The 80-day cycle trough was anticipated around early
to mid-last week, but as of June 16, 2025 (Monday), it is considered overdue. The cycle is at 70 days since
the last trough on April 7, 2025, compared to a recent average
wavelength of 61 days and Hurst’s historical average of 68 days.
with bullish price action likely to follow toward a 20-week cycle trough in early August 2025.
If the trough formed on June 16, 2025, it would be 2 days later than the historical 68-day average. If it formed last Friday (June 13, 2025), it would be 1 day earlier than the average. If price continues downward without a bounce, the trough could be delayed to around Monday, June 23, 2025 (see also Cosmic Cluster Days and Seasonal Pattern), potentially due to a rephasing of the 18-month cycle trough to April 7, 2025 (displacing the 80-day trough by ~20 days).
A straddled trough in Hurst cycle analysis occurs when a cycle trough is weak or hard to identify because shorter
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).
cycles are overshadowed by longer ones (e.g., 20-week, 40-week, 18-month).
The 80-day cycle is weak, showing minimal downward price influence, likely overshadowed by longer cycles (20-week, 40-week, 18-month). This results in a straddled trough, where the trough is subtle and lacks a strong downward move, as seen in the upper chart in the red dashed composite model line. The next 20-Week Cycle Trough is expected in early August 2025, which will likely have a stronger influence on price due to the dominance of longer cycles.
Tom Pizzuti, June 17, 2025 (Tue): It doesn’t look like an impulse up from the June 12th low. I favor a break
under 6052.00 at some point today in an effort to push down to at least 5993.00 and preferably lower.
under 6052.00 at some point today in an effort to push down to at least 5993.00 and preferably lower.
See also:
