Showing posts with label 18.6-Year Cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 18.6-Year Cycle. Show all posts

Friday, September 4, 2026

S&P 500 vs. True & Mean Lunar Nodal Speed | September to December 2026

Financial markets correlate closely with the 4–14-day cycle of the True Lunar Node (North Node/Rahu) as it moves through its retrograde, stationary, and direct phases. This cycle is best illustrated by charting the True Lunar Nodal Speed against, for example, the S&P 500, where "speed" refers to the node's geocentric motion, measured in degrees of longitude per day.
 
Last station: Sep 04 (Fri) 03:57, Retrograde (Rx) → Direct. Next: Sep 07 (Mon) 03:12, local maximum
(+0.0190°/day), then Sep 09 (Wed) 15:18, Direct → Rx. True = Mean on Sep 13 (Sun) 07:35 ( EDT).
 
The True Node is predominantly retrograde, with a negative speed averaging −0.053°/day. It regularly slows, stations (speed = 0°/day), and briefly turns direct, reaching speeds of up to +0.0015°/day, before resuming its retrograde motion. These stationary periods are most pronounced and prolonged near eclipse seasons, which occur roughly every 173 days, when solar perturbations of the lunar orbit are strongest.

Around eclipses, the lunar nodes can shift rapidly between direct, retrograde, and near-
stationary motion, coinciding with sentiment extremes and elevated market volatility.

Expect potential short-term changes in trend when the True Lunar Nodal Speed (blue solid line in the charts above):

 changes direction, shifting from retrograde to direct and back (speed = 0°/day); or
reaches a maximum or minimum extreme
 equals Mean Nodal Speed 
 
Depending on the season, most True-Node speed swings last 7–8 days (69%).
 
Retrograde (Rx) → Direct repeats every ~13.5 days (6.7–15.8). 
 
Direct is a short poke (~3.6 d); retrograde is the body (~9.9 d); together they make the ~13.5-day station clock. 
 
2026 Q1 — Daily
 OHLC bars of the S&P 500 vs. True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed;
 annular solar eclipse Feb 17, total lunar eclipse Mar 03.
 
2026 Q1 — 4-hour OHLC S&P 500 vs. True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed. 
Blue wave is True Node speed on price scale; dashed blue is speed = 0 (direct above, retrograde below); red dashed is mean speed. Blue dates are stations/extrema in ET. Red vertical dates are True speed = Mean speed. Gold = solar, purple = lunar eclipse. 
 
 Q1 2026: True Lunar Nodal Speed at 0°/Day, at Extremes, and Equal to Mean Nodal Speed.
 
However, neither the daily nor the 4-hour chart follows the node. They may answer it, late or early by a bar or two on the 4-hour chart, and sometimes not at all. There hardly is any 1-to-1 correlation. What the speed curve is good for is identifying the hours when a crowd's appetite changes. A station (speed through 0°) is the useful alert: the True Node has stopped adding longitude or stopped subtracting it. That pause often appears as a change of character in the next one to three 4-hour bars—wider range, a failed break, or the first close that refuses the prior drift—rather than as a guaranteed reversal print at the exact minute.

Extrema serve a different purpose. A deep retrograde minimum represents a maximum rate of withdrawal; in Q1, the January 16 and January 30 lows, and in Q3, the July 12 and July 26 lows, fell within or just behind washout clusters already underway. The signal is not "buy the timestamp." It is "the selling has reached a dated climax window; now wait for the 4-hour structure to stop making lower lows after that window." The brief direct maxima are weaker. They last only a few days and often mark nothing more than a pause within an existing drift. Trading them as tops is therefore unreliable; in this sample, they more often mark a pause in the existing drift than a reversal of it.  
  
2026 Q2
— Daily OHLC S&P 500 vs. True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed.
 
2026 Q2 — 4-hour OHLC S&P 500 vs. True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed. 


 Q2 2026: True Lunar Nodal Speed at 0°/Day, at Extremes, and Equal to Mean Nodal Speed.
 
True nodal speed equal to mean speed is mostly a mid-wave event, not a turn. Red dates on these charts sit on the slope, not at the crest. Use them as confirmation that the osculating node has fallen back in step with the secular drift, which on the 4-hour chart tends to coincide with a continuation bar rather than a reversal. The April 2026 stretch is the clearest illustration of slope over event: from the April 4 minimum through the April 10–11 station and maximum, the 4-hour market rose with the wave. May 30 is the counterexample: a deep minimum against a market that only chopped at the highs. A minimum that does not meet a 4-hour breakdown is not a trade.

Delay is the practical rule. Weekend stations (e.g. March 21, May 30, June 14) spend their first reaction in Sunday–Monday futures and only then in the cash session; do not treat the Saturday timestamp as a Monday open. Intraday, the usable lag is one to six 4-hour bars. July 31 into August 2 is the best sequence in the file: station, then maximum, while the 4-hour S&P left the July hole and ran. September 4, 03:57 EDT, retrograde to direct, presents the opposite texture—an event at the local high, followed by a fade in the later bars of the same day. The same class of event, two market answers. The distinction is the 4-hour structure already in place when the node arrives.
 
 
2026 Q3 
— Daily OHLC S&P 500 vs. True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed;
total solar eclipse Aug 12, partial lunar eclipse Aug 28; last S&P 500 bar Sep 04.
 
2026 Q3 — 4-hour OHLC S&P 500 vs. True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed. 
 
  
Q3 2026: True Lunar Nodal Speed at 0°/Day, at Extremes, and Equal to Mean Nodal Speed.
  
Used as a short-term timing method, then: ignore lobes shorter than six days; treat the seven-to-eight-day swing as the holding window; take stations as tempo alerts and extrema as climax windows; and require the next 4-hour bar to confirm. 
 
2026 Q4 — Nov 09 16:45 is the deepest Rx of the year (−0.241°/day)—furthest from the mean.
 
 
 Q4 2026: True Lunar Nodal Speed at 0°/Day, at Extremes, and Equal to Mean Nodal Speed.
(Date and Time calculated for New York City, ET).
 
And, as always, what is being practiced here is attention and precision, not prediction: any market still has to print a reversal in its own highs and lows. Used this way, the inflection points and crossings in the True and Mean Lunar Nodal Speed curves may serve as a reminder to pay closer attention during the upcoming nodal events listed above. But for a short-term trader simply looking to make money in the markets, better to ignore them altogether and focus on market structure, price action, and risk management instead  (Williams, Unger, Huddleston, Burke).
 
See also: 

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Corn and Cotton: Long-Term Cycle Projections | Sergey Tarassov

Analysis of Corn and Cotton identifies a ~17.75-year cycle consistent with Edward R. Dewey's work, but also closely aligned with the 18.6-year Lunar Node cycle.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Corn through 2036.
 
Treated as an external and irregular cycle, projections built using the Lunar Node framework outperform standard spectral projections, highlighting the importance of adhering to method rules and analytical discipline.

The pink-shaded chart background marks the out-of-sample projection of Cotton through 2050.

In monthly Cotton prices, the commonly cited ~17.75-year cycle appears to be variable rather than fixed, evolving from roughly 17.4 years historically to about 19.3 years in recent data—closer to a 19–20 year Metonic-like rhythm. Modeling the cycle as dynamic and incorporating multiple overtones produces a more accurate representation of historical price movements than a simple fixed sine wave.

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Bradley Cowan’s Lunar Cycle Projection Methodology Applied to the S&P 500

One of Bradley F. Cowan's methodologies for identifying cycles in financial markets and projecting future turning points employs synodic lunar periods (the time it takes the Moon to align with the Sun relative to the Earth). 

Major low in the S&P 500 (SPY/ES) on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT (Hurst 20-week cycle low),
followed by one synodic lunar cycle projection (red arrow) extending to Wednesday, April 29 09:04. 
 
While the synodic lunar month averages 29.53058886 days (≈ 29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes, and 2.88 seconds), orbital eccentricity causes individual periods to vary from 29.26 to 29.80 days, a difference of up to 12 hours and 57 minutes. 
 
Synodic Lunar Periods for New York City in 2026 (EST/EDT). 
 
Cowan's technique anchors the start date and time of the synodic lunar cycle to a confirmed major market top or bottom, e.g. to the major low on Monday, March 30, 2026 at 20:20 EDT. Subsequent cycle projections are then generated at exact 360-degree intervals forward from that anchor to April 29 (Wed) 09:04, May 28 (Thu) 21:48, June 27 (Sat) 10:32, July 26 (Sun) 23:16, etc.
 
Anchored to the S&P's major low on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th harmonics
of one synodic lunar cycle generate the blue summation or composite projection line to April 29 (Wed) 09:04.
 
Anchored to the S&P's major low on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th harmonics of the
8.4-week cycle (2-lunar month or 59-day cycle) generate the blue composite projection line for April and May.
 
Anchored to the S&P's major low on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th harmonics of the
 17-week cycle (= Intermediate Term Delta cycle = 4-lunar month or 118-day cycle = one third of the lunar year)
generate the blue composite projection line to July 26 (Sun) 23:16The June 18 high should
be lower than the May 8 high, and the July 26 low should be lower than the March 30 low.
 
Bradley Cowan's synodic lunar cycle projections in stocks.
 
In his books "Four Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles" (1993) and "Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory" (2009), Cowan further elaborates on this "anchored" lunar and planetary cycle projection methodology. However, unlike the highs and lows shown in the blue composite projection lines in the charts above, Cowan's methodology utilizes 45-degree synodic lunar cycle offsets (= 8th harmonic ≈ 3.6913 calendar days or 3 days, 16 hours, 35 minutes, and 28.3 seconds = April 03 (Fri) 12:55, April 07 (Tue) 05:31, April 10 (Fri) 22:06, etc.) to project potential turning points only rather than specific highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, and lower highs and lower lows. 
 
Sidereal lunar cycle projections.
 
In 2021, a certain Mario of "4X Other Way" presented anchored projections of future turning points using the 27.321661-day sidereal lunar period (≈ 27 days, 7 hours, 43 minutes, and 11.5 seconds; the time it takes the Moon to orbit the Earth relative to the distant 'fixed' stellar background; to fixed stars such as Aldebaran, Altair, Deneb, Rigel, or Sirius). Now, should the lunar cycle be synodic or sidereal? Both cannot be simultaneously correct or exact—at best, only one of them works.
 
» Usually there will be an eclipse near the same degree of the zodiac once every 19 years [...] In this cycle the Sun makes a complete circuit of the sky and reaches the same Node at the same place on the ecliptic. This length of time is 6,585.32 solar days, which is 48 years and 11.33 days. The shortest time required for the Sun to travel from and return to the same node is 346.6 solar days, an interval known as an Eclipse Year. [...]  Nineteen of the eclipse years contain 6,585.4 days, which is precisely 223 synodic months. This is when the Nodes themselves become important in the predictions on the stock market. «

Tom McClellan observes that the 2026 price structure closely mirrors 2025, with the tightest alignment achieved by shifting the data 343 days to synchronize even minor fluctuations. This offset approximates the above mentioned Eclipse Year (346.62 days)—the interval required for the Sun to return to the same lunar node (the intersection of the Moon's orbit with the ecliptic). Because this draconic cycle is shorter than the solar year, it governs eclipse seasons, which recur about every 173 days and drift earlier each calendar year. The cycle is driven by the westward precession of the Moon’s orbital nodes, completing a full rotation roughly every 18.6 years and thereby defining the 346.62-day periodicity. However, intermediate- and longer-term analogs are generally unstable and break down at some point. If Tom McClellan’s "Stock Market Matching the Year Ago" analog continues to hold, it implies a sustained bullish trend into the summer of 2026. This conflicts not only with intermediate-term cycles but with typical seasonal weakness from May to October—especially in a presidential cycle’s second year. 
See also:

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Different Projection Techniques for the S&P 500 Transitioning into Q2

 S&P 500 (daily bars) - Elliott Wave projection with a final retracement into the end of March, 
followed by a decline into mid-May, below the August 2024 low.

S&P 500 is ready for the next, and final leg up. With price confirming a bullish WXY model at Friday's 5,603 low, I am expecting one more leg up under the 2nd wave targeting 5,750-5,825 to set up for the ultra bearish 3/4/5 wave sequence.

S&P 500 (3-day bars) - Elliott Wave count projecting a decline into late Q1 2026, 
below the October 2023 low.
 
The 16-year rally ended at the 6,147 high with a bearish ending diagonal formation. We're now in the early stages of a catastrophic decline, and price is expected to break this 6-month range escalating much lower. Although I mirrored the path of the 2007-09 crash, this week's rally could easily be the last chance to sell before a 40-60% decline. 


Ref
erence:
Trigger Trades, March 22 & 23, 2025.
 
 
 
2025 Roadmap for the S&P 500 based on Spectrum Cycle Analysis,
with the ideal Q1 low being March 28, 2025, which will set up the final leg up. 
 
S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.
 
 

 80 Day Low in mid March, and 20 Week Low in mid May.
 
S&P 500 Index (daily bars) vs 56 Year Cycle.

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

2025 Outlook on S&P 500, Cryptos, Currencies, Metals & Energy │ Namzes

In 2025, the S&P 500 is expected to head toward a multi-year major market top. The overall structure of the S&P 500 is forecasted to rise until mid-January, followed by a correction of more than 10% into late February or mid-to-late March, and then a melt-up into a major top in mid-July or late-August. This will be followed by an approximately 17% drop into late October that will trigger a bear market.

 
S&P 500 projection for 2025 (timing, not magnitude) with seasonally strong windows in the bottom panel.

The S&P 500 is projected to rise until around January 17, reaching approximately 6,250, then experience a 10%+ correction by the end of Q1, targeting around 5,600. Key buy points are expected around February 26 and in the second half of March, with the ideal date being March 28, which will set up the final leg up. A minor buy point is likely around June 27. 
 

The major top is anticipated around July 17, with the possibility of a lower high or a double top/divergent high by August 22, with a minimum target of 6,500 and an upside target of approximately 7,000. After this, the market is expected to drop into a low around October 27, aligning with seasonal and nested cycle lows, followed by a bounce that ultimately fails. The S&P 500 is expected to end the year in the red, setting up for a challenging 2026, with a year-end target of 5,650.
 
In 2025 we face a conflict between the Decennial Cycle (years ending in "5"), which is typically the best year, and other cycles that suggest the market will peak in 2025. I will provide commentary on each cycle, starting with the 3.5-Year Kitchin Cycle (41-Month Cycle)
 
1.) The current Kitchin Cycle began in October 2022 (when we accurately called the bear market low), and 2025 will be year 3, which usually marks the peak. After that, the market is expected to decline into late 2026, which aligns with the ideal low of the next 3.5-year cycle. 
 
 2025 will be year 3 of the 3.5-year Kitchin cycle.

2.) Looking at the 4-Year Presidential Cycle, 2025 (the first year) is expected to follow a pattern of a spring dip, a summer rally, and a fall crash. I believe this is the key setup for next year, followed by the second year (2026), which is typically the weakest in the 4-Year Cycle. 
 
3.) The longer 18.6-Year Cycle is entering its peaking window in 2025, or possibly 2026. We are entering year 17 of the cycle, so we should begin watching for signs of a top, such as a marquee event like the SpaceX IPO. Market tops are a process, but we should start looking for indicators like weakening economic data, deteriorating market breadth, and earnings rolling over.
 
 The 18.6-Year Cycle is peaking in 2025, or possibly 2026.
 
4.) The Decennial Cycle shows that years ending in "5" are typically the most bullish in the 10-Year Cycle and rarely have negative returns. However, I believe we may have pulled some of the gains from 2025 into 2024 (since year 4 usually experiences sideways consolidation, setting up a blow-off top in 2025). Given the strength of the Decennial Cycle, we must be mindful that the fall of 2025 could be stronger than I currently anticipate. The average seasonality for year 5 is shown in the second chart.
 
 Years ending in "5" are typically the most bullish in the 10-Year Cycle.
 
 A close-up of the typical Year 5 seasonality.

5.)
I analyzed the years within the 4-year cycle pattern and identified the 11 most similar years, based on a high correlation score and comparable structure. From this analysis, I created a composite historical projection, shown in green. I’ve also included the composite 4-year cycle for reference, and you can see that the best-matching years closely follow the typical 4-year path.
 
