S&P 500 November Seasonality in Midterm Election Years

 

Expect the S&P to rally from a late-October low into around Nov 11 (Wed), decline into
Nov 19–23 (Thu–Mon), then rebound into month-end. Direction matters more than level.

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for November 2026 (equal weight on One-Year Seasonal Cycle: 98 years; 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.)

► November ranks 5th of 12 by average across all years (avg. +1.0%). 

● In Midterm Election Years it ranks 2nd (avg. +2.2%). 
● In the years ending in 6 it ranks 4th (avg. +1.4%).

● November was up in 61 of 98 years (62.24%, avg. +1.0%, med. +1.6%). 

● Midterm Election Year November was up in 21 of 24 (87.50%, avg. +2.0%, med. +2.2%).

► Nov 16 (Mon) through Nov 20 (Fri), expiration week, was up in 49 of 98 years (50.00%). 

● Midterm Election Years: 10 of 24 were up (41.67%, avg. −0.3%, med. −0.3%). 

 Q4 2026 Midterm Election Year Stretch.

► Oct 27 (Tue), 2026 opens the Midterm Election Year stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), up in 20 of 24 Midterm Election Years (83.33%, avg. +2.3%, med. +3.1%). The misses were 1930, −11.2%; 1978, −2.7%; 1994, −1.6%; and 2002, −0.8%.

● Election day is Nov 3 (Tue). 
● The November piece, from the October close through Nov 10 (Tue), was up in 19 of 24 (79.17%, avg. +1.7%, med. +1.8%).

► Nov 26 (Thu) is Thanksgiving. The stock and bond markets are closed.

● From the session before through the Friday after, Nov 25 (Wed) to Nov 27 (Fri), was up in 72 of 97 years (74.23%, avg. +0.3%, med. +0.6%). The Friday was closed in 1929.

►  November through April the following year, from the October close to the April close, was up in 69 of 98 years (70.41%, avg. +5.2%, med. +5.4%).

S&P 500 Detrended Presidential Cycle 2025-2028.

Correlation with the S&P 500 since January 1, 2026: -0.62 

 

S&P 500 2026 Performance vs. Composite Cycle and Components — Midterm Election Year. 

 

Nasdaq.

 

Dow Jones.

 

Russell 2000.

 

See also:

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026.

TPR (2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds. 

Nicholas D. Savino (November 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for November 2026.

ES Coiled: Crabel Stack vs. October Surprise

ES is locked in a multi-bar contraction — NR7, NR4, 2BNR, 3BNR and a tied 4BNR — the tightest cluster of Crabel patterns in weeks, with price grinding inside a 29-point cage while the calendar keeps ticking. 

ES Crabel Pattern Analysis | October 13, 2026

 

Volatility has been compressed, not eliminated. Mid-October and the market is still waiting for the October surprise to pick a side and force the expansion the patterns have been setting up.

 

 

See also:

Toby Crabel Pattern Scanner. 

Larry Williams (October 13, 2026) - Is a Year-End Stock Market Rally Coming? 

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026. 

Larry Williams (2025) - How Markets Move: The Natural Cycle of Range Change.

Toby Crabel (1990) - The Principle of Contraction/Expansion.

Stacey Burke (2026) - Smart Money Concepts: An 80-Year History.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.

S&P 500 vs. Geomagnetic Ap Index and Kp Index

S&P 500 vs. Ap Index (May–Nov 2026).  Projected Ap Index Peaks (+4-Day Lag) = Expected S&P 500 Lows:

Oct 14 (Wed), Oct 17 (Sat), Oct 26 (Mon), Nov 4 (Wed), Nov 13 (Fri), Nov 22 (Sun).

The time it takes for a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to reach the Earth depends on several factors, such as the speed of the CME, the density of the solar wind, and the position of the Earth relative to the Sun. On average, a CME can take anywhere from about 15 hours to 6 days to reach the Earth: fast CMEs (speeds > 1000 km/s) 15 hours–2 days, average CMEs (speeds ~500–1000 km/s) 2–4 days, and slow CMEs (speeds < 500 km/s) 4–6 days.

Geomagnetic disturbances (elevated Ap index) are hypothesized to subtly impair collective mood and heighten risk aversion. Market participants may misattribute this psychological distress to economic fundamentals, leading elevated Ap to precede S&P 500 lows and trend reversals by a short lag of a few calendar days.

