Back in February 2024, our main call was to watch for Gold to break the 2,080–2,100 level, which would trigger a trend move; it has since moved up over 2x. Short-term moves
are hard to call and cycles are not stable, so I focus on mini-trend
moves where I can hold a position for several months. We are now
approaching a potential multi-month peak, which will be followed by a
sizable pullback.
The main idea for 2026 is a peak in Q1 around February, followed by a 20%+ decline toward mid-summer in July and a subsequent resumption of the bull market.
Peak in February. 20%+ decline through July. Bull market resumption.
In the chart above the composite projection is shown in orange, with seasonality displayed in the middle. The 18-month cycle in the bottom panel is due for a low between April and August; while this long cycle has wide dispersion, the best guess is that an initial low occurs in April with the final low in July.
I
found the three most similar cycles and displayed them in the chart above with a composite
line in pink. While this is a small sample size, it serves as a decent
reference point.
Reference:
See also: