Showing posts with label Jesse Livermore. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jesse Livermore. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 (monthly bars). Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly Highs and Lows and Targets. First month up.
Cup & Handle pattern? No.  
 
 
 
 Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars). Four weeks up. Current inside.

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars)
 
Nasdaq 100 (1 hour bars) - Last week narrow range. This one still inside. Close above balance line. 
 
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday 'Major Red News'.
 
 

Sunday, August 13, 2023

The Central Pivot Range & Floor Trader Pivots | Franklin O. Ochoa Jr.

Floor Trader Pivots have been around for a long time and many traders have used these pivots to master the market for decades. Larry Williams re-popularized the formula by including it in his book, How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities (1979). He described the "Pivot Price Formula" that he used to arrive at the next day's probable high or low. The concept of the Central Pivot Range was developed by Frank Ochoa (2010) based on Mark Fisher's Pivot Range (2002).  

Here is is one example of a trading strategy: Buy at the Central Pivot Range's support in an uptrend and sell at resistance in a downtrend. Filter all Floor Trader Pivots except S1, R2, and the central pivot point when the market is in an uptrend. In a downtrend, all pivots are filtered except R1, S2, and the central pivot point. If the market is trending higher, one should look to buy at support at either S1 or the central pivot range with the  target set to a new high at either R1 or R2.
 
Likewise, if the market is trending lower, look to sell at resistance at either R1 or the central pivot range with the target set to a new low at either S1 or S2. It takes a lot of conviction to break a trend and push prices in the other direction, which means to be able to identify the change in trend early enough, to profit from a very enthusiastic price move, which can last a day, or even weeks. Once a severe breach occurs through the first layer of the pivots, one typically sees a shift of the trend toward the opposite extreme. That is, a bullish trend becomes a bearish trend, and a bearish trend becomes a bullish trend. Two key buying or selling zones, S1 and the central pivot range in an uptrend, and R1 and the central pivot range in a downtrend.
 
CPR as a Magnet for Price 
The central pivot range (CPR) can have an amazing magnetic effect on price that can lead to a high percentage fill of the morning gap. If price opens the day with a gap and the centrals are back near the prior day's close, you typically see a fill of the gap a high percentage of the time, given the right circumstances. The central pivot point is reached 63 percent of the time at some point during the day. When the market gaps at the open, the trade inherently has a 63 percent chance of being a winner. Gaps that are too large don't tend to fill as easily as those that are moderate in size. Pivot range placement should be at, or very near, the prior day's closing price. If the range is too close to price, however, it could hinder the market's ability to fill the gap. Don’t wait all day for a gap to fill, because the longer the trade takes, the more unlikely it is to fill. Gap fills in general, seem to work best during earnings season. If price gaps up to R1 resistance, or down to S1 support, these pivots can serve as a barrier to a breakaway trade, which leads to a higher percentage of filled gaps. A gap down requires much more confirmation, conviction, and volume in order to fill the gap on most occasions.
 
Breakaway Strategy 
When the market has formed a narrow-range day (NR4, NR7) in the prior session, the pivots are likely to be tight, or narrow. Narrow pivots foster breakout and trending sessions. If the market opens the session with a gap that is beyond the prior day's price range and beyond the first layer of the indicator, the chances of reaching pivots beyond the second layer of the indicator increase dramatically. Price opened the day with a gap that occurred beyond the prior day's price range and above R1 resistance. When this occurs, one should study price behavior very closely in order to determine if the pivot that was surpassed via the gap will hold. If the pivot holds as support, you will look to enter the market long with your sights set on R3 as the target. The third and fourth layers are 30 percent more likely to be tested when price gaps beyond the first layer of the indicator. When trading the Breakaway Strategy using the Floor Trader Pivots, one should typically like to see the gap occur beyond the prior day's range and value, preferably just beyond the first layer of the indicator. In addition, the gap should occur no farther than the second layer of the pivots.  
 
CPR Width Forecasting
Pivot Width is the distance between the top central pivot (TC) and the bottom central pivot (BC). Since the prior day's trading activity leads to the creation of today's pivots, it is extremely important to understand how the market behaved in the prior day in order to forecast what may occur in the upcoming session. More specifically, if the market experienced a wide range of movement in the prior session, the pivots for the following day will likely be wider than normal, which usually leads to a Typical Day, Trading Range Day, or Sideways Day scenario. Conversely, if the market experiences a very quiet trading day in the prior session, the pivots for the following day are likely to be unusually tight, or narrow, which typically leads to a Trend Day, Double-Distribution Trend Day, or Extended Typical Day scenario.  
 
