The S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026, developed by Ned Davis Research, is a predictive model aggregating historical seasonal, presidential, and decennial cycles based on daily data from 1928 to 2024. The cycle composite projects an approximate +5.38% annual return. Major swings: Rise from January to mid-April. Drawdown into early-October. Recovery into year-end.
2026 S&P 500 Composite: Seasonal, Presidential, and Decennial Cycles.
■ Q1 (January-March): Robust early-year momentum with minor fluctuations, accumulating +3.8% by late March.
■ Q2 (April-June): Early peak followed by initial decline and volatility, with a net pullback of around -1.0%.
■ Q3 (July-September): Continued oscillations with a downward bias, losses of around -0.8%.
■ Q4 (October-December): Trough early in the quarter, then sharp rally to year-end; gains of about +3.4%.
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