Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 

followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 

below the October 2023 low.

 

The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 

Reference:

Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.

 

 

Late-March Rebound: Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has risen 18 times between March 23 and April 27.
Bullish from March 23 Low to April 27 High (2004-2023). Average move higher: +4.78% (during 18 out of 20 years, up = 90%).

 

2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,

with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

Namzes on X, January 6, 2025.

 

Weekly S&P 500 with nominal 180 weeks / 41-Month Kitchin Cycle topping | October 23, 2024

 

Weekly Preview for March 24-28: Short term cycles - early next week 20d low then higher,
Krasi, March 22, 2025.

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update.

 

S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

See also:

¡¡ David Hickson (March 24, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update: Targets and Levels to Watch. (video) !!

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (March 21, 2025) - End of Q1 – Prone to Volatility and Weakness since 1990.

TPR (March 11, 2025) - S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle.

  Lars von Thienen (December 8, 2024) - The Cliff - Don't Be a Lemming. 

Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.

 TPR (December 10, 2024) - 2025 in J.M. Funk’s '56-Year Cycle of Prosperity and Depression'.

S&P 500 Premium and Discount Levels in the Current 18-Month Cycle

 Current 18-Month Cycle in the S&P 500 (weekly bars, October 2023 to March 2025) and retracement levels.

 

The current 18-month cycle began in October 2023 and is expected to bottom between April and June 2025, likely falling below the August 2024 low and the 50% retracement level. J.M. Hurst's nominal 18-month cycle has an average wavelength of 17.93 months, or 77.98 weeks, or 545 calendar days, which can contract and expand significantly (see table and Hurst chart below). The weekly pattern for March appears to be the X-AMD version, meaning this week should be the month's (re-)accumulation phase (while Martin Armstrong alerted to a "panic cycle").

 

In his latest update, David Hickson expects the current 18-Month Cycle to bottom around May-June, and the current 80-Day Cycle this or next week (CPI, Quad Witching, FOMC Statement; see Hurst chart below). Lately, shorter Hurst cycles in the dollar-priced S&P 500 have been distorted by the significant changes in the EUR/USD valuation.

 

 Note: Hurst's average wavelengths can contract and expand significantly. 

 

David Hickson (March 10, 2025) - S&P 500 Hurst Cycles Update. (video)

 

See also:

TPR (March 7, 2025) - The Three Week Cycle, Quarterly Shift, and IPDA Data Ranges.

Robert Miner (2025) - S&P 500 Post-Election Year Patterns by Political Parties. 

 The Most Consistent Seasonal Patterns in the S&P 500 | With Statistics.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (February 26, 2025) - Beware The Ides of March.

Hurst Cycles Forecast Bearish Q1 for S&P 500 & NASDAQ │ David Hickson

The first quarter of 2025 is expected to be bearish for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Following the 40-day cycle trough observed in early December, the S&P 500 is expected to form a 80-day cycle trough around mid-January, i.e., this week.

 

 

 S&P 500 down into late March or early April.

A significant cycle trough in the first few months of 2025 is anticipated, likely around March or April. The price action as it exits the 80-day cycle trough will be crucial in determining the strength of the recovery or the continuation of the bearish trend.

 NASDAQ down into May.

The NASDAQ's 20-week cycle trough was formed in mid-December, and a significant 18-month cycle trough is expected around May 2025. A weak bounce from this week's low would indicate further bearish movement into May.

Reference:
David Hickson (January 13, 2025) - A Bearish Start to 2025 - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear | David Rosenberg

One can reasonably debate whether the stock market has risen exponentially but there is no arguing that the surge in the S&P 500 these past two years has been nothing short of extraordinary. And it has clearly gone much further than I thought it would, especially in these past twelve months, and so at this point, it is worth the time and effort to discuss and interpret the message from the market.
 

 » Smells of capitulation. «

The bottom line: Tip the hat to the bulls who have, after all, been on the right side of the trade, and provide some rationale behind this powerful surge. This is not some attempt at a mea culpa or a throwing in of any towel, as much as the lament of a bear who has come to grips with the premise that while the market has definitely been exuberant, it may not actually be altogether that irrational. Read on.

Quoted from:
David Rosenberg (December 6, 2024) - Memo from the Chief Economist: Lament of a Bear. 

 

See also:

Tom McClellan (December 6, 2024) - Presidential Cycle Effects with a New President.
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update.

BlackRock Investment Institute (December 4, 2024) - Due to 'Mega Forces': No More Bust, Only Boom. Outlook 2025.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (December 4, 2024) - December Stock Market Performance in Election Years. 

Tom DeMark (November 18, 2024) - US Stock Market Nearing a Top Similar to 1929.
Lars von Thienen (November 1, 2024) - The 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns in US Stocks.
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices.

D'onte Goodridge (2024) - Structural Characteristics of Bullish and Bearish Months.

