunities to time their entries.
6. Sideways Day
During a Sideways Day price is stagnant, as both buyers and sellers refrain from trading. This type of session usually occurs ahead of the release of a major economic report or news event, or in advance of a trading holiday. There is no trade facilitation and no directional conviction. This is a non-trend Day with a very compressed range, oftentimes an inside day, and the risk-reward ratio for day traders is not favorable. The initial balance is rather narrow, which at first indicates the potential for a Double-Distribution Trend Day. However, the initiative buying or selling required for a Double-Distribution Trend Day never enters the fray, which leaves the market very quiet for the rest of the session.
ooOoo
 |
| Jan Firich (2012) |
The market will typically alternate between high and low range sessions. The fact that the market rallies after the formation of a narrow value area causes the value area for the next session to be extremely wide. A wide value area will typically lead to a Trading Range or Sideways Day behavior. When this occurs, the initial balance is usually larger, as the market establishes the extremes for the day’s trading activity, which usually results in a Typical, a Trading Range, or Sideways Day.
References:
Thursday, March 9, 2023
Trading Inside or Outside the Daily and Weekly Range | Stacey Burke
When a market opens outside of the previous day's range and then auctions around the open, one's first impression is that there is no directional conviction present. In reality, the mere fact that the opening is beyond the previous day's range suggests that new other time frame activity has caused price to seek a higher or lower level. Given that the market has opened out of balance, there is a greater chance that directional conviction will develop than if the market had opened and auctioned within the range. An Open-Auction outside of range has the potential to be a big day, while an Open-Auction within value usually lacks conviction.
 |
| There are only three things price can do: 1. Breakout from a Range and Trend. 2. Breakout from a Range and Reverse. 3. Trading Range between Highs and Lows. |
[...] In the large majority of cases, activity during any given day has direct and measurable implications on the following day. It is only on the relatively rare occasion when a market moves extremely out of balance that there is no correlation between two consecutive days. Understanding these implications enables a trader to more successfully visualize developing market activity.
The salient concept here is market balance. The relationship of the open to the previous day's value area and range gives valuable clues to the market's state of balance and what kind of risk/opportunity relationship to expect on a given trading day. In short, the greatest risk and opportunity arise when a market opens outside of the previous day's range. This indicates that the market is out of balance.
When a market opens out of balance, the potential for a dynamic move in either direction is high. Conversely, a market that opens and is accepted (auctions for at least one hour) within the previous day's value area embodies lower risk, but also less opportunity. The acceptance of price within the previous day's value area indicates balance, and therefore reduces the potential for a dynamic move.
Quoted from:
[The Value Area
is a range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded.
The
range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean
which is roughly 70%.]
See also:
UFOs Above Basel | Red And Black Balls In The Sky
A series of mass sightings of celestial phenomena occurred in 1566 above Basel, Switzerland. The Basel pamphlet of 1566 describes unusual sunrises and sunsets. Celestial phenomena were said to have "fought" together in the form of numerous red and black balls in the sky before the rising sun.
"It happened in 1566 three times, on 27 and 28 of July, and on August 7, against the sunrise and sunset; we saw strange shapes in the sky above Basel. During the year 1566, on the 27th of July, after the sun had shone warm on the clear, bright skies, and then around 9 pm, it suddenly took a different shape and color. First, the sun lost all its radiance and luster, and it was no bigger than the full moon, and finally it seemed to weep tears of blood and the air behind him went dark. And he was seen by all the people of the city and countryside. In much the same way also the moon, which has already been almost full and has shone through the night, assuming an almost blood-red color in the sky. The next day, Sunday, the sun rose at about six o'clock and slept with the same appearance it had when it was lying before. He lit the houses, streets and around as if everything was blood-red and fiery. At the dawn of August 7, we saw large black spheres coming and going with great speed and precipitation before the sun and chattered as if they led a fight. Many of them were fiery red and, soon crumbled and then extinguished."
By Samuel Coccius, historian of Basel, 1566.
