Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set out to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy.
» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains
between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses! «
Edward R. Dewey, 1967.
In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:
A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).
» Periods When to Make Money « - The original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co.
The diagram was apparently compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but Samuel Benner did not attribute it to him in 1875.
The "Periods When to Make Money" chart, attributed to George Tritch’s Hardware Co. in 1872, is a fascinating artifact in the history of financial cycle analysis. This chart, often referred to as the Benner Cycle due to Samuel Benner’s 1875 publication "Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices," attempts to predict market cycles by identifying periods of panic, prosperity, and low prices. The controversy over its origin—whether it was truly Tritch’s creation in 1872 or popularized by Benner in 1875—highlights an interesting debate about attribution and influence in early financial forecasting.
Tritch’s business card, reportedly compiled in 1872, predates Benner’s book, suggesting he may have been the original architect of the cycle model. The chart categorizes market phases into three types: panic years (A), good times for selling (B), and hard times for buying (C), with cycles of 16/18/20 years for panics, 8/9/10 years for peaks, and shorter cycles for bottoms. Its simplicity and alleged predictive power, reportedly aligning with events like the Great Depression, the Dot-com Bubble, and the 2008 Financial Crisis, have kept it relevant among some investors, despite skepticism about its scientific basis.
- https://vasconomics.com/post/periods_when_to_make_money/
- https://medium.com/the-crypto-kiosk/decoding-george-tritchs-periods-when-to-make-money-200f6e94aca8
- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314417628_Benner_Cycles_the_956_year_grid
However, Benner’s 1875 publication, which expanded on these ideas and tied them to commodity price cycles (e.g., 11-year cycles for corn and pigs, 27-year cycles for pig iron), gained more prominence, possibly overshadowing Tritch’s earlier work. Benner’s focus on solar cycles and planetary influences, as noted in some analyses, adds a layer of financial astrology that critics argue lacks empirical rigor. This has led to mixed views: some praise the chart’s historical accuracy, claiming a 7,939% return from 1872 to 2020, while others, like David McMinn, note its declining reliability post-1870s, with false predictions in 1965 and 1999.
- https://news.abplive.com/business/benner-cycle-definition-model-accurate-market-prophecy-for-over-100-years-is-it-really-the-tool-investors-need-1590310
- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314417628_Benner_Cycles_the_956_year_grid
- https://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2022/10/periods-when-to-make-money-benner-cycle.html
The lack of attribution by Benner to Tritch raises questions about intellectual credit, possibly due to the chart’s informal distribution on a business card rather than a formal publication. This oversight, intentional or not, underscores the chaotic nature of early financial theory development, where ideas often spread through informal channels. The chart’s enduring appeal lies in its simplicity and cyclical view of markets, resonating with those seeking patterns in economic chaos, but its reliance on outdated assumptions (e.g., planetary influences) and inconsistent accuracy suggest it’s more a historical curiosity than a reliable tool. Modern investors are better served by combining such models with robust data-driven strategies, as the chart’s performance significantly trails a simple buy-and-hold approach ($5,432 vs. $62,414 from 1904 to 2023).
- https://vasconomics.com/post/periods_when_to_make_money/
- https://ironpointfin.com/debunking-periods-when-to-make-money-alternatives/
Ultimately, the Tritch-Benner saga reflects the human desire to predict markets, but it also serves as a cautionary tale about over-relying on simplistic models. The debate over its origins adds intrigue, but without clearer evidence—say, a verified copy of Tritch’s 1872 business card—it remains an open question whether Tritch was the true pioneer or Benner the effective popularizer.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BP4VdrcrhcU
Reference: