2026 High in the Benner Cycle | "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds"

Samuel Benner (1832–1913), a once-prosperous farmer in Lawrence County, Ohio, whose wealth was destroyed by a devastating hog cholera epidemic and the Panic of 1873, devoted the remainder of his life to identifying recurring patterns in economic booms and busts. Through exhaustive analysis of commodity prices—specifically provisions (pork products such as bacon, ham, mess pork, lard, and salted pork), live hogs, corn, cotton, and pig iron (later also wheat and railroad-stocks)—he published "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1876, a work that formed the basis for his annual forecasts through 1907.

  

 » Periods When to Make Money. « The original 1872 business card of the George Tritch Hardware Co. in Denver, Colorado—which was copyrighted in 1883 and 1897—is the focus of an ongoing controversy: Was it genuinely created by Tritch, and simply plagiarized and popularized by Benner four years later in 1876?

 
Benner’s approach was empirical, grounded in price data from 1780 to 1872, and used to extend projections far into the future by emphasizing recurring cycles in commodity prices and business activity. He treated these cycles not merely as descriptive patterns but as prescriptive guidance, advising investors on when to buy during "hard times" and when to sell during "good times."

 

Benner's time-price model identified nested peaks and troughs in commodity prices, agricultural yields, and broader economic conditions. Central to his framework were the following patterns:

■ 27-Year Cycle in Pig Iron and Cotton Prices: Analyzing data from 1833 to 1899, Benner observed high prices following an ascending arithmetic progression of 8, 9, and 10 years, repeating every 27 years. Low prices, conversely, followed a descending series of 9 and 7 years. This cycle captured the volatility in industrial commodities like pig iron, which Benner viewed as a bellwether for economic health, given iron's role in manufacturing and infrastructure.
■ 11-Year Cycle in Corn and Hog Prices: Beginning in 1836, this cycle alternated between 5- and 6-year sub-periods, reflecting fluctuations in agricultural staples. Benner broke it into peaks and troughs that aligned with seasonal and weather-related disruptions.
■ Business Cycle with 16-18-20 Year Peaks: Extending his commodity analysis, Benner described a broader 11-year business rhythm, characterized by peaks spaced 16, 18, and 20 years apart. Lows coincided with pig iron troughs, while panics occurred at intervals averaging 9 years (7-11-9 pattern, akin to the Juglar cycle). Every third peak aligned roughly every 54 years, echoing longer waves like those later formalized by Nikolai Kondratieff.

 Benner's astronomical time-price cycles theory.

These cycles formed a hierarchical structure: shorter oscillations (5–11 years) drove immediate price swings, while longer ones (27 and 54 years) shaped multi-decade eras of prosperity or contraction. Benner integrated them into a single chart, forecasting "ups and downs" with directives such as "Years of Good Times: High Prices and the Time to Sell" for peaks and "Years of Hard Times: Low Prices and a Good Time to Buy" for troughs.

 

 

 » "B." [2026] Years of Good Times. High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds. « 

For 2025, Benner’s cycle predicted the US stock market driving higher; for 2026, it forecasts a major top: "High Prices and the Time to Sell Stocks and Values of All Kinds" into 2032 ("Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a Good Time to Buy Stocks"). 2026 is marked as a "B" phase year — a peak of high prices and euphoria, often the culmination of a bull market before a shift to downturns. Historical "B" peaks have aligned (often within 1-2 years) with major tops like: 1929 (Great Depression peak), 2000 (dot-com bubble), 2007 (pre-2008 crisis), and others. 

Benner attributed these periodicities to celestial mechanics, positing that solar system dynamics influenced earthly economies. He aligned his 11-year cycle with Jupiter's major equinox, which recurs every 11.86 years—a near-match to observed corn, hog, and business fluctuations from 1836, 1847, 1858, and 1869. Jupiter, in his view, served as the "ruling element" in natural product price cycles, potentially modulated by electromagnetic influences from Uranus and Neptune on Saturn and, in turn, Earth.

This astro-economic perspective echoed earlier hints by English economist William Stanley Jevons, who suggested in 1843 planetary configurations might underpin business cycles but abandoned the idea amid academic opposition. Modern interpretations extend this to lunar phases and solar activity (e.g., nodal precession, sunspot cycles), though Benner's original emphasis remained on observable price data rather than strict astronomy and astrology.

   

Benner's Cycle Forecast for the Period 2015–2035.

In 1948, Edward R. Dewey, director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, updated and reprinted Benner’s work as the Foundation’s "Reprint No. 24". He lauded Benner’s pig-iron forecasts over the 60-year period from 1875 to 1935 for achieving a gain-to-loss ratio of 45:1, deeming it one of the most reliable business charts despite numerous imitations by lesser-known authors. Proponents cite alignments with major events: the cycle's "B" peaks (high-price euphoria phases) approximated the 1929 stock market top preceding the Great Depression, the 2000 dot-com bust, and the 2007 pre-financial crisis summit—often within 1–2 years. 

 

Edward R. Dewey (1967) considered the true length of Benner’s pig iron price cycle to be 9.2 years and thus his "forecast got off the track by one year every five waves. By 1939 his projection was no longer usable."  In 1971 Dewey commented: "Were Benner still alive and issuing yearly supplements to his Prophecies, he probably would have learned all that was necessary to know about cycles of fractional length and would have adjusted later forecasts accordingly." 

However, scrutiny reveals nuances: Benner's original chart, rooted in agriculture (which comprised 53% of the US economy in the 1870s), projected a 1927 high and 1930 low, not the exact 1929–1932 Depression timeline. A sensational 1933 Wall Street Journal article, designed to attract attention, altered Benner’s original cycle dates for dramatic effect, thereby fueling persistent misconceptions (see chart below).

 

 

Martin Armstrong recently contended that Benner’s cycle was more a historical curiosity than a reliable predictive tool, noting that it has been both right and wrong many times: 

 

The claim that Benner’s Cycle predicted the Great Depression is false. The chart [above] that was published in the Wall Street Journal altered Samuel Benner’s cycle, which was based on agriculture. It predicted a high in 1927, not 1929, and the low in 1930, not 1932. Claims that Benner’s work calls for a crash in 2025 are flat-out wrong. His target years would be 2019 and 2035, based on his data, not the altered, fake news published by the Wall Street Journal in 1933.

 

Benner was a farmer. Applying his cycle to the economy today is no longer effective, any more than the Kondratieff Wave. Both were based on the economy, with agriculture being the #1 sector. As the Industrial Revolution unfolded, those cycles remain relevant for commodities, but not the economy. Agriculture, when Benner developed his model, accounted for 53% of the economy. Today it is 3%. If they were alive today, they would have used the services industry. Capital flows are still pointing to the dollar, given the prospect of war and sovereign defaults outside the USA.

Martin Armstrong, August 30, 2025.

 

See also: 

Samuel Benner (1876)  - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. 

What years to make money on pig-iron, hogs, corn, and provisions.  

Samuel Benner (1907)  - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices. 

Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin (1947) - Cycles: The Science of Prediction.

Edward R. Dewey (1967)  - The Case for Cycles.
Edward R. Dewey and Og Mandino (1971) - Cycles: The Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.

LCdr. David Williams (1982) - Financial Astrology.  

TPR (2022) - "Periods When to Make Money": Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low.

The 18 Year Economic Cycle │Akhil Patel

Akhil Patel was the special guest presenter at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles' June 3 'Masters Working Group' interactive session. Author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage', Patel discusses how the 18 year cycle affects the markets and how it can transform investing strategies. Patel is one of the world’s leading experts in economic, financial, and property cycles. He has been working for over a decade to produce unique research that combines an in- depth understanding of business, real estate, and stock market cycles. 

 

Reference:
Akhil Patel (June 4, 2024) - Significance of the 18-Year Cycle. (video)

 

See also:
The 18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle.  

2024 in W.D. Gann's Financial Time Table.

"Periods When to Make Money" | Benner Cycle Projection into 2023 Major Low

Samuel Benner was a prosperous American farmer who was wiped out financially by the 1873 panic and a hog cholera epidemic. In retirement, he set out to establish the causes and timing of fluctuations in the economy.

 

» If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains 

between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses! «

 Edward R. Dewey, 1967.

Samuel Benner Cycle Forecast 2015–2035.

In 1875 he published a book called "Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices" forecasting commodity prices for the period 1876 to 1904. Many - not all - of these forecasts were fairly accurate. The Benner Cycle includes:

A (upper line): "Years in which Panics have occurred and will occur again." A 54 year cycle alternating every 18, 20 and 16 years.
B (middle line): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds." Cycles alternating every 8, 9 and 10 years.
C (lower line): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices, and a good time to buy Stocks, 'Corner Lots', Goods, etc, and hold till the 'Boom' reaches the years of good times; then unload". A 27 year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 7, 11, 9 years and peaks in the order 8, 9, 10 years (B - middle line).

 

Benner's cycle projections align with the latest analysis of the "Foundation for the Study of Cycles" and are pointing to a major stock market low in the US in 2023. David Hickson's Hurst cycle analysis projects this low to March of 2023 and Martin Armstrong to April 11, 2023 (Tue).

 

 » Periods When to Make Money «  - The original business card of George Tritch Hardware Co. 

The diagram was apparently compiled by George Tritch in 1872, but Samuel Benner did not attribute it to him in 1875.

 

The "Periods When to Make Money" chart, attributed to George Tritch’s Hardware Co. in 1872, is a fascinating artifact in the history of financial cycle analysis. This chart, often referred to as the Benner Cycle due to Samuel Benner’s 1875 publication "Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices," attempts to predict market cycles by identifying periods of panic, prosperity, and low prices. The controversy over its origin—whether it was truly Tritch’s creation in 1872 or popularized by Benner in 1875—highlights an interesting debate about attribution and influence in early financial forecasting.

Tritch’s business card, reportedly compiled in 1872, predates Benner’s book, suggesting he may have been the original architect of the cycle model. The chart categorizes market phases into three types: panic years (A), good times for selling (B), and hard times for buying (C), with cycles of 16/18/20 years for panics, 8/9/10 years for peaks, and shorter cycles for bottoms. Its simplicity and alleged predictive power, reportedly aligning with events like the Great Depression, the Dot-com Bubble, and the 2008 Financial Crisis, have kept it relevant among some investors, despite skepticism about its scientific basis.

 

However, Benner’s 1875 publication, which expanded on these ideas and tied them to commodity price cycles (e.g., 11-year cycles for corn and pigs, 27-year cycles for pig iron), gained more prominence, possibly overshadowing Tritch’s earlier work. Benner’s focus on solar cycles and planetary influences, as noted in some analyses, adds a layer of financial astrology that critics argue lacks empirical rigor. This has led to mixed views: some praise the chart’s historical accuracy, claiming a 7,939% return from 1872 to 2020, while others, like David McMinn, note its declining reliability post-1870s, with false predictions in 1965 and 1999.

 

The lack of attribution by Benner to Tritch raises questions about intellectual credit, possibly due to the chart’s informal distribution on a business card rather than a formal publication. This oversight, intentional or not, underscores the chaotic nature of early financial theory development, where ideas often spread through informal channels. The chart’s enduring appeal lies in its simplicity and cyclical view of markets, resonating with those seeking patterns in economic chaos, but its reliance on outdated assumptions (e.g., planetary influences) and inconsistent accuracy suggest it’s more a historical curiosity than a reliable tool. Modern investors are better served by combining such models with robust data-driven strategies, as the chart’s performance significantly trails a simple buy-and-hold approach ($5,432 vs. $62,414 from 1904 to 2023).

  

Reference:

 George Tritch (1872) - "Periods When to Make Money" - Business Card of George Tritch Hardware Co.

Samuel Benner (1884) - Benner's prophecies of future ups and downs in prices (3rd. Ed.; original 1875)

 W.D. Gann (1909) - Financial Time Table 1784 - 2102

Edward R. Dewey (1967) - The Case for Cycles 

Elwynn Taylor (2004) - Crop Weather Cycles: Myth or Reality?

Martin A. Armstrong (2008) - The 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle 2002 - 2028

Charles Capriole (2020) - George Tritch Strategy from 1872 has a 90% hit rate
David McMinn (2022) - Benner Cycles & the 9/56 year grid

David Hickson (Oct 3, 2022) - The Next 20 Weeks - S&P 500 - Hurst Cycles Market Update
Lars von  Thienen (Oct 9, 2022) - Market Cycles Report - Cycles of Financial Crisis using long term static cycle models.

TPR (2015) - Future Ups and Downs into 2065. Samuel Benner’s Prophecies.

 

 The Tritch/Benner Strategy generated a return of 7,939% from 1872 to 2020.

 

See also:
TPR (December 1, 2025)  - 2026 High in the Benner Cycle: "Time to Sell Stocks and Values of all Kinds".

SPX vs 4.5 Degree Steps of Lunar Node to Lunar Apogee | 80th Harmonic

Upcoming aspects in this 18 Year Cycle:
Feb 04 (Sat) = 85.5 degrees, Mar 14 (Tue) =  90 degrees, Apr 13 (Thu), May 07 (Sun), May 26 (Fri),
Jun 19 (Mon), Jul 16 (Sun), Aug 22 (Tue), Sep 25 (Mon), Oct 21 (Sat), Nov 12 (Sun), Dec 02 (Sat),
Dec 26 (Tue), 2018 Jan 29 (Mon) = 144 degrees. See also HERE

SPX vs 15 Degree Steps of Lunar Node to Lunar Apogee | 24th Harmonic

Upcoming aspects in this 18 Year Cycle:
Jan 12 (Thu) = 165 degrees, Mar 14 (Tue) = 180 degrees, Apr 28 (Fri), Jun 04 (Sun), Jul 16 (Sun),
Sep 17 (Sun), Oct 28 (Sat), Dec 02 (Sat), Jan 15, 2018 (Mon).

David McMinn (2016): 9/56 Year Cycle: Lunar North Node - Apogee Angles [5 p.]

DJIA vs 18 Year Cycle | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Nov 16, 2016) - The peak of the 18 year cycle should be
expected sometimes in late January early February 2017 (see also HERE)

Share Prices from 1509 to 2016 | Tides in the Affairs of Men

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

William Shakespeare | Julius Caesar: Act 4, Scene 3, 218 – 224.

High Resolution *.pdf HERE | Source: HERE

The Pattern of US Bankruptcies | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 22, 2016) - I found an interesting pattern in the Gold Miner's index. I realized that at the beginning of the previous two Kondratieff waves the US had defaulted on their obligations. This is the reason why a human brain is superior to spectral analysis, we tend to spot patterns earlier. In 1933 the US Treasury was official declared bankrupt after the emergency banking act was voted into law by congress. "The Emergency Banking Act succeeded in abrogating America’s gold standard and hypothecated all property found within the United States to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank." This bankruptcy occurred after world war one as visible on the picture above. The Vietnam war was the culprit of the second American bankruptcy with the closing of the Gold window in 1971 by president Nixon. So much money was printed to fund the war that there was no way the US could redeem holders of US dollar with Gold at the pegged rate of $35 an ounce. We once again have the same pattern recurring at the time of writing. We had the Iraq/Afghanistan war the debt of which has become to big of a burden to service and history will once again repeat with yet another bankruptcy in a few short years. This will obviously have a devastating impact on the entire world since US Treasuries are the largest single asset that people own world wide. I wonder how China will react to such a bankruptcy but I guess only time will tell. I am so certain that this is going to occur not only because of the pattern that we see on the Gold Miner's index but that of Donald Trump's upcoming presidency. 

I analyzed all the similar cyclical circumstances and under all of them the president of the United States was a republican. Those cyclical circumstances include 1861, 1881, 1971 and 2001. This gives us reason to believe that without question the next president of the United States will be Donald J. Trump. We can also look at Hillary Clinton's history to discern if she is likely to make it to the White House. First, We know that the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 54 month wave saw Hillary Clinton lose in the primaries against Obama. We also know that she lost against Obama once again in the similar cyclical position in terms of the 9 year cycle. We also know that she left the White House in the similar cyclical circumstance in terms of the 18 year cycle. Now that we are certain that Donald J Trump will win the election we can combine that with what we have discerned from the Gold Miner's index with his history of Bankruptcies. Donald Trump filed for bankruptcy a total of 6 times the last of which was in 2009. W.D. Gann said that the highest correlations occur with the most recent similar cyclical circumstance. The 2009 low is expected to reoccur in 2017 and hence we can expect a bankrupt United States government before the end of next year or the year after at the latest.

Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office (HERE)

Financial Crisis and Market Panics | From 1500 to the Present

Source: @Stock_Trend_Chg

German DAX: Gloom, Boom and Doom | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 02, 2016) - There is no question in most commentator's minds that the growth in Germany has certainly slowed relative to what this great country has enjoyed in the 20th century […] The reason for my post about Germany is because the first domino to fall in the upcoming financial calamity seems to be Deutsche Bank […] The upcoming calamity is not going to be like 2008 which was merely a correction of the 18 year cycle. The decline is likely […] of the 324 year cycle and will make 2008 seem like a tiny little hick up within the unraveling of a much larger cycle correction.

[…] The German DAX is likely to not only decline but have an outright collapse of a magnitude not witnessed in our lives. The S&P/DAX ratio is in favor of the S&P which suggests that we are likely to see a larger decline in Germany. 

German Stocks In Trend Limbo
Source: Dana Lyons' Tumblr.

Dubai Financial Market Index: 70% Decline Expected | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Oct 01, 2016) - As visible the immediate projection for the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) is a similar catastrophe as 2008! This would mean that the money to be spent on the new projects and on the infrastructure for the Expo 2020 is certainly not enough to keep the economy going. Our conservative projection is a 70% decline from current levels despite all the money being spent. The world expo in Dubai will occur at a time when the global economy will be at distress and hence revenues will likely not make up for the costs of hosting the event and will most likely lead to another Dubai debt crisis. 

 

In April 2006 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presented the above close-up of two "Skyscraper" tip-offs [Malaysia's Petronas Towers and Taiwan's Taipei 101] and wrote: "Everything points to a similar fate in Dubai", and that Burj Dubai would "open its doors in the aftermath of the bull market that gave rise to its creation".

New Insights in Commodities | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Jul 1, 2016) - The first chart is a synthetic chart of commodities. The way it was constructed was by isolating the second 18 year cycle of three 54 year cycle. The reason why I extracted the second 18 year cycle is because this is the cycle we are in right now in terms of commodities hence it should be correlated more with its counterpart in past 54 year cycles. I have also altered the length of the cycles to match the current average length of the 18 year cycle which is approximately 14.4 years. I then combined those cycles together in order to get a continuous series so I can isolate the cycle via spectral analysis and run neural network models on this particular position of the Kondratieff wave. The indicator that you see above is a neural network model with an 14.4 year cycle used as an input and the detrended zigzag as the output. This indicator's turning point should mimic those in the future provided that no significant changes occur to the length of the nominal 18 year wave. The second chart depicts the dates more clearly.

It is worth mentioning that the 14.4 year cycle with 4 harmonics was used as the input rather than just one harmonic, the reason for this was to aid us in depicted the peaks and troughs of the cycles smaller than the 14.4 year wave. As is visible on the chart above, we seem to have a clear path in the CRB index until late 2017. The projection also suggests that 2018 is likely to be a bad year for commodities. This correction should then be followed by a move into 4th quarter of 2020 followed by a correction to 2022 and so on (third chart).

In the neural network model below the price chart is an up percentage move indicator (fourth chart). It is calculated by having the cycle as an input and measuring the position of moves of over 7% a month and projecting something similar for the future of the current cycle. The likelihood of large percentage months on a closing basis is greatest from here going into mid 2019. Hence capital is best allocated in the commodity market now rather than chase the move after most of the large percentage gains have already been realized (fourth chart).

This indicator (fourth chart) is a forecast of the volatility index indicator using the same input as the charts above. It seems evident that the likelihood of high volatility is greatest from now going into 2020. This would mean that the purchase of call options are likely to be a better play than their sale in the upcoming environment. Trading in expectation of low volatility will probabalisticly lead to a loss going into 2020.

CHF Long Against EUR + USD | EUR/USD to Double | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Ferghaly's latest cyclic analysis of currencies searches for possibilities to long against the USD in the upcoming
environment. EUR and USD are likely to perform a continued, maybe drastic devaluation towards the CHF into 2019.
Then the recovery rally of the EUR is expected to last into late 2023 (HERE + HERE)

In this 18 Year Cycle the EUR should double to the USD (HERE).

The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509 | Ahmed Farghaly

The chart below begins at the millennial low of 1555, followed by a remarkable sequence. I first discovered the 162-year cycle by drawing a trendline between two consecutive lows of the 54-year cycle—specifically, the lows of 1842 and 1896. A break in such a trendline suggests that a larger cycle has turned, and indeed, the trendline was broken during the 1929–1932 crash. 

  

Stock Prices from 1509 to 2013, and 162-Year cycles into 2094.

 

This provided an early indication of the 162-year cycle’s presence. I identified it as a 162-year cycle because the first 54-year cycle used to draw the trendline marked a rally following a bear market that lasted 64 years, making it an ideal starting point. I then confirmed this hypothesis by examining wheat prices and, later, commodity prices, which led me to conclude that the existence of the 162-year cycle is no longer a hypothesis but a fact.

 

 The combined chart offers further evidence of this cycle’s presence. Notice how neatly the first 324-year cycle subdivides into two 162-year cycles, with the trough of the 162-year cycle occurring precisely in the middle of the 324-year cycle. 

 

Upon closer inspection, both 162-year cycles subdivide into three 54-year cycles, reinforcing the conclusion that the Kondratieff wave is the third harmonic of the 162-year cycle. After the trough in 1784, three 54-year cycles followed, ending with the crash of the late 1920s, which marked the trough of the 162-year cycle. 

 

What followed was the greatest bull market in modern history—and it is unfortunate that we are nearing its end. The peak of the last 324-year cycle occurred in the third 18-year cycle of the second 54-year cycle of the second 162-year cycle, which is where we find ourselves today. The likelihood of further translation beyond the previous 324-year cycle is slim, given that the influence of the 972-year cycle has leveled out since the 1930s.

The Elliott Wave structure is also quite interesting. What stands out on the chart is the fact that the entire advance since 1784 featured a fifth-wave extension. Even more intriguing is that the move from 1932 also included a fifth-wave extension. According to wave theory, fifth-wave extensions are typically followed by crashes. Commodities offer excellent examples of this phenomenon, as their dramatic declines often result from a fifth-wave extension.

 

Quoted from:
Ahmed Farghaly (2016) - The 162-Year Cycle in Stocks and Commodities Since 1509.