The Sixth Wave and 2032.95 | Martin Armstrong

Here is the Economic Confidence Model at the very high end to all the questions about how high up the fractal structure can be defined.

 Martin Armstrong's Fractal Design of Time.

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032.95. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD. So here, too, this is a wave where the government will fight very hard to hold control, for that is the dominant 309.6 character, while the final wave on the next fractal level is a Private Wave of 51.6 years. This is the people fighting back as they lose confidence in the government. The two forces are at war right now. The worse the environment becomes for the people, the more authoritarian governments will become. Each wave of 8.6 also alters back and forth between Public and Private.

This is why I warn it is time to try to reduce the amplitude by waking up. We achieved this briefly with the Age of Enlightenment. Government then fought back and reclaimed control. We replaced monarchy with ministers. Nothing changed otherwise. We will fight the good fight once again and seek to triumph with a new age of Enlightenment. Will we win? Who knows. But we have to try. What comes after 2032 is a private wave – the opportunity to reclaim our liberty once again. Here is that chart.

 

 » It has been propaganda that we live under a democracy. The people have no right to vote on critical issues.  

Republics historically are the most corrupt forms of government. «

The last Sixth Wave marked the peak of the Roman Empire. Every historian has drawn the line to mark the beginning of the Fall of Rome took place with the death of Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Talk about almost getting to a new age, he sent an ambassador to China. This has been revealed by books from the Tang Dynasty. The East and West knew each other. Merchants ran the trade routes. This would have been the beginning of a major global economy back in 180 AD. Marcus’ death ended the golden age and expansion of the world economy. He was followed by his crazy son, Commodus. With the death of Commodus, the Praetorian Guard actually auctioned off the position of emperor to the highest bidder. Since he was just nuts, they got to rule Rome, and it went to the heads, to the point that corruption was in the open.

 

» Our idea of managing our political-social-economy. «

I have told the story of how I used to meet with people who wanted to run for President at the behest of those in the Republican Party. Then in 1999, I was asked to fly down to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr. I was told that this was different. They had me meet with various potential candidates to vet them out and give my opinion if they could handle the job from understanding the global economy. So what was different with Bush, Jr., was the fact they told me he was “stupid.” I was shocked. I asked why would you want to make someone stupid president? I was told he had the “name.” That is when they asked me to be the chief economist in the White House. I declined, for our business was way too global for that. They told me the plan was to surround him with good people. That is how Cheney took the role of President and moved his office in the White House.

 » The 8.6 year frequency is fractal in nature and it may indeed 

work from different dates other than the formal dates we show on the ECM. «

I have been told similar traits with Obama. He was told they would let him play with the social stuff but leave everything else to them. The bureaucracy tasted power under Bush, and they were not about to let that go. Obama missed more than 60% of his daily security briefings. Biden is, at best, a part-time president who no one believes is truly running the nation because he simply is not mentally capable of doing so. This is the Praetorian Guard running the world.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (June 4, 2024) - The Major Fractal Wave of the Economic Confidence Model & 2032.95.

 

» By no means try to use this for a individual market unless that market lines up with the ECM. «

Happy Pi Day | Martin A. Armstrong

Perhaps it was my fate or destiny since I grew up in Maple Shade, New Jersey, with the house address of 314 South Lippincott Avenue. What a coincidence.

 

 
When I discovered that list of international panics and divided simply 26 into 224 years, it came out with 8.6153. Multiply that by 365 days = 3,144. Suddenly, the accuracy of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) made sense – it was Pi, the magic number that the Egyptians even used to build the Pyramids.

 

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armtrong (Mar 14, 2024) - Happy Pi Day.

 

See also:

Martin A. Armstrong (2015) - The Fractal Design of Time.

 

  2024.350  =  2024 May 07 (Tue)  =  Major High

 [The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.]

2024 Economic Forecast │ James Kim

The interest rate changes in the United States trigger international capital movements, which are reflected in the Dow Jones Index, an indicator of such movements. To predict future economic conditions, understanding the trends in U.S. interest rates and the Dow Jones Index can provide insights into both the U.S. and global economies. To comprehend the economic situation from 2023 to 2024, it's observable that the patterns of interest rates and Dow Jones Index during 2006-2007 are similar. The period when the U.S. continuously raises interest rates and then freezes them, leading up to a rate cut, is known as the 'Goldilocks' period, which is typically a phase of a major bull market in stocks.

 

 To aid your understanding, I have specified concrete dates. 

Think of these as reference points, focusing on the patterns and the dates surrounding them.

 

 When interest rates are frozen consecutively three times (Point (d)), the market gains confidence that there will be no further rate hikes. Similar to 2006, when three consecutive rate freezes led to breaking historical highs, the same pattern was observed on December 13, 2023, breaking the historical high of January 4, 2022 (Point (f) ).

 

The peak of the U.S. economy is predicted to be on May 8, 2024, with the U.S. stock market artificially creating a peak for about six months (until the first rate cut). The global economy, with the decline of the U.S. dollar, moves towards a strong bull market in individual countries. The magic of exchange rates creates opportunities for profit through currency differences and stock appreciation, leading to a surge in global stock markets. Global and U.S. stock markets are expected to start declining simultaneously around November 15, 2024 (just before the U.S. rate cut). At this point, the U.S. economy would have been declining for about six months from its peak, while the global economy, excluding the U.S., remains stable.

I believe there are signs of a weakening U.S. economy, which will lead to the start of interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Eventually, about a year later on December 12, 2025, both the U.S. and the world will face an economic crisis. The peak of the U.S. economy is expected in May, while the global economy is predicted to peak in the second quarter of 2025 [...] I hope you too can achieve favorable outcomes during this time.

(1. - 4.) On August 2, 2023, through my posts, I predicted the breaking of the historical high of the Dow Jones Index and the freezing of U.S. interest rates (the Goldilocks period). I forecasted the peak of the stock market, the timing of the economic crisis, and all phases up to the great depression in 2032. By looking at my past Twitter posts, one can see that the results are following the same patterns exactly as predicted. My posts will be helpful to understand these patterns: 

(1.) Prediction of the 13th and 14th Cycles of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This post outlines my predictions for the 13th and 14th cycles of the U.S. stock market and its potential trajectory. 

(2.) Forecast for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle (Great Depression Period) of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): In this tweet, I discuss the ongoing 15th cycle and its connection to the anticipated great depression period.
(3.) Prediction for the 14th and Current 15th Cycle of the U.S. Stock Market (August 2, 2023): This tweet further elaborates on my predictions for the 14th and current 15th cycle of the U.S. stock market.
(4.) Estimation of the Dow Jones Lowest Point, Interest Rate Freeze (Goldilocks Period), and Major Bull Market (August 3, 2023): This post from August 3, 2023, predicts the lowest point of the Dow Jones, the freezing of interest rates (Goldilocks period), and the onset of a major bull market.

Quoted from:

James Kim @ X (Jan 2, 2024) - 2024 Economic Forecast.

The Name of God & The Rule of Nine | Martin A. Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - Just about everyone knows the "666" omen, but strikingly, most do not know the number of the name the Jews gave to God - "Jehovah." If we use the old Hebrew system we can find the number of God. Yod = 10, He = 5, and Van = 6. Therefore, the name of God in Hebrew He Van He Yod equals 5 + 6 + 5 + 10 = 26. The number of the name assigned to God by the Jews is 26.

 

 

I explained that I discovered the 8.6 year cycle by adding up the total number of financial panics between 1683 and 1907, which created a time-space of 224 years. I found that there were 26 financial panics and then divided that into the 224 years to obtain an average. That produced the 8.6 year frequency. Only when it began to project to specific days, then I decided to study much deeper. There is, the fact that it appeared to be intricately complex running concurrent with countless other cyclical behavior be it natural or man himself in a sort of time-space tube created by an interdependent, self-referral field network whereby, the output of each and every iteration becomes the input for the next generation perpetuating patterns of order in such a dynamic structure, that one cannot see the order of the whole for the mask of superficial chaos. There simply is yet a separate and distinct core frequency of 26 running through the center of the field causing not merely Phase-Transitions, but also Phase-Shifts and Phase-Cancellations when two cycles indeed collide of equal yet opposite forces.