The green composite line represents a historical projection based on 
the 11 most similar years within the 4-year cycle pattern.

6.) The 5-Year Liquidity Cycle, proxied by the M2 year-over-year (YoY) change, is expected to peak in the second half of 2025 and then decline until late 2028 or early 2029. The Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) is nearly drained, and while the Treasury General Account (TGA) could provide a temporary boost if it’s spent down, the Fed will soon halt Quantitative Tightening (QT). However, other central banks can't ease much due to the strong U.S. dollar. Maintaining historically overvalued equities will require a significant liquidity injection.
 
 Maintaining historically overvalued equities will require a significant liquidity injection.

The ideal bottom of the 5.3-year inflation cycle falls around the end of 2025. It largely depends on oil, which should begin its multi-quarter run sometime in 2025:
 
 The bottom of the ideal 5.3-year inflation cycle falls around the end of 2025.

7.) On the macro front, GDP growth is expected to peak in mid to late 2025, with rising unemployment signaling a recession in early 2026 or late 2025. The 5-year liquidity cycle is expected to peak around mid-2025 and roll over, which will create challenges for overpriced equities and crypto. The Fed’s actions regarding liquidity will be crucial, particularly if it continues supporting asset prices without real economic justification. 
 
 GDP peaking phase around mid to late 2025.

Bitcoin will experience a deep retest into a March 2025 low, followed by one more run at the 2024 highs in early summer, after which crypto will enter a multi-year bear market. In my opinion, there is a high probability that the next 4-year cycle (2026+) will be left-translated, with Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR) being liquidated and the Tether-fraud (USDT) likely exposed. Meanwhile, almost all altcoins will lose 99-100%. It is currently unclear whether Bitcoin will act more as a NASDAQ proxy or a monetary hedge in the years ahead. Many altcoins may have already peaked for the cycle, but some, like Ethereum (ETH), still have more upside.
 
The Dollar is likely to remain in an uptrend into 2025-26. There is a potential pullback early in the year, helping risk assets push higher, followed by a rally into spring (and a subsequent sell-off in risk assets). Then, a big correction in the USD is expected into the July-August low, which should coincide with the stock market top.
 
In the Euro, an 18-month cycle low is due and will likely occur around March 2025. The subsequent 18-month cycle is likely to be left-translated, with a drop into the 2026 four-year cycle low, targeting below parity with the dollar.
 
 EUR going to crash into 2026 low.

The Yen is expected to begin a multi-year uptrend, leading to trillions in capital flowing back to Japan in the years ahead.
 
 » ¥ strength leading to repatriation or repatriation leading to strong ¥? «
 
Bonds remain in a secular bear market, so any rally in bonds will be cyclical (driven by a growth scare or recession), followed by a significant rally in rates. A potential counter-rally in bonds is expected in Q1 2025, but it is likely to fail. The technical target for TNX is 5.5%.

Given that 2022 was the 8-year cycle low in Gold, we now have a bullish intermediate and long-term bias. There is a potential low in the spring around the 2,400 support, followed by a push higher towards 2,800–3,000+ into 2026. Central banks won’t stop buying as the war cycle and geopolitical tensions intensify, while governments debase currencies.
 
 Gold upward bias from Q2 2025 onwards.
 
Silver is expected to reach 38.00 within the next 6 quarters.

All energy should be in an uptrend over the next 6-8 quarters, with Natural Gas likely leading (reaching a new all-time high in 2026).  
 
 
The next best entry opportunity in Natural Gas is likely to occur
at the end of January to early February 2025, with a confluence of
the 100-day cycle low and the seasonal low. The above is composite
cycle chart from December 3, 2024 for reference.
 
The 3.5-YearCrude Oil cycle (left chart) is starting with long consolidation. 
Leading indicators (second chart) pointing to expansion move due in 2025-26. 
 
Crude Oil is expected to reach the 80 in the spring of 2025, then 100, and 150 by 2026. 
 
» Energy will outperform after big tech tops. «   

My Crude Oil leading indicators and cycles suggest a big move in the next 2 years, but the exact timing of the expansion is hard to pinpoint, potentially around the end of 2025 into 2026. [see also HERE]. Uranium is likely to return to 100+ in 2025, and Coal should also see gains.