 
Pivot width analysis works best when the range of movement is distinctly high or low, thereby creating unusually wide or narrow pivots If the pivot width is not distinctly wide or narrow, it becomes very difficult to predict potential trading behavior with any degree of certainty for the following session. An unusually narrow pivot range usually indicates the market is primed for an explosive breakout opportunity. A tight central pivot range can be dynamite. Be aware when a day has the potential to start off with a bang. A day that has a wide range of movement, like a Trend Day, will lead to the creation of an abnormally wide pivot range for the following session. In this instance, you typically see a quieter atmosphere in the market, as dictated by the wide-set pivot range. Sometimes, a wide-set pivot range leads to nice trading range behavior that allows you to pick off quick intraday swings in the market, much like the Trading Range Day. The key to trading a day when the centrals are wide is to identify the day's initial balance after the first hour of trading. If the initial balance has a wide enough width, you are likely to see trading range behavior within the high and low of the first sixty minutes of the day. If the initial balance coincides with key pivot levels, you have highly confirmed support and resistance levels that offer great opportunities for short-term bounces.

The market has a much better chance to reach pivots beyond the second layer of the Floor Pivots indicator if the central pivot range is unusually narrow due to a low-range trading day in the prior session. Conversely, a market is less likely to reach pivots beyond the second layer of the indicator if the central pivot range is unusually wide due to a wide-range trading day in the prior session.
  
CPR Trend Analysis 
Buying the dips means buying the pull-backs within an uptrend, while selling the rips means selling (or shorting) the rallies within a downtrend. One of the best ways to buy and sell pull-backs in a trend is to play the bounces off the central pivot range, which is the method many professionals use. A strong trend can usually be gauged by how price remains above the bottom central pivot (BC) while in an uptrend, and below the top central pivot (TC) while in a downtrend. Once price violates this paradigm by closing beyond the range for the day, you see either a change in trend or a trading range market develop. Pull-back opportunities usually occur early in the session, with follow-through occurring the rest of the day. Any pull-back to the range early in the morning is a buying or selling opportunity depending on the direction of the trend. Once in the trade, the goal is to either ride the trade to a prior area of support or resistance, or to a new high or low within the trend.


Two-Day CPR Range Relationships
Understanding how the current central pivot range relates to a prior day's CPR will go a long way toward understanding current market behavior and future price movement. Where the market closes in relation to the pivot range gives you an initial directional bias for the following session. The next day's opening price will either confirm or reject this bias Higher Value relationship. Current day's pivot range is completely higher than the prior day's pivot range.
 
 
Two-Day Unchanged CPR Range = Sideways or Breakout Bias
The current pivot range is virtually unchanged from the prior day's range. Of the seven two-day relationships, this is the only one that can project two very different outcomes, posing a bit of a dichotomy. On the one hand, a two-day neutral pivot range indicates that the market is satisfied with the facilitation of trade within the current range. When this occurs, the market will trade quietly within the boundaries of the existing two or three day trading range. On the other hand, however, a two-day unchanged pivot range relationship can indicate the market is on the verge of a major breakout opportunity, similar to when the market has formed two, or more, points of control that are unchanged. The outcome is typically driven by the opening print of the current session. If the market opens the day near the prior session's closing price and well within the prior day's range, the market will likely lack the conviction necessary for a breakout attempt. If the opening print occurs beyond the prior day's price range, or very close to an extreme, the chances are good that a breakout opportunity may lie ahead.

Daily CPR Width and Range Relationships.

Outside CPR Range = Sideways Bias
This happens when the current day's pivot range completely engulfs the prior day's range. This two-day relationship typically implies sideways or trading range activity, as the market is happy with the current facilitation of trade in the current price range. A wide range will usually indicate trading range behavior This relationship is much more telling if the current day's pivot range is significantly wider than the prior day's range. Otherwise, merely engulfing the prior day's range without the necessary width may lead to the same result, but with less accuracy.

Inside CPR Range = Breakout Bias
It occurs when the current day's pivot range is completely inside the prior day's range. This two-day relationship typically implies a breakout opportunity for the current session, as the market is likely winding up ahead of a breakout attempt. If the market opens the day beyond the prior day's price range, there is a very good chance that initiative participants will enter the market with conviction in order to push price to new value. If the market opens the day within the prior day's price range, a breakout opportunity could still be had, but with much less conviction. This two-day relationship doesn't occur frequently. On the days when it develops, usually lead to major trending sessions. If the prior day's pivot range is noticeably wider than the inside day pivot range, you are more likely to see a breakout opportunity, especially if the current day's pivot range is very narrow. If both pivot ranges are virtually the same width, but technically meet the inside requirement, the rate of success will noticeably drop.