UFOs Above Nuremberg | Or A Sun Dog
A mass sighting of celestial phenomena or unidentified flying objects (UFO) occurred in 1561 above Nuremberg (then a Free Imperial City of the Holy Roman Empire). This view is mostly dismissed by skeptics, some referencing Carl Jung's mid-twentieth century writings about the subject while others find that the phenomenon is likely to be a sun dog.
"In the morning of April 14, 1561, at daybreak, between 4 and 5 a.m., a dreadful apparition occurred on the sun, and then this was seen in Nuremberg in the city, before the gates and in the country – by many men and women. At first there appeared in the middle of the sun two blood-red semi-circular arcs, just like the moon in its last quarter. And in the sun, above and below and on both sides, the color was blood, there stood a round ball of partly dull, partly black ferrous color. Likewise there stood on both sides and as a torus about the sun such blood-red ones and other balls in large number, about three in a line and four in a square, also some alone. In between these globes there were visible a few blood-red crosses, between which there were blood-red strips, becoming thicker to the rear and in the front malleable like the rods of reed-grass, which were intermingled, among them two big rods, one on the right, the other to the left, and within the small and big rods there were three, also four and more globes. These all started to fight among themselves, so that the globes, which were first in the sun, flew out to the ones standing on both sides, thereafter, the globes standing outside the sun, in the small and large rods, flew into the sun. Besides the globes flew back and forth among themselves and fought vehemently with each other for over an hour. And when the conflict in and again out of the sun was most intense, they became fatigued to such an extent that they all, as said above, fell from the sun down upon the earth 'as if they all burned' and they then wasted away on the earth with immense smoke. After all this there was something like a black spear, very long and thick, sighted; the shaft pointed to the east, the point pointed west. Whatever such signs mean, God alone knows. Although we have seen, shortly one after another, many kinds of signs on the heaven, which are sent to us by the almighty God, to bring us to repentance, we still are, unfortunately, so ungrateful that we despise such high signs and miracles of God. Or we speak of them with ridicule and discard them to the wind, in order that God may send us a frightening punishment on account of our ungratefulness. After all, the God-fearing will by no means discard these signs, but will take it to heart as a warning of their merciful Father in heaven, will mend their lives and faithfully beg God, that He may avert His wrath, including the well-deserved punishment, on us, so that we may temporarily here and perpetually there, live as his children.
For it, may God grant us his help, Amen."
By Hanns Glaser, letter-painter of Nuremberg, 1561.
 | |||
| Strange object falls into the crater of Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico (HERE) |
Monday, March 6, 2023
The Fate of Empires | Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb
Lieutenant-General
Sir John Bagot Glubb (1897 – 1986), known as Glubb Pasha, was
a British army officer, scholar, and author, who led the Transjordan's Arab Legion between 1939 and 1956 as its commanding general. Glubb
was a man of his time and class, he wrote some 20 books about the Arab world and Islam, and in 1978 a short treatise titled “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival”. In this he describes a rising civilization as a society where people have a sense of duty and service, practical attitudes, a strong merchant class, and a desire for conquest.
The characteristics
of a falling civilizations include frivolity, love of money instead of duty,
excessive reverence for celebrities, and the rise of intellect over action. Despite an empire’s geographic, religious, cultural, and technological differences,
they all follow the same pattern of expansion, development, decline, and
collapse. Using this knowledge, Glubb hoped that through understanding how
empires decline, the British Empire could stand a chance at avoiding the same
fate. Although the rise and fall of civilization are as unstoppable as the
change of seasons, countries can mitigate losses by preparing for the future.
Glubb
formulates a set of patterns that empires experience until their eventual
collapse. His framework consists of six stages that are characteristic of superpowers
and follows the idea of cyclical paradigms in the historical record. Glubb
estimates that on average empires last 250 years or 10 generations:
1. The Age of Pioneers (The Outburst)
2. The Age of Conquest
3. The Age of Commerce
4. The Age of Affluence (The High Noon)
5. The Age of Intellect
6. The Age of Decadence (Midnight)
2. The Age of Conquest
3. The Age of Commerce
4. The Age of Affluence (The High Noon)
5. The Age of Intellect
6. The Age of Decadence (Midnight)
Glubb’s formulation of collapse is inherently controversial, but he understands this keenly. Those living in or around a “collapsing” empire could never truly observe it, at least not directly - after all no citizen easily perceives or admits that the empire is failing or has failed. The human spirit is adaptive, and embraces many harsh and diverse conditions with exceptional ease. It is not a “gradually, then suddenly” - but a perpetuity of gradual decline. A collapse is realized centuries later by future hopefuls far removed, or in Glubb’s grim case, barbarians. Glubb’s sense of collapse implies a steady and progressive softening and weakening of an empire, nation, or power. “Empires do not usually begin or end on a certain date. There is normally a gradual period of expansion and then a period of decline. Human affairs are subject to many chances, and it is not to be expected that they could be calculated with mathematical accuracy.”
“The only thing we learn from
history, is that men never learn from history”. His central proposition on
collapse stems from the questionable way empires pass down history. Glubb
considered an accurate generational transfer of history a crucial guard against
collapse. Powers that retained fairly objective histories would win out in the
long run as a matter of historical record in Glubb’s view. “Our people are represented as patriotic heroes,
their enemies as grasping imperialists, or subversive rebels. In other words,
our national histories are propaganda, not well-balanced investigations.” Further,
in the wider historical sense, Glubb argues that for world history to be useful
- it must be an accurate and collective history of the human race. “Any useful
lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole flow of human
development, not by the selection of short periods here and there in one
country or another.”
(1.) The Age
of Pioneers
The
age of pioneers is marked by a sense of freedom and boldness characteristic of
new encounters with the unknown. Pioneers are not limited to conventions or
traditions. The leaders of the pioneers are creative, set the stage, and are
free to improvise unique solutions and compromises. The old virtues -
diligence, courage, honor, and loyalty rule the day. “Uninhibited by textbooks
or book learning, action is their solution to every problem.”
(2.) The Age
of Conquest
The
age of conquest is a period of military action and land acquisition. Glubb
marks this period by the simmering desire for commerce and wealth by the
public. The military may be proud and honorable, but conquest is driven mainly
by a merchant class who usher in the age of commerce. “During the military period, glory and honor were the principal objects
of ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are but empty words, which add nothing
to the bank balance.”
(3.) The Age
of Commerce
Glubb
marks the age of commerce by the ease at which goods are transported. In this
period, trade is simplified and the ease of doing business maximized. The
empire controls all trade routes, resulting in little to no interdependence in
the domains of commerce and travel. “The
means of transport were slower, but, when a great empire was in control,
commerce was freed from the innumerable shackles imposed upon it today by
passports, import permits, customs, boycotts and political interference.”
(4.) The Age of Affluence
The age of affluence is identified by a subtle distinction
in the value and utility of education. In an empire’s high noon, knowledge is
viewed only as a path to riches, with its practical and virtuous foundations
taking an indefinite back seat. Glubb intuits that as with the Arab decline,
there is a gradual loss of knowledge that would have bolstered the empire’s
institutions. “The Arab moralist, Ghazali
(1058-1111), complains in these very same words of the lowering of objectives
in the declining Arab world of his time. Students, he says, no longer attend
college to acquire learning and virtue, but to obtain those qualifications
which will enable them to grow rich.”
(5.) The Age of Intellect
The
age of intellect is marked by the common idea that education will solve all the
problems in the world. It is this idea that underscores what Glubb terms “the
inadequacy of intellect”. Glubb’s banal observation is that problem solving and
cohesion among people depend simply on the principles that encourage
self–sacrifice, loyalty, courage, and trust. Intellect is a product of these
old virtues, and not the primary ingredient. “In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends
basically on the loyalty and self–sacrifice of the citizens. The impression
that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or
human self–dedication, can only lead to collapse.”
(6.) The Age of Decadence
The
age of decadence is signaled by increased pessimism and cynicism among citizens
as the empire marches towards midnight. Civil dissensions predominantly in
matters of politics become more tribal and pronounced. The pervasive pessimism
and cynicism is assuaged through various means and frivolity becomes the order
of the day. Glubb writes: “Frivolity is
the frequent companion of pessimism. Let us eat, drink and be merry, for
tomorrow we die. The resemblance between various declining nations in this respect
is truly surprising. The Roman mob, we have seen, demanded free meals and public
games. Gladiatorial shows, chariot races and athletic events were their
passion. In the Byzantine Empire the rivalries of the Greens and the Blues in
the hippodrome attained the importance of a major crisis. Judging by the time
and space allotted to them in the Press and television, football and baseball
are the activities which today chiefly interest the public in Britain and the
United States respectively. The heroes of declining nations are always the
same - the athlete, the singer or the actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used
to designate a comedian or a football player, not a statesman, a general, or a
literary genius.”
“In 10th century Baghdad, contemporary historians lamented the decadence of the period, which was signified by who the citizens considered their heroes. [They] deeply deplored the degeneracy of the times in which they lived, emphasizing particularly the indifference to religion, the increasing materialism and the laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also the corruption of the officials of the government and the fact that politicians always seemed to amass large fortunes while they were in office. The historians commented bitterly on the extraordinary influence acquired by popular singers over young people, resulting in a decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs on the lute, an instrument resembling the modern guitar. In the second half of the tenth century, as a result, much obscene sexual language came increasingly into use, such as would not have been tolerated in an earlier age. Several khalifs issued orders banning ‘pop’ singers from the capital, but within a few years they always returned.”
When the welfare state was first introduced in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water mark in the history of human development. History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to sympathy for other races. This phase may not be contradictory to the feeling described in the previous paragraph, that the dominant race has the right to rule the world. For the citizens of the great nation enjoy the role of Lady Bountiful. As long as it retains its status of leadership, the imperial people are glad to be generous, even if slightly condescending. The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed. The Roman Empire passed through this phase, when equal citizenship was thrown open to all peoples, such provincials even becoming senators and emperors. The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally, perhaps even more, generous. During the Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth century the empire was completely cosmopolitan. State assistance to the young and the poor was equally generous. University students received government grants to cover their expenses while they were receiving higher education. The State likewise offered free medical treatment to the poor. The first free public hospital was opened in Baghdad in the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain to what is now Pakistan. The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin. It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the welfare state as the high-water mark of human attainment. It may merely prove to be one more regular milestone in the life-story of an ageing and decrepit empire.
It is of interest to note that
decadence is the disintegration of a system, not of its individual members. The
habits of the members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of
too much money and too much power for too long a period. The result has been,
in the framework of their national life, to make them selfish and idle. A
community of selfish and idle people declines, internal quarrels develop in the
division of its dwindling wealth, and pessimism follows, which some of them endeavor to drown in sensuality or frivolity. In their own surroundings, they
are unable to redirect their thoughts and their energies into new channels.
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But when individual members of such a society emigrate into entirely new surroundings, they do not remain conspicuously decadent, pessimistic or immoral among the inhabitants of their new homeland. Once enabled to break away from their old channels of thought, and after a short period of readjustment, they become normal citizens of their adopted countries. Some of them, in the second and third generations, may attain pre-eminence and leadership in their new communities. This seems to prove that the decline of any nation does not undermine the energies or the basic character of its members. Nor does the decadence of a number of such nations permanently impoverish the human race.
Decadence is both mental and moral deterioration, produced by the slow decline of the community from which its members cannot escape, as long as they remain in their old surroundings. But, transported elsewhere, they soon discard their decadent ways of thought, and prove themselves equal to the other citizens of their adopted country. Neither is decadence physical. The citizens of nations in decline are sometimes described as too physically emasculated to be able to bear hardship or make great efforts. This does not seem to be a true picture. Citizens of great nations in decadence are normally physically larger and stronger than those of their barbarian invaders [...] Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not convinced that anything in life is worth saving."
If superpowers inevitably break down around the 10th generation, then in Glubb’s framework the global empire of the United States would be superseded by another great power by the year 2026 at the very least.
Reference:
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| » When the ordinary thought of a highly cultivated people begins to regard 'having children' as a question of pro's and con's, the great turning point has come. « - Oswald Spengler, 1918 |
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