To evaluate this relationship, historical NOAA 45-day Ap forecasts (updated daily) were parsed into a continuous daily series using the most recent available issues. These values were correlated against daily S&P 500 close-to-close and absolute returns across 0 to +5 calendar-day lags from January 1, 2020, to present. Across the full sample, the 45-day forecast displays only modest directional correlation with next-day price movements; its primary statistical signal is a positive link to subsequent absolute returns (volatility), currently peaking around +4 to +5 days.

However, this optimal lag lacks long-term stability—holding near +4 days throughout the summer and early fall before shifting in recent windows—reflecting the limited predictive skill of multi-week geomagnetic forecasts. Comparative analysis shows that NOAA's 27-day Ap outlook provides neither stronger directional lead times nor greater stability than the 45-day series. Because the 27-day projection updates only weekly, its lower publication frequency introduces additional noise, making lead-lag relationships harder to measure than in the daily 45-day series.

The Ap Index (used in NOAA's 45- and 27-day forecasts) is the linear counterpart of the quasi-logarithmic Kp Index (used in NOAA's 3-day forecast). Each 3-hour Kp value converts to an equivalent amplitude via a fixed table (Kp 0→0, 1→3, 2→7, 3→15, 4→27, 5→48, 6→80, 7→140, 8→240, 9→400); the daily Ap is the average of those eight 3-hour values. The two indices therefore track the same geomagnetic activity on different scales.

 

NOAA's latest 3-day forecast above shows a peak Kp of 5 (equivalent Ap ≈ 48) on Tuesday, October 13, between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC (2:00–5:00 a.m. ET). Shifting that interval forward by three calendar days points to Friday, October 16; a four-day shift points to Saturday. This suggests another S&P 500 low may arrive by the end of the trading week.

To evaluate shorter-term dynamics, 180 days of NOAA 3-day Kp forecasts were compiled, converted to 3-hour equivalent Ap, adjusted to Eastern Time (ET), and exhaustively tested across lags of 0 to 120 hours against hourly S&P 500 closes to identify the shift with the strongest negative correlation to price level. The latest weekly charts above display hourly S&P 500 OHLC bars (left scale) overlaid with the 3-hour equivalent Ap series shifted forward by the optimal +45 hours on an inverted right scale. Each panel spans Saturday through the following Sunday to show the complete trading week in context.  

 

This optimal +45-hour lag differs from the +3 to +5 calendar-day lag observed on daily Ap charts because the NOAA 3-day forecast model (updated twice daily at 00:30 and 12:30 UTC; during EDT / UTC−4, this corresponds to 8:30 p.m. ET the previous day and 8:30 a.m. ET the same day) evaluates high-resolution, short-horizon Kp/Ap data against hourly prices over a shorter sample window, where forecast decay and short-term noise shift the best-fit alignment relative to multi-month realized daily Ap metrics.

 

See also:

TPR (2026) - S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting.

Jeffrey A. Hansen  (2026) - Physics-Based Forecasts of Investment Sentiment.

Jeffrey A. Hansen (October 2, 2026) - Physics-Based Forecasts: US Equities.

TPR - Sun and Markets.

My Forecast for the Rest of 2026 | Larry Williams

US equities face near-term downside pressure and range-bound volatility amid poor breadth. Deteriorating internals—seen in the divergence between a strong NASDAQ, moderately strong S&P 500, and weak Dow and Russell 2000—suggest capital is rotating from quality blue chips into speculation, a pattern that has historically preceded broader sell-offs.

A major synchronized cyclical low and buying opportunity across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, and Russell is projected around Tuesday, October 27, ahead of the US presidential election. At the trough, focus capital on the index showing the strongest relative strength and greatest resistance to selling pressure during the decline.

Reference:

Larry Williams (October 1, 2026) - My Forecast for the Rest of 2026. 

  

S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

Oct 27 (Tue) opens the midterm stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), 2026, up in 22 of 24

midterm years (91.67%, avg. +2.6%, med. +3.2%). Misses: 1930 (−12.6%) and 1994 (−0.3%).  

 DJIA.

Russell 2000. 

 

 NASDAQ.

Detrended seasonal cycles isolate short-term periodic signals by removing longer-term trends, preventing distortion and enabling precise measurement of amplitude and timing.

See also:

Larry Wiliams (December 23, 2025) - 2026 Market Forecast: Cycles, Risks, and Opportunities.

TPR (September 29, 2026) - S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

 Wayne Whaley (August 2, 2025) - 17-0 Turn-of-Year S&P 500 Setup with 7.1% Average Gain.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026. 

Why the Best Part of the Presidential Cycle Starts Now | Jeff Hirsch

On the Full Signal podcast from October 1, 2026, Jeff Hirsch spoke about historical market cycles, midterm positioning, structural AI drivers, and actionable portfolio strategies.

Presidential Cycle 2025–2028: Midterm Sweet Spot expected rally target window: 

September 30, 2026 – July 19, 2027.

 

Presidential Cycles & The Midterm Sweet Spot

Midterm election years historically rank as the presidential cycle's weakest due to early-term policy friction and political uncertainty that drive a Q2–Q3 soft patch. By early October, markets transition into the cycle's most bullish window: the "midterm sweet spot" running from Q4 through pre-election Q2. Since 1949, this three-quarter stretch averages gains of +19% for the Dow, +20% for the S&P 500, and +29–30% for the Nasdaq, with midterm Octobers frequently marking the exact pivot bottom.

The AI Super Boom & Market Fundamentals

This cyclical tailwind merges with a secular "AI super boom" comparable to post-war industrialization or the early internet era. Driven by massive hyperscaler capital expenditure and robust semiconductor earnings, this fundamental expansion supports high valuations into 2027 and overrides traditional cyclical drags. Historical super booms prove that staying invested through temporary volatility is essential when liquidity and structural drivers hold, despite short-term risks from extreme mega-cap tech concentration.

 

» October: Bear-Killer and Bargain Month. «

 

Macro Strategy: Yields, Politics & Small Caps

Near 5% bond yields increase equity opportunity costs, but strong AI earnings power and presidential cycle tailwinds dominate asset allocation. Hirsch is rotating from fixed income into lagging small caps, which offer relative value, broadening market participation into 2027, and seasonal drivers like the January Effect. Preferred sectors include transports, selective industrials, stabilizing financials, and core AI infrastructure, while post-midterm political gridlock adds market-friendly policy stability.

Technical Timing & Seasonality Execution

Rather than relying on strict calendar dates, seasonal strategies require technical filters. For the "Best Six Months" strategy (November–April for broad markets; extended through June for Nasdaq), a confirmed positive MACD crossover on major averages on or after early October triggers the buy signal, while negative April/June crossovers signal exits. Institutional tax cycles, calendar flows, and psychology maintain seasonal edges, but MACD confirmation prevents false starts.

Jeff Hirsch uses MACD crossovers as a technical filter to execute the "Best Six Months" strategy. By combining technical momentum with the calendar, he avoids buying into falling markets or exiting strong spring rallies prematurely.
► Timing Windows: The "Best Six Months" run Nov 1–Apr 30 for the Dow/S&P 500, extending through June for Nasdaq. Daily monitoring begins October 1 for buys and April 1 (June 1 for Nasdaq) for exits.   
► Indicator Setup: Daily charts with 12-day fast EMA, 26-day slow EMA, and a 9-day signal line.Buy Signal: On/after Oct 1, a positive MACD crossover (12-day EMA crosses above 26-day EMA) triggers the Seasonal Buy Signal, confirming downside momentum has ended before entering equities.
► Sell Signal: On/after Apr 1 (or Jun 1 for Nasdaq), a negative MACD crossover triggers the Seasonal Sell Signal, shifting exposure to cash or defensive sectors.
► Why It Works: It eliminates buying into October market crashes, captures extended spring upside, and reduces drawdowns compared to strict calendar dates or buy-and-hold strategies. 

Bearish Risks & Defensive Rules

Key risks to the base case include policy missteps, re-accelerating inflation, labor deterioration, geopolitical shocks, or an AI earnings reset. Shifting bearish entails tactical risk management—tightening stops and trimming laggards—rather than full liquidation, maintaining flexibility if macro trends or technicals break down.

 

See also:

TPR (September 29, 2026) - S&P 500 October Performance in Midterm Election Years.

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (September 29, 2026) - October's Volatility and the Historical Surge That Follows. 

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.

S&P 500 October Seasonality in Midterm Election Years

 

S&P 500 Cycle Composite for October 2026 (equal weight on One-Year Seasonal Cycle: 98 years; 

Four-Year Presidential Cycle — Midterm Year: 24 years; Decennial Cycle — years ending in 6: 9 years.)

► October ranks 8th of 12 by average across all years (avg. +0.6%). July is best (avg. +1.7%) and September is worst (avg. −1.1%). In midterm years it ranks 1st (avg. +2.4%) and September is worst (avg. −1.5%). In the nine years ending in 6 it ranks 3rd (avg. +2.1%). March is best (avg. +3.1%) and September is worst (avg. −1.5%).
► October was up in 58 of 98 years (59.18%, avg. +0.6%, med. +1.1%). In midterm years, 16 of 24 were up (66.67%, avg. +2.4%, med. +2.5%). From the September close through Oct 15 (Thu), all years were up in 63 of 98 (64.29%, avg. +0.7%, med. +1.3%). Midterm years were up in 17 of 24 (70.83%, avg. +2.1%, med. +2.1%).
► Oct 12 (Mon) is Columbus Day. The stock market is open. The bond market is closed. It is the first session of expiration week, up in 54 of 98 years (55.10%, avg. +0.1%, med. +0.1%). In midterm years, 14 of 24 were up (58.33%, avg. +0.2%, med. +0.3%).
► Oct 12 (Mon) through Oct 16 (Fri), expiration week, was up in 59 of 98 years (60.20%, avg. flat, med. +0.5%). The average is flat because a few weeks were large losses. In midterm years, 16 of 24 were up (66.67%, avg. +0.5%, med. +0.6%). Oct 16 (Fri), expiration day, was up in 47 of 98 years (47.96%, avg. −0.1%, med. flat). Midterm expiration days were up in 12 of 24 (50.00%, avg. +0.1%, med. +0.1%).
► Oct 27 (Tue) opens the midterm stretch that runs through Nov 10 (Tue), 2026, up in 22 of 24 midterm years (91.67%, avg. +2.6%, med. +3.2%). The misses were 1930, −12.6%, and 1994, −0.3%. 
► Election day is Nov 3 (Tue), 2026. Oct 27 (Tue) through Oct 30 (Fri) alone was up in 15 of 24 years (62.50%, avg. +0.6%, med. +0.6%).
► May through October, which this month closes, was up in 65 of 98 years (66.33%, avg. +2.5%, med. +3.6%). In midterm years, 12 of 24 were up (50.00%, avg. −0.6%, med. +2.1%). The average is down because a few of those years were large losses. The median year was up.
► Last quarter Oct 3 (Sat), 9:25 a.m. EDT. New moon Oct 10 (Sat), 11:50 a.m. EDT. First quarter Oct 18 (Sun), 12:13 p.m. EDT. Full moon Oct 26 (Mon), 12:12 a.m. EDT. No solstice and no eclipse this month.

Since January 1, 2026, One-Year Seasonality — All Years has shown the strongest correlation with the S&P 500

(Seasonal +0.89 · Composite +0.64 · Presidential −0.59 · Decennial +0.46). Seasonal is the closest match.

 

One-Year Seasonality — All Years. 

 

Since January 1, 2026, One-Year Seasonality — All Years has shown the strongest correlation with the S&P 500

(Seasonal +0.89 · Composite +0.64 · Presidential −0.59 · Decennial +0.46). Seasonal is the closest match.

 

S&P 500 2026 Performance vs. Composite Cycle and Components.

 

Presidential Cycle 2025–2028 and Midterm Election Year 2026 Sweet Spot:

The much talked about potential rise from September 30 (Wed), 2026 through July 19 (Mon), 2027.  

 

See also:

TPR (September 24, 2026) - Seasonality vs. Cycles: October is the Midterm Sweet Spot—If the Switch Holds.

Nicholas D. Savino (October 1, 2026) - S&P 500 Forecast for October 2026.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle: A Clock, Not a Crystal Ball

Derived mainly from M.A. Vukcevic's insights and solar-activity formula linking heliocentric Jupiter–Saturn sidereal orbits to model the sunspot cycle, the concept below uses a proprietary higher harmonics formula to project S&P 500 market swings.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2026.

Over 90% of tradeable, high-amplitude waves develop in the 7 to 12-day window. 

  

Jupiter's sidereal period is ≈11.86 years, Saturn's ≈29.46 years, their synodic period ≈19.86 years, and the Jupiter–Saturn spring-tide period ≈9.93 years. These tidal frequencies bracket the ~11-year Schwabe sunspot cycle, while the Vukcevic and Scafetta formulas treat Jupiter–Saturn orbital geometry as a pacemaker of the solar dynamo. With no consistent polarity or directional bias for the S&P 500, the blue Jupiter–Saturn curve inflects within a 1-to-11.9-day window (median 7.0 days, mean 6.3), and swings ≥7 days are bisected (blue squares) to optimize short-term correlation.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2026.

 

The Jupiter–Saturn curve is not a crystal ball and it will not say whether to buy or sell. It is a clock. Two slow planetary rhythms were folded into a single wavy line, then sped up so that what once took years now takes days. That line rises, falls, and bottoms out again and again.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2025.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2025.

Troughs hold the edge — ignoring the rest saves energy. Troughs are the only feature showing positive 
statistical skill (+3 points over random chance). Peaks and midpoints offer zero edge over a coin flip.

After matching it to years of S&P 500 prices, only one part of the clock is worth attention: the low points, the troughs. The test is blunt. Each blue mark is given three calendar days to sit near a real 2% swing in the daily highs and lows; the same test is then run on random dates, so the extra percentage is the only thing that counts as skill. Troughs clear that bar. Peaks do not. Midpoints, whether a swing is cut in half by time or by height, do not either.

 Troughs mark volatility, not directional certainty. Blue troughs lean slightly toward S&P swing lows (+3 points),
but cannot guarantee direction. Attempting to trade blue crests yields negative skill vs. baseline expectation.

 

Target multi-day windows over intraday precision. Maximum predictive edge (+3.3 to +3.4 points) centers on 2%–3%
swings over a 2 to 3-day window. Expecting immediate same-day triggers introduces unnecessary market noise.

 

Those extra three points are modest, and they still do not pick a side. The color of the line — up or down — does not mean the market will follow. A trough lining up with an S&P low beats chance by about three points; a trough lining up with an S&P high does not. A peak is no better at calling a high than a low. In other words, a trough can sit under a rally or a selloff. It is a date when a real swing is a little more likely to finish, not a forecast of direction.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2024.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2024.

 

Used that way, the method is simple. The next trough is read from the calendar, including Saturdays and Sundays; the formula does not pause for the weekend. 

 

Filter out the daily ripples to trade the 7–12 day cycle. Short cycles under 6 days represent market interference
with negligible height. Over 90% of meaningful amplitude occurs within the 7–12 day wave structure.

A short window opens around that date: two days before through three days after, which is the same band in which most of those 63% of hits actually land. If the trough falls on a weekend, the window runs from the Thursday before through the Wednesday after. Inside that window nothing is done until the S&P itself speaks. 

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2023.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2023.

 

The wait is for price to carve a high and then drop at least two percent from that high, using the day’s actual high and low, not the close — that may be treated as a short, with risk defined just above the high. Or the wait is for price to carve a low and then rise at least two percent from that low — that may be treated as a long, with risk defined just under the low. Only the first such reversal is taken. If the window closes and neither has happened, there was no trade. The little wrinkles on the blue line are skipped as well: if the fall into a trough was tiny, it is interference, not a beat, and it can be ignored.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2022.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2022.

The position is left when it has paid twice what was risked, or when price completes a two-percent swing the other way, or when the next serious trough arrives. Then the wait begins again. A signal will not appear every week, and that is the point. A good year of this habit is a handful of attempts, not a lifestyle. Three extra points versus picking dates at random is not a license to force a trade; costs, hesitation, and the occasional late swing that lands a week off the mark can wipe the edge out.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2021.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2021.

 

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H2 2020.

S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2020.

What is being practiced is attention, not prediction. The market still has to print the turn in the window, in its own highs and lows, or there is no trade. Used that way, the curve earns a place on the desk: a reminder to look up for a few days, then to look away until the next low. 

 

Jupiter–Saturn Cycle | H1 2027. 

 

See also:

Previous S&P 500 vs. Jupiter–Saturn Cycle examples [HERE].  

TPR (August 22, 2026) - S&P 500 vs. Ap Index: +3-Day Lag and Limits of Multi-Week Forecasting.