1929 - 1955 - 1981 - 2007

The above sequence of dates provides a simple demonstration of the interesting relationship of 26 to the Economic Confidence Model. The high on the last Private 51.6 year Wave was 1929.75. If we simply take the annual count of 26, we produce the above time series, The great expansion of U.S. debt began from the 1955 post-war target where spending without regard to maintaining the ratio to gold may safely be defined as the start of the perpetual. spending. The next target 1981, was the high of the Public Wave of 51.6 years marked by the peak in interest rates and the open battle against inflation. This brings us to 2007, where the model has correctly given the high 2007.15 that targeted to the day, the start of this economic decline.

Previously, we looked at two time series, one beginning from 1775 marking the start of the American Revolution, contrasted with 1788 that marked the beginning of the federal government with the Constitution. The differential between these two series is half the 26 cycle - 13 years. It is twice 26 that produces the number 52 that we will see is central to the Maya, but was also the observation of the commodity cycle noted by Kondratieff - the Russian economist. We can see that the timing interval of 26 is a critical and interesting number to say the least.

 

Another kabala number of mystery has been attributed to the famous Gaon from Vilna who discovered that the Hebrew
word for truth (taf-mem-aleph) produces the number taf = 400, mem = 40, and aleph = 1 added together 441 = 9.
It was argued that God created the world based upon truth, which is the number 9. If you take any number greater
than 9, add the individual numbers, and subtract the original, we end up with a number divisible by 9.

 

Whether 26 is the "God Cycle" is interesting. Hipparchus of Rhodes observed around 150 BC that the equinoxes moved with time. This is where the Sun's path crosses the celestial equator. He realized that these were not fixed in time and space but traveled in a cyclical manner. The movement was extremely slow in a westerly direction. This amounted to but less than 2° in about 150 years. This slow movement is known as the "Precession of the Equinoxes" and requires generations to even observe. It is less than 2° movement every 150 years, bringing this also to a virtual number of close to 26,000 years to complete one cycle.

Quoted from:
Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - It's just Time

 

See also:
Martin A. Armstrong (1979) - The Fractal Design of Time
Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028

Martin A. Armstrong (2022) - ArmstrongEconomics - researching the past to predict the future

 

The Fractal Design of Time | Martin A. Armstrong

 

 

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.

• The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
• It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
• This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
• The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
• The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.

The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.

US Stocks May Double into 2017 | Martin Armstrong

HERE
This is in line with the Lunar Node Projection for the US-Economy:
HERE & HERE 

Martin Armstrong (06/18/2015) - 18,500 [in the DJIA] has capped the US stock market for right now, so we're not breaking out. We'll get through that. The next level is 23,000 [after a consolidation in fall 2015]. If we get through that area ... then you're looking at the final phase transition that will probably take us into 2017 where, yes, the stock market can double.

[...] With bond yields pushed down to all-time lows, bond prices are now at all-time highs. As rates eventually start to move up, large investors will try to prevent losses by shifting into other areas with US assets, particularly stocks and real estate, serving as the most likely destination.

