Bullish Weekly Price Action in US Stock Indices & Stats | Guilherme Tavares

From a price action perspective, the latest weekly close was quite bullish. Since the 70s, there have been few instances when the SPX reclaimed its 50-week MA within just 1 week after losing it, having previously been in an upward trend.

Average return 5 weeks later: 2.95%, positive 83% of the time.

Guilherme Tavares, March 25, 2025.

 

 NYA, SPY, ES, S&P 500, NQ, YM (weekly candles): 

Weekly Pivots and Retracement Levels.

 

Wednesday, March 26: Continuation or Reversal?

 

Frank Ochoa (March 25, 2025) - Pre-Market Video:
Last Week Compression. This Week Bullish Expansion? (video)

 Oppenheimer: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Trajectory (2020-2025): 

Buy March 23. From April high sideways-to-down into mid May low.

BoA: S&P 500's Average Seasonal Pattern (2015-2025): 

"Buy April Dip for May Rip."

 

Jeff Hirsch: April is the second-best month for DJIA (+1.8%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) since 1950 and
fourth best for NASDAQ (+1.3%) since 1971. Post-election year April performance is just as good.

 

Carl Futia : June S&P E-mini futures headed for new bull market highs. 

Support is now 5800. 

 

Tom Pizzuti (March 25, 2025: "I’m not wholly certain that the wave iii low was set on

March 13th. and thus, open to a new low to complete iii. Of course, I could be wrong."

 

Robert Miner: Spring Low – Summer High – Fall Low – Bull into Year-End.

 Post-Election Years with 1st-Term Democrats +14%, 1st-Term Republicans +1%. 

See also:
TPR (March 23, 2025) - Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2.

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 

 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 

Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18. 

Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.

Winter began on November 7; Light Snow on November 22.  

US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.

Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

See also: 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns.

A Sophisticated Look at Pivot Points | John Seckinger

The following is based on an SFO article published in December 2004 by John Seckinger, titled, "Take a Two-Dimensional Approach: A Sophisticated Look at Pivot Points." He offers these tips:

■    Don't look at the range of S2 to R2 as support and resistance levels. Rather, consider them oversold (S) and 

       overbought (R) areas.
■    S2 to R2 range of values across daily, weekly, and monthly periods: If two values are close together then they 

       lend more significance to the area.
■    If the market trends on day 1, the odds rise tremendously that the market will be range bound between daily

       S1 and daily R1 the next day.
■    In a quiet market when traders are waiting for an important earnings announcement or economic report, 

       look for daily R1 and S1 levels to hold and for the market to return to the daily pivot.
■    A move outside of daily R1 or S1 usually does not mean a breakout.
■    The odds suggest that the entire week's price action will remain between weekly R2 and S2.
■    Avoid going long when the market moves above weekly R2 (it's overbought) 

       and avoid going short when price moves below weekly S2 (oversold).
■    Consider going short at weekly R1 or long at weekly S1 with a profit objective of the weekly pivot.
■    Consider going long at weekly S2 or short at weekly R2 with a profit objective of weekly S1 or R1,  respectively.

 

   —  John Seckinger

Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Floor Trader Pivot Points for the Week of September 9, 2024:

 

 » There often will be confluences when comparing the weekly and daily S2 to R2 levels 

that increase this area’s significance. «   —  John Seckinger

Here are the formulas to calculate daily, weekly, monthly, etc. Floor Trader Pivot Points:

Quoted from:
Thomas Bulkowski (September 7, 2024) - Swing Traders: Pivot Points.

 

DJIA Index (daily bars) — Weekly Pivot Levels (September 3 - 6) & Daily Pivot Levels (Friday, September 6).

See also:
John Seckinger (2004) - Take a Two-Dimensional Approach: A Sophisticated Look at Pivot Points.

Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss - Revealing Proven Methods for Profiting in the Market.

MyPivots.com (2024) - Daily and Weekly Trading Metrics for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Cash Index.