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

In early November, both small caps and mid caps took the lead, but they have since paused. Recently, the mega caps have regained leadership, with Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all making sharp moves to the upside. This has contributed to a recent uptick in the S&P 500. On the upside, we have short term resistance levels between 6,073 and 6,176.

S&P 500 (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

S&P 500 (daily bars), 20-trading day cycle trough is expected on December 7 (±3).

The next 20 trading day cycle low is expected on December 7 (±3 trading days), and the dominant cycle trough is due in late May to June of 2025. The market is clearly in a rising phase, with the weekly trend firmly up. Only a drop below the 5,700 low would shift the market from a bullish cycle structure to a bearish one. On the short-term S&P 500 chart, the current setup resembles Apple’s chart: a bullish, right-hand translation throughout nearly the entire rally.

 

Now there is this very narrow window around December 7 for a pullback. The downside base case would be between 6,025 and 5,963, followed by another move to the upside for a higher high. Overall, this remains a very bullish market during a bullish seasonal period, and fading the trend is not advisable at this time.

Reference:
Steve Miller (December 5, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

 

David Hickson (November 25, 2024) - Targets & Levels to Watch - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video) 

 

Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade │ Jeff Hirsch

Thanksgiving [Thursday, November 28] kicks off a run of solid bullish seasonal patterns. November-January is the year’s best consecutive 3-month span (2025 STA p. 149). Then there’s the January Effect (2025 STA p. 112 & 114) of small caps outperforming large caps in January, which begins in mid-December.

 » Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. «

And of course, the "Santa Claus Rally," (2025 STA p. 118) invented and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Almanac. Often confused with any Q4 rally, it is defined as the short, sweet rally that covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. Yale also coined the phrase: "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."

We have combined these seasonal occurrences into a single trade: Buy the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and hold until the 2nd trading day of the New Year. Since 1950, S&P 500 has been up 79.73% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.58%. Russell 2000 is up 77.78% of the time since 1979, average gain 3.34%.

Reference:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 20, 2024) - Feast On Small Caps Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally Trade.

 

 » From November 5 to December 31, the average return of the S&P 500 has been 2.68%; Nasdaq 100 5.53%, 

and Russell 2000 5.7%. In election years S&P 500 3.38%; Nasdaq 100 0.79%, and Russell 2000 7.94%. «

 Goldman Sachs fund flows guru Scott Rubner, November 6, 2024. See also [HERE].

 

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Hurst Cycles; Steve Miller, November 21, 2024. See also [HERE].

See also:

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 5, 2024) - Bullish Novembers in Election Years Have Weak Seasonal Points.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (November 6, 2024) - Presidential Election Day to Yearend Historically Bullish.

Jack Gillen (2009) - Year-End Rally, January Effect, and Trend for the Year Ahead.

S&P 500, VIX, MACD, Seasonality, and LT Hurst Cycles Projection

S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars). 

 Daily trend is up. Weekly close above monthly R2. Daily NR4. Daily MACD (9,13,9) remains supportive. 

Entering Week 2 of the 3 Week Cycle. Monthly True Open. Top of 20 Trading Day Cycle around November 15-18. 

Major news on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

Volatility S&P 500 Index (daily bars).
Weekly close at multi-month support; NR7, 2BNR. Reaching for S2, S3 likely.

Jeff Hirsch's November Seasonality during Election Years.

Winter began on November 7; Light Snow on November 22.  

US stock indices may move sideways to up into mid-November.

ChartingCycles, November 6, 2024.

Hurst Cycles Composite Model suggesting the month's swing-high was reached on November 8.

See also: 41-Month Kitchin Cycle Topping Patterns.

S&P 500 vs VIX Put/Call Ratio | Jason Goepfert

Volume in VIX puts was more than two times that of calls on Friday.
That's one of the highest turnovers in 15 years.
It has typically spiked at times of extreme anxiety.

Jason Goepfert, November 4, 2024.

 

 Preliminary CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Nov. 4 at 2PM ET 

is officially "pretty far up there".

Tom McClellan, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller, November 4, 2024.

 

 S&P 500 E-mini Futures (daily bars) | November 4, 2024.

Equities Endgame? Spectrum Cycle Analysis of US Indices | Richard Smith

 NASDAQ (4-hour closes) - at the top of an 82-day cycle swing.

  E-mini S&P 500 (daily closes) - at the top of an 81-day cycle swing.

S&P 500 (weekly closes) 2017-2024 vs. 180-week cycle composites of all major US stock indices.

Reference:
Richard Smith (October 29, 2024) - Equities endgame? Cycles are screaming caution! (video)

 

Hurst Cycles Market Update — David Hickson, October 28, 2024.

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

S&P Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update | Steve Miller

The upcoming week marks the pre-election period, where heightened election anxiety and a significant earnings schedule are expected to drive high volatility. This trend is likely to continue through election day. Historical analysis shows that the September to November timeframe has often been associated with increased risk, frequently leading to substantial market corrections.

 

SPY (weekly bars), the MACD, and the extreme stretch between the 13-week and 89-week 

moving averages, which historically always leads to extended corrections.

 

Stocks have demonstrated remarkable resilience, displaying behavior that can be characterized as extreme. The above weekly chart of the SPY highlights this dynamic, tracking the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) alongside the distance between the 13-week and 89-week moving averages. Currently, the MACD indicates an unusually wide gap between these averages, suggesting a potential correction on the horizon.

 SPY (weekly bars), six-month cycles, three-month cycles.

When such corrections occur, they can be quite severe. Although the market has remained strong, November and December are anticipated to experience downturns due to the current extremes, which could lead to several challenging weeks ahead. Nevertheless, broader analysis suggests that the bull market may extend into 2025 before facing a significant downturn, potentially resulting in years of low or negative returns in the stock market.

 SPY (daily bars) and 21-trading day cycles with projected ideal troughs around 

November 6 (Wed) and December 4 (Wed), with a margin of ±3 trading days.

An examination of the SPY across various timeframes, including weekly and two-hour metrics, reveals a deterioration in the two-hour indicators, often the first sign of an impending correction. Historical examples, such as the market's reaction following the 2016 Trump election, highlight the potential for volatility. On that occasion, the Dow fell nearly 800 points before rebounding. Similar large movements are anticipated in the days leading up to and following this forthcoming election. While signs of a downturn have been expected for weeks, the market continues to set the course, underscoring its ultimate authority.

Reference:
Steve Miller (October 25, 2024) - S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections Update (video)

 

 

Hurst Cycles in the S&P 500 — David Hickson, October 9, 2024.

S&P 500 Cycle Analysis - Time and Price Projections | Steve Miller

SPX (monthly bars)

SPY (weekly bars)

SPY (daily bars)

SPX (daily bars): ideal 21 Trading Day cycle trough November 6 (Wed) ± 3 days.

VIX (daily bars)

Looking at weekly, daily, and intraday charts, our proprietary indicators indicate a strong bullish sentiment, with the SPY, and QQQ showing very bullish trends. While corrections are often anticipated, the market conditions do not suggest a need to short at this time. The S&P weekly chart remains strong, showing no signs of a peak yet. Although historical valuations are high, there is currently no indication of an impending downturn.

However, we also need to consider potential downside projections. While the market is currently strong, indicators and cycles suggest that we should be cautious as we approach the election period. We anticipate a pullback of approximately 6-10%, with the potential to reach new highs afterward. While cyclical patterns indicate possible declines in Q3 or Q4, our analysis suggests that major corrections might be more pronounced in November or December.

We are experiencing an elevated VIX during a strong market, likely due to geopolitical tensions and the upcoming elections. Historically, such an elevated VIX during bullish trends raises questions about potential market peaks and whether investors are hedging against upcoming volatility. The cycles suggest that implied volatilities might rise sharply post-election, possibly reaching the mid-30s or higher.

Reference:

Steve Miller (October 19, 2024) - US Stock Market - S&P 500 SPY | Price Projections & Timing | Cycle and Chart Analysis. (video)

Hurst Cycles Update for S&P 500, NASDAQ, Gold, and Bitcoin | David Hickson

Reference:
David Hickson (October 14, 2024) - Early Cycle Troughs - Hurst Cycles Market Update. (video)

1986-2024 S&P 500 Index Analog Projection into Early December

On a day to day basis the analog between S&P 500 closing prices of 1986 and 2024 had a 95% positive correlation over the past 180 trading days, which is the period since the beginning of 2024. Of course, only time will tell whether this correlation continues. With that in mind, the analog projects the upcoming swing highs and lows for the month of October to be more or less in line with Jeff Hirsch's average seasonal chart for October in election years: From the latest all-time high of September 26, the next swing low is projected to occur on October 9 (Wed), followed by a high on October 18 (Fri), and a potentially lower low around October 23-25 (Wed-Fri). Then a rally is expected to occur into November 29 (Fri). Note that in this context, direction is more important than price levels. The average S&P 500 return during October was slightly positive between 1950 and 2023, with 45 up years and 29 down years, and an average return of 0.75%.

Seth Golden is extremely optimistic about 2025: "From September 2023 to September 2024, the S&P 500 has been up greater than 30%. Historically, when the S&P 500 >25% over the trailing 12 months or more into a rate cut, stocks have NEVER been lower a year later and up close to +20% on average. There is no soft landing if there is no landing at all in 2025, and by all accounts the setup is clear!"  

 

A potential fly in the ointment for all of the above bullish outlook is Sergey Tarassov's long-term cycle analysis. He suggested that the 41-month Kitchin Cycle in US stocks would peak between June and October 2024, and be followed by a decline into December 2025-January 2026.  

 

That said, from a narrower medium-term Hurst cycle perspective, August 5 marked the low of a 40-week cycle. The market is now trending upward toward the next 40 week cycle's peak, and the last quarter of 2024 may very well conclude with new all-time highs.