SPX vs Composite Cycle | April - December 2016

Calculated and charted with Timing Solution.

Juglar Investment Cycle and Kitchin Business Cycle vs. DJIA

UBS created an interesting chart using the Juglar cycle, the Kitchin cycle, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Kitchin cycle is business cycle of roughly 3 to 4 years (about 40 months), first described by Joseph Kitchin in a 1923 paper. He identified it from analysis of price, interest rate, and industrial output data, attributing the fluctuations to lags in information and inventory adjustments. The Juglar cycle is a fixed-investment cycle lasting about 7 to 11 years, first identified by Clément Juglar in his 1862 work "Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis." It is often considered the classical business cycle, reflecting waves of capital investment and credit expansion/contraction.