Recent Toby Crabel Price Pattern Setups in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) - (1) - (2) - (3) - (4)

(1)   2BNR is the 2 Bar Narrow Range: If the 2-day-range (the higher of the 2 highs less the lower of the 2 lows) is the narrowest 2-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions then we are currently sitting on a 2BNR.
(2)   3BNR is the 3 Bar Narrow Range: If the 3-day-range (the higher of the 3 highs less the lower of the 3 lows) is the narrowest 3-day-range in the last 20 trading sessions then this is true.
(3)   » Next time you see an Outside Day with a down close lower than the previous day, don't get scared, get ready to buy ! «
(4) 4BNR and Inside Day with an Up-Close -  narrowest weekly range of last 7 ... weekly directional change already due? ... or early September?

Reference:
Toby Crabel (1990) - 2-Bar Narrow Range Setup.
Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.
Toby Crabel (1990) - Definition of Price Patterns.
Larry Williams (1998) - Outside Bar Trading Setups.

Larry Williams (1995) - An Outside Look at Inside Days.

D'onte Goodridge (2022) - Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) Data Ranges.

D'onte Goodridge (2023) - Structural Characteristics of Bullish & Bearish Months.

TPR (July 25, 2024) - Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2024.

Martin A. Armstrong (July 14, 2024) - Next weekly directional change during week of August 26.

MyPivots.com (2024) - Scanner for Toby Crabel Price Patterns in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures.

 

S&P 500 Time & Price Targets | Seasonality & Measured Moves

 Second push and month out of the April-May consolidation seems about to complete at around 5,750

by Wednesday or Thursday this week. 

 First month of the third quarter. After a sideways-to-down retracement, third push in August to around 6,000 (± 100)? 

The tri-annual R1 level is at 6,019.

Or the Armstrong Panic Cycle kicks in right now this week or the Feigenbaum Cycle in early August? 

The 40 Month and the 42 Month Cycles point to a multiyear high in August (± 2).

 

Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2024

 Nearly all gains during the first 13 trading days of July | Jeff Hirsch

 

 

 Are We Due For A Little Mean Reversion? | Jeff Hirsch

 

The S&P 500 and the Election Year Cycle | Robert Miner

 

Unpleasant Time Ahead For Stock Market | Tom McClellan

S&P 500 vs Tri-Annual, Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly & Daily Pivot Levels

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Tri-Annual Pivot Levels (for 2022-2024).

Based on spectrum analysis, Sergey Tarassov forcasted a multiyear high in US-stocks sometime 

around August 2024 between the crests of the 40 Month Cycle and the 42 Month Cycle. 

By then the tri-annual R1 level at 6,019 could well be reached. R2 is at 6,928.

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Yearly Pivot Levels (for 2024).
Tri-Annual and Yearly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for long-term investing or swing trading

with a time frame of several months to a year or more.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (weekly candles) vs Quarterly Pivot Levels (for Q3 July-September 2024).
Quarterly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for medium-term trading with a time frame of several 

weeks to a few months. They are useful for identifying intermediate support and resistance levels, 

trend continuations, and potential corrections.

.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Monthly Pivot Levels (for (July 2024).
Monthly Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term to medium-term trading 

with a time frame of several days to a few weeks.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily candles) vs Weekly Pivot Levels (for July 07-12, 2024).
Weekly Pivot Points and Levels are suitable for short-term trading with a time frame of one to several

days to a week, to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend continuations, and potential reversals.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (4 hour candles) vs Daily Pivot Levels (for July 10, 2024).
Daily Pivot Points and Levels are ideal for short-term and intraday trading with a time frame of several hours to a day in order to identify short-term support and resistance levels, trend reversals, and potential breakouts. Daily Pivots can be used to make quick trading decisions, adjust stop-losses, or set price targets for the current trading session.

 

Pivot Points, Support and Resistance levels are calculated based on previous high, low, and close prices. These levels can identify areas, where price may bounce, reverse or break through, and where to set entry, stop-loss and take-profit orders. This technique is valid on various timeframes. Common types are Floor (Trader) Pivots a.k.a. Standard or Traditional Pivots (= all charts above), Central Pivot Range (CPR), Fibonacci, Woodie, Classic, Camarilla and DeMark Pivot Points, each type having their own calculation method.

 

Reference:
Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss.

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (July 10, 2024) - Soaring NASDAQ Approaching End of Midyear Rally.

S&P 500 — Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly Floor Trader Pivots Levels

S&P 500 — Monthly Bars  — Yearly (2024) Pivots Levels:

R2  5,453  —  R1  5,110  —  MR1 4,781
Yearly Pivot Point (YPP)  4,551
MS1  4,280  —  S1  4,108  —  S2  3,449

 S&P 500 — Weekly Bars  — Quarterly (Q2 2024) Pivots Levels:

R2  5,662  —  R1  5,546  —  MR1  5,258
Quarterly Pivot Point (QPP)  5,059
MS1  4,956  —  S1  4,853  —  S2  4,456
 

 S&P 500 — Daily Bars  — Quarterly (Q2) and Monthly (June) Pivots Levels:

R2  5,558  —  MR2  5,490  — R1  5,423  —  MR1  5,319
Monthly Pivot Point  (PP) 5,215
MS1  5,147  —  S1  5,080  —  MS2  4,976  —  S2  4,872

 

Reference:

 Franklin O. Ochoa Jr. (2010) - Secrets of a Pivot Boss.  

 

 Time Frames - Price Ranges - Time-Price Proportions.

Nasdaq and S&P Top on June 12 | Barry Rosen

While Dow Transports and Industrials gave early topping signals and Russell has been struggling, NQ and the S&P have not given it up yet. We are still friendly stocks for about a week until S&P cash hits 5,400 and not in trouble unless S&P cash takes out 5,250 now. NASDAQ 100 June futures went and held key support at 18,240 on Friday. The S&P only managed a 3-wave fall although it did hit 5,193 —a bit deeper than we had liked. The astonishing close last Friday kind of thing funds love to see and so often 1st of the month buying comes in. 

S&P 500 (Daily Bars), Monthly Pivot Levels and 9-Day EMA.

 June 5 = Weekly Reversal Up.

 

 Nasdaq (Daily Bars), Monthly Pivot Levels and 9-Day EMA.

 June 5 = Weekly Reversal Up.

Cycles look positive the week of June 3rd and into the FOMC [Wednesday, June 12]. We had alerted you for secondary highs into the FOMC and they are starting to manifest. We are clear about a fall from June 12th into June 20th and then will evaluate the pattern. Because the market only fell in 3 waves and NQ fell to the minimum support area, new highs on NQ to 19,200-19,300 are very likely. 

 

Quoted from:

Barry Rosen (June 5, 2024) @ X

 

See also:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (June 1, 2024) - June Better in Election Years: Average Gains Range from 0.9% DJIA to 1.9% NASDAQ.

Gold Breakout - Target 2,530 to 2,700 | Peter L. Brandt

This is a FOR REAL breakout in Gold. Goldfinger points to a target range of 2,530 to 2,700.

 

Peter L. Brandt @ Twitter/X (Mar 06, 2024)

 

June is typically the lowest month for Gold. 

The graph is based on the average prices; there are times when June tops rather than bottoms. 

Buy dips around monthly pivot levels. 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC had an interesting point about gold. The big money "commercial" traders responded to the rally in gold this week by posting the biggest jump in years in their collective net short position. This marks this week’s pop as at least a short term price top.

There has also been a big jump in total open interest lately. Usually such events mark a blowoff top in gold prices, although occasionally they are seen at a breakout point.

 Curiously, though, the small speculators in the "non-reportable" category were not chasing this week’s rally, and instead they reduced their net long position. They have not been net short as a group since 2016, so the analysis task consists in evaluating their relative net long position as a group. Having the small specs feel scared by this rally says it has some enduring legitimacy, once the short term overbought condition can get worked off. 

Tom McClellan @ Twitter/X (Mar 09, 2024)