Daily CPR Width and Range Relationships and Floor Trader Pivot Levels.

Higher CPR Range = Bullish Bias
Current day's pivot range is completely higher than the prior day's pivot range. The most bullish relationship of the seven two-day combinations Initial directional bias will be bullish. However, how the market opens the day will either confirm or reject this initial bias. If the market opens the day anywhere above the bottom of the pivot range, you will look to buy a pull-back to the range ahead of a move to new highs. This is especially the case if price opens above the top of the range. As long as the market opens the following day above the bottom of the pivot range, but preferably above the top of the range, any pull-back to the range should be seen as a buying opportunity.

Lower CPR Range = Bearish Bias 
It occurs when the current day's pivot range is completely lower than the prior session's range. This is the most bearish two-day relationship and typically leads to further weakness should the current day's opening price confirm the directional bias. If price opens the session below the central pivot range, you will look to sell any pull-back to the range ahead of a drop to new lows within the current trend. If price opens the following session below the top of the pivot range, but preferably below the bottom of the range, any pull-back to the range should be a selling opportunity. It must be reiterated, however, that just because a two-day relationship implies a certain behavior in price, this bias must be confirmed by the opening print. While a Lower Value relationship is the most bearish two-day relationship, perhaps the biggest rallies occur when the opening print rejects the original bias.

Overlapping Higher CPR Range = Moderately Bullish Bias
This offers a moderately bullish outlook for the upcoming session. The top of the range is higher than the top of yesterday's range, but the bottom of the range is lower than the top of yesterday's range. The same closing and opening price dynamics are in effect for this relationship as well.

Overlapping Lower CPR Range = Moderately Bearish Bias 
The current day's bottom central pivot is lower than the bottom of the prior day's range, but the top of the current day's range is higher than the bottom of the prior day's range.It indicates a moderately bearish outlook for the forthcoming session. If price opens within or below the pivot range, price should continue to auction lower. Any pull-back to the range should be seen as a selling opportunity.
 
Weekly CPR Width and Range Relationships.
 
References:

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Only the Right Side | Jesse Livermore


» It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. 
They say there are two sides to everything.
But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or bear side but the right side.
It took me longer to get that principle fixed firmly in my mind 
than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.
 
 I have heard of people who amuse themselves conducting imaginary operations in the
stock market to prove with imaginary dollars how right they are. 
Sometimes these ghost gamblers make millions. 
It is very easy to be a plunger that way.
 
It is like the old story of the man who was going to fight a duel the next day.
His second asked him, "Are you a good shot?"
"Well," said the duelist, "I can snap the stem of a wineglass at twenty paces," and he looked modest.
"That's all very well," said the unimpressed second. 
"But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?" «

Jesse Livermore

Quoted from:
Edwin Lefèvre (1923) - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Friday, March 17, 2023

How Livermore Judges the Turning Points | Richard D. Wyckoff

Judging the main turning points in the long swings is the most important thing that he does, and if he could accomplish nothing else in between the panics and booms and accurately judge the right time for changing his position, he knows that he has a starting point for the rolling up of tremendous profits during the intervening year or two while the market is on its way from nadir to zenith. It is perfectly clear why this is so. A man who loads up at the low point of a panic has a certain amount of working capital. If he succeeds in selling out near the top of the boom, he has not only his original capital but his aggregate profits as well. If he then takes a short position with the line increased by reason of these profits and successfully rides this short line down to the next panic, he will find his resources vastly increased.
 
Quotation Board Girls copying the latest numbers calculated by the
Composite Man to the quotation board
in Waldorf Astoria's lobby to be acknowledged by the crowd as
the price and nothing but the price; New York, 1918.
 
These lines of stocks which Livermore takes on at the low points are not of course, always sold at the topmost prices. As the market executes its series of intermediate swings and begins to approach the level when an important turning point is likely to occur, he looks for more frequent reactions, and, therefore, will very often liquidate all or part of his line on some of the strong bulges which occur in the upper stages of the market, or in what is known as the selling zone. He does not consider it good policy to try and get the last point, for many things can happen which might bring the ultimate turning point nearer than he anticipated. 
 
He knows that all stocks do not make their tops simultaneously. Some reach their apex months before the last of them have exhausted their lifting power. The bull forces may be likened to an army which is carrying the defenses of the enemy: it can advance just so far without becoming exhausted and falling back. He knows that the principal bull ammunition is money and that general conditions govern and limit the extent of any move; also that it is not so much the news, the statistics, the dividends, etc. that are important but what is of dominating importance is the effect of the developments on the minds of men and the extent to which traders and investors are thereby induced to buy or sell. The market is not affected by what a million people think about the market, but it is immediately affected by their actual buying and selling or their failure to do either. 
 
 
While the long swings are of the utmost importance to him, they do not by any means constitute all of his operations. He is an active trader, for long ago he cured himself of jumping in and out of the market day after day.  
 
Next in importance to the trades which he makes are the intermediate swings running from ten to thirty points and from a week or two to a few months in duration. Let us say that the market is getting into the upper levels and although not at the turning point becomes overbought and the technical position is such that a reaction of ten to fifteen points is imminent. He decides that under such conditions it is best for him to reduce his line of long stocks in order that he may take advantage of whatever decline occurs by replacing them at lower prices. He may have twenty or thirty points profit in a certain lot of stock which he believes will sell at a higher figure eventually, but if he can close this out on the verge of a sharp reaction and replace it ten points cheaper, he has thereby reduced the original cost by that much. His judgment of the time and the direction of these intermediate swings can only be formed accurately by the action of the market as recorded on the tape of the ticker. He cannot gauge it properly in any other way. Where else can he see the gradual alteration from strength to weakness in the market; the complete supply of the absorption power; the ultimate weakening of support and the numerous other characteristics of such an episode.

Wyckoff started as a stockbroker's runner at the age of 15,
became a brokerage firm auditor a few years later,
and at age 25 opened his own brokerage firm.

Just as the market displays to his practiced eye the downward phase, so it forecasts the end of the reaction and the time to resume the long side. These indications appear in the leading stocks of important groups and in many individual issues - usually the most popular trading mediums. The principles of judging the market by its own action, Livermore learned long ago and he found that they operate over the whole wide range of stock market movements, from the little half-hourly ripples back and forth to the great swings in prices running from one to three years. It is a question of supply and demand and once recognized and properly applied, it goes a long way toward solving of most stock market problems.


The market moves along the line of least resistance and when demand is greater than supply this line is upward. To detect the momentary changes as well as those taking a longer time to work out, is the daily task of Mr. Livermore, just as it is the business of every manufacturer and merchant to judge the future course of his particular industry.

 
See also:
Richard D. Wyckoff (1910) - Studies in Tape Reading.
Richard D. Wyckoff (1922) - Exposing and Killing the Bucket Shops. 
Edwin Lefèvre (1923) - Jesse Livermore - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Edwin Lefèvre (1925) - The Making of a Stockbroker. 
Richard D. Wyckoff (1930) - Wall Street Ventures & Adventures through Forty Years.
 Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks. 

Monday, February 13, 2023

The Arithmetic of Pump & Dump Patterns | Jesse Livermore


Jesse Livermore was born in 1877 in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts, to a poverty-stricken farmer family. He learned to read and write at the age of three-and-a-half. At the age of 14 his father pulled him out of school to help with the farm. However, with his mother's blessing, Livermore ran away from home to begin to live on his own behalf and responsibility aged 14 as a quotation board boy at a Boston stock brokerage business earning $5 per week. By 1923 Livermore was one of the richest people in the world. He was, he believed, particularly suited to his first job because of his strong abilities in mental arithmetic and number memorization.
 
The 1870 census in the US found that 1 out of every 8 children below 14 years old
was a wage slave. By 1910 it was 1 out of 5.
 
Stock and commodity prices came into his broker’s office on a ticker tape, a continuous strip of paper. It was Livermore’s job to read, to memorize and to transfer all the price numbers as they come in to the quotation board outside for all the broker’s different clientele crowds in and around the trading pits and lobbies to be seen and to animate them to act in that very specific foolish way they were expected to act: buying and selling and placing buy-, sell- and stop orders at certain levels. This is exactly what generates these constantly repeating tremendous opportunities, profits and cuts for the broker and for the invisible Composite Operator over there in New York and in Chicago. He realized that for the rest of his life his destiny became aligned to this information of the ticker tape and his ability to understand the message of the algorithm. Livermore literally saw patterns in the waves of numbers that flowed each day from the tape and aligned his activity accordingly. He began to write those numbers in his own notebook and tested himself, predicting the direction that different stock prices would take at certain levels, times and days. 
 
Patterns in the Waves of Numbers:
Arithmetic of the Pump and Dump.
 
Price delivered by Composite Man for the broker through the broker to the broker's different clientele crowds. Livermore realized that scheme generates more profit than any other business activity ever known to man. For the Composite Operator. Hence he aligned himself to the tune of the invisible Composite Operator's price algorithm coming in on the ticker tape from New York and Chicago. The cumulative price range of all one minute price bars of any instrument traded by any broker on any given day nowadays exceeds what is called The Average Daily Price Range by the factor of fifty. Fifty times the so called average daily trading range during each and every single trading day. Up and down. Every day. Say the average daily price range of a given instrument is 1,000, the cumulative price will range around 50,000 during any trading day. Up and down. From balance to imbalance back and forth in this very specific manner and sequence through time and price.
 
He used breakouts to a high degree of success. He would wait for price to break above a certain pivot level and then go long to ride on the emerging trend. Daily and weekly highs and lows, session highs and lows, measured moves and Floor Trader's Daily and Weekly Pivot Point Levels provide all clues for Livermore's pivotal levels. He would exit a trade only when a similar breakout occurs in the opposite direction, signifying a potential reversal in trend after a peak formation high or low, that is a change of structure and direction of price. If the reversal signal is strong enough, he would take a short trade and ride the bear market.
 
"Many years of my life had been devoted to speculation before it dawned upon me that nothing new was happening in the stock market, that price movements were simply being repeated, that while there was variation in different stocks the general price pattern was the same." Livermore used to say: "Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again". 
 
In his notebook Livermore fills prices into columns headed Secondary Rally  -  Natural Rally Up Trend  - Down Trend  -  Natural Reaction, and Secondary Reaction.
 
Trend Change Rules

Livermore’s approach to swing trading required two filters: (1.) a larger swing filter and (2.) a penetration filter of one-half the size of the swing filter. Penetrations were significant at price levels he called pivot points. A pivot point is defined in retrospect as the top and bottom of each new swing. The pivot points in the below swing chart are marked with letters. Positions are taken only in the direction of the major trend. A major uptrend is defined by confirming higher highs and higher lows, and a major downtrend by lower lows and lower highs, and where the penetration filter (swing filter) is not broken in the reverse direction. That is, an uptrend is still intact as long as prices do not decline below the previous pivot point by as much as the amount of the penetration filter. Once the trend is identified, positions are added each time a new penetration occurs, confirming the trend's direction. A stop-loss is placed at the point of penetration beyond the prior pivot point. Unfortunately Livermore never revealed how the penetration point was calculated. It seems however to be a percentage of the current swing size (e.g. 16%, 20%, 25%, 33%,50%)
 
Failed Reversal in the Livermore Method

In Livermore's system the first penetration of the stop-loss (a swing high or low depending on the direction of the trade) calls for liquidation of the current position. A second penetration is the necessary confirmation for the new trend. If the second penetration fails (at point K) it is considered a secondary reaction within the old trend. The downtrend may be re-entered at a distance of the swing filter below K, guaranteeing that point K is defined, and again on the next swing, following pivot point M when prices reach the penetration level below pivot point L. It is easier to re-enter an old trend than to establish a position in a new one.
 
This is Jesse Livormore's insight and conclusion:
  1. Markets are never wrong opinions often are. Back your judgment and don't trust your opinion, until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.
  2. Few people ever make money on tips, beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket.
  3. Money is made by sitting, not trading. It takes time to make money. Don't give me timing; give me time.
  4. Buy right, sit tight. Big movements take time to develop. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
  5. Money cannot consistently be made by trading every day or every week during the year.
  6. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating or investing in securities and commodities.
  7. Never average losses.
  8. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or speculator. Wishful thinking must be banished.
 

References:
Richard D. Wyckoff (1920) - Jesse Livermore's Methods of Trading in Stocks.
Edwin Lefèvre (1923) - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
Jesse Livermore (1940) - How To Trade In Stocks.
Jesse Thompson (1983) - The Livermore System. In: Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities. 
Mark B. Fisher (2002) - The Logical Trader.
 Richard Smitten (2005) - Trade Like Jesse Livermore.

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Range Extension & Contraction - Reversals - Time Cycles | Stacey Burke

 
oOo
 
Old Baron Rothschild's recipe for wealth winning applies with greater force than ever to speculation. Somebody asked him if making money in the Bourse was not a very difficult matter, and he replied that, on the contrary, he thought it was very easy. "That is because you are so rich," objected the interviewer. "Not at all. I have found an easy way and I stick to it. I simply cannot help making money. I will tell you my secret if you wish. It is this : I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon."

Jesse L. Livermore

oOo

Quoted from:
 
See also:
 
Weekly Cycle and Market Structure in Gold (1 hour chart):
Daily and Weekly Highs and Lows, Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels, Inside Days, Outside Days,
Daily and Weekly Accumulation-, Extension-, and Distribution-Levels, Breakouts, False Breakouts,
V Patterns, M & W Patterns, Peak Formation Highs and Lows.