Bradley Cowan’s Lunar Cycle Projection Methodology Applied to the S&P 500

One of Bradley F. Cowan's methodologies for identifying cycles in financial markets and projecting future turning points employs synodic lunar periods (the time it takes the Moon to align with the Sun relative to the Earth). 

Major low in the S&P 500 (SPY/ES) on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT (Hurst 20-week cycle low),

followed by one synodic lunar cycle projection (red arrow) extending to Wednesday, April 29 09:04. 

 

While the synodic lunar month averages 29.53058886 days (≈ 29 days, 12 hours, 44 minutes, and 2.88 seconds), orbital eccentricity causes individual periods to vary from 29.26 to 29.80 days, a difference of up to 12 hours and 57 minutes. 

 

Synodic Lunar Periods for New York City in 2026 (EST/EDT). 

 

Cowan's technique anchors the start date and time of the synodic lunar cycle to a confirmed major market top or bottom, e.g. to the major low on Monday, March 30, 2026 at 20:20 EDT. Subsequent cycle projections are then generated at exact 360-degree intervals forward from that anchor to April 29 (Wed) 09:04, May 28 (Thu) 21:48, June 27 (Sat) 10:32, July 26 (Sun) 23:16, etc.

 

Anchored to the S&P's major low on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th harmonics

of one synodic lunar cycle generate the blue summation or composite projection line to April 29 (Wed) 09:04.

 

Anchored to the S&P's major low on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th harmonics of the

8.4-week cycle (2-lunar month or 59-day cycle) generate the blue composite projection line for April and May.

 

Anchored to the S&P's major low on Monday, March 30 at 20:20 EDT, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th harmonics of the

 17-week cycle (= Intermediate Term Delta cycle = 4-lunar month or 118-day cycle = one third of the lunar year)

generate the blue composite projection line to July 26 (Sun) 23:16. The June 18 high should

be lower than the May 8 high, and the July 26 low should be lower than the March 30 low.

 

Bradley Cowan's synodic lunar cycle projections in stocks.

 

In his books "Four Dimensional Stock Market Structures and Cycles" (1993) and "Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory" (2009), Cowan further elaborates on this "anchored" lunar and planetary cycle projection methodology. However, unlike the highs and lows shown in the blue composite projection lines in the charts above, Cowan's methodology utilizes 45-degree synodic lunar cycle offsets (= 8th harmonic ≈ 3.6913 calendar days or 3 days, 16 hours, 35 minutes, and 28.3 seconds = April 03 (Fri) 12:55, April 07 (Tue) 05:31, April 10 (Fri) 22:06, etc.) to project potential turning points only rather than specific highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows, and lower highs and lower lows. 

 

Sidereal lunar cycle projections.

 

In 2021, a certain Mario of "4X Other Way" presented anchored projections of future turning points using the 27.321661-day sidereal lunar period (≈ 27 days, 7 hours, 43 minutes, and 11.5 seconds; the time it takes the Moon to orbit the Earth relative to the distant 'fixed' stellar background; to fixed stars such as Aldebaran, Altair, Deneb, Rigel, or Sirius). Now, should the lunar cycle be synodic or sidereal? Both cannot be simultaneously correct or exact—at best, only one of them works.

 

Reference:
Stock Market Geometry (2022) - Bradley Cowan's Lunar Cycle in Stocks. (video)

» Usually there will be an eclipse near the same degree of the zodiac once every 19 years [...] In this cycle the Sun makes a complete circuit of the sky and reaches the same Node at the same place on the ecliptic. This length of time is 6,585.32 solar days, which is 48 years and 11.33 days. The shortest time required for the Sun to travel from and return to the same node is 346.6 solar days, an interval known as an Eclipse Year. [...]  Nineteen of the eclipse years contain 6,585.4 days, which is precisely 223 synodic months. This is when the Nodes themselves become important in the predictions on the stock market. «

The Sun and the Moon, Jack Gillen, 1979.

Tom McClellan observes that the 2026 price structure closely mirrors 2025, with the tightest alignment achieved by shifting the data 343 days to synchronize even minor fluctuations. This offset approximates the above mentioned Eclipse Year (346.62 days)—the interval required for the Sun to return to the same lunar node (the intersection of the Moon's orbit with the ecliptic). Because this draconic cycle is shorter than the solar year, it governs eclipse seasons, which recur about every 173 days and drift earlier each calendar year. The cycle is driven by the westward precession of the Moon’s orbital nodes, completing a full rotation roughly every 18.6 years and thereby defining the 346.62-day periodicity. However, intermediate- and longer-term analogs are generally unstable and break down at some point. If Tom McClellan’s "Stock Market Matching the Year Ago" analog continues to hold, it implies a sustained bullish trend into the summer of 2026. This conflicts not only with intermediate-term cycles but with typical seasonal weakness from May to October—especially in a presidential cycle’s second year. 

See also:

Jack Gillen (2002) - Moon-Stats (2026 to 2034). 

Louise McWhirter (1938) - S&P 500 Short-Term Forecasting Methodology. 

TPR (2015) - The S&P 500 versus the Moon and Planets Transiting 14° Cancer. 

TPR (2012) - The Delta Phenomenon.

J.M. Hurst’s "Principle of Commonality": One Divine Force | Ahmed Farghaly

The "Cyclic Principles" introduced by J.M. Hurst in the 1970s are universal, persisting since the dawn of time. Among these, the "Principle of Commonality" stands out, as it demonstrates that the cycles of disparate financial instruments—and, by extension, human activity—are synchronized by a singular, overarching divine force. Troughs of unrelated instruments occur almost simultaneously, while divergences in peaks or amplitudes stem from local or company-specific factors rather than the underlying rhythm.

» The Principle of Commonality assures us that identical specific and forecastable wave processes occur in all negotiable equities of all types on all markets of the world. So all-pervasive is this Principle that it is only the Principle of Variation that prevents the shape of price histories of all equities from being nearly identical. And, as we have seen, it is the interaction of fundamental events and situations with cyclicality, causing wave amplitude change, that is responsible for the Principle of Variation. 

» A Commonality Phasing Model is, in effect, a large measuring strip used to preserve wave phase and period information from the analysis of two or more equities. Only the most certain of the wave trough locations are used from any given analysis. As results are added from analysis of more and more equities, gaps are filled in and a commonality distribution range is established for each wave trough position in time. A commonality phasing model can be maintained continuously, thus recording the most definitive evidence of wave phase and period from all analyses conducted. «

The Principle of Commonality, J.M. Hurst, 1973. 

Hurst emphasized its practical value: understanding one cycle illuminates others, with minor deviations—his third type of the Principle of Variation [each market’s active cycles deviate from the nominal model’s average periods, and these deviations differ across instruments and times]—leaving global synchronization intact as dictated by the Principle of Commonality. Empirical studies across unrelated assets, commodities, equities, and economic time series confirm that the Principle of Commonality governs beyond any single economy, reflecting a universal rhythm and mirroring humanity’s progression from polytheism toward recognition of a monotheistic, single guiding influence.

 

“And your God is one God. There is no deity except Him, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.”
The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-Baqarah (The Cow), 2:163.

  

The persistence of cyclical waves through recorded history suggests that Commonality is trans-historical. Data since around 1000 AD reveal continuous alignment, and extrapolation indicates these forces existed long before formal record-keeping. Historical observation supports this: human advancement in the Stone and Bronze Ages unfolded in temporal synchrony across disconnected populations, indicating the operation of the consistent underlying divine force.

 

“For every nation is an appointed term; when their term is reached,

neither can they delay it nor can they advance it an hour or a moment.” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah Al-A‘rāf (The Heights), 7:34. 

 

While troughs—the beginnings and endings of cycles—are closely aligned across nations, local expression varies. Peaks may occur at different times, amplitudes differ, and local fundamentals shape trajectories. The Principle of Commonality thus governs temporal alignment of critical points while allowing variation in the wave’s characteristics.
 

Chart 1: Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul; magenta) versus Dow Jones (DJIA) from 2000 to 2025.

Empirical evidence validates these assertions. The Kuznets Swing (an 18-year cycle) peaked in 2006 in Saudi Arabia and in 2019 in the United States, yet both began in March 2003 and bottomed in the global low of March 2020. Minor discrepancies among sub-waves reflect local variation but do not disrupt the synchronization of primary troughs (see chart 1 above).

 

 Chart 2.1: Commodity Price Index and S&P 500, both from 1800 to 2025.

 

Chart 2.2: S&P 500 (red) versus Commodity Price Index from 1800 to 2025.

Longer-term studies, including continuous commodity prices and the S&P 500 since 1800, show that over 90 percent of cyclical troughs align temporally across instruments (see charts 2.1 and 2.2 above). 

Chart 3: Soybeans (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 2011 to 2025.

Chart 4: German Dax (yellow) versus the Saudi Stock Exchange Index (Tadawul) from 1994 to 2003.

Even unrelated markets, such as soybean prices and the Saudi stock index (Tadawul), demonstrate strong temporal correspondence (chart 3 above). Comparisons of the German DAX and Saudi index (chart 4 above) reveal synchronization across multiple cyclic levels—the 18-month, 54-month (Kitchin), and 9-year (Juglar) waves—further confirming a unifying global force.

 

 Prophet Daniel (Daniyal) in the Lions' Den (Daniel 6:16–23, KJV).

“And all the inhabitants of the earth are reputed as nothing: and He doeth according to His will

in the army of heaven, and among the inhabitants of the earth: and none can stay His hand,

or say unto Him, What doest Thou?” The Holy Bible, Daniel 4:35 (KJV). 

 

Hurst’s Principle of Commonality thus affirms a single, synchronized force governing the timing of major and minor cycles, while local factors shape amplitude and peak positions. This robust alignment, persistent across centuries and diverse instruments, confirms that cyclical patterns are not random but manifestations of an underlying order.

“Is He not best who begins creation and then repeats it, and who provides for you from the heaven

and the earth? Is there a deity with Allah? Say, ‘Produce your proof, if you should be truthful.’” 

The Holy Qur’an, Surah An-Naml (The Ants), 27:64.

 

Today, we can confidently state that in this article we have presented our proof of a mysterious, dominant, and single force behind almost all fluctuations in human affairs. We can only ask God to grant us wisdom to recognize His design and join us with the righteous after we fulfill our appointed term in harmony with His will.

 

Reference:
Ahmed Farghaly (October 24, 2025) - The Principle of Commonality: The Single Underlying Force of God.

 

See also:
J.M. Hurst (1973) - Cycles Course - Cyclitec Services Training Course.

 Ernest Emery Richards (2017) - The Geometry of Infinite Mind and Living Systems.

Loai M. Dabbour (2012) - Harmony of Being: Geometry in Man, Nature, and Cosmos.  

Joachim-Ernst Berendt (1987) - The "Law of the Octave": The World Is Sound. 

Plato (360 BCE) - The Same, The Other, and The Essence: Theology of Arithmetic. 
Ahmed Farghaly (October 18, 2025) - Long-Term Commodity Cycles: Unraveling the Big Picture.

The Five Stages of the Revolutionary Cycle | Martin Armstrong

Governments fall when the police no longer offer them protection. [...] The Revolutionary Cycle takes place in five stages:

Stage 1: Whistleblower Disagreements; Discontentment Grows
Stage 2: Initial Conflict Begins; Economy Begins to Decline
Stage 3: Civil Unrest Peaks
Stage 4: Revolution
Stage 5: Recovery

The FIRST STAGE in a revolution is always the rise of intellectual whistleblower disagreement, which the government simply ignores as a passing phase. This stage is the realization of corruption and injustice of governmental rule. Perhaps the symbolization of this was the revelation of Edward Snowden [2013 – present] that the government was violating the constitution and abusing its power against the people, constructing a 100% surveillance state [...]

 » The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers. «

The SECOND STAGE is where the intellectual debates prove pointless, and the initial conflict begins. This corruption has run its course, and governments have transformed justice into their own self-interest. This stage is usually accelerated by governments raising taxes in the midst of an economic decline. [...] This is when history will typically produce some leader who can be a moderate who sees the problem and will often try to reason in order to reach a resolution that is ignored by the government. This further intensifies the feelings of injustice, especially in light of the economic decline. [...]