Future Ups and Downs into 2065 | Samuel Benner’s Prophecies

Samuel Benner was a farmer from Ohio who first published his prophecies about price fluctuations in 1875. The 19th century was the time of Laplacian probability, Gaussian distributions, Peano curves and Cantor set. While mathematicians were looking for structures in mathematics, Samuel Benner was studying and writing about a model of ‘Time’ to forecast the future. He lived in an era of Axe Houghton Indices, the time when the Chicago Board of Trade was established and agricultural commodity trading was active business. Society was busy with agriculture and expanding railroads. This is why his workings were based on pig iron, corn, cotton and hogs. Along with agriculture came the essential science of weather forecasting. What years would be dry or wet? When to expect years of heat, storm and cold? Agricultural statistics was compiled and used to establish demand and supply patterns. It was then 140 years back Benner wrote that the future cannot be calculated based on agricultural statistics. Statistics compilation would remain always poor, irregular, manipulable, undependable and non predictive. For Benner the axiom “history repeats itself” implies a cyclical movement in human affairs, and as it is a generally received opinion that everything moves in cycles, especially in nature. 

 

Prediction of the future can only be done by studying the past. History repeats itself with marvelous accuracy in detail from one panic year to another. Samuel Benner was the first to show how history repeated systematically. He was vocal about the cyclicality of financial catastrophes and his model illustrated the crisis' of 1891, 1902, 1910 and even 1929, 1987 and 2003. However, 2009 was a big miss in his set of nested cycles (exactly 20 Lunar Node Cycles after the 1637 Dutch Tulipomania bust). Time according to Benner was a pattern, a rule that did not change because of war, panic or elections. It was relentless in nature. It was periodical and not haphazard. The rule was unchangeable, determinable. Failures in business were connected with ignorance of ‘Time’. Today one can judge Samuel Benner as a farmer or a genius, but that would not change the fact that he was one of the first to see the mathematical hierarchy in ‘Time’. The story of the Benner’s work is intertwined with his personal experiences of bankruptcy. He was a prosperous farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and then wanted to find out about the law of nature. He took the yearly average prices to smoothen the data. When he compared them he saw up and down yearly cycles repeating in a fixed sequence of a large cycle of 18-20-16 years and a small cycle of 9-10-8 years. The cycles low depicted reactions and depressions. According to Benner these were cast iron rules and he referred to them as ‘God in prices’.  

Benner discovered an 11 year cycle in corn and hog prices with alternating peaks at 4 and 6 year intervals. He also discovered an 11 year cycle peak in cotton prices and a 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 11, 9 and 7 years and peaks in a sequential order of 8, 9 and 10 years. He described a 54 Year Panic Cycle which arose from panics every 16, 18, 20 years, with this series repeating every 54 years, or as he explains, “it takes panics 54 years in their order to make a revolution or to return to the same order”. His book is one of the first examples of the development of cycles and periodicity theory in financial and commodity markets and was very popular amongst bankers and business men of the late 1800’s. His cycles and numerical sequences were effective throughout the 20th century, and can still be found to be operative today, predicting financial prices. Theorists will notice the similarities between his 11 year cycle and the sunspot cycle also of 11 years, something which has even been studied in current times by the Federal Reserve. Whether Benner was knowledgeable about this direct influence or not, he did make a connection through the weather and climate, and was likely aware of the earlier work on sunspots by Herschel, Jevons and others.

Benner never fully explained the basis of his cycle theories, but did state: "The cause producing the periodicity and length of these cycles may be found in our solar system … It may be a meteorological fact that Jupiter is the ruling element in our price cycles of natural productions; while also it may be suggested that Saturn exerts an influence regulating the cycles in manufacture and trade." Further, Uranus and Neptune: "may send forth an electric influence affecting Jupiter, Saturn and, in turn, the Earth … When certain combinations are ascertained which produce one legitimate invariable manifestation from an analysis of the operations of the combined solar system, we may be enabled to discover the cause producing our price cycles, and the length of their duration."

Later the larger 54 year cycle was also discussed in detail by Russian economist Kondratiev in 1925. Edward R. Dewey, Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, assessed Benner's pig iron price forecasts over a 60 year period. Remarkably, he regarded this cycle as showing a gain - loss ratio of 45 to 1, which was “the most notable forecast of prices in existence”.

Extending and updating Samuel Benner's cycles and correlating them with more recent US-stock market prices, pointed to the low in 2003, the high in 2010, and the minor crisis in 2011. This would then be followed by a rising stock market into 2018 and a depression in 2021. 

The Forecaster | Martin Armstrong

This is a feature documentary about Martin Armstrong a financial mastermind who used the number pi in the nineties to predict economic turning points with precision. He was named economist of the decade. The Japanese just called him Mr. YEN. When the FBI stormed his offices in 1999 forcing him to hand over his secret model a few days later he was incarcerated without a trial. He was released from prison in 2011 and agreed to be the focal point of this movie - a piece on the Sovereign Debt Crisis we are facing. 

Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy. More HERE & HERE & HERE

HERE

The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028 | Martin A. Armstrong

We have now crossed that peak in the current wave — 2007.15 (February 27th, 2007). We can see that the Economic Confidence Model projects out beyond my life expectancy and it will function long after I am gone as it did long before I was born. These 8.6 year waves that reflect the Business Cycle are calculated by taking the per cent of 365 days for that year. For example, 2015.75 produces (.75 x 365) that is 273.75 days into that year = October 1st, 2015. The low for this current economic debacle should be 2011.45 = June 13th, 2011.

 

The minor mid wave turning points break down as the first leg being 2.15 years or a quarter of the 8.6 year wave. The next quarter wave is typically broken into half again creating two 1.075 year weaves. We can see that in the current wave, the mid-wave turning points were 1908.225 (March 23, 2008) and 2009.3 (March 19th, 2009). Typically, these waves do not produce specific turning points to the day as is the case at the major turning points. This is due to the fact that internally there is yet another layer of activity, the 8.6 month cycle that constitute 6 weeks within each leg of the 8.6 year cycle. Again we see the structure following groupings of 6 units. This 8.6 month level of activity constitutes 37.33 weeks. There is yet another layer beneath this calculated in 8.6 week intervals, followed by still another 8.6 days, hours, minutes and believe it or not seconds.

 

2002.850  =  2000-Nov-06 (Mon)  =  Major Low
2005.000  =  2005-Jan-01 (Sat)  =  High
2006.075  =  2006-Jan-28 (Sat)  =  Low
2007.150  =  2007-Feb-24 (Sat)  =  Major High
2008.225  =  2008-Mar-23 (Sun)  =  Low
2009.300  =  2009-Apr-20 (Mon)  =  High
2011.450  =  2011-Jun-14 (Tue)  =  Major Low
2013.600  =  2013-Aug-08 (Thu)  =  High
2014.675  =  2014-Sep-04 (Thu)  =  Low
2015.750  =  2015-Oct-01 (Thu)  =  Major High
2016.825  =  2016-Oct-28 (Fri)  =  Low
2017.900  =  2017-Nov-25 (Sat)  =  High
2020.050  =  2020-Jan-19 (Sun)  =  Major Low
2022.200  =  2022-Mar-15 (Tue)  =  High
2023.275  =  2023-Apr-11 (Tue)  =  Low
2024.350  =  2024-May-07 (Tue)  =  Major High
2025.425  =  2025-Jun-05 (Thu)  =  Low
2026.500  =  2026-Jul-02 (Thu)  =  High
2028.650  =  2028-Aug-25 (Fri)  =  Major Low

 

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a computer model that analyzes the global economy by tracking capital flows and concentration, providing a macro long-term perspective of when shifts in confidence are possible that could lead to notable economic events as demonstrated over the course of history.

• The model consists of cycle waves that vary in length, from shorter to longer, and build up over time; for example, 8.6 to 51.6 to 309.6 years.
• It examines these cycle waves to discover when they are set to culminate, reflecting a possible shift in market confidence at that point in time.
• This shift in confidence is reflected by capital flows and concentration.
• The longer the cycle wave, the greater the magnitude of the shift in confidence.
• The dates in the model that reflect possible shifts are referred to as ECM turning points.

The ECM does not track or forecast individual financial instruments, securities, or markets.

 

See also:

Martin A. Armstrong (2009) - Understanding the Real Economy.
Martin A. Armstrong (1979) - The Fractal Design of Time.