The THIRD STAGE is where it often becomes an outright war in the streets as governments seek to retain power and refuse to see the error of their ways. [...]

 2024 - 2026

The FOURTH STAGE is retribution in a domestic revolution in direct confrontation with the government and head of state. [...] The former head of state is often publicly killed, and typically all their ministers.  [...]

 » Hang everyone. That's the only solution. «
Washington D.C. – May 31, 2024

The FIFTH STAGE is typically the recovery stage, where a new form of government emerges from the ashes. [...] During this recovery stage, the radicals are usually overthrown, and sometimes, a new head of state emerges, such as Napoleon or Oliver Cromwell. [...] Divisions emerge once again between opposing political views. At this point, there is the restoration of a sense of nationalism, but the cycle of corruption slowly begins to take root. 

 

We [the USA] are currently in the SECOND STAGE of the Revolutionary Cycle and rapidly heading toward STAGE THREE as discontent grows.
 

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 6, 2024) - Police Officers Wanted – The Revolutionary Cycle in Swing.

 

The end is nigh, draw or mate? – June 6, 2024

 

See also:

L. David Linsky (October 24, 2023) - War and Regime Change soon in the US.

Martin Armstrong (May 8, 2024) - It is unlikely that we can avoid a Third World War.

Rachel Kleinfeld (February 22, 2023) - US secession is a great idea — for Russia.

 Serge Bernard (2016) - From Conquest to Affluence to Collapse: The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle.

John Bagot Glubb (1978) - The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival.  

Alexander Chizhevsky (1924) - Physical Factors of the Historical Process.

The Sixth Wave and 2032.95 | Martin Armstrong

Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined.

 Martin Armstrong's Fractal Design of Time.

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.95. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, too, this is a wave where the government will fight very hard to hold control, for that is the dominant 309.6 character, while the final wave on the next fractal level is a Private Wave of 51.6 years. This is the people fighting back as they lose confidence in the government. The two forces are at war right now. The worse the environment becomes for the people, the more authoritarian governments will become. Each wave of 8.6 also alters back and forth between Public and Private.

This is why I warn it is time to try to reduce the amplitude by waking up. We achieved this briefly with the Age of Enlightenment. Government then fought back and reclaimed control. We replaced monarchy with ministers. Nothing changed otherwise. We will fight the good fight once again and seek to triumph with a new age of Enlightenment. Will we win? Who knows. But we have to try. What comes after 2032 is a private wave – the opportunity to reclaim our liberty once again. Here is that chart.

 

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. The people have no right to vote on critical issues.  

Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

The last Sixth Wave marked the peak of the Roman Empire. Every historian has drawn the line to mark the beginning of the Fall of Rome took place with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Talk about almost getting to a new age, he sent an ambassador to China. This has been revealed by books from the Tang Dynasty. The East and West knew each other. Merchants ran the trade routes. This would have been the beginning of a major global economy back in 180 AD. Marcus’ death ended the golden age and expansion of the world economy. He was followed by his crazy son, Commodus. With the death of Commodus, the Praetorian Guard actually auctioned off the position of emperor to the highest bidder. Since he was just nuts, they got to rule Rome, and it went to the heads, to the point that corruption was in the open.

 

» Our idea of managing our political-social-economy. «

I have told the story of how I used to meet with people who wanted to run for President at the behest of those in the Republican Party. Then in 1999, I was asked to fly down to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr. I was told that this was different. They had me meet with various potential candidates to vet them out and give my opinion if they could handle the job from understanding the global economy. So what was different with Bush, Jr., was the fact they told me he was “stupid.” I was shocked. I asked why would you want to make someone stupid president? I was told he had the “name.” That is when they asked me to be the chief economist in the White House. I declined, for our business was way too global for that. They told me the plan was to surround him with good people. That is how Cheney took the role of President and moved his office in the White House.

 » The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed 

work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. «

I have been told similar traits with Obama. He was told they would let him play with the social stuff but leave everything else to them. The bureaucracy tasted power under Bush, and they were not about to let that go. Obama missed more than 60% of his daily security briefings. Biden is, at best, a part-time president who no one believes is truly running the nation because he simply is not mentally capable of doing so. This is the Praetorian Guard running the world.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 4, 2024) - The Major Fractal Wave of the Economic Confidence Model & 2032.95.

 

» By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. «

Happy Pi Day | Martin A. Armstrong

Perhaps it was my fate or destiny since I grew up in Maple Shade, New Jersey, with the house address of 314 South Lippincott Avenue. What a coincidence.

 

 
When I discovered that list of international panics and divided simply 26 into 224 years, it came out with 8.6153. Multiply that by 365 days = 3,144. Suddenly, the accuracy of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) made sense – it was Pi, the magic number that the Egyptians even used to build the Pyramids.

 

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armtrong (Mar 14, 2024) - Happy Pi Day.

 

See also:

Martin A. Armstrong (2015) - The Fractal Design of Time.

 

  2024.350  =  2024 May 07 (Tue)  =  Major High

 [The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.]

Quarterly Theory - London and New York AM & PM Setups | Darya Filipenka

 

A 90 minute cycle either plays out as an AMD-X or as a X-AMD pattern:

A = Accumulation/Consolidation (required for a cycle to occur)
M = Manipulation/Expansion
D = Distribution/Expansion
X = Reversal or Continuation

 

Q1 dictates Q2, Q3 and Q4.

If Q1 accumulates (A), Q2 expands (M).

If Q2 accumulates (A), Q4 expands (D).
If Q1 expands, Q2 accumulates, Q3 expands and Q4 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Q2 expands, Q3 accumulates.
If Asia expands, skip London, trade NY and skip the PM session.
If Asia consolidates, trade London, skip NY, then trade the PM Session.
London is more prone to make the high/low of the day whenever Asia consolidates. 

Anticipate price to run the high if you are bearish or the low if you are bullish.
Tuesday is more prone to make the high/low of the week whenever Monday consolidates.
Best trading days will have consolidation during the Asian Session. 

 

 Quarterly Phase Transitions and Trading Session Strategies.

 

Possible Quarterly Phase Transitions:

• Accumulation → Expansion: The initial phase A often begins with Accumulation, where price movement remains within a narrow range. This will transition into an expansion phase M.
• Expansion → Retracement or Reversal: Within the expansion phase, the market can either experience a retracement, where prices pull back temporarily before continuing in the same direction, or a reversal, where the trend changes direction entirely.
• Retracement → Expansion or Reversal: A retracement, which involves a temporary pullback in prices, can be followed by either an expansion phase or a reversal, depending on how traders react to the retracement.
• Reversal → Expansion or Retracement: Following a reversal, where the trend direction changes, the market can enter either an expansion phase or a retracement, as traders adapt to the new direction.
• Expansion → Retracement → Another Leg Up/Down: After an expansion phase, a retracement may occur, followed by another price movement in the same direction, often resulting in another leg up or down in the overall trend.
• Expansion → Reversal: In the expansion phase, a trend reversal can occur, leading to a shift in price direction.

 

Impossible Quarterly Phase Transitions:

• Accumulation → Reversal: A direct transition from Accumulation to reversal is not likely, as Accumulation represents a phase of price stabilization, whereas reversal involves a significant change in trend direction.
• Accumulation → Retracement: Similarly, a direct transition from Accumulation to retracement is unlikely, as Accumulation involves a range-bound price movement, while retracement implies a temporary pullback in an existing trend.
• Accumulation → Expansion → Accumulation: After an expansion phase, transitioning directly back into another Accumulation is not a common occurrence. The expansion phase typically leads to further price movement or potential retracement/reversal.
• Retracement → Reversal: Transitioning directly from a retracement to a reversal without an intermediate expansion phase is improbable, as retracement represents a temporary pause within a trend, whereas reversal involves a fundamental shift in trend direction.

  

Reference:

 Darya Filipenka a.k.a. LumiTraders (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

Daye (2023) - The Quarterly Theory.

Funded Teacher (Jan 15, 2024) - Quarterly Theory. (video)

Richard D. Wyckoff (1931) - The Wyckoff Method of Trading